A broader principle i glad formula one stepped in because at a later stage another driver might Say Something completely different ok thank you both there very interesting debate enjoyed thought Ellis Cashmore on re professor of sociology at Austin University in the u. K. Lead jasper social activist former policy advisor on equality to the mayor of london thank you. Or Great Program take going in moments here in order to find out whats showing wherever you are today up to the shortest of breaks by for naught. Hello and welcome to cross talk where all things are considered im Peter Lavelle forced regime change playbook and why it is not and will not work and there was also the no bombing saga benefits from this very strange episode. To discuss this im joined by my guest Marcus Papadopoulos in london hes editor of politics 1st magazine and in budapest we cross to jordan samuel he is author of bombs for peace natos humanitarian war on yugoslavia are across up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate when you let me start with george and george lets start with the big everest story because the pira story looks like its kind of morphing into the venezuelan story of the baltics ok because we have this pretend or recognized from. From lithuania i think it is this moment that they can all skya that she is the president in exile right now are they pulling a white go here because i seriously doubt this would be happening in my own peo had made a phone call go ahead george. Well a. O. L. Trying to pull a white dove but of course the why dont case turned out to be a complete fiasco. And its clear that the Trump Administration isnt terribly happy with the policy that it got stuck with thanks to the pressure from former National Security advisor john bolton so i have my doubts that they go to political i go over this. Because if youre going to give them. Is notable for all the absence of pressure from the United States and i say that in actually taking a rather reckless an approach towards this and without pressure from the americans. I dont think this is going to go very far and i think its so theres already indications that look at shank 0 feels very confident of himself and hes being his usual difficult self with with the russians feeling rather confident that the e. C. At the say you know mark is a i tend to agree with george and on top of it a look at chez khamenei made it very public particularly to to rushing to television stations that he isnt least rhetorically. Officially open to some kind of transition though within the bounds of russian law thats that indicates to me that hes learned the lesson that he can stay but he has to start thinking of an exit here what are your thoughts marcus lets see. How something over the last few weeks what we have to say here about very soon isnt a stance by the west to her against syria its for the west coast resolution v. S. E. Ease and his hands to screw against some of its presence and a use in the school a serious one a soul must say of course they were goes back many examples all. So you can color revelations jujitsu falsehood and free ukraine seashells on and for his songs he shouts under fire and most recently of all ukraines few files and for change but these headed to see if true a better choice was always going to fail why because the well meaning were sure saved the belorussian population weve gotten cells as possible of the russian well they see themselves as possibly lawson family secondly. We should quit more accurately. Ease the facts or province of the Russian Federation and we have seen that seeing the recent times because the of Russian Ministry in tandem with about russias military has announced see you loose dispose as wish polands ukraine and about 0. 06 to prevent infiltrates is from coming in for a necessary so on those countries and also Russian Special services working alongside Russian Special services have now identified asian protocol consumers all the west in most notably of course me now the real question is or should he not will see isnt always going to what was he going to succeed and no what it has now done it is shredded for and russias position over lucas shankara because i did not change litter same color then the union states all for gosh i. Wish rules which was formulated between yatsenyuk allocation time in the late nineties would have come into being by now look ish and co has so we get a sense crease and came to the helm and russia because look at shaker wants to be a presence of the union sites now that looks shanghai or has low. Moderately and without precedent. For assistance in france and that now appears it shows in every leisure each of the kremlin to exercise for christianity so i actually believe peace that innocent person play for the west has actually placed appearance will know what i believe the material i say shouldnt sooner go off and lay some of the union states well george but thats the fly in the ointment here i mean and its one of the things that i get very frustrated with looking at the west your narrative was because its not about lucas its about the place that we know is be able to spell russia and its relationship with russia and as marcus quite correctly and in great detail i discuss this is a this is a single state ok at this point here and the problem has been is that its been looked at shank unwilling to implement every single phase in stage of that that he signed up to and so could this is the this is the unreported narrative that whats going on in india rules because its it is kind of a lucas shango problem but for very Different Reasons go ahead yes thats right. There the policy before the election which was a hit by the e. U. And the United