Out its terrifying to hear how it is you know this pandemic will be resolved its all a matter of question and resources and patience because i understand that because ive been locked down for a month now and its getting very very tiresome. How is this pandemic going to impact a recovery if there is a recovery and i never thought in my lifetime i would ask about is there going to be a recovery because were seeing such amazing numbers that are just terrifying for the average person frankly go ahead william that we are were dealing primarily with a temporary supply shock right its a pandemic and so the most likely outcome is. Recession that is a recession that has a recovery thats just as quick as the downturn. You know the virus is eventually going to run its course and when it runs its course. Most of us are going to return to the to the Consumption Patterns that we had before will consume the same goods and services and most of us are going to return to the jobs that produce those goods and services but there there are 2 factors that could significantly change that it could change the v. Shaped recession into a huge shaped recession where the depth of that recession the low output lasts much longer and the recovery kicks off much later and the 1st is the duration of the pandemic the longer this virus lasts the more businesses are going to fail and when a business fails the the labor and the equipment of that business have to get reallocated to some other business and that takes time delaying the recovery the 2nd and maybe the thing that we have a lot more control over is our policy response now some of the policies that weve been active here in the u. S. They intend to speed up the recovery so the Paycheck Protection Program for example a provides loans to Small Businesses that keep their personnel and that will enable them to ramp up production as soon as its safe to do so but other policies other policies look likely to prolong the recession so here in the u. S. We have ratcheted up Unemployment Benefits by 600 bucks. Per week through july and as you said you know record numbers of unemployed unemployment claims right now that just ask yourself if if you were previously making say 20 dollars an hour and now you can make 15 dollars an hour for 40 hours a week not working at all how likely are you to return to work before july and so you know 20. 00 an hour thats 40000. 00 a year in terms of an annual salary manny of the people who have filed unemployment claims make less than that and so i think that its very unlikely that those folks return to work before july. Well thats very interesting i think most people do like to work well and i think they want to earn more but thats a different topic id like to talk about u. B. I. In a different topic is i think its a fascinating concept and i can actually as a conservative there is a contrary conservative position on that that might surprise a lot of people let me go to victor in beijing victor and obviously politics is playing a role in all of this i mean its no secret if you watch Mainstream Media particularly in the United States and how the United States should react and its quite frankly very anti china in rhetoric here but i mean the theres been this talk over the years of the last 40 years of coupling china within the Global Economy led by the United States and its allies and to be frank about that but now we come to this and and there is talk about the supply chains and particularly when it comes to pharmaceuticals and the Health Industry in general here i mean even if even if there was a political push to change the current reality which i seem very unlikely because these are Business Decisions and that government decisions then its a very complicated issue because you have trade relations that are. Expect very extensive very deep in the profit motive is obviously there but you come out with this rhetoric now that you know has china must pay much and i have my reparations and all this i mean on one side one can understand you know the frustration it may be correct may be incorrect that i dont think we really need to discuss this here but the fact of the matter is is that trade relations are being reexamined here and how do you see that moving forward because of chinas time extremely well over the last 40 years because of what is called globalization how does that change with this pandemic go ahead victor. Well i would say this current of virus will really redefine history as we understand it and the world of tomorrow will be very very very profoundly different from the world we have being so accustomed to and i think we need to do a lot of rethinking about almost all aspects of life and our work now as for the globalization i dont think that has coronavirus will stop the advance of globalization you talk about supply chain is role is not built in one day a supply chain is not built in one day if anyone want to change supply chain fundamentally it cannot be done in one day or you was stroke and fundamentally if you really want to readjust a supply chain you really need to come up with a recipe to advance competitive business to increase spend if its follow all the parties involved rather than destroying value saw im a Firm Believer that the world of tomorrow will continue to see a lot of division of luck a lot of supply chain there will be adjustments but i dont think fundamentally the u. S. Government or President Trump will be able to re already and supply chain as they want to because businesses will not buy the story when i do that i really believe that victor he gets to crack head thats the point of the program william jump in please do yeah i agree with victor here in terms of globalization you know theres a lot of talk about supply chain diversification right now but we have to keep