Portraying hysteria and shortage of stock creating a state of positive feedback yeah theres a shortage of stuff perceived shortage and people get you know black friday they rush the stores and they get into a fist fights and brawls and its like an american thing and amazingly its like migrated to the rest of the world even though these other countries dont have to its giving even though that they dont have these big box discounters they still like to go to the store and beat each other up because they figure thats like being an american they get a hamburger from mcdonalds you beat each other up on black friday and hes saying the National Anthem i mean america is the culture that people love and were going to get into this comparing this to robin hood app traders but you know i want to show you what i bought in black friday and that was a mini max it did sit on the shelf for quite a while but most people didnt realize many macs actually stood in for you for a few episodes during lockdown and nobody even noticed so it was worth the 599. 00 not 599. 00 but. 5. 99 i paid for this many macs know that outsold elf on a shelf for 3 christmas its a row before christmas got cancelled because of the car Council Culture and the generation and this also justice i got a calculator only paid 6. 00 for a member back of the 1970 s. I bought one for 800. 00 so that was a good one the 1st quite a bargain this is a ive no idea what this is but it looks like a keyhole but its attached to nothing so you on lock the present knowing not into the safe of vault of nothingness put the key here and enter the void so this this was definitely worth the 17 marymount i pay for it this is where i would keep my stuff in case i was out there hunting in the bush with davy crocket i would keep my little packet of you dont do much that these days but it was a bargain at 47. 00 and who doesnt want the spare in the cupboard i got this. Mock out again and you know this is the standard style a very stylish and moscow to wear your own junk you know they were this even over 30 below 0 you can you can be made from the forehead down if you have your in shock on if you like in miami beach right is the amazing Russian Technology there so i know i did almost forgot here this is a 2 cam i got also on the cell simply because i thought it would be a good friend for plucky you know plucky lonely a lot of times hes a manic depressive isnt it so i get him a nice 2 can like this he can have fun plucky the point is that one participates in one of these shopping stampedes and pretty much you put the stuff on the shelf and never use it again but you feel better because you got a 50 Percent Discount well you know a lot of robin hood traders look at the markets and think theyre getting 50 or. 60 or 70 or 90 Percent Discounts when a company on the verge of bankruptcy their shares collapsed in like wow a 90 Percent Discount before it declared bankruptcy it was 100. 00 now its only 10 what a bargain right well 20000. 00 robinhood traders are in for a rude surprise as c b l prepares to file bankruptcy bloomberg reports small operator c. B. L. And associates is preparing to file for bankruptcy the headline hit after hours on friday sinking shares by at least 20 percent and you can see shares collapsed by 20 percent then they opened down 23 percent on monday mornings incredible you know these rabid traders are really learning some important lessons about trading stocks and because in this case the perception that becomes something has dropped 90 percent that it cant go any lower and of course people who are experienced in markets know that if its dropped 90 percent the chances of it dropping another 90 percent are actually quite high things that are trading at all time highs tend to trade at new all time highs things trading at all time lows tend to trade at new all time lows thats a very subtle and kind of nuanced real fact of trading you find it in books like reminiscence of a stock operator by Jesse Livermore written in the 1920 s. Consider the bible of trade if you really want to learn how to trade these things i suggest you read that very slim book and educate yourself on how these things actually work but jeff when robert apps these kids jency i dont mind picking their pockets every day i can see where theyre making the mistakes i just capitalize on their naivete but in my view im helping them learn its like i could give money to the college fund of america or i could help robin hood traders lose money into my pocket well this is an interesting chart you can see the green line here is the users of robin hood app versus the price of c. B. L. And you see as it keeps on going down and we keep. Going down robin hood app keep on piling in just for fun i went over to twitter and entered the house and a dollar sign c. B. L. To look at what people are talking about these day traders were saying on Twitter Holding c. B. L. And buying more to average down confident theyre going to reach an agreement with the banks are selling. So this is somebody on july 18th the day then they basically were filing for bankruptcy so there are agreements in place with creditors that the creditors when you the equity holders lose as weve said many times as they keep on piling into these bankrupt companies yeah these robber who traders would be buying deck chairs on the titanic you know because the price keeps going down and theyre really cheap about a dollar a share im going to buy more while im on the lifeboat we have. Like could do it do it do it in the dot com days when i guess it was really generation x. Participating in the dot com days and the last of the boomers like yourself and you know people are piling in on these companies that had no earnings because they had bought like a u. R. L. Like pets dot com but these were companies that were in the beginning of not only a Tech Industry which was still quite new at that point and you know the World Wide Web you know monetizing that that was brand new at