Suppose some of us that have a. Disposal. Last time we chased. Each one a little carrying 20 kilos d of drugs this is a 1st offense. For that they just stepped right. Into the very we i mean the monocle men they believe they have this is the this is the me. I dont know maybe they dont make or. Break. Part. Around more. Hello and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered im Peter Lavelle forced regime change playbook and why it is not and will not work and there was also the no bombing saga benefits from this very strange episode. To discuss this im joined by my guest Marcus Papadopoulos in london hes editor of politics 1st magazine and in budapest we cross to jordan samuel he is author of bombs for peace natos humanitarian war on yugoslavia are across up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate when you let me start with george and george lets start with the big everest story because the pira story looks like its kind of morphing into who the venezuelan story of the baltics ok because we have this pretend or recognize from. From lithuania i think it is this moment that they can all sky that shes the president in exile right now are they pulling up why go here because i seriously doubt this would be happening in my own peo had made a phone call go ahead george. Well they arent trying to pull away though but of course the why dont case turned out to be a complete fiasco. And its clear that the Trump Administration isnt terribly happy with the policy that it got stuck with thanks to the pressure from former National Security advisor john bolton so i have my doubts that they go to political i go over this. Because if youre going to give them. Is notable for all the absence of pressure from the United States and i say that in actually taking a rather reckless an approach towards this and without pressure from the americans. I dont think this is going to go very far and i think its so theres already indications that look at shango feels very confident of himself and hes being his usual difficult self with with the russians feeling rather confident that the e. C. At the say you know mark is a i tend to agree with george and on top of it a look at Shea Khamenei made it very public particularly to to rushing to television stations that he isnt least rhetorically officially open to some kind of transition though within the bounds of russian law thats that indicates to me that hes learned the lesson that he can stay but he has to start thinking of an exit here what are your thoughts marcus lets see. How something over the last few weeks what we have to say here about very soon is an attempt by the west to regain syria for the west coast resolution and v. S. E. Is just an attempt to screw against some of its presence and a use in the school a serious and a soul must say of course they were goes back to you know many examples all. So you can color resolutions jujitsu falsehood and free ukraine seashells on and for the songs he shouts under fire and most recently of all ukraines few files and for change but these tendencies cure a battery was always going to fail why because the well i mean were sure save the belorussian population weve gotten cells as possible the russians well they see themselves as possibly lawson family secondly. We should quit more accurately. Ease the facts or province of the Russian Federation and we have seen that seeing the recent times because the Russian Ministry in tandem with about Russian Military has announced see you loose disposes with polands ukraine and about 6 cents to prevent infiltrates is from coming in for a necessary so on those countries and also Russian Special services working alongside Russian Special services have now identified asian protocol consumers all the west in most notably of course. Now the real question is or should he not will see isnt always going to what was he going to succeed and no what it has now done it is shredded for and russias position over lucas shankara because i did not change litter same color then the unions say its all for gosh i. Wish rules which was formulated between yatsenyuk look a stranger in the late 1960 would have come into being by now but look if schenker has so we get a sense crease in case of the helmet russia to resolution who wants to be a presence of the United States now that looks shanker has low. Moderately and without precedent. For assistance in the presence of zion now appears it shows in every leisure each of the kremlin to exercise for christianity so i actually believe peace that innocent person play for the west has actually placed an appearance will go while i believe the material i say shouldnt sooner go off and lay some of the union sites well george but thats the fly in the ointment here i mean and its one of the things that i get very frustrated with looking at the west your narrative because its not about lucas its about the place that we know is be able to spell russia and its relationship with russia and as marcus quite correctly and in rate detail i discuss this is a this is a single state ok at this point here and the problem has been is that its been looked at shank unwilling to implement every single phase in stage of that that he signed up to and so could this is the this is the unreported narrative that whats going on in india rules because its it is kind of a lucas shango problem but for very Different Reasons go ahead yes thats right. Theyre the policy before the election which was a hit by the e. U. And the United States was to try to foster as Much Division between. Belarus and russia as possible and that made a certain amount of geo strategic sense whatever it is makes life difficult for the russians nato the United States regards as a