Transcripts For RT Boom Bust 20240712

Outlook we are projecting a deeper downtown in 2020 and a slower to company in 2021 to growth to 2020 is projected at minus 4 point one percent which is 1 point one percent points below our april focused now this reflects the fact that in the 1st tough economic outcomes came in somewhat worse than we had anticipated and because there is no medical see you should we are expecting social distancing to persist for more for a long time into the 2nd half. And downgrading the growth forecast for 2021 the i. M. F. Expects a growth rate of 5. 4 percent instead of earlier estimates of 5. 8 percent the fund is predicting an 8 percent contraction in the United States in 2020 while the eurozone economy will decline by 10. 2 percent brazil will take a 9 point one percent hit with the economy of mexico shrinking by as much as 10. 5 percent just this year now the Organization Also pointed to a catastrophic toll on the labor market due to the pandemic saying there klein in work hours for the 2nd quarter will be the equivalent of losing 300000000. 00 full time jobs worldwide the funds chief economist also spoke about the unpredictable nature of the pandemic making it difficult to judge where the worlds economy will head in the near future so there is tremendous uncertainty around the full cost on the one hand you could get positive news you could have this news on the scenes and on treatments and great a policy support and that can trigger a fast as a cavity but on the other hand there are important Downside Risks to ease that the virus could come back up you could have a financial tightening that could lead to dest distress. And for more on this lets bring in some expert analysis from c. E. O. Of Quill Intelligence and former fed insider daniel de martino booth and host of economic update professor Richard Wolfe thank you both for joining us today that professor wolf i want to start with you here what do you make of this latest Global Forecast from the i. M. F. Is this what you are seeing in the worlds economy or do you think it might be much worse and what are you looking at when it comes to recovery. No i think my hat goes off to the i am after being able and willing to correct their own that now we can see room g. Projections and to take into account how serious is the im in the relation of having to tell my colleagues here the United States that this is the worst collapse of capitalism since the Great Depression of the 1930 s. We dont know how deep it will cut we dont know how long itll last or one thing we know for sure is that it is already the most severe contraction and if history is any guide the ramifications of that with us and hurt us 30 years to come and no danielle the i. M. F. Chief economist also spoke about the role of Central Banks in fighting this economic crisis as well substantial monetary and fiscal support we need to be continued but appropriate safeguards should be put in place there should be proper fiscal accounting fiscal transparency and when it comes to money policy Central Bank Independence has to be maintained and with the i. M. F. Advocating for Central Bank Intervention danielle if this is going to be the new normal for the foreseeable future. You know i cant see a different path forward that the Federal Reserve for one has had such an impossible time trying to extricate itself from its very large Balance Sheet its attempt at quantitative tightening failed and the fed was was the chief central bank on planet earth that was able to normalize the most for as little as it accomplished headed into this next crisis when we saw that the European Union went into recession with Interest Rates are already in the negative the same goes with with japan so i think to the i. M. F. Point there its going to be very difficult for Central Banks to step back from where they are given the projections for how long this this downturn is expected to be were not expected to get jobs back for years and years to come so i think that the Central Banks will become a permanent fixture of sorts and now were hearing a lot of bubble talk of these days earlier this week we talked about Jeremy Grantham the investor who called the last 3 financial bubbles saying that this bubble is the real mccoy as far as bubbles go and youre denny of your d. N. A. Research is saying that if the fed continues to flood markets with liquidity it could risk the greatest financial bubble of all time now do you know is this a real concern and is the fed actually worried about this bubble bursting or are they just trying to keep everybodys head above water at this point. Well i think right now the fed is the latter the fed is trying to prevent this bubble from popping but the problem is that in doing so its unleashed all kinds of record junk bond issuance even as companies are being downgraded to junk theyre issuing bonds on the open market weve had the most brisk few days in high yield issuance in history we tacked on over a trillion dollars of debt to an already over indebted Corporate America Balance Sheet so were setting ourselves up for a monumental decline and to your dennys point this truly is the mother of all bubbles and if the fed doesnt have some kind of internal recognition