Instability im joined by my guest james jaharis and watch and hes a former u. S. Diplomat global instability im joined by my guest james jaharis and watch and hes a former u. S. Diplomat and former advisor to the u. S. Senate Republican Leadership in plymouth we have and former advisor to the u. S. Senate Republican Leadership in plymouth we have he is the executive editor of the news website 21st century wired dot com and he is the executive editor of the news website 21st century wired dot com and in norman we cross to Joshua Landis he is director of the center of middle east studies and in norman we cross to Joshua Landis he is director of the center of middle east studies at the university of oklahoma all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and ill at the university of oklahoma all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate josh. Let me go to you 1st in norman all across that was appreciated joshua let me go to you 1st in norman all across the globe we have iraq we have we have lebanon we have chile we have many other plough we have iraq we have we have lebanon we have chile we have many other places around the world plus we have the whole division over braggs it in the u. K. We have bases around the world plus we have the whole division over braggs it in the u. K. We have the division in the United States is a lot of instability out there but i want to talk about this but a division in the United States is a lot of instability out there but i want to talk about the specific country of lebanon just to start it off here a lot of people say that it is the bell west if a country of lebanon just to start it off here a lot of people say that it is the bellwether for the region what happens there 1st is an indication of what possible there are for the region what happens there 1st is an indication of what possibly and probably will happen in a number of other countries in the region how do you reflect upon that go ahead and probably will happen in a number of other countries in the region how do you reflect upon that go ahead joshua well i think youre right lebanon is one of the 3rd most and joshua. Well i think youre right lebanon is one of the is the 3rd most indebted country in the world riad salame a the head of the central bank said it to come dead in country in the world riyadh salah made the head of the central bank said it the country will crash economically if these protests go on much longer but the protests are and you will crash economically if these protests go on much longer but the protests are in many ways i think a reflection of tremendous change anyways i think a reflection of tremendous change in the world a an income gap that is yawning but i mean rich change in the world a an income gap that is yawning but i mean rich and poor and we can see that from across the world you know europe and poor and we can see that from across the world you know europe is the most equal part of the world at 30 percent of wealth is up is the most equal part of the world at 30 percent of wealth is held by the top 10 percent but the middle east is the worst its 61 tell by the top 10 percent but the middle east is the worst its 61 percent of all wealth is held by the top 10 percent now russia and america are her scent of all wealth is held by the top 10 percent now russia and america are hovering in the middle but but its that you know the world has become are hovering in the middle but but its that you know the world is becoming more and more unequal and i think in places where you have bad governments i mean more and more unequal and i think in places where you have bad governments like lebanon iraq egypt syria youre seeing this kind of like lebanon iraq egypt syria youre seeing this kind of explosion of real you know theres not enough jobs theres bad and. Of real you know theres not enough jobs there is bad Government People are robbing at the top and the public feels like theyre getting a Government People are robbing at the top and the public feels like theyre getting a very bad deal and theyre up in arms you know patrick and i did everything that josh very bad deal and theyre up in arms you know patrick and i did everything that joshua to said there but we have these ruling elites as i said in my introduction you know just said there but we have these ruling elites as i said in my introduction you know still doing business as usual the old ways here and this is a real wake up call and one more thing doing business as usual the old ways here and this is a real wake up call and one more thing we look at the disparity in income we can look at the usefulness of a lot of these can we look at the disparity in income we can look at the usefulness of a lot of these countries a lot of people. Under 18 and what prospects do they have here and trees a lot of people. Under 18 and what prospects do they have here but my issue is with governance here whats it going to take because as josh but my issue is with governance here whats it going to take because as joshua pointed out here this is this can explode it is exploding go ahead patrick to have pointed out here this is this can explode it is exploding go ahead patrick you know this is a very difficult topic to kind of get your head around because theres so many you know this is a very difficult topic to kind of get your head around because theres so many uprising zork does so much political unrest happening simultaneously and i think the uprisings or the so much political unrest happening simultaneously and i think theres a tendency by the media by political commentators biocon theres a tendency by the media by political commentators by economists and political economist to try to find some generalized terms of mists and politike. The economist to try to find some generalized terms to sort of describe what its like a global phenomenon i think that was a mistake that the west has to sort of describe whats like a global phenomenon i think that was a mistake that the west made with the arab spring by putting it all into one kind of soup and i think made with the arab spring by putting it all into one kind of soup and i think the reality is you have you have different aspects