States was to try to foster a snipe division between. Belarus and russia as possible and that made a certain amount of geo strategic sense whatever it is makes life difficult for the russians nato the United States regards as a good thing buton as many headaches this possible but by overplaying their hand in belarus as moch as quite rightly point out. They have now strengthened the the bond between russia and belarus and youre getting them. Russia now that the europeans are sensing the food of their policy and have trying to draw back because i do think its striking that the whole of this propaganda on behalf of. You kind of scale and having all these attractive women around and over the propaganda to try to get oh this is the belarus that we want to recognize this is a legitimate government of belarus thats failed thats thats gone nowhere so it looks to me like we may be heading to was the preelection policy of well lets try to foster division but i think thats extremely unlikely to fail i think that i think that a train that left the station speaking about division that means if you look at the reaction of the European UnionMember States its the whole quite go scenario is its really been given a Cold Shoulder because you know were not going to go through this again i think we also have to point out is that the European Union as a whole has ukraine i mean look at what the resources and. And time they put into ukraine and well they kind of got a you know a milk toast version of what they wanted ok because this is the fundamental reforms that ukraine needs is not happening right now and again just that the billions and billions of euros that went nowhere i personally think and get so marcus imas how much do you think that plays into this kind of picked up and give me some part of the europeans about this regime change playbook. Well here again is huge is nationally i was rifle to the United States in Economic Times but also malaysia the European Union is a strategic friends and i i so you know i have to say see if we can science that russians and takes us i should amend to some ounce of influence over the e. U. Policy by can i use science to begin. Also you found in food saying when america place sanctions on the Russian Federation because of the crisis in ukraine which incidentally america was also for off the European Union. By germany was very apprehensive about wanting to place sanctions on the russian they did resist but in the end of the year being union it caved into the pressure to phone the United States and i think if we fast forward to 20 train say what weve seen in recent times in better or worse yes the European Union has says he player go in that its simply the case that whole and in the 06 states which are very dangerous countries for russian National Security actually facilitated 6. 100 seats career in the country well i think olson italy the hand washington is responsible for what we have seen in belarus and i think the americans are actually emboldened by that a triumph in ukraine because yes ross analysis money cant be cold its ukraine and loss i mean ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the us and and it has been ever since it came independence in late 990 but nonetheless ukraine as we talk now is integrated and if the west has ukraine is the greatest. Policy challenge to the kremlin so i think the americans have the same bones and by their success in ukraine they obviously did not do their homework so sufficient enough to understand that belarus is not you try and have better risk as i said the facts are a province of the Russian Federation or you can put it its a russian protectorates you know target market you see it washington doesnt do its own mortgage they thats kind of an understatement because they screw up every step of the way here i think youre right marcus i mean you know washington is in bold but i think in bold in the sets. That you can quit it created a quagmire ok where he you know russia has to take the burden here if its not a success and a nominal way its like oh he screwed up that neighborhood it makes the neighborhood unstable thats a victory for us which is a very cynical Foreign Policy go ahead george yes now that youve hit the nail on the head that peter thats exactly what the american think its. Not. The way goes in by the us the americans are saying well lets try out because its a headache for the europeans because its right there on their border its a headache for the russians. And its a left right to say yeah ok you know whats the solution more america because all they say shows that the europeans are unable to sort out their own problems so he was and its the same you know you see the same scenario played out in iraq and syria and libya and say ok if they all had a not oust. But what is do is they then you it in in all these cases you capture elites in specific countries ok and they even toward it within their own in their own country and then within the union youre ok gentlemen to jump in here were going to go to a short break and after that short break and your discussion and some real news stay with arkie. Analysis so wrong. But ill. Just all. Well want to see how this all comes down to. And it. Was. When some people find themselves well the party. System the common ground. A new gold rush is underway in ghana thousands of ill equipped workers are flocking to the gold fields hoping to strike it rich here is a good. Day over the children are torn between gold and education from me was very poor i thought i was doing my best to get back to school which side will have the strongest appeal. Join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and ill be speaking to guest of the world of