Red lines that cannot be crossed, israel awaiting a ground operation. Kaczynskis party won the elections, but lost its place in the government, a story from poland. Tensions have been rising in the middle east all week. Emotions are mixed up. In sympathy israel, against the backdrop of the barbaric cruelty of hamas , quickly. Overshadowed by the retaliatory actions, the complete gas blockade and its massive bombings, the tragedy in the alahli hospital, where hundreds of people died, blurred the visit of the us president. His meeting with arab leaders fell through, the outcome of the negotiations in israel, bidens statement that the hospital was hit by another team, that is, not the israelis. The state department called an International Investigation into the incident inappropriate. A rather outdated idea of how an israeli story is perceived by american by voters. Among democrats, the views are much more balanced than the unconditional support for israel that he declared. Perhaps there was something significant behind closed doors, but if all the us president achieved was not a specific promise to send 20 truckloads of humanitarian aid into gas, a state Department Clerk would be enough for that. The idf is formed by conscription and consists of three types of armed forces, ground, air force and naval, its total the number in peacetime is about 177,000 people. Both men and women are required to serve in the army. The mobilization reserve in case of war is about half a million, and full mobilization is more than 3 million people. Thanks to this, the israeli army has won all the arabisraeli wars since the war of independence in 4849. The arab armies were never able to achieve even a two toone advantage on the battlefield. For economic reasons, they could not afford to conscript so many people into the army. Now, according to the global portal firepower among the armies of the world, tsahal ranks eighteenth. The army of egypt is in fourteenth place, and iran is in seventeenth. Under the terms of the kempdevet Peace Agreements with egypt, signed in 788, israel receives 3. 5 billion annually and free of charge from the United States for military needs. Thus, in less than half a century, israel received more than 150 billion. American equipment and weapons were purchased with them, and part of the money went to the military. Development and production of weapons. The backbone of the sahal Armored Forces is merkava tanks designed in israel, about half a thousand vehicles. There are also obsolete american m60 british centurion. The israeli army has more than 10,000 armored personnel carriers and 5,500 artillery pieces of various systems. The air force has more than 200 older american f15 and f16 fighter jets, as well as newer ones. 35, apache and cobra helicopters and numerous drones. There are powerful air defense systems. American patriot complexes, joint with the usa head or rro3 and our own very Effective Development of the iron dome. Experts believe that tel aviv could have up to 200 Nuclear Warheads installed on missiles and erichon with a range of up to 6,500 km, which can be launched from israeli ones. Dolphin submarines purchased from germany. Israel itself neither confirms nor denies the presence of weapons of mass destruction. Everyone froze in anticipation of a ground operation by the israeli army; not only the fate of gaza depends on its scale and nature, but also how much the conflict will grow, whether it will turn into a regional war, in particular, whether there will be the risk of drawing iran, israels main antagonist, into it; iran seeks regional dominance, it operates through a network of shiite organizations associated with iran, like hezbollah or. Proiranian groups in syria, where tehrans position is strengthening. The houthis in yemen, and the shiite militias in iraq, iran has long established ties with hamas with representatives in lebanon, and the Islamic Jihad is virtually completely under iranian control. Iran is actively working inside israel with the palestinians in the west bank, with israelis of arab origin. Iran openly announced that his goal is that by 2040 there will be no state of israel. This is actually unprecedented when one state declares this way in relation to another israel will do everything to eliminate the threat. What iran claims about israels fate is a reminder of its irresponsible behavior, not what they want to attribute to us, they need such interpretations for their own purposes. The same reproaches can be returned to israel. They openly interfere in irans internal affairs and seek to undermine the country and change the regime. Irans position is that if israel pursues a policy like it is now in gaza, for example, it will face insoluble problems that will destroy the state itself. The israeli army first entered lebanon in march 78 , when the civil war was in full swing there. In the south of the country, militants of the palestine liberation organization, Yasser Arafat, reigned supreme, planning to carry out terrorist attacks on those for 6 days , the israeli army reached the litani river, occupied the cities of tire and saida, then left, leaving control over them to its ally, the army of lebanon, led by the former major of the lebanese army, saad haddad. In june 1982, the israeli army again invaded lebanon. The operation was named peace of galilee and turned into largescale military operations with heavy street fighting. As a result. Which beirut was taken. Palestinians, led by Yasser Arafat , evacuated to tunisia, and israeli troops remained in southern lebanon until 2000. These events were called the first lebanese war. June 25, 2006, on the border with gaza and as a result of a palestinian attack on a post the israeli army in the area of kibbutz, kerem shalom, killed two soldiers and kidnapped israeli corporal gillad shalit. For. During the liberation, israel began operation summer rains, which lasted from june to november. 