Transcripts For RT Boom Bust 20240712

Though and that is the fact that for Unemployment Benefits a large expanded during this downturn during that for obvious reasons as well and its funny when that happens it makes it very difficult to compare the unemployment numbers. Because were doing very Different Things so that you have lost if you have the same as youve been as youve unemployment before and the same kind of benefits what kind of train starting point would we have seen over concourse odds that question but it is clear we are much much higher so it makes a comparison very very difficult but so as long as you have those use that image ability requirements and larger payouts and the covert partial shutdowns of this were going to carol see high unemployment has come through so that is not going to change anytime soon i think as long as this situation goes on will concurrency well especially of these sectors are already struggling and looks like a lot of these employees arent coming back and theyre having more and more layoffs kristie lets talk about the economist Stephen Roach who is issuing this. Terrifying warning 3 iterating his thesis of the u. S. Dollar plunging 35 percent and puts the probability of a u. S. Double dip recession above 50 percent what is he seeing. So yes we did touch on this previously he issued this warning that the u. S. D. Will plunge a few months back and now hes actually moving up his timeline and expects this collapse to happen by the end of 2021 rather than in 2 years as previously projected so in explaining his outlook roche pointed to the awful 2nd quarter data like you know the one that got basically rushed off because it was bad but not as bad as expected in the market just kind of shrugged it up and kept on rallying up led by tech so the current account deficit and the us which is the wrought us measure of our International Trade imbalance with the rest of world that suffered a record deterioration and then the Net National Savings rate which is the sum of the savings of individuals businesses governments that also reported the decline in the 2nd quarter going back into negative territory for the 1st time since the Global Financial crisis so now you basically have no savings but you also want to grow so we run this current account deficits to borrow surplus savings and that always pushes the currencies lower the dollar even as a reserve currency is not immune to that adjustment so now on top of that you also have the risk of a double dip recession increasing as we enter the flu season and there is no more support after the cares act expired on the horizon and roche you know that there have been double dips in 8 out of the last 11 Business Cycle recoveries so it actually happens more often than not so the chances of a double dip expression if we dont receive our stimulus quickly is quite high without more stimulus and a possible resurgence of coronavirus cases like you said coming this this flu season and you mentioned the ottavio congress has yet to agree on a 2nd stimulus package and even the skinny Coronavirus Relief bill it failed to get passed 13000000 americans are unemployed thousands of businesses have actually permanently close. Billionaire investor mark cuban hes been very vocal about this additional stimulus needed and is even proposing that every household in america they should receive a 1000. 00 every 2 weeks for the next 2 months does his plan sound feasible or do you think well get any additional stimulus by the end of this year. This plan sounds in time infusing a keynesian framework i dont know where the lists are actually trying to that if that really works for years which work are supposed to have the best performing economy in the world stage it doesnt seem to work so well and you have to asses all why a 1000. 00 every 2 weeks for 2 months i mean theres a nice numbers of my lucky and my favorite numbers a 1000 now or if that works or why stop at a 1000 why not go to 5000 why not go 220000 when i give you a 1000000 dollars every week of my think you know exactly where i go this is a suggestion that im a small scale so these things tend to not work. Time and time again people subscribed i dont think theres much evidence that you were the last loser to russia you were perfectly so i dont think that if you will those who were against it because most people do subscribe to that point of view so in terms of congress it looks like basically until the election things are kind of stark i think the democrats are very unlikely to pass any sort of relief package at this stage that might help donald trump and so theyre sort of at a standstill. Gridlock but i dont necessarily think thats a bad thing for the economy overall i think because when you sort of jobs adapt to the faster you can do the best. The government stimulus an interference with might actually slow that process down and it just might but still the millions of people that are without jobs and and yes getting some of that extended unemployment however there are so many new ones americans are just planning or actually applying for these jobless claims as we saw the numbers still close to a 1000000 now kristie even as a market regains its footing from some several days of hard selling gold to the traditional safety asset now its not doing well either is the gold bull actually dead. No i dont think the bull run is dead but it did fall quite hard to support level at the 1902 now a 2 month low so the support line is broken which is concerning but i think it is far from being completely dead because were gold to be actually debt you actually have to believe that the fed is going to tighten Monetary Policy and the dollar is going to remain strong something that we just talked about is not the case and the big selloff that we just witnessed in Precious Metals and stocks was in part because the fed didnt promise more stimulus during the september at the meeting so ok they reiterated their stance and commitment to extraordinary Monetary Policy but theyve been saying that there hasnt been anything extra theyve already warm allies that buy the market and the market wanted something extra they didnt get that so the market to back up and threw a temper tantrum so in the long run both gold and digital gold ask that things such as quite are going to catch a major tail whether because the fed already committed to maintaining q yet current levels thats bullish for gold the fed is printing money at record pace