good thing buton as many headaches thats possible but by overplaying their hand in belarus as moch as quite rightly point out. They have now strengthened the the bond between russia and belarus and youre getting them. Russia now that the europeans are sensing the food of their policy and have trying to draw back because i do think its striking that the whole of this propaganda to have. You come off and having all these attractive women around and over the propaganda to try to get oh this is the belarus that we want to recognize this is a legitimate government of belarus thats failed thats thats gone nowhere so it looks to me like we may be heading to was the preelection policy of well lets try to foster division but i think thats extremely unlikely to fail i think that i think that a train that left the station speaking about division than if you look at the reaction of the European UnionMember States its the whole quite go scenario is its really been given a Cold Shoulder because you know were not going to go through this again i think we also have to point out is that the European Union as a whole has ukraine i mean look at what the resources and. And time they put into ukraine and well they kind of got a you know a milk toast version of what they wanted ok because. The fundamental reforms that ukraine needs is not happening right now and again just the billions and billions of euros that went nowhere i personally think and get so marcus on was how much do you think that plays into this kind of it. Give me some part of the europeans about this regime change playbook. Well here again is huge is naturally i was rifle to the United States in Economic Times but also malaysia the European Union is a strategic friends and i owe it to you to say so we can science and that russians and takes us im sure to some ounce of influence over the e. U. Policy by you can i use science to begin. Nazi files and full saying when america place sanctions on the Russian Federation because of the crisis in ukraine which incidentally america was also for off the European Union. By germany was very apprehensive about wanting to place sanctions on the last they did resist but in the end of the year being union it caved into the pressure to phone the United States and i think if we fast forward to 2020 what weve seen in recent times. Yes the European Union has says he player go in that its simply the case that whole and in the 06 a switch a very dangerous countries for russian National Security actually facilitated 6. 100 seats career in the country but i think also mentally the hand of washington is responsible for what we have seen in belarus and i think a piece of the americans are actually emboldened by this high up in ukraine because yes ross analysis money cant be cold its ukraine and loss i mean ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the us and and it has been ever since it came independence in late 990 but nonetheless ukraine as we talk now is integrated and if the west has ukraine is the greatest. Policy challenge to the kremlin so i think the americans have the same bones and by their success in ukraine they obviously did not do their homework so sufficient enough to understand that belarus is not you try and have better risk as i said the facts are a province of the Russian Federation or you can put it is a russian protectorates in her chart market you said that washington doesnt do its own mortgage they thats kind of an understatement because they screw up every step of the way here i think youre right marcus i mean you know washington is in bold but i think in bold and in a sense. Then you can quit it created a quagmire ok were 8 if you know russia has to take the burden here if its not a success and the nominal way its like oh he screwed up that neighborhood it makes the neighborhood unstable thats a victory for us which is a very cynical Foreign Policy go ahead george yes now that youve hit the nail on the head that peter thats exactly what the american think and its. Not. So the weight goes in belarus the americans will say well its a tryout because its a headache for the europeans because its right there on their border its a headache for the russians. And the left well they might say yeah ok you know whats the solution more america because all they say shows that the europeans are unable sort out their own problems so he was and its the same you know you see the same scenario played out in iraq and syria and libya and say ok if they all had a not out. But what is do is theyve been you if you need all these cases you capture elites in specific countries ok and they even toward it within their own in their own country and then within the union youre ok gentlemen to jump in here were going to go to a short break and after that short break more discussion and some real news stay with arkie. A new gold rush is underway and gonna thousands of ill equipped workers off flocking to the gold fields hoping to strike it rich. As day over the homes of our children are torn between gold. Was ready for talk i was doing my best get back to see which side will have the strongest appeal. Welcome back to crossfire or all things are considered im peter lubell remind you were discussing some real names. Ok marcus goes yes which heres a talk about the strange case of natalee the more we learn or dont learn about this the story here about the alleged poisoning of mr noel me which is seen in the west as kind of the leader of the russian opposition to the political status quo i would like to preface but before i ask question is it he hardly has much of a following in russia which you know of course western media would not tell their their audience as you know but it seems to be you know who