3,000 Israeli Soldiers were involved in it, they were opposed by about 9,000 militants. During the hostilities , about 400 palestinians were killed. The israeli side lost five soldiers. Shalit was released only in 2011, in exchange for 100 palestinian prisoners. In parallel with the operation in gaza in july 2006, it began. Second lebanese war. Hezbollah militants attacked an israeli patrol and captured the bodies of two soldiers. This was an attempt to repeat the kidnapping of an israeli soldier, as was the case with shalit. In response, israel launched a military operation, a worthy retaliation. The strikes targeted not only hezbollah militants and rocket launchers who bombed northern israel, but also lebanese infrastructure, including the residential area of beruto. After 34 days, the israeli army reached the river. And ceased hostilities. During the second lebanon war, 170 israelis were killed, more than 700 izbala militants, as well as about 1,200 lebanese police, military and civilians. In december 2008, january 2009, by decision of Prime Minister ehud olmert , one of the largest operations in the gas sector cast lead was carried out. It began after more than 80 mortar shells were fired at israel from gaza. Three regular israeli brigades and more than 10,000 reservists entered gaza. They were opposed by 15,000 hamas fighters. According to the un, in three weeks of fighting in the gaza strip , about half a thousand palestinians were killed, from half of whom are civilians. About 4,000 houses were completely destroyed by the gas. On the israeli side, 10 soldiers were killed. During the operation it was not possible to achieve complete cessation. Rocket attacks from palestinian militants, but their intensity has decreased significantly. The bloodiest military operation was the line of defense or the indestructible rock. Carried out in julyaugust 2014, as before, its goal was declared to be the destruction of hamas infrastructure. Israel deployed large forces of infantry, engineering troops, tanks units, air force over 82,000 reservists. They were opposed by up to 40,000 hamas fighters. During the fighting , more than 2,000 people were killed on the palestinian side, including more than 500 children. About 18,000 houses were destroyed in the gas, and economic losses in the sector were estimated at 6 billion. On the israeli side, 67 soldiers were killed, these were the Largest Military losses since the second lebanon war in 2006. During the military operation, the radicals fired more than 4,500 rockets at israel, but most of them they fell in an uninhabited area. However, so far observers in the region see no signs of an impending interstate clash. The mood in iran is not in favor of direct conflict; i dont think there are such prospects, because the parties believe that they can achieve goals without direct involvement. Iran is not in an offensive position; on the contrary, it is trying to stop the war, because there is a risk of uncontrollable developments for everyone. Any war. In the region it is multilayered, everything is intertwined. Tehran received signals from the americans that they hope to help contain regional conflict. They understand that they will not win a war with iran and do not strive for such a scenario. The likelihood of iran entering the war is as minimal as it can be. The us and european support for israel sends a clear message to iran. The war will not be with israel, but with us. Containment works. American presence. The main obstacle for tehran, as for Groups Associated with iran, incidents with their participation are possible, but hezbollah, for example, is the largest player this type behaves with restraint, they respect the informally agreed upon framework , respond proportionately, tit for tat, but nothing more , not overlapping, both sides perceive signals, and this is an example of clearly calculated actions and reactions. In 2013, bala intervened in syrian events and selfpreservation because there was a threat to supply lines within the resistance axis. Hezbollah, syria, iran. The fall of the assad regime would mean a major blow to hezbollah. Now the destruction of hamas and the complete blockade of gas will become something of a laboratory for israel. If the experiment is successful, it will be reproduced by the nahisbolah. Such a risk may force one to take preventive steps. Maybe. Not a largescale escalation, but an intensification of hostilities. Despite the almost twentyyear blockade , weapons regularly enter the gas sector through tunnels. The city of rafah is located on the border with egypt. In fact, it is divided into two parts palestinian and egyptian. The entrance to the dungeon is not visible. It is dug right in a residential building, and then a tunnel is made that connects the two houses. For smugglers. This is big business. These underground arteries supply not only weapons, but also consumer goods. Sometimes the tunnels are so large that stolen cars are transported through them. In 2014, the Egyptian Government demolished the egyptian part of the city of rafah, but this did not help. Smugglers began to extend their tunnels, sometimes by several kilometers. In addition to underground construction , a Rocket Program was actively developing in gas. Hamas has few opportunities to successfully fight the israeli army. The most effective way turned out to be makeshift installations for launching multiple launch rocket systems. At first these were chinese and soviet charges obtained in different ways. But it quickly became clear that it was more convenient to produce them locally. This is how kasam missiles appeared. They were named after the islamic cleric from iddin alqassam, who fought against the british. And was killed during the raid, and his name became a symbol of selfsacrifice for the participants in the intifada. As the range of supplies increased, the effectiveness and accuracy of projectiles began to increase, and most importantly, the firing range increased, even in at the beginning of 2000, they reached a maximum of the nearest city of sderot, 3 km from the wall, but now the alkuts brigade, the military wing of hamas, is even shelling tel aviv and jerusalem. More importantly, the number of launches has increased. At first there were dozens of missiles, then hundreds, and now the count is in the thousands. The Israeli Air Defense system