Well, to discuss that, im now enjoyed by conflict research or 3 and the roof glass will prefer the glass. So its great to talk to thank you very much for your time. Youre welcome. Now i know you started complex for much of your academic career. You in reach the field by introducing your own modal of conflict escalation and hang on to a few years ago. For most people. This was a very academic, very fair reticle, very remote discipline. Conflicts were far away, it wasnt something that had a direct impact on peoples lives, at least on the lives of people in the western hemisphere. And i think thats changing now because regardless of where you are in the world, you will feel its various expanded, but he will feel the consequences off of the ukraine in conflict. I wonder if that has changed your own approach to this object in any way to some extent because the nature of the model has changed. And i think if they say, cyber boy, for instance, and new technology and spend all that. So we are not dealing with the traditional understanding before which is more or less regulated by International Law to new kinds of i would say of fighting of competition, etc. Ipad and make it more difficult also to control that isnt the nature of the conflicts that has changed or do you think its perhaps the cumulative effect of the old dynamics that has reached the boiling point one if can no longer be contained this is not so near because you always have different stages of escalation and that is a moment its exploding or boiling. Thats what we can see clearly is that if im referring to my model of 9 steps of escalation, even if youre at one stage of escalation, live at the moment, stage 8, which is a very, very, very, very deep escalation. Youll see them that on the same stage on the same step. You have various red lines. In addition, also the general character of thing. Its a step 8, does not change, but you pass several red line slides. Thats what criminals to stop up to the happened next, all occasionally or but on purpose as a part of this thread that feed the difference. So the various grades and steps. Oh, so it is still on the same basic step of escalation. This becomes more clear because of some model and kind of um and then and cyber board cetera. I hope we can come back to your model of called success portion a little bit later. But before we do that, i want to ask you this. I, i know that you see the war in ukraine is not just the single war, but the raw, the intertwining of 3 different conflicts. Do political conflict between the west and the east and interest states war between russia and ukraine and in try. Ukraine struggled between pro western and pro russian ukrainians. Which one did you think of this point is the most intact in towns and perhaps the most irreconcilable . The most intense is the rational crane in. So because thats on the battlefields. Oh, those are the dynamics of the tang, of political conflict is actually because theyre getting visible in the, in the rational cranium conflict and also the in trust grained and war and is also closely connected to the russian and, or cranium. Well, id say but for they basically talk about that later, but for the solutions you have to concentrate them to deal with the 3 different types in a different way. Uh, you know, uh, exactly 20 years ago i was a student that one american university. I actually took a course on the theories off my interest is more fair and i still have this uh, sent a mental artifact of the times when uh, you know, it was just the see a reticle discipline for me, but i remember them back down in, in in my classes, we discussed the ukrainian case on the tension between russia and nato. Was there at the tension between different parts of ukraine, pro western in progression. It was there, but what was lacking of that time was this Kinetic Interest a conflict . What allowed it to uh, take place, what pushed on that because for quite some time uh, it seems that 2 other types of conflict uh, work contain its is difficult to talk about clauses in analogy to natural science. Causality because its is, it is a situation the dynamic is one of open enter relationship and of, of circular causality. Mother of a single linea of one causality. So it is, it moments you had a combination of as well. The intra ukrainian difficulty is a kind of a civil war uh because of the nationalist, extreme nationalist government, which after the made on protest the guts to power and strive to suppress the suppressed the protest movements and, and the hope less often around skin and to this point, well it lets, lets be uh, concrete here and ill just suppressing the product that has, i mean they, they were present violent in terms of suffering, the linguistic rights and the Political Rights as well as what it was just about the product testing. No, no, no, no, in the beginning of the session which was made by the new government which came to bubble off, the dental coverage had to leave the country. And was that the, the for a bit to use the russian language as they all fish, all in communicating this administration. They were creating an administration. And 1st the rep protest movements from real guns goodness, odessa was in the predictor of concentra. And, and the really really suppressed by even military actions, organized and commanded by kids, by the government, by the new government. And they became more, more, more like an ex dave it is because those who professor turns home more mode to become separate tests. So theres a, well, that is the future, but then the crane in state. So weve failed to be protected in a better way. If we come get closer to the union of the ups, the independent states, you have on both sides of the recreate insights. You have as well, ordinary military forces and also relates you a private malaysia. They already pro crane inside the smell. And you have, you had malaysia support by, by russia and you had to protest. And so it became most violent and a real, a real world. Now i know that russia was the one of course to illinois, this special uh, military operation. Uh, which is used in the west as a sort of pre tax to raise all the underlying context and put the blame squarely on uh on las glen. Im not fishing for your excuse or for the crumb infections. I think the criminal will have to face responsibility for that regardless