the time in the late ninetys but also like these companies at least you could imagine that they might grow into something huge like pets dot com or whatever even the Infrastructure Companies that did fall after that the hype that once everybody realized like the power of the possibility of the World Wide Web they went bonkers right well with these sort of bankruptcy speculators these shopping stampedes to invest in bankrupt companies theyre literally companies at the end completely of their life cycle hurts over 100 years old it was one of the 1st of the rental Car Companies now. In the day and age of hoover and other rice sharing out. That started to destroy that business and were in a post pandemic world well not yet but one day we might be and people Business People arent traveling anymore malls dead theyre not coming back and theyre buying these bankrupt companies a Whiting Petroleum oil whole oil industry dead so these end of life cycle that these Young Robin Hood africa are piling in to yeah i think thats a remarkable kind of insight and interesting point there that the gen x. And the last the baby boomers were speculating in the night seem ninetys on the birth of companies that went public for the 1st time and they would have these pops and then there was this enormous crash here the millennial zinj and theyre speculating on the death of companies and companies that are dying and declared their dead companies and their client plowing their way in to speculate on the death of a company so there seems to be a very elegant kind of comic circle being squared here im not exactly sure what it all means but it is quite beautiful well i think its kind of a trickle down situation if you look at the these people piling into dead companies now only dead companies but dead industry is dead Business Models. Look at the chart from the United States the government the treasury monthly u. S. Surpluses and deficit since 1980. Look at huge the deficits are getting lookout more and more bankrupt slowly and then suddenly its becoming bankrupt and yet you see you know investors around the world many of them from this mysterious caribbean area piling into treasuries theres often. Excess demand for negative yield in bonds i mean were making fun of these millennialism jency buying up robinhood out you know shares on robin hood apple bankrupt companies and dead Business Models but the same thing globally with investors Bond Investors doing the same thing theyre being paid you know theyre paying governments to borrow from them so like how much less insane how much of a stampede at the supermarket like we all make fun of those walmart rioters and were making fun of the robin hood app rioters and what about the bond traders well its almost short termism so the appeal of buying negative Interest Rate bonds is the greater fool theory thats always going to buy after you bought it and you can get a short term profit in the reason why short term profit seeking a so paramount today is because people are broke theyre bankrupt and their drug addled and theyre drawn. And you put them on line with free trading on an app and they do stupid things so the secret of course is to get rich slow but nobody has 20 years to do that everyone has to make money in the next 20 minutes or face to creditors and that includes institutions Pension FundsUnited States government is trying to make money in the next 20 minutes otherwise its going to have to declare bankruptcy and thats unfortunate but true so it the risk gets more extreme like a gambling addict at the casino they only have one bet left before theyre taken to prison and they put it all on the road the roulette wheel thats. America now that its bankrupt no more defense ability its a protocol its blown out there like were going to put their entire future of the country on the road spin that roulette wheel maybe wait and maybe it will when you know fred smith who is the founder of fedex actually the company was down to us last 5000. 00 or 15000. 00 he did go to vegas he did put it on the roulette wheel he did when he saved the Company Without that lucky spin in vegas fed ex the company would never have survived ok but that was a one in the 10000000000 shot you cant roll the entire future of the country on a rule on a spin of the hole that will well don it finally and. I want to point out to the last seconds here i do want to point out that you know just like those robin hood app traders are hoping for something that never what happens in real life which is the bankruptcy that equity holders are going to make any money the same with all the investors in this failed Business Model of a global system based on the u. S. Dollar any currency would fail and that reserve currency but were all in doubling down on this hoping like some sort of miracle the bankruptcy judge basically makes this all whole can link up. With the fun about the. Well well be back after this moment go it. Is your media a reflection of reality. In a world transformed. What will make you feel safe. Isolation full community. Are you going the right way or are you being led to. Direct. What is true what is faith. In a world corrupted you need to descend. To join us in the depths. For a mate in the shallowness. Welcome back to the kaiser report imax keyser time now to turn 10 a fantail way to more it is the host of breakdown an l w author hes also the author of long raids on sunday at his sub stack i follow this guy on twitter hes a deep thinker were going to interview him right now is pretty darn interesting but then hell welcome a thing so much for having me everybody is talking about open ai g p t 3 is the most powerful Artificial Intelligence language model ever is this something we should celebrate or fear i think it goes both ways i mean i dont think you can have a i advantage without worrying a little bit about it the specifics of this one the model thats been released the thing that makes it less scary to me which may be relevant for other