And welcome to crossfire where all things are considered on Peter Lavelle forced regime change plain book and why it is not and will not work and there was also the know bali saga benefits from this very strange episode. You discuss this im joined by my guest Marcus Papadopoulos in london hes editor of politics 1st magazine and in budapest we cross to jordan samuel he is author of bombs for peace natos humanitarian war and yugoslavia are across up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate when you let me start with george or george lets start with the gammas story because the beer a story looks. Like its kind of morphing into the venezuelan story of the baltics ok because we have this pretend or recognized from the. From lithuania i think it is this moment that they can all sky and that she is the president in exile right now are they pulling up quite oh here because i seriously doubt this would be happening if my own peo had made a phone call go ahead george well they are trying to pull away though but of course the why dont case turned out to be a complete fiasco. And its clear that the trumpet ministration isnt terribly happy with the policy that it got stuck with thanks to the pressure from former National Security advisor john bolton so i have my doubts that they go to political why go over this. Because if youre going to give them. Is notable for all the absence of pressure from the United States and i say it has been actually taken a rather reckless an approach towards this and without pressure from the americans. I dont think this is going to go very far and i think its so theres already indications that look at shango feels very confident of himself and hes being his usual difficult self with with the russians feeling rather confident that the e. C. At the say you know mark is a i tend to agree with george and on top of it a look at shank i mean i made it very public particularly to to rushing to television stations that he isnt least rhetorically officially open to some kind of transition though within the bounds of russian law thats that indicates to me that hes learned the lesson that he can stay. But he has to start thinking of an exit here what are your thoughts. Lets see. Over the last few weeks what we have to say here barry says is an attempt by the west to instigate for the west coast resolution v. S. E. Ease and his hands to screw against a legitimate president and in days in the fool a serious say so all must say of course they are goes back many its own whos also sort of cool color resolutions jujitsu falsehood and free ukraine seashells on and for a song 3 shells under fire and most recently of all ukraines few shells and fools saying but these tendencies crew a better choice was always going to fail why because the. Show to save the belorussian population dothan sells as apostle of the russian well they see themselves as part of the lawson family secondly. We should quit more accurately. Ease the facts or province of the Russian Federation and we have seen that seeing the recent times because the Russian Ministry in tandem with about russias military has announced see you loose disposes wish polands ukraine and about 6 cents to prevent infiltrates is from coming in for a necessary so on those countries and also Russian Special services working alongside Russian Special services have now identified its asian profile consumers all the west in most notably of course. Now the real question is or should he not well see isnt always going to what was he going to succeed and no what it has now done it is shredded friends. Russias position lucas shankar because i did not change litter same car then the unions say its all for gosh i. Wish rules which was formulated between yatsenyuk location tires in the late ninetys were some comments are being made by now but look a shame co has so we get a sense chris in case of a helmet russia because look if she wants to be a presence of the union sites now that looks shanghai or has a moderately. Present. For assistance in france and that now gears it shows in every leisure its so the kremlin to exercise other look at shanghai so i actually believe piece that innocent person plays the west has actually placed an appearance hullo while i believe the materialization soon are off and lace of the union states well george but thats the why and the only in here i mean and its one of the things that i get very frustrated with looking at the west your narrative because its not about lucas its about the place that we know is be able to spell russia and its relationship with russia and as mark was quite regularly and in great detail i discuss this is a this is a single state ok at this point here and the problem has been is that its been looking at unwilling to implement every single phase in stage of that that he signed up to and so this is the this is the unreported narrative that whats going on in india rules because its it is kind of a lucas ngo problem but for very Different Reasons go ahead yes that is right. There the policy before the election which was a day by the e. U. And the United States was to try to foster as not. Division between. Belarus and russia is possible and that made a certain amount of geo strategic sense whatever it is makes life difficult for the russians nato the United States regards as a good thing buton as many headaches as possible but by overplaying their hand in belarus as moch as quite rightly point out. They have now strengthened the the bond between russia and belarus and youre getting the impression that out that the europeans are sensing the food supply policy and have trying to draw back because i do think its striking that the whole of this propaganda behind. You kind of scale and having all these attractive women around and over the propaganda to try to get oh this