and different character in the realities you have you have different aspects and different characteristics with each of these there are commonalities however if you want to talk about all sticks with each of these there are commonalities however if you want to talk about overarching frameworks for analyzing this youve got post colonial identity overarching frameworks for analyzing this youve got post colonial identity issues youve got post colonial border mapmaking issues that are still plaguing issues youve got post colonial border mapmaking issues that are still plaguing places like the middle east all the way back from war one youve got neo liberal places like the middle east all the way back from war one youve got neo liberal policies elian lasy of neo liberal policies you have u. S. Meddling policy zealously of neo liberal policies you have u. S. Meddling which would go under the banner of imperialism you could say u. S. Foreign policy which would go under the banner of imperialism you could say u. S. Foreign policy this is also a big big issue how that effects and how it has affected this is also a big big issue how that effects and how it has affected a lot of these countries in regions and you also have the failure of soviet era a lot of these countries in regions and you also have the failure of soviet era collectivist social economic structures and dependency collective. Social economic structures and dependency issues and also dependency issues with all of these countries Economic Issues and also dependency issues with all of these countries economically i mean you look at a country like lebanon they have absolutely nothing that they produce likely i mean you look at a country like lebanon they have absolutely nothing that they produce they import everything theyre economically completely dependent on things like they import everything theyre economically completely dependent on things like foreign aid and an ngo sector economy that sort of drives the middle class foreign aid and in ngo sector economy that sort of drives the middle class in that country thats just one example so its it is very difficult i think hong kong in a country thats just one example so its it is very difficult i think hong kong is also has been mischaracterized by the press because it is also has been mischaracterized by the press because its it wasnt just an uprising to do with class this had it wasnt just an uprising to do with class this had something to do with change this was kind of an imported revolution something to do with change this was kind of an imported revolution this is indicative of the into individualized young middle class this is indicative of the into individualized young middle class Global Citizen dissent and yet that it exists virtually their identity from from some social media and i think that also drives that change drives it but they dont know where to go with this and i think that also drives that change drives it but they dont know where to go with this change well the political organizing isnt there that the ideas arent there to go anywhere with it change well the political all. Going to zing isnt there that the ideas arent there to go anywhere with it you know what you patrick you just did a ph d. On t. V. In about 3 minutes easing to me let me go you know what you patrick you just did a ph d. On t. V. In about 3 minutes easing to me let me go to james now you know i can you know that this has a lot to do with expectation james now you know i can you know that this has a lot to do with expectations and i think that you know patrick was hit the nail on the head there and b. P. Patients and i think that you know patrick was hit the nail on the head there and b. People being so interconnected is well here but you know what what we have here is we we have being so interconnected is well here but you know what what we have here is we we have global elites that are not delivering theyre doing quite well and global elites that are not delivering theyre doing quite well and they dont have any solutions here and at the same time you have a lot of people protesting it they dont have any solutions here and at the same time you have a lot of people protesting in more than protesting out of the fact that they dont see that they have a future here and that more than protesting out of the fact that they dont see that they have a future here and that is a toxic mixture go ahead james it is that i think those are the making of some of that is a toxic mixture go ahead james it is that i think those are the making of some of the factors we see in common with these things and then as we all know that there are disparate causes laughters we see in common with these things and then as we all know that there are disparate causes like in chile its transportation prices in lebanon it was communications and self like in chile its transportation prices in lebanon it was communications and cell phones and whatsapp and things like that i cant help but wonder though peter that phones and whats up and things like that i cant help but wonder though peter that what what more is there that meets the eye i always wonder why for example so what what. Or is there that meets the eye i always wonder why for example some protests in some countries get very favorable treatment from the global protests in some countries get very favorable treatment from the global media which sarah shares the same neo liberal ideology is what these people are supposedly all media which sarah shares the same neo liberal ideology is what these people are supposedly protesting against in many cases and other cases they dont get such good press protesting against in many cases and other cases they dont get such good press for example ive noticed in all of this very few people mention sort of the the grandads for example ive noticed in all of this very few people mention sort of the the granddaddy of all this in the last year or so which is the yellow vests in france which i think very much they have all this in the last year or so which is the yellow vests in france which i think very much were a working class phenomenon against the very things were describing but theyre bad you see