of this maybe not external maybe theyre not speaking about it publicly but internally there has to be a tremendous amount of discussion about the potential ramifications of a 2nd wave of requote zings of the u. S. Economy and what thats going to mean for these lofty valuations professor wolf i want your opinion on all of this fed intervention what are you looking at here do you buy this as the biggest financial bubble in history. It sure looks like it and i would have to argue that we are in one of those very dangerous situations whether Federal Reserve cannot stop supporting the Financial Markets because it has tried and that she has know that even the last few weeks of cutting that at had already troubling results they cant stop it but they realize that if they dont they are in fact a rising stock market at the same time that the underlying economy is going extremely other way it would be hard to imagine this having a happy ending and i think it speaks to a level of problems that have not been that are going up inside of our economy and that i dont want them this system can cope with and thats the future i think weve raised and now on the show we often talk about how the stock market is not actually tied to the economy but what we constantly see movement on Economic Data and when the u. S. Equities saw substantial losses with news outlets attributing it to obviously the increase in covert cases that were seeing here in the United States and this Economic Data from the i. M. F. Then you know what is really going on here what are markets reacting to i mean after weve seen is this really just a normal ization after what we saw this last week with some pretty substantial gains. So i think a lot of us in the world of economics these days are allowed at data so to speak anecdotal data and i can tell you that the drive time to the studio is half of what it was just 2 weeks ago this afternoon and that weve seen reservations in route restaurant reservations in many of the cities that have reopened come crashing back down as people say begin to shelter in place doesnt matter if the government is mandating it a lot of people that theyre seeing the data these are some of the the highest income earners in the nation and theyre deciding to call. That is their pocketbooks up again and to shelter in place once again this is going to have a ripple through effect on the economy and i think thats what markets are reflecting most of all today professor wolf what are you saying i mean weve saw this record run in tech i obviously again when we talk bubbles tech is obviously there just keeps going up and we saw that record run actually kind of and today as we saw markets not i dont take plummet but we lost what 6700 points on the dow what are you seeing here when it comes to the u. S. Stock markets. I think i see extreme anxiety just and your other guest pointed out reservations at restaurants currently backwards and that. And thats everywhere that you ring out for trying to game. Out on the wrist upswing funded by the last and how soon will something happen whether its in the past or whether its in the underlying weak economy to make people begin to think like cutting the reservation they want to cut their exposure to the market and once that begins with the loss the level that had been funded by the Federal Reserve then crashed down and be as accurate if not more so this time than it was a few months ago. Professor Richard Wolfe host of economic update c. E. O. Of quill intelligent former teligent and former fed insider daniel de martino both thank you both for joining us today. Thank you. Markets real over reports of a surge in corona virus cases lets take a look at the Global Trends and spread of the crow virus with r. T. Correspondent saya tabular now we know that nations are doing everything they can to fly and those curves but how well are they doing right now or brand someone you know better than others and others are just arent can see a surge in cases now the u. S. And brazil abo. Doing worse followed by india and russia not countries that are looking better and are illustrating that they are flattening the current are spain u. K. Iran peru and chile and mexico but theres Something Else that i want to i want to take a look at that amongst the countries with the highest reported cases now for example of the us with a population of 330000000 they have conducted over 29000000 tests now thats 90000. 00 thats about 90000. 00 per 1000000. 00 population of the u. K. And russia have conducted a lot more testing theyve done anywhere between 1222125000 per 1000000. 00 people but i want you to take a look at this for example brazil now they have a population of about 212000000 people yet theyve only conducted about 12000 testing per 1000000 population now india the other hand theyre doing a lot worse now theyre done just 5000. 00 test per 1000000. 00 population and india with a population of 1300000000. 00 people so expect those numbers in india to go up significantly in the coming days as they do more and more testing the same for brazil. Can you break down the numbers here in the u. S. Where we did it so specifically 7 states are reporting record high numbers obama hospitalization since to pandemic now the u. S. Is also recorded its 3rd highest total with over 36000. 