in mind right that. Theres only so much that you can do in the Global Economy chinas a big player and the idea that we would somehow pursue a non china strategy or Something Like that is is is crazy theres certainly in vietnam. Right now they can produce anything that is currently produced in china but they cannot produce everything that is currently produced in china because there are 14 people in china for every one person in vietnam and so were still going to have a Mint Division of labor and china still going to be a very big part of that and then division of labor. Well but still and im trying not to invoke too much politics into this but i mean it is very much the flavor of the moment because i will be perfectly honest with you as i think because of the way the medical system in the United States exists it was very vulnerable to work to a black swan event like this ok and in a lot of people have questions because im not its up to i mean having a you recovery would be that would be great news to hear ok but i mean when you think of so much of value that is being destroyed as we speak right now and you think of the consolidation thats going to happen as a result of where a businesses were the ones that will maybe just teeter in just you know maybe make might make it might be these what gobbled up by a much bigger player and so as a result of this. Recession that were going through here were going to have fewer players are going to have more inequality so you know that thats going to make it a very wobbly you and that and thats the optimistic case i would say and plus im going to agree with both of you government policy is one thing but private enterprise is another thing and there is a symbiotic relationship between those 2 that isnt it often enough talked about ok because i believe that doing away 40 years of globalization is just insane it would be it would break the Global Economy but at the same time i think theres going to be the issue and i want to go to victor here the issue of of sovereignty and economic sovereignty and i think one of the things that is a result of this pandemic is health sovereignty as well and these are going to play into this future that picture was talking about go ahead victor well i would say as revealed by this coronavirus pandemic Different Countries and different regions have different standards for protective masks and as a result of this had died make we realized that these different standards. Its actually served to hinder the effectiveness of the fight against the corona virus and also to politicize the production and the supply of facial mosques further puts more lives especially doctors and nurses to their risk therefore i think one can actually argue just the opposite that is Going Forward in the world of tomorrow we need to have greater internationalization better standardize ation so that the world as a whole can be better prepared against a pandemic like the car or the virus and also in many other respects and in telecommunication media etc which have really played a very Important Role in helping mankind to fight against the coronavirus this time i think in the world of tomorrow we will see more and more applications based on 5 g. Or 6 g. Going forward so that way mankind as a whole will be better prepared for all the changes brought about by a big pad that make it like this we need to change but i dont think the equalization will be to make a trend i dont think destroying the current supply chain will be serving any was positive interest at all we still need to move forward beyond the horizon for the new world and everyone of us need to pitch in and the world of tomorrow will be better to let it all means youre pulling me into politics thats not exactly where i want to go but anyway i mean that would mean that the United States has to recognize china as an equal peer and that doesnt seem to be the case ok because the more china it becomes appear the more its demonized in parts of the American Media and the american Political Class because the United States has never had a peter ever and thats something that its very difficult for at least to get used to particularly this sense of american exceptionalism that i was brought. Generations of americans thats it its very difficult im agreeing with you china should be recognized as a peer but that something new right gentlemen im going to jump in here were going to go to a short break and after that short break well continue our discussion on the Global Economy state with our. Others financial Survival Guide i dont buy a i prize on a teachers. Face the friday as of last summer my ex from the future. Watched kaiser. Has changed american lives but pharmaceutical companies have a miraculous solution. Based drugs the people who are chronic pain patients believe that their prescription is working for them and the remedy be said to. Price at the. Close of dependency and addiction to opiates to long to use that really isnt scientifically just now study actually suggest that. The long term effects might not just be the absence of benefit but actually that they may because we want to. Welcome back to cross top where all things are considered im Peter Lavelle reminder were discussing the Global Economy after the pandemic. Ok lets go back to william in florida here well i mean how do you think the economys going to change i mean what sectors are going to would. Flourish and what sectors are going to be made by may completely disappear i mean how is the job market changing because you said earlier in the program that you could get a v. Recovery but the and were talking about a lot of jobs and small and midsize businesses then you know it with every passing day every passing hour those companies are really much in danger and personally looking at the mechanism to help them through this through this bailout stimulus is its own. To the point of farcical i mean a lot of these people just cant wait ok and those jobs will go somewhere else or people going to have to retool and i have to point out and i know its something that id like to say on this program here is that when you look at millennial this is the 2nd time theyve had to go through this ok you know maybe the economy can find its way but people are having a harder and harder time in with this you know this. Direct injection of cash you know 1200. 