of our discussion. But i strongly believe that the west as well, contributed in a great deal to, to these dynamic. Now, how do you as a research or understand weston and major strategy visa view russia prior to february 2022. And since then i started only because look at the intra are creating inside. I showed those look because im talking about 3 was were trying to mingled but at the same time, youll have youll have the tensions between a lot of the west, but the trends atlantics system, which is not be the convent uh the old west as renewed from the from the cold war, but it was a new system to trans atlantic. And on the other hand, not the east, with some of the union, what, what russia, but china, the, youre a z and system actually, that is a difference. So with different dynamics of because of the hedge among neil and the dynamics up on the one hand you is a losing more and more influence in the rule, not being any longer the Police Officer ruled. And on the other hand, that uprising china in and kind of reliance this with russia. But the china was for the United States and nato, much more actually a challenge. Them the russian because of the, of the dissolution of to 70 indian, the boss. No. A no similar system like the native because the bus sho, 3 d community uh, bus dissolved. If i wasnt such a big challenge for the United States, what was the purpose of, you know, acting very provocatively, these india, russia with major expansion . Because i think you would agree that most because thinking of many times thats what is what it is thinking in ukraine. Is actually the status quan, its the United States that wanted to change it as one to neutral ukraine. Ukraine that could do whatever ones politically would militarily, it should not be used as a bulwark against russia, which i mean for most the searchers is the existing mclean. How do you understand the west and push, even if you say russia wasnt such a big press, 4 for the west. I have to refer again to the dissolution of the so junior, in the russian partial treaty system disappear. Last is all and all the all, and then they to getting more and more close the, the, the does the russian border because of the new members. And, and the publication for the best perceived by russia, by the government of russia was that of, to poland. A check republic and ontario became members of the nature and, and the government, the pressure of us consulted and did not actually ok to this because they saw that theyre secure the interest to have been respected. But later, when the bell, dick republics became members they, they, me the comments or the signals of disagreement of the russian government which ignored really. And then we have that even the close to the russian border. And they saw the vist and arresting. And how do you call it to, for from the south and yeah, this the launch size. Yes. And the, but i mean, that was still a little bit further away. But the ukraine, i mean every, every research or in the United States knows what ukraine means for us to historically and send to mentally, but even mean purely military terms. Its too close to moscow. What was the i, im genuinely struggling to understand the strategy behind it. Because uh, surely they could not have expected mosca would, would ignore the threat like that because i mean, even in old military manuals they, they have to react. Im not sure with the but i really got what your question is because i stopped at answering by looking at, lets say, the chair, political context and. And then with the maneuvers which were organized by later in the baltic republic and in the black sea, at the same time when the president of the of duel created, the order is actually to prepare to regain control on the cri may, uh, and to end on the plus, so at the same time you had the maneuvers and at the same time youll have my movers on this, on the russian side, close to the, to the well crane and border. And these were actually seen by both sides as pro locations to and, and lets do to escalate with scenarios of threats on both sides. And the danger all was is that to be credible if your threats threaten that you have to stop to, to implement the little bit so that people say yes, thats a serious threat. And thats just kind of a phony. What was the 2nd level without any threats . We have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back peacefully in couple of minutes stationed the hi. Im rick sanchez and im here to plan with you whatever you do. Do not watch my new show. Seriously. Why watch something thats so different. Little opinions that he wont get anywhere else. Welcome to please or do the have the state department to see i a weapons bankers, multi 1000000000 dollar corporations. Choose your fax for you. Go ahead. I changed and whatever you do, dont marshall state main street because im probably going to make you uncomfortable. My show is called stretching time. But again, its not. We dont want to watch it, because it might just change the way you to take a fresh look around as a life kaleidoscopic isnt just a shifted reality distortion by power type vision with no real opinions. Fixtures designed to simplify will confuse really once a better wills, and is it just because it shows you fractured images, presented to this, but can you see through their illusion going underground . Can the welcome back to World Reports with conflicts to research or risk russell present level before the break we were talking about the various publications or um escrow a tour, a dynamic that proceed into ukrainian conflict. And i know that for the last couple of years, and so i can take it as many western strategies, but particularly American Strategies have been writing about a proxy war as a substitute for the actual kinetic conflicts. And i think when it comes to russia, you know, one of the reasons why russia had to directly interview in your career is to do away with the something you, its your why the west saying that we are all peaceful at the same time pursuing very aggressive policies these itd be a rush, or these, the post is that the russia perceived as aggressive. Do you think this traveling just in the west actually allowed for a possibility of russia responding genetically and youre in, do you think that is, even though theoretically the idea there that a proxy measures do not exclude