and now the money supply has increased at record levels for 5 straight months thats very bullish for gold so to believe the gold bull run is over you have to believe that the fed is completely done with stimulus something that as you just said drawn powell capitol hill is already pushing for more pushing for more but will they get the more you think by the end of this year. I dont think by the end of this year but the fed also has other other tricks as pocket you know theyve been saying they have other tools up their sleeve that theyre trying to keep in the back pocket to see around that time a tabio what do you think will the Federal Reserve make another move. I think. As much of this not as they possibly can so i wouldnt expect them to expand even further unless we see a quite severe correction the markets if the market comes down 1520 percent then i think drone power will jump back into action and start printing more money to support that market but i think absent that kind of correction hes probably going to lie low for a bit and just as christie said just. Saying were going to stay the course im going to stay close to 0 percent Interest Rates for as far as i can see we can actually push Interest Rates a bit lower as weve seen in europe in which push it into negative territory if you think thats going to help so we there is certainly president of the markets that we can see that happen in the u. S. As well and that will be no surprise if we see that the west coast kristie i end up having a randy c. E. O. Of open eyes ill see thank you both for breaking this down for us. Us Clinical Trial of astra zeneca is covert 1000. 00 vaccine are means on hold while the drug maker partnered with Oxford University to conduct its base 3 trials which was paused after a u. K. Recipient fell ill nearly 3 weeks ago the drug maker is still waiting for federal approval to resume u. S. Clinical trials astra zeneca c. E. O. Pascoe soria said we are the sponsor of the u. S. Study we then provided all this information to the f. D. A. And we are waiting to hear their decision meanwhile us leaving Infectious Disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci told congress he and his team are cautiously optimistic that there will be a vaccine widely available by spring of 2021 were not going to have all of the doses available for example by the end of december they will be rolling in as the months go by and by the time you get to maybe the 3rd or 4th month of the 2021 then youll have doses for every one of. Us firm is now facing millions of dollars in fines after it was caught bribing officials in brazil venezuela and ecuador over the last decade this as the u. S. Ramps up sanctions targeting venezuela and some of its closest allies are rachel 11 joins me now to discuss rachel what do we know about this company and the deals that its actually being accused of well there are a lot of serious claims of corruption here and its all surrounding this asphalt making company out of florida called sergeant Marine Incorporated now the reason that were talking about this case right now is because the department of justice has actually released new details after the company agreed to a plea deal so we now know that they stand accused of paying millions of dollars in bribes to government officials in brazil venezuela and ecuador to win contracts from state controlled Oil Companies in those countries so as a result now Sergeant Ryan incorporated has agreed to pay 16600000. 00 after its estimated that they made around 38000000. 00 from those deals big. 2010 and 2018 so were talking about nearly a decade of corruption here from Just One Company rachel what do we actually know about these these 3 countries that were targeted by these deals well if you look at the list we have 3 countries that at the time that these deals were played out they all had governments that the u. S. Government was opposed to now since then ecuador and brazil have both sworn in new leaders that the u. S. Highly approves of but venezuela has not has what weve seen as weve seen the u. S. Government continue to ramp up this campaign against venezuela calling for the overthrow of president Nicolas Maduro ramping up sanctions and theyre even still doing that this week President Trump announced new measures targeting not only venezuela but also its close allies cuba and nicaragua simply for the fact that he said their governments did not align and were not doing enough to partner with the United States. Well this week the United States also targeted iran with new sanctions whats the latest there what do we know i was right we had even more sanctions and you know when you think about iran and venezuela you see these 2 countries that have been targeted very heavily by the United States government in recent years especially as were now dealing with a Global Pandemic so this year what weve seen happen is that are wrong has come along theyve sent tankers with supplies to venezuela so that they were able to help them refine their crude oil and then theyve helped even more by taking the oil and then exporting it and you may think that this is a great plan for these 2 countries that have been hit incredibly hard by the United States was saying she owns but of course the u. S. Government did not like that either as of a came along and added even more measures to iran and venezuela this week especially saying that because those 2 countries have found ways to undermine the old measures and get some new sanctions more sanctions theyre looking for alternative ways because theyve been hurt so badly not just from the sanctions but obviously covert 19 as its become a Global Economic issue theyre trying to come together and at least what they think will help their countries arties Rachel Blevins correspondent thank you so much for for that report i think it. Time now for a quick break but stay here because when we return 2 u. S. Companies may be closer to finishing the deal for ticktock and other trumpet ministration may just have to wait for china to give the ok as we go to break here the numbers are because. I. I. I. Know we were talking to you all. That technology should work for people but. A robot must obey the orders given to human beings except where such orders would conflict with the 1st law. Events of the day should or should be very careful about Artificial Intelligence and the point of view screen is to face trust of the shia. Areas chozen with Artificial Intelligence where some of the deep. Must protect its own existence its nexus for the. Time of the time called her ration to repeat the same mantra sustainability its very important to excel or a transition to sustainable prize board sustainability stay number man on a more equitable and sustainable well. They claim their production is completely hamas. Into the models and it builds on the Companies Want us to feel good about buying their products while the damage is being done far away and this is something all this must be done even as i made much of. This is the mood in me doing the name and im stunned seemed to be the best understood. Cash cow and is drawing alfonzo along very hard theres cherishing pain change guard service. His 1st words were that allow us to youre a challenging post youve got 2 years to live. I have no doubt that what happened was scriven. Thats causing trademark it is a 1000000000. 