00 new cases and again thats the largest single day increase since the start of the pandemic but its also not just about the cases youre right its also how many of those infected would eventually need critical medical care and overwhelm the Health Care System and thats where again these 7 states come in a story where the. Were having the Record Number hospitalizations now for example in their destroy ported Record Number of deaths today and california gess hit a record today with more than 7000 new cases and texas more than 4000 people are hospitalized now thats more than double the number at the beginning of june and and these 7 same states are also among the 1st and most aggressive to reopen for example florida most restaurants and Stores Opened back on may 4th while gyms and stores were actually in full capacity in early june of the same went for texas and arizona but to give you a comparison you know a state like maine thats fewer than 2100 cases they announce that restaurants would not be open for Indoor Service any time soon so were obviously seeing a trend here the sooner the states open up the more cases that were seeing right now and because of all these spikes in numbers states like new York New Jersey and connecticut have Just Announced a 14 day mandatory quarantine for travelers coming from states with a 10 percent infection rate or higher and right now these states all have that 10 percent infection rate or more plus Something Else i want to point out is that none of these states that you see right here every mandated a wearing a mask in public but again expect all of these to change because as you recall new york started with as the epicenter of the virus but now theyre only at a 1 point one percent infection rate brant so correspondent thank you so much for keeping us up to date. And time now for a quick break but here because when we return could we soon see if in tech giants moving into the cryptocurrency space will bring you a boom bust panel understand the sector and as we go to break here the numbers at the close. I know no crowd. No shots. Actually felt speak i. Mean well its true no 1st of all. Points your thirst for action. We start to add to. The good can each other than the men. But on the butter side going to the booklist muscle that business from just. East of. The emotion learning t. M. Must go if you will still be stuck or you muscles in the course of your knee which mrs cheney has just located off a coach of the church. Compassion that. We think she minds be soldier shes also the boots shes wearing. To challenge so so looks like to move the opposing opinion was with going on the show stuck in the summer watching the police force send us all the. And welcome back nations throughout the world are struggling to combat the coronavirus as it continues to ravage economies sending some into recessions no economists claim an increase tax on the wealthy might help alleviate some of this pain but so far not many have done so just days before russias scheduled to vote on constitutional reforms russian president Vladimir Putin announced a tax increase for the wealthy as a way to stimulate the economy. Some a little of what it was since the beginning of the pandemic was the main goal was to keep the basic revenue of russian households implemented help people and solve their problems to support the economy as it was through them. Taxes will increase from 13 to 15 percent for those earning more than 5000000. 00 rubles thats the equivalent of roughly 72000. 00 american dollars this is the 1st tax hike on wealthy russians since a flat tax was introduced in 2001 the countrys g. D. P. Is expected to decrease by 6 percent due to the pandemic russia wont be the only nation raising taxes during the pandemic beginning in july saudi arabia will impose a 15 percent value added tax on all goods produced in the country raising the vet rate from its current 5 percent level. And huge news in the Digital Currency world as Digital Payment giant pay pal is reportedly looking at whether or not to offer direct sales of bitcoin and other cryptocurrency to more than 300000 w3cw users globally through its mobile subsidiary then mail some reports indicate that the service could be available in the next 3 months or even sooner joining us now to discuss our bus cohost spence juan and Christi I Ben i want to actually start with you here how big of a push was this give kryptos currencies like bitcoin. Yeah if you want to know how big its going to be goes back to right now when you had a little bit of a pause there when you almost said 300000 had to correct it 300000000 users using paypal worldwide thats how big this is on were talking about the ability for pay pal to reach into audiences that that where big coing and alternative coins have never been before just to give you an example of how big were talking about you know coinbase is probably the most Famous Exchange in the United States for big coin they have about 11000000 users 11000000 on coinbase buy nance which christie is very familiar with knows the guys over there by nancy very well theyre the largest in the world they have about 15000000 users so when youre talking about a company