The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy upgrades the inflation and growth forecasts even with a higher assumed path for interest rates. How this can coexist with an unusually large fall in household sector real incomes remains to be seen. Risks to the inflation forecast are also skewed to the upside. If things turn out in line with the RBA’s revised forecasts, they might not need to raise rates again. But the bar to further hikes is clearly lower now; the RBA has almost no margin for further upside surprises.