00 industry these companies how does huge financial motivation to solve these problems. Numerous stocks showing that doctors were keen to chest x. Ray concentrates for infectivity on their patients one keeps them doctors that launched a plate. Current system why they were keeping them secure those. People still got i dont know which question michel being allowed to live where so many are. Supposed to be american politics during this election cycle the economy in a big scary state. The only constant for example is insecurity economists debate individual recovery based. Education but is the reality the change that. A coalition of apple critics are forming an alliance to pressure apple and other apps or operators to change the marketplace rules the coalition for fairness laid out 10 outs or principles which include fighting against paying unfair reasonable or discriminatory fees or revenue shares typically apple tart as a commission of 15. 00 or 30 percent for apps using and its Payment System thats just to give you an idea and a statement the group said the gatekeeper platforms that operate these stores must not abuse the the control they enjoy and must adhere to oversight to ensure their behaviors promote a competitive market and provide consumers with equitable choice the Group Includes some pretty big names including spotify match group inc and fortnight creator of the games. Tick tocks Parent Company by chance has taken another step forward to creating a new company by the name of tick tock lobel this is the company that will be partly owned by dance and partly owned by u. S. Companies or will and walmart now by chance has officially submitted its application to Chinas Ministry of commerce for a Technology Export license that license will ultimately determine whether or not this deal goes forward from the chinese side joining us now to discuss our boom bust cohost and investigative journalist ben swan and john dean of the miami school of business ben lets start with you why is this export license such a big deal. Well its a big deal because essentially it was only a couple of weeks ago that china revised its rules for what kind of Technology Required licensing in order to be sold by the Chinese Government and beijing would have to sign off on these cells essentially the laws were kind of re. I was a written but they were really tailored in this case specifically towards ticktock now it would involve other technology as well but were talking about any kind of technology that has algorithms built into it Voice Recognition any kind of facial recognition essentially everything that would power the algorithms for to talk are included in this so what the chinese have done is they set themselves up in a position where they say if youre going to sell we have to give final approval on it you cant do it without us that takes about 30 days for this process to run its course even though that application has been received but well see if the chinese sign off on it i dont necessarily see them doing it well and good quality we know theyre on the chinese side this license will determine again whether the deal can go forward do you believe the chinese will sign off weve heard a few days ago that the chinese side said that it was reasonable later they said that they werent going to approve the deal whats going on. Well 1st of all its a bit of a difficult question as to what the deal actually is because on the one hand weve heard that oracle and walmart will take 20 percent of the new company take talk global and. Buy daunce will retain 80 percent of the company but this is contradicted by a statement that oracle issued to the effect the americans would control the majority of the new company and then in addition to that theres some ambiguity in fact considerable ambiguity around whether or not the operational control of the. Top global assets will be with the new. Company or will or will remain with by daunce and whether the new company will have more than simply Data Management responsibilities and privileges so theres a lot yet to on ravel in terms of the different statements where hearing about what the content of the deal is so as it stands at the moment its look a little bit difficult to say whether or not the chinese will or will not accept the deal because were still in the negotiating period remember that President Trump issued the order on aug 14th regarding take talk and the order has a 90 day fuse on it where about half way through the 90 days so i think were still in the jockeying for position stage of the overall negotiation so this could technically go until the last minute the deadline of november essentially by elections which i would think trump would want to try to push before then especially this whole ownership thing we were understand where the United States and where he has made it vocal he wants. To have 0 ownership so again that ownership much like you explained is very confusing and all depends on what that contract says but the Chinese Government theyre calling this deal to sell to oracle and walmart bulling and extortion is there an upside for beijing and approving this deal at all. Im not sure that there really is you know the Chinese State media seems to be indicating that theres no upside for beijing to do this in that i think about what dean was just said for a minute though he was basically pointing out a real truth here either oracle walmart and by dance are lying about the agreement that they have they dont actually have an agreement or they really dont have an agreement and theyre all