the iron dome turns out to be too much. And does not have time to shoot down all these shells, the cost of such protection turns out to be incommensurable each launch of an iron dome costs 30400 dollars, one hail a maximum of 1500 dollars, and kassam and even less. Recently , missile launches have been supplemented by strikes from zuaari loitering munitions and kamikaze sayyad drones. The first is named after the tunisian designer of hamas, which was eliminated by an air strike, the second, probably iranian made, are more difficult targets to intercept. There is also a badr3 missile. According to some sources, it is made in iran, according to others , it is made directly in gas. But another thing is important, it can deliver up to 350 kg of explosives at a distance of 160 km and explode in the air, judging by the footage distributed by hamas, they have its own air defense appeared, this is iranian. Remote application. How effective it is is still unclear, but it is obvious that the new tactics of hamas fighters work great in combination with surprise. Small groups of militants operated on israeli territory, using paragliders, motorcycles and any available captured transport, striking and retreating. It is worth noting the large number of such groups and the coherence of their actions. Be that as it may, the spread of fullfledged military operations does not yet look like the number one threat, but the political processes are in ruins , what will remain of them is generally unclear, for jordan and egypt, everything that is happening poses an existential threat, and the reason for this is israel and its actions during this war, and the big question is how relations with it can be restored in the first place further . When we established relations with israel, there were great hopes for cooperation in the energy sector, related projects that would be in the interests of israel, jordan and the palestinians, but political, strategic relations are beyond outside of individual specific security issues, were in their infancy. From the point of view of the jordanian government, the israeli authorities have been engaged in one thing in recent years, destroying opportunities for resolving the palestinian issue. In the arab world, the conflict of 7 years is called the october war. In israel and in western historiography, it is even more often called the yom kippur war, because egypt and syria attacked israel on october 6 on the holy jewish holiday of yom kippur. Day of fasting of repentance, it differs in that everything is closed and literally nothing works shops, institutions, public transport does not operate and planes do not even fly, the airspace is completely blocked. In the seventythird year, when israel froze, the Egyptian Army successfully crossed the vanity canal , captured two bridgeheads on the eastern bank, up to 15 km deep, on the syrian front , arab troops advanced. 15 km deep into the dutch heights. It is now known that the israeli authorities knew about the attack. It is believed that in the previous sixday war, israel preventively reacted to the threat, but the egyptians and syrians did not even think of attacking; mobilization in the area of the soet canal only created the appearance of a threat, and the United States knew about it. Israel decided to attack first anyway and did not even warn washington about it. In a matter of days, the sinai peninsula, the gaza strip, the west bank of the jordan river, East Jerusalem and the syriandutch heights were captured. The United States silently supported israel, but set conditions if it came out first again, washington would refuse support. As a result, in the seventythird year, even guessing about the attack, the israelis could not do anything, although the arabs expectation of attacking on a religious holiday did not come true. On the contrary, thanks to the empty roads, the reservists quickly found themselves in the troops, and the first strike of the egyptians was successful. During the counterattack on the bridgehead, the israelis suffered heavy losses, more than 200 tanks. The egyptians were the first to use soviet malyutka antitank missiles for this purpose. But the promise was fulfilled and washington came to the rescue. During the month of operation nickelgrass on the air bridge, which was organized by then ultramodern s. Five galaxy planes transported 25,000 tons of military cargo. The first plane brought 155 mm artillery shells, which the israelis had just run out of. Although the american lending was not at all the key condition for victory. If you believe american research, the balance of forces in the arabisraeli conflicts barely reached a ratio of 1 2, that is, against one israeli, the arabs could not field even two soldiers. The population of arab countries was larger, but they could not afford a Significant Army due to poverty. However however, the conflict of 7 years showed that the arabs were close to victory, and if they set a goal, they can achieve results, especially if israel does not start first. That is why the yom kippur war ended with the resignation of defense minister moshe dayan and the end of the career of Prime Minister of goldei meir. It lasted only 18 days, but was accompanied by unprecedented military and political activity. The chairman of the council of ministers of the ussr, alexey kosygin, and the secretary of state secretly visited cairo. Usa, henry kissinger. It was probably then that the text was agreed upon un council resolution, which demanded an end to the war. For their part, arab countries imposed an embargo on oil supplies to those states that supported israel. Ultimately, this led to the largest oil crisis of 1973 and caused a long recession in the world economy. And 6 years later, israel signed a Peace Agreement with egypt. The middle east, created in the 20th century by external powers, under the influence of the collapse of empires, the holocaust, decolonization and the cold war , is becoming a thing of the past while all ponertians live with the old diagrams, but only because no one can imagine anything else, but they will have to. The conflict in palestine has been sparking w