parts of our conversation is that it cant do narrative so basically this is sucked in 16475000000000 inputs half a trillion words and so it can predict with incredible accuracy affectively what the next word is supposed to be based on context so it makes it easy for it to do things like imitate blog post and people style the scary thing that of course is that you can imagine you know essays op eds or whatever coming out from max or from the faneuil that sounds just like us that people are reading us a lot because its good at doing that sort of imitation the less scary thing is it doesnt really have any comprehension of what its putting out there its just really a predictor so its not kind of intelligent in any meaningful way its just very impressive but its still i think you know every advance that ai has implications for a lot of different roles in jobs and Everything Else and ultimately you know its about trajectory and last year g p t 2 came out and people were blown away that it existed and its taking an even less them out of time for it to be sort of this new version thats 2 orders of magnitude stronger so you know the question that we have with ai i think are bigger than. Any one specific implementation or model but it reminds us that this is going to be a serious part of our future right you think cant stand narrative what does that mean and means that it has a hard time keeping a coherent thought it doesnt have a mental model of the world all it has is the ability to read other stuff and so lets say that you and i wanted to kind of construct a story or you know your were going to talk about a bunch of Different Things today but you know if we talk about the the wall street right wall street bath and robin hood and these sort of things im coming into that with a set of mental models that help put that in context for the world it doesnt have anything like that and so what this amounts to is that after a couple paragraphs it can get kind of disjointed and weird and go on strange non sequiturs and tangents and so it can craft a story basically it can do bullet point you can do essays it can do a lot of very impressive things but it cant keep kind of a coherent picture of the world that its all building up to play out in a half hour pay paul. I dont really believe in any narrative right because everythings become fake this cell in the president says thats fake news and Mainstream Media is fake this a 1000 telling people that dont believe any narrative if you have an ai bot thats doing it is rape our taj as it were and it famous from what you find from other fake mez its going to be difficult to convince anybody that anything is worth listening to and i think that might be one of the risks of this particular piece of technology now moving on the free money p. P. P. Bailouts the massive money printing operations enhanced Unemployment Benefits universal basic and come put the scale of the money printing into some sort of Macro Economic context and where does this go i mean it goes bigger i mean youre seeing already the all of the kind of like by the little headlines menuhin back on the hill talking about more in stimulus and wanting to get both the fiscal and the monetary engine going in concert you have the e. U. Who just approved a 2000000000. 00 korbel and recovery package and so i think the biggest thing for me is the whole the side the numbers if the normalization of the methods right when this happened there wasnt a question there wasnt a debate about whether we were going to engage in these programs there wasnt a National Kind of conversation about whether the fed was kind of moving outside of its mandate with the special purpose vehicles it was just assumed that when things got bad the fed was going to be there and the real impact to me is again less the actual dollars and cents in fact is people who are arguing right now that you know as as a kind of percentage of g. D. P. The feds Balance Sheet is still low relative to the e. C. B. In japan and things like that i think what matters much more is again the narrative implications and the normalization of the fed beds backstopping everything right when you say they are normalizing the fed going outside of a say normal channels and using special purpose vehicles to bypass let thats called what it is by. Passed the law right there in the behavioral lawlessly for the benefit of whom the other thing that i need the money is trickling down to a vast majority of folks in the country things always get stuck in the pockets of the kleptocrats and i can tell you there so isnt this effectively what we say as a coach it would be a coup if it wasnt already the power structure in place rated as mean and maybe revealing the coup that happened a long time ago more baldly but i think that the the reality is that there is only one instrument that they have to kind of exert their will on the markets and thats an instrument that by definition is going to get to the sort of actors right that can tell you theres insiders faster and i think in a lot of ways thats why youre seeing people kind of throw out the assumption that that traditional policy is going to do anything for them and are just trying to kind of assert themselves like barbarians at the gate in the markets so i think that the only qualms i have with your definition of this is a coup is that its been going on for a long time and and if anything this just kind of made it more clear the antecedents got back to the reagan years and the federal reserves greenspan put all the deregulation and basically wiping away the security back to 33 and 34 that cleaned up the mass of the speculative bubble of the 1920 so were back kind of into almost a replay of all the excesses that occurred at that time the robin hood trading generation is out there on that app trading up a frenzy and theyre buying stock in bankrupt companies with their with their p. P. P. Money and their and their universal basic and come money theyre buying hertz and j. C. P