are you who do you want to believe and i think this is where lee what what the origins of this strange case is about who are you going to believe the russian said that this gentleman left the country with no indication that he had been always and then german Officials Say just the opposite but at the same time not releasing to the public what kind of him from nightmare information they have that would prove that allegation so its kind of poke political football and its really more about Something Else but i want you to react so far. Oh firstly taste and there is no political reason for the kremlin to syria or want to assassinate around i why because its not how they sat in it in Russian Society is absolutely national i dont shine its all Russian Society that is a luxury and alexina found it because he has to say by do you want to marry a russian man and woman as being a fool is cullen all the United States or someone who wants to return to how it was during the 19th nineties by which i mean subservient city americans so he has no sand in whatsoever amongst ordinary russians secondly there is no economic reason for the kremlin so also assassinate neutrality because that is in necessarily jeopardize nor straight and the russians do not want anything to affect the no 3 why because a new strange constant shes a very significant source of revenue for the russian governments friendly you dont have to be a scientist to understand that if someone nice poisons way for a another agent for example not in shock and especially in the confines of an aircraft then pay who are around the person who is being poisoned on actually current city contaminated yes in that case and not passengers adjacency him not carrying crew not the people who treated him well contaminates its treat it differently had attended to it so you assassinate about it why own pace or would they have to laugh at a child journey knowing that as a species hes a cad i suppose and so the americans without a leg he has been poisoned by the kremlin it is absolutely prosperous nonsense there is no reason why the kremlin was once assassinated listen to our. Asked and on the whole i would say this to the germans if they are so sussan that newfound me was some of the senses is poisonous around me by using nothing short and cool to see the evidence of the germans it goes to the kremlin wants us to not allow russian medical doctors and scientists to transition many of the German Authorities to share their medical and scientific findings with the russians is a simple as this statement if you have nothing to hide then you have no reasonable sense in all shapes finds and with a posse i know that isis is what we assume a dog to be accusations surrounding a found me its possible possible all of our own going concern and Vicious Campaign against russia because russia is a superpower cannot its the americans and the british its lower yield george can he still spread out because its been this weve been all script files again ok now let a lot of transparency here but lets get to what i think this is all about and marcus are meant to hear this in my opinion is my my conjecture is that this is just this one final attempt to. Derail north street into this is what this is really about ok and its putting the germans in a very hard place because Angela Merkel has made it very and shes on the way out if shes made it very care very clear during this entire process that this is an economic legal agreement that has nothing to do with politics she said that and she pushed it based on those 2 principles now and really whatever is behind this gambit here once the germans to break there were and break their agreements ok which you know i dont like the american civil do it in the drop of a hat the germans are feel very uncomfortable about that and i think this is i think the pressure is not on the russians pressure is on the germans right now and george. Well yes and theres obviously a very Strong Division of opinion within germany you have the German Military and security establishment that is start really embed it in atlanta so they close to the americans. Integrated within nato. And they have absolute every interest in trying to destroy this dont strain to deal however you also have the German Business Community that signs to make a lot of money on this and they say its important to remember this agreement this not stream to agreement was a German Initiative it was a missile the Russian Initiative i mean was it was the jury had a michael i yeah yeah exactly so the way its often presented in the media is as if somehow this is a favor for the russians knows the fate of the germans who have very Serious Problems with energy that made a complete mess of the Energy Policy and it is extremely expensive in germany so they really badly need this cheap source of natural gas so for the germans not to scrap this agreement would be a very devastating blow but the germans havent done what the british did over the script all of them of the british were very skilled at mounting a kind of Global Propaganda Campaign that went to the u. N. Security council and denounced the russians they organized this diplomatic expulsions and so on the germans havent done that its not maybe that the divisions are so deep in germany that are unable to do it you know maybe then the germans just simply are not convinced by the you know by the by the whole not only case but again its same with belarus its whats striking is the lack of the driving force as yet that the place of the script john is having yet mounted that kind of wild hysterical campaign that the british. Every day that the moment theyre losing the momentum if they if they dont continue or not and thats why i think that m