is the belarus that we want to recognize this is a legitimate government of either was that failed thats thats gone nowhere so it looks to me like we may be heading to was the preelection policy of well lets try to foster division but i think thats extremely unlikely to fail i think that i think that a train that left the station speaking about division that means if you look at the reaction of the European UnionMember States its the whole why go scenario is its really been given a Cold Shoulder because you know were not going to go through this again i think we also have to point out is that the European Union as a whole has ukraine i mean look at what the resources and. And time they put into ukraine and well they kind of got a you know a milk toast version of what they wanted ok because this is the fundamental reforms that ukraine needs is not happening right now and again just that the billions and billions of euros that went nowhere i personally think and compete in his pocket so marcus almost how much do you think that plays into this kind of picked up and give me something. At the europeans about this regime change playbook. Well here again this year he is nationally as rifle to the United States in economic terms but also malaysia the European Union is a strategic friends an ally to the United States in days we can say that russians and assure mendus amounts of influence over e. U. Policy making and i was science begin in nazi 1014. 00 when america place sanctions on the Russian Federation because of the crisis in ukraine which incidentally america was also fall off the European Union. By germany was very apprehensive about wanting to place sanctions on russia they did resist but in the end of the year being union it caved into the pressure to phone the United States and i think if we fast forward to 20 transit what we seen in recent times embarrass yes the European Union has says he player go in that its simply the case that poland in the 06 states which are very dangerous countries for russian National Security actually facilitates its. Tenets its career in the country well i think olson italy the hand of washington is responsible for what we have seen in belarus and i think the americans are actually emboldened by that its high up in ukraine because yes ross analysis the money cant be cold its ukraine and loss i mean ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the us and and it has been ever since it came independence in late 990 but nonetheless ukraine as we talk now is integrating if the west has ukraine is the greatest. Policy challenge to the kremlin so i think the americans have bones and by their success in ukraine. They obviously didnt do the homework so suspicions are not one of the signs groups is not youre trying to have better or worse as i said the facts are a province of the Russian Federation or you can predict this washington sex arrests. Market that washington doesnt do its own mortgage they thats kind of an understatement because they screw up every step of the way here i think youre right marcus and you know washington is in bold but i think in bold in the sense that you can quit it created a quagmire ok where 8 if you know russia has to take the burden here its not a success and a nominal way its like oh he screwed up that neighborhood it makes the neighborhood unstable thats a victory for us which is a very cynical Foreign Policy go ahead george yes now that youve hit the nail on the head that peter thats exactly what the american think and its. Not. So the weight goes in by the us the americans will say well its a choice because its a headache for the europeans because its right there on the border its a headache for the russians. And so theyre well they might say yeah ok you know whats the solution more america because obviously shows that the europeans are unable that their own problems so he was its the same you know you see the same scenario played out in iraq and syria and libya and say ok if the oh i had a no doubt. But what it is do is they been you even in all these cases you capture elites in specific countries ok and they even thwarted within their own in their own country and then within the union youre ok gentlemen to jump in here were going to go to a short break and after that short break more discussion and some real news stay with arkie. The pandemic no certainly no borders and islam to noncelebrities. Is a word we told it with everybody we dont look like see the whole world needs to be. Judged to. Come to a crisis or. We can do better we should know. Everyone is contributing to their own way but we also know that this crisis is not go on forever the challenges created with the responses has been masked so many good people are helping us. It makes us feel very proud that we are in it together. A new gold rush is underway in ghana thousands of ill equipped workers are flocking to the gold fields hoping to strike it rich here is a good. Day over the children are torn between gold and education from me was very poor i thought i was doing my best to get back to school which side will have the strongest appeal. Join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and ill be speaking to guest of the world of politics or business im showbusiness ill see of that. Welcome back to crossfire or all Things Considered im peter lubell true mind you were discussing some real names. Ok marcus goes yes which heres a talk about the strange case of natalee meaning the more we learn or dont learn about this the story here about the alleged poisoning of mr noel me which is seen in the west as kind of the leader of the russian opposition to the political status quo i would like to preface by before i asked the question is that he hardly has much of a following in russia which you know of course western media would not tell their