were a working class phenomenon against the very things were describing but theyre bad you see because theyre there or theyre there theyre not really theyre the bad kind of populist because theyre there or theyre there or theyre not really theyre the bad kind of populist as they pose to whats wrong kong thats going to go on the populous the kids in hong kong are good ok that in the same pose to whats wrong kong thats going to go on the populous the kids in hong kong are good ok that in the in the yellow vests or are disco yeah exactly theyre depending on who we should say in their yellow vests or are disco yeah exactly theyre depending on who we should say about spain they have it thats right and if the catalogs are protesting what about spain they have it thats right and if the catalogs are protesting with thats good but if spaniards who want spain to Stay Together are protesting well thats bad thats good but if spaniards who want spain to Stay Together are protesting well thats bad so i think theres i cant help but but suspect that theres a there and so i think the. I cant help but suspect that theres a theres a thumb on the scale and terms of our perceptions i keep waiting for a better not already or theres a thumb on the scale and terms of our perceptions i keep waiting for a better not already levy to tell us which ones are the good and which are the bad ones. Levy to tell us which ones are the good which are the bad ones that he can keep his mouth shut as far as im concerned joshua you know. Patrick can keep his mouth shut as far as im concerned joshua you know. Patrick marty mentioned. Us involvement particularly in the middle east here where you know marty mentioned. Us involvement particularly in the middle east here where you know constantly putting pressure on the lebanese government to get rid of hezbollah that is constantly putting pressure on the lebanese government to get rid of hezbollah that is elected to the offices across the country as a. Elected to the offices across the country as a great deal of popularity and then that the in the end then like threatening turkeys economy and things like that i mean great deal of popularity and then that the in the end then like threatening turkeys economy and things like that i mean this doesnt make things any better i mean constantly using this doesnt make things any better i mean constantly using the dollar and the use in the Financial System to punish countries around the world that just takes more dollar in the us in the Financial System to punish countries around the world that just takes more options off the table doesnt it go ahead joshua. It does you know look at sanctions is a very pins off the table doesnt it go ahead joshua it does you know look at sanctions is a very brutal brutal response to trying to regulate very brutal brutal response to trying to regulate refine to your Foreign Policy because it hits people right across the refined to your Foreign Policy because it hits people right across the board it is collective punishment in the worst way and were seeing that in iran with sanctions or it is collective punishment in the worst way and were seeing that in iran with sanctions on iran which of cause iran to escalate violence because theyre not going to take it live on iran which have caused iran to escalate violence because theyre not going to take it lying down and syria is in desperate straits and now the United States is eating down and syria is in desperate straits and now the United States is eager to take the oil which syria needs in order to rebuild and lebanon of course to take the oil which syria needs in order to rebuild and lebanon of course the u. S. Has been debating whether they should withdraw as the u. S. Has been debating whether they should withdraw all foreign aid to lebanon because hizbollah is part of the government but. All foreign aid to lebanon because hizbollah is part of the government but you know the lebanese elite has been. Sucky you know the lebanese elite has been. Sucking money out of this system for a long time and and you know itll be tearing money out of this system for a long time and and you know itll be terrible if 11 on it collapses i think the whole world understands that and nobody wants lebanon to call if 11 on it collapses i think the whole world understands that and nobody wants lebanon to collapse because it really is a set of lungs of the middle east where people because it really is a set of lungs of the middle east where people can retreat to and find some kind of comfort some kind of a sort of leaven teen playground on one hand its a playground but on the other hand it said it can retreat to and find some kind of comfort some kind of a sort of leaven teen playground on one hand its a playground but on the other hand it said its a refuge for all kinds of thinking middle easterners who can some refuge for all kinds of thinking middle easterners who cant find a place in their own country so it would be terrible if that if it collapses if it find a place in their own country so it would be terrible if that if it collapses if it if it runs into bankruptcy which it could do at any moment and. Its hard if it runs into bankruptcy which it could do at any moment and. Its hard to see how theyre going to how the lebanese are going to really sort out their economic see how theyre going to how the lebanese are going to really sort out their economic problems because when we look at the arab spring more generally which was frame of problems because when we look at the arab spring more generally which was framed of course as we just heard you know framed in terms of democracy. And of course as we just heard you know framed in terms of democracy. It there really hasnt been any serious economic. Discussion there really hasnt been any serious economic discussions about how these how the middle Eastern Countries can get out of those things about how these how the middle Eastern Countries can get out of this terrible income gap the bad governance the corruption and thats what terrible income gap the bad governance the corruption and thats whats going to take and its we dont really know the answers to that and people are desperate but th