politics or business im show business ill see you then. Welcome back to crossed up work all Things Considered im peter lubell remind you were discussing some real names. Ok marcus this goes a switch gears and talk about the strange case of natalee meaning the more we learn or dont learn about this the story here about the alleged poisoning of mr noel me which is seen in the west as kind of the leader of the russian opposition to the political status quo i would like to preface by before i asked the question is that he hardly has much of a following in russia which you know of course western media would not tell their their audience as you know but it seems to be you know who are you who do you want to believe and i think this is where lee what what the the origins of this strange case is about who are you going to believe the russian said that this gentleman left the country with no indication that he had been poisoned and then german Officials Say just the opposite but at the same time not releasing to the public what kind of them from nightmare information they have that would prove that allegation so its kind of a political football and its really more about Something Else but i want you to react so far ahead. Oh firstly taste and is not a political reason for the kremlin to syria or want to assassinate around i why because its not how they stand in it in Russian Society is absolutely National Trends all Russian Society that is a luxury and alexina found it because he has to say but do you want to marry a russian man and woman as being a fool is cullen all the United States or someone who wants to return to how it was during the 1990s by which i mean some being city americans so he has no sand in will so are amongst ordinary russians secondly there is no economic reason for the kremlin so also assassinate me because that was in necessarily jeopardize nor straight and the russians do not want anything to affect no strain why because a new strange comes to shes a very significant source of revenue for the russian governments friendly you dont have to be a scientist to understand that if someone sees poisons where for a nerve agent for example not in shock and especially in the confines of an aircraft then people who are around the person who is being poisoned on actually current city contaminated yes in that case and not passengers adjacent to him not carrying crew not the people who treated him well contaminates it. Treat it differently had a tendency so you assassinate about a why only pacer would they have to laugh at a child journey knowing that for safety issues he can i suppose into the americans without a leg he has been poisoned by the friendly it is absolutely prosperous nonsense there is no reason why the kremlin was once assassinated. Found he asked and i will say this to the germans if they are so sussan that newfound me was some of the senses is poisonous around me by using nothing short and cool to see the evidence of the germans it goes to the kremlin wants us not allow russian medical doctors and scientists to transition many of the German Authorities to share their medical and scientific findings wish the russians its a simple as the states if you have nothing to hide then you have no reasonable sense and all share your finds and with a posse i know that isis warrior senior dog to be accusations surrounding a found he is possible possible all alone going concern and Vicious Campaign against russia because russia is a superpower cannot its the americans and the british is lower yield george can he still spread out because its been this way that all script files again ok let a lot of transparency here but lets get to what i think this is all about and markets are meant here this in my opinion is my my conjecture is that this is just this one final attempt to. Derail north stream to this is what this is really about ok and its putting the germans in a very hard place because Angela Merkel has made it very and shes on the way out shes made it very care very clear during this entire process that this is an economic legal agreement this has nothing to do with politics she said that and she pushed it based on those 2 principles now and really whatever is behind this gambit here once the germans to break there were and break their agreements ok which you know i dont like the american civil do it in the drop of a hat the germans are feel very uncomfortable about that and i think this is i think the pressure is not on the russians pressure is on the germans right now go ahead george. Well yes and theres obviously a very Strong Division of opinion within germany you have the German Military and security establishment that is start really embed it in atlanta so they close to the americans. Integrated within nato. And they have absolute every interest in trying to destroy this though its strange to deal however you also have the German Business Community that stands to make a lot of money on this and they say its important to remember this agreement this not stream to agreement was a German Initiative it was russia was a Russian Initiative i mean was it was the journey had a michael i yeah yeah exactly so the way its often presented in the media is as if somehow this is a favor for the russians knows the fate of the germans who have very Serious Problems with energy that made a complete mess of the end if you follow so and it is extremely expensive in germany so they really badly need this cheap source of natural gas so for the germans not to scrap this agreement would be a very devastating blow but the germans havent done what the british did over the script all of them of the british were very skilled at mounting a kind of Global Propaganda Campa