just trying to scramble and figure one out before the clock runs out either way its very unclear what the deal is and heres the big question for beijing why. Why would china agree under any circumstances to let this deal go forward if the deal goes forward then walmart and oracle take a big chunk of tick tock why would that matter to the Chinese Government why would they care if to talk exists in the United States however there is an upside if donald trump is reelected to this prolonged back and forth between china and the u. S. To allow u. S. Consumers who want chinese products like to talk to be angered by the fact that they now lose out on something if if china just signs over to talk and allows it to be sold into this new this new to talk global ultimately trump wins because he says look i was able to get this for an American Company and the chinese have basically given up an asset that whether theyre actually collecting data or not theres no upside for them to let it go but there might be an upside to saying arguing 3 that your president took away something that you actually liked all those you know 14 to 26 year olds who are on sector especially because its become so popular here in the United States and during at coronavirus in quotes by putting tick tock into the hands of the Chinese Government does that leave a downside for the u. S. In the event that take talk is banned it seems like the time the ministration is really just trying to get the deal in order much like ben said to claim the double take the when. Will this issue has become a cause celeb or in the Chinese Media its become a national patrie audit issue defense of tech talk and so very difficult i think for the Chinese Government to agree to a deal that in some way gives up Chinese Technology but what could possibly happen where there could be a solution is in the licensing arena in other words if theres a mechanism. Whereby chick talk us. Its 100000000 users data licensing all of the tick Talk Technology to walmart an oracle to. Execute that technology in the u. S. Market and for that data or that is generated by the 100000000 followers of take talk to be protected that is where i think the potential solution lies but i think this is not frankly a particularly big issue in the overall china u. S. Relationship unlikely to be of great importance if it solved or not solved before the election its not and its funny that they in the United States have given it this much to important both china and the u. S. And this tit for tat now its about tick tock then say china did have access to the data say that they actually do if it is sold to the u. S. What makes a difference if they already have that data. Well i dont really know what the u. S. Is thinking that china is doing with this data that makes it a National Security issue that by the way facebook and instagram are doing with their data does not make it a National Security issue i understand that china as it as a nation state is different than a tech company but im not sure its more dangerous than a tech company to be able to hold and retain that data but theres Something Else thats important here they didnt quote is right when he says that ultimately this isnt a big deal but its a big deal in terms of american usage in that when y. Way was going on most americans didnt use what we products this is a product americans use and so it affects more people in terms of the overall p. R. Of a very good point made boom bust cohost been so on and doing it john quality of Miami Harvard Business School thank you both so much for your time today thank you. Thats all for now catch him bust on demand on the brand new portable to yap available on your apple and Android Devices or simply check it out at portable dot t. V. If the next time. Shows seem wrong when old quotes just dont hold. Any you get to shape out these days becomes agitated and in games from it because betrayal. When so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. Its going to be hard to reclaim freedom and were going to have to work at it but as people recognize from examples like she. What repression Digital Systems need to. Buy i hope people will start fighting men saying we wont tolerate systems. Streets in our homes that cant possibly track what were doing. Time after time corporations repeat the same mantra sustainability its very important to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport sustainability stay number may not be more equitable and sustainable well. They claim their production is completely hominis. Because the models and. Companies want us to feel good about buying their products while the dead. Just being done far away this is Something Else this must be going down even as im a new mother loses the moves of news to me didnt even im stunned seen by me understood woods who is going. To write. Im going to. Miss a culture war consumes american politics during this election cycle the economy remains in a big area state millions of people live on the margins the only constant for them is the insecurity economists debate and eventual recovery basically go the you will be ended no but is the reality the changing of the permanent monger. Canas calendar is downright alfonzo any longer and theres changing pay change dard serve our right. His 1st words were at a lot of us here a challenging post youve got 2 years to live. I have no doubt that what happened was scriven. Lets concentrate market is a 1000000000. 00 industry these companies how does huge financial motivation to sow these products there are numerous stocks showing that doctors were keen to chest x. Ray concentrate straight infectivity on that patients wont give them doctors the wrong stoplight. Terms or stuff why they would keep me from secure those whose day. People still die and im always question or so i tried being far too late when so many have. Come to. Russia says germany is stalling the probe into the alleged poisoning of election avali by holding back crucial data moscows envoy to the Global Chemical weapons watchdog talks are team. Through deliberately delaying the process impeded the completion of the preliminary inquiry in russia that was held in order to ascertain whether there is an offense or not. French mayors have voiced their anger over the governments tough new coronavirus restrictions saying that they were never consulted. And the pentagon is accused of spending up to a 1000000000. 00 of crown of virus funds on military gear