their audience as you know but it seems to be you know who are you who do you want to believe and i think this is where lee what what the origins of this strange case is about who are you going to believe the russian said that this gentleman left the country with no indication that he had been a waste and then german Officials Say just the opposite but at the same time not releasing to the public what kind of them from lightning information they have that would prove that allegation so its kind of poke political football and its really more about Something Else but i want you to react so far. Oh firstly haste and bad is not a political reason for the kremlin to syria or want to assassinate a value why because its not how they stand in it in Russian Society is absolutely national i dont shine its all Russian Society that hes a loser and alexina found it because he has to say by do you want to marry a russian man and woman as being a fool is cullen all the United States or someone who wants to return to how it was during the 19th nineties by which i mean some city americans so he has no sand in will so far amongst ordinary russians secondly there is no economic reason for the kremlin to also assassinate neutrality because that was in necessarily jeopardize nor straight and the russians do not want anything to affect no strain why because a new strange comes to shes a very significant source of revenue for the russian governments friendly you dont have to be a scientist to understand that if someone nice poisons waited for a nerve agent for example not a shock and especially in the confines of an aircraft then people who are around the person who is being poisoned on actually current city contaminated yes in that case and not passengers adjacent to him not carrying troops not the people who treated him well contaminates its treat it differently had attended to it so you assassinate about it why own pace or would they have to laugh attention to journey knowing that this is a species hes a cad i suppose and so the americans without a leg he has been poisoned by the friendly it is absolutely prosperous nonsense there is no reason why the kremlin was once assassinated. Found he asked and on the whole i would say this to the germans if they are so sussan that newfound me was some of the senses of poisonous around me by using nothing short and cool to see the evidence of the germans to the kremlin wants us not allow russian medical doctors and scientists to transition many of the German Authorities to share their medical and scientific findings wish the russians its a simple as this space and if you have nothing to hide then you have no reasonable sense and all share your finds and with a posse i know that isis warrior senior dogs to be accusations surrounding a found it is possible possible all of our own going concern and Vicious Campaign against russia because russia is a superpower cannot its the americans and the british its lower yield george can he still spread out because its been this way that all script files again ok now let a lot of transparency here but lets get to what i think this is all about and marcus are meant to hear this in my opinion this is my my conjecture is that this is just this one final attempt to. Derail north stream this is what this is really about ok and its putting the germans in a very hard place because Angela Merkel has made it very and shes on the way out shes made it very care very clear during this entire process that this is an economic legal agreement this has nothing to do with politics she said and she pushed it based on those 2 principles now and really whatever is behind this gambit here once the germans to break there were and break their agreements ok which you know i dont like the american civil do it in the drop of a hat the germans are feel very uncomfortable about that and i think this is i think the pressure is not on the russians pressure is on the germans right now go ahead george. Well yes and theres obviously a very Strong Division of opinion within germany you have the German Military and security establishment that is start really embed it in atlanta so they close to the americans. Integrated within nato. And they have absolute every interest in trying to destroy this though it strain to deal however you also have the German Business Community that stands to make a lot of money on this and they say its important to remember this agreement this not stream to agreement was a German Initiative it was a Russian Initiative i mean was it was the journey had a michael i yeah yeah exactly so the way its often presented in the media is as if somehow this is a favor for the russians knows the fate of the germans who have very Serious Problems with energy that made a complete mess of the end if you follow so and it is extremely expensive in germany so they really badly need this cheap source of natural gas so for the germans not to scrap this agreement would be a very devastating blow but the germans havent done what the british did over the script all of them of the british were very skilled at mounting a kind of Global Propaganda Campaign that went to the u. N. Security council and denounced the russians they organized this diplomatic expulsions and so on the germans havent done that its not maybe that the divisions are so deep in germany that are unable to do it on me oh maybe then the germans just simply are not convinced by the you know by the by the whole not only case but again its same with belarus its whats striking is the lack of the driving force as yet that took place of the script out that johns havent yet mounted that kind of wild hysterical campaign that the british. Every day that the moment theyre losing the momentum if they if they dont continue or not and thats why i think that merkels pragmatism will come