Interview with Karim Taleb Part I of II:
A lot has been said and written about the impact of the Covid crisis on the global economy and on the prospects of a strong recovery in 2021. Especially since the start of the year, there seems to be a consensus among government officials, institutional leaders and mainstream market analysts and pundits, pointing to an extremely positive outlook.
And yet, many investors and market observers who understand monetary history, who have studied past crises and recessions, or simply have even a vague recollection of the basic rules of economics taught in high school, find it hard to embrace that view. The scale of the damage that was done by all the lockdowns and the shutdowns and the unprecedented wave of stimulus packages and monetary manipulations paint a very different picture of the future. This kind of disruption and destruction, on a global level, can hardly be undone within a few months, especially since there is no reason to believe that governments or central banks will reverse any of their toxic policies that continue to exacerbate the problems.