the possibility of re a war, but in fact, they may make it even more likely that an image which you have been describing trust. Now, i actually am used to by both sides of it, say again the trans atlantic and the european side as the legitimize do to increase the res, etc. And to prepare for the case thats the other side, would start with an address. And we know that the perception of in such a situation is always. So thats the one side. So that is the, the other side started and the other side is scale to off having cost any, any troubles and stopped it while i get tickets. So this, this is actually whats happened since ive, lets say that 2000 when, when some of say of the to read is bridge where a step which existed to do control and to reduce ops and especially no comment has been broken from the western side. Really western side, the United States with the tech in libya, and 2001 or iraq as a 30, etc. And all the other hand of the roof russian intervention in georgia in 2008 off to the invitation of an aide made to, to georgia. And to create to become members in 2008 in march, bucharest. And answer you have this in this period of actually the building up scenarios of threats on, on both sides. So i heard you say that your claim is being held hostage and these big power rivalry, which i think affords the certainly valence all from you know, of an innocent victim and being a student of psychology. I know that the victim pulled in the invitation of the say, i know the same things because a victim lies behavior is a can actually be very exploitative and theres a certain strength to, uh, being a victim. And i want to ask you, um whether you believe that your brain was truly in a sense, you know, a hostage here, or whether it deliberately tried to insert themselves in a position when theyve can sell itself to the biggest bid or um, you know, play on their own this rivalry, im really sure that at the beginning when Russian Troops entered the crane. So talking about february, last yeah, thats the, thats this. A tech was based on the same miscalculation hope, the russian side as well and miscalculation on the friends atlantic side. The message of this very 1st of the very 1st stage was our, the moms, a serious to monster. Thats the ne, to should withdrawal from a ship should get out because its too close to the rushing area of interest. And also also that the old crane never should become a member of the native, but the russian government decided really to, to invade to at tech. Theyll create it in the expectation with expedition input b, s very short operation. Not, not really of war, but in Something Like a sanction against full members of, of the empire. But then the cost of a surprising resistance on the crane is live. Then the Russian Military has to change the plans again and again and then discover no, its not a matter of a couple of hours a days to occupied the cream by occupying the capital. The reason of the hope, the expectation boss that no real serious cox could start about a new architecture of security and peace. Because the old one was up to late actually for years already. And the, the, the months from the, especially for on the russian side. Because it was not, not long the soviet and empire, but it was a smaller country. And less powerful was because of the, the say this also more efficient, the more cognizant of the way if he uses his power, its still pretty powerful. Im in like in terms of military industrial complex. I think it has a yes. Me quite a good couple capacity there. Yes. Yes. But i mean, and the, the international relationship. Because the big it got to a balanced, a. P, a nato, and then only restaurant what, how the site and more and more, the growing at the growing of the native system. It was really could not be north and longer. And therefore, my idea of us that the idea of it over but its pretty guys, it was called a quick break conquering campaign, etc. Would then mean so ok, we have. 2 to admit just that security i could extra fees that gotcha is not up to date. We have to do something and the, the moms which exists it already. Yvette. The nate, the should withdrawal even from germany and, and shut knots, try to get the little green also as a member member of the nature which was the invitation of march 2008 during the broker as conference. So when i said that the, the message of, of the new brain is used as a hostage in order to know both pressure on rail negotiation and reconsidering the existing security system. Uh huh. Well, uh, we both know that these negotiations uh never happened. Um the war it is uh what it is, as you mentioned according to your modal as level 8, which stands for total insulation. Um what can possibly allow us to move backwards rather than forward to level 9 and the base associated with it. You know that thats been many tens um off of the governments comforters, etc, in order to start with folks and ceasefire, etc. And they have not been successful. And if i look at, at those attempts, because i could see that most of them was based on, on, on some wrong assumptions. And most of them were only appealing to russia and, or korean. But they ignore the fact that they to washington really the main causes of the conflict. Also, it took place of crating and territory. It is the tension between the trans atlantic and the russian or the, the, your asian system there. And the appeals of various government. So the red diplomatic initiatives quite a lot of the sales rep from prusio and african delegation of this year in june and july again. And so thats the problem posted the keys and must go. I said, yes, we would enter into negotiations, but we have some break conditions and 1st, the other side has to comply with that. So and so, and so ends up and they were actually preventing that talks, could start at all these, these ideas could have been an topic, an issue of negotiation, but not as a prior condition. And so, or, for instance, they, uh, they typed in an initiative or they, um, an mexico, the, there was not really and addressing the, the washington and the brussels. I mean native as being the main ex, this only appealing to russia and why we choose a, which is a mistake off the list as well. I mean, the, you cannot solve the conflict to invalid. The bring one of the top belligerence and sponsors in revisit the last one we have to