Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense. 5Q5A Defense. Heuristicland Turnover Margin The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble. Year Margin Int + Fumb + Sacks + Int - Fumb - Sacks - 2007 0.15 (41st) 14 15 2.46(33rd) 14 13 2.17 (67th) 2008 -.83 (104th) 9 11 2.42(33rd) 12 18 1.83 (57th) 2009 -1.00 (115th) 11 5 1.83(68th) 15 13 2.33 (83rd) 2010 -0.77(109th) 12 7 1.38(98th) 15 14 0.85(10th) 2011 +0.54 (25th) 9 20 2.31 (29th) 16 6 1.38 (33rd) 2012 -0.69 (99th) 7 11 1.69 (69th) 19 8 1.38 (28th) 2013 +0.38(33rd) 17 9 1.9 (64th) 13 8 2.77 (109th) 2014 -1.33 (124th) 5 5 2.4 (49th) 18 8 2.2 (63rd) 2015 -0.31 (92nd) 10 2 2.5 (32nd) 10 6 1.4 (28th) 2016 +0.54 (24th) 13 6 3.54(5th) 7 5 1.69 (39th) 2017 -0.31 (90th) 10 7 3.23(8th) 10 11 2.77 (111th) 2018 +0.38 (35th) 11 6 10.5% (3rd) 9 3 5.4% (43rd) 2019 +0 9 11 9.0% (16th) 9 11 6.1% (61st) 2020 +0.38 (35th) 11 6 10.5% (3rd) 9 3 5.4% (43rd) 2021 +0.14 (56th) 8 8 6.8% (62nd) 5 9 3.3% (6th) Despite having extremely good turnover avoidance Michigan was almost dead even a year ago. The QBs and most of the OL return so sack avoidance should still stay high. The pressure number for Michigan is distorted by the inevitability of Hutchinson—most teams did a lot of dinking. I mostly include this in case Michigan is extraordinarily lucky or unlucky and can expect some regression. This doesn't look like much of anything, projection-wise. [After THE JUMP: one sort of alarming switch]