00 most of thats not going to go through consumption mode but most of its going to go paying our debts so i mean is this enough to really stimulate the economy to really get it going because as i pointed out you know if were going to have a new consolidation of different sectors where the bigger and bigger and the smaller ones disappear i mean how do we point that go ahead. Well i think in terms of the long term impact here i think theyre going to its going to be relatively modest so consider consider the cruise line industry its hard to imagine an industry that has suffered a bigger reputational below than the cruise line industry and we have lots of recreational turnitin but its actually not only are cruise bookings not down in the future next years cruise bookings are up 40 percent over last years cruise bookings and so that suggests to me that most people just want to get back to something approximating normal now for the production decisions in the economy firms are going to produce what people want to consume and so maybe some of those businesses are going to fail particularly if the virus lasts a long time or if our policy responses make labor markets inflexible but were going to ultimately end up with the goods and services that people want and so i just dont think that the economy is going to look all that different say 5 years from now what all of this is cleared. You know it just means that as looking at how china is the dealt with this here i mean is it is it is it its global trade relations going to be significantly altered because we know we before all this happened we had kind of the the baby steps with beijing and washington coming to trade agreements i mean a lot of talk but not not a whole lot has happened in that so its an agenda that still needs to be played out and certainly far from over and then we have this black swan event here and again you cant keep politics out of it i mean a lot a lot of people are again i want to go back to the supply chains here where they want to and they want to avoid have having this happen again and we can be very specific you know like and i biopics or something 90 percent are produced in china than are exported to various countries including the United States i mean if the United States were going to you know have a very strong barrier to about i mean and im just giving one example here i mean how would china have to readjust and what is it really learn from this pandemic in terms of International Economics go ahead. Well purely from the chinese perspective it makes more and more realize that the trade war was the wrong war the United States initiated it china had no other choice but to retaliate against the United States and the 2 countries and is up bruising each other not really getting to each others juggler to the detriment of the Chinese People and the American People if we go back to history and restart this again i want to do my best to convince president on trump not to launch the trade war but to really do our best to further increase the trade volume between china and the diamond states so that we the 2 largest economies in the world can better trade with each other with fewer restrictions with little if not no tariffs so that more and more people in the United States business. Says farmers you name it can sell more to china this will truly stimulate the economic girls of the United States now we are stuck with this trade war and this corona virus makes a very bad situation much worse because now were talking about lives and deaths of the people in the United States as well as here in china therefore i think when the dust settled down i hope the establishment see in china and the United States the intellectuals that issue makers the think tanks will read a rethink and re gold through all this painful process and pragmatism and realism will be much much better than what have a jingle is on all your desire to go to the general or against the other side i think Going Forward we will more cutely realize that this is truly interconnected world no matter whatever you want to do no madam whatever you call walls you want to erect you can a high paid high in the walls the world is interconnected and yet there is and you can get it over there i mean no most wanted well no one wins a trade war no one wins a trade war and in the case of president drums. Most of the cost of those tariffs have been borne by American Consumers and so not only did that make us poorer than we otherwise that would have been in the short run there but it also undermined our ability to combat this pandemic that followed even if ever so slightly. Yeah but william dont you know we have to go back to really and got donald trump elected in the 1st place in 2016 it was about trade ok most people on the left in the liberal media dismissed it is being fanciful but its not true you go to the midwest where im from its been hollowed out ok its been hollowed out of industrial jobs and and factories have been shut down and so i mean this again i think this is a moment you could look at it in a different direction not that im necessarily disagreeing with you 2 gentlemen here but i can see Political Forces to say this is an opportunity finally that we have to start a new industrial policy