of the humus company like possibly stepping into this space and introducing about 305000000 users to cryptocurrency its a very big deal the real i think issue is whether or not its just because or which alternative coins are all coins get to be a part of this is well because if you are in all coins and you managed to get on the pay pals platform it would send you skyrocketing so itll be very interesting to see how that part of the story plays out you know kristie we know the other payment processors have gone down this road before pay pals primary fin tech rival square launched transactions in its cash app in the 1st quarter of the Service Generated 306000000 in because revenue alone now is it only a matter of time before pay pal gets into this space at this point. Yeah it was doubly only a matter of time before all of these legacy payment processes jumped on board the bandwagon and its not because theyre necessarily believers are quick to think its yes or anything but because of the opportunity because its profitable and became trendy and just like square and Facebook Libra theyre all seeing this as a very lucrative opportunity so at this is a big deal but its also kind of sad when crypto which was designed to be free and get access to the masses but instead i had. They he meant stepping and self appointing themselves to be the good keepers the middleman to get access very selective point they said ben just mentioned when the entire point of crypto is to cut out the middle man but sadly we do kind of live in an age of convenience and so the easier the more convenient the more dumbed down and at makes it for the ordinary user to get access to be quiet the more people continue to do news and adopt it and the more powerful that middleman gatekeeper becomes so right now in a really good position to capitalize on this opportunity saying that they are ready to have that partnership with on base so by offering to sell script on the platform they acquire within reach of its 300000000 active users so its a double edged sword on one hand it will increase their points exposure and his ability to the average person but then on the wall there nor completely entrusting an intermediary to hold and store and transact your funds which is completely defeating the purpose of that line now ben we know that crypto currency faces that a lot of regulatory hurdles specially here right here in the United States so what is that what is standing in the way of pay pal actually going down this road or saying that we could see it in as soon as 3 months maybe even sooner so whats in the way of this well i think theres a couple of things remember the that there is a still a big disconnect between the way the i. R. S. Views cryptocurrency and the way the rest of the world these crypto currency so here in the u. S. When we talk about crypto currency we refer to it as a currency an Actual Exchange of value the same as with a dollar and thats an exchange of alue and so thats how the general public views crypto currency the i. R. S. Use crypto currency as property or as a as a an asset so if you say im going to purchase you know some bitcoin today the i. R. S. As you just purchased property not that you that youre trading currency so there is a big kind of disconnect between the way the government in this country and Government Agencies view cryptocurrency versus the way that its viewed on these platforms so even though or a pay pal is to. Treating it like you know any crypto currency like it is a currency but i also want to say very quickly to christies point i think this is important you know she was mentioning that there is kind of a standard view of how it should be for if youre a purist for big coin or a purist for crypto currency that youre supposed to be cutting out the middleman and that is absolutely that is absolutely accurate the problem that were going to run into with a company like pay pal coming in is that it will also help to drownd out or crush smaller crypto currencies that have different function than that coin and might in some cases even be more effective or a Better Technology than that point but because people can access it in a very convenient way or as she said a middleman in between which a lot of people like the idea of those alternative currencies are going to get crushed. Kristie is there something that stands in the way of getting onto an exchange like this or why is it so different sometimes you see only 5 coins offered obviously because its offered everywhere but how do you how do you get as many coins onto a platform as possible. Well one thing is out there is always a huge process of the on boarding fee but then the other bigger issue is the fact of the courty decline and all of the top 3. 00 quines are going to be the most likely going to rebel those are going to be the most liquid and therefore the most accessible so whenever you have a middleman such as a pow doing all the transactions for you of course want to limit their risk and exposure so obviously in our to do that they have to have now quick access to spot markets with all the exchanges so the way that to limit their risk of holding all of these assets to minimize the Price Fluctuations is to of course transact in the most liquid currencies and thats the barrier for a lot of the all coins simply because theres not a lot of training. Kristie i cant let this segment go without talking a little bit about the price of because what are your thoughts on the price of seemingly being stuck around 9600. 00 of course today as everything went down a drop down to 9300 but what are you seeing here why is it having a hard time especially this above breaking through that barrier. Well it did take a little dump this morning but we are still wholly well above the 10 day and the 50 Day Moving Average so were kind of mirroring the equities market a little bit but the big reason why we are currently stuck in this 1000. 00 range is basically the Derivatives Market the Derivatives Market is continuing to grow and theres currently a record setting 1000000000. 00 notional set to expire this friday the 26 so thats actually quite exciting but if we look at where the open interest is concentrated the majority is that 10011002 the upside but on the downside were looking at the 9000 strike which is currently in the money so now looking at the slow data a good amount of traders are selling these 10011000 strikes and buying the 1000. 00 so thats why theres so much resistance at the 10000 because of prices start to rise the call sellers are going to take a short positions to keep the market from scaling to 10000 mark so it has to stay within this range into expertise for all of these call sellers to profit so this is definitely the largest that quite option expert by a mile right now this week so it is expected that the aftermath could be quite. Boom bust cohost ben swan and christiane thank you so much for breaking all this down for us. And thats it for this time you can catch boom bust on demand on the brand new portable t. V. Up a billboard smartphone through google play on the Apple App Store by searching portable t. V. It also bought it on apple t. V. Devices or simply just go to portable t. V. The next time. There is a many of the protesters on the streets of america social justice nominally speaking thats a positive message the problem is that message is translated in concrete political demands and what if you dont agree with you. Whats needed national will discover know when youve been eating less and thats only sit in. The regular morgue youre more your partner do provide. A. Water source like you would all because lucifer mistletoe is just that. It is not my achievement mr davies our 5 year plans were conceived. And carried out by the people themselves if they would produce or even floor it with the idea of making a film like this probably be branded as crazy. Now is the sentiment during the war the soviets were brave heroes resisting. Thats going to change of course after the war once the cold war begins. Little people think that hollywood is a free place but really what is strictly. The business and the other side is. How would i define hollywood is they call it a dream anything which i thinks true. Equally its a propaganda for. Every single part of america pretty much just doesnt do what it says it does the Food Companies dont make food the Car Companies dont make cars the computers dont make computers they dont do what they say theyre doing all theyre doing is theyre gaming the system by getting a free pass from the fed if youre part of the privileged class and then you know whipping that up to d. C. Its payday for the executives. In the middle of the computer the middle of the hey folks Dennis Miller here still come india from my home joined by a dear friend today fellow s n l a law and although he was there with the original permutation right smack dab in the middle of it create an Roseanne Roseannadanna and many more alans why bell right after this Dennis Miller plus one. And hey folks welcome to Dennis Miller plus one im very excited today usually want to guys nice i sometimes find their comedy incipit usually when a guy is brutal i sometimes find their comedy insightful to find a nice guy whos comedy smack on the nose right on the button killer insightful is truly to find the motherlode my guest today is you must allensworth bow out on his best known for his work on s n l but also you know billys show 700 sundays you work tempt him on that. I think hes consulting producer with larry over target enthusiasm his new book i am in the midst of reading it and im in a treasure trove of reading apropos of nothing by woody allen and the now book the actor both making a lot laugh lines my life helping funny your people be having funny people be funny are now out in stores and online alan how are you my friend made then its how you do embody. Beautiful the book is killing me and the cover were very clever to put that like almost a post it memo about essence and you get the i just that that is such a Clever Design was 8 euros now with about a year earlier he sent me a couple of cover designs that made me laugh but then i thought ok there are that there in the course of the next year well discuss it no one brought it up in the next thing i knew that was the cover and i went ok but yeah yeah it sort of makes sense and if you if youd dine for a picture of me on the back you have my face by whole face yeah you have that harried comedian