Transcripts For ALJAZ Counting The Cost 20221031 : vimarsana

ALJAZ Counting The Cost October 31, 2022

This is out there. It is, your top stories. Russia is again launched. Missiles strikes against the ukrainian capital. Several explosions have been reported in keith, moscows accusing ukraines government of attacking its black c fleet. The un humanitarian chiefs as the deal that allowed the export of ukrainian grain remains in force despite russias announcement that it was pulling out 12 vessels, carrying grain left ukrainian ports. On monday, the turkish president says, his government is determined to keep the ukraine greendale in place. Where civil side has mo, from his stumble, the United Nations and the turkish delegations. They have agreed that they are going to add to in general, to inspect around 40 westhills and the ukranian delegation have accepted that and joint coordination centered say that Russia Federation also have been informed. But did the ships that are wave him in the stumble, there are not just those who you that you see behind me. There are 97. 00 west souls around the stumble that are still wave him to be inspected. Louis the necessarily la dsilva is one present president ial run off election making a historic political come back a left wing form. The president defeated outgoing j a bull snar i less than 2 percent margin. Yes, t, the most essential task is to ensure that every child, every woman, every man can have breakfast, lunch, and dinner every day. Were going to bring back the ministry of culture. Were going to create a public commission. So that culture can become something that everyone has access to. So that culture can become an industry that produces jobs. Those who are afraid of culture, of those who dont like the people and who dont like freedom at herself from a badge collapsed and india has risen to at least a 141. Hundreds of people fell into the river when cable supporting the pedestrian bridge snapped south. Chorus president has joined mona at a shrine to the victims of a crush in soles. Its a warm district of an 150 people were killed in the crown, such on saturday. As your headlines coming up next is counting the coast. Ah ah, i. Hello, melinda. This is counting the cost on al jazeera. This week president gigi pings grip on china is tighter than ever before. And hes pledged to cement his countrys power and influence in the world, but the economy is weakening, honey fix it. Also this way, chinas leader wants to place his country as a leader in technology bought in his choking off its access to advanced semiconductors class. Chinas electric Vehicle Market is booming to why is beijing so far ahead of the u. S. And europe and adopting the technology. Ah, when jean ping assumed power in 2012, chinas economy walls booming a decade later that growth is being dragged down by strict cove at 19 cubs on a deepening property crisis. Now, critics, if the chinese leader mainly blame the weakening economy on his policies. Yes, using paying has given few signs of changing his approach often consolidating his hold on power. G insists the economy is resilient and has promised to deepen economic ties with all the countries as he begins an unprecedented fed term as leader of the communist party shoes. You find that . Yes, she actually justice, china cant develop in isolation from the world. It need one china for its development through over 40 years of friendly letter form and opening up, right. We have created the twin miracles of foss, Economic Growth, and social stability. China will open its stores if wider, we will be steadfast and deepening reform and opening up across the board. A prosperous, china will create many more opportunities for the world. We now have one veiled, a new Leadership Team of loyalists. Among them is leach young. On track to become the premier tough with managing the worlds 2nd largest economy and stocks in hong kong slumped and the u on weekend against the us dollar after beijing presented its new policy leadership. Investors were also, im nerved by Economic Data showing a mixed recovery in 3rd quarter, with unemployment rising and retail sales weakening. Now the economy has rebounded at a faster than expected pace during that period expanding by 3. 9 percent. But its still way below the 5. 5 percent target for this year. Now lets have a look at some machine pings controversial policies to decades of market oriented reforms initiated by his predecessors. The president has been criticized for bringing the economy on the tight state control and say he has prioritized political control and National Security above Economic Growth. He has long sweeping crackdowns to rain and industries, including tech giants, gaming and private tutoring. As part of his efforts to tackle rising inequality, the measure is estimated to have wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value for many of chinese companies. Honest imposed boring limits on the property sector, which has led to cash crunches and defaults for many developers. Z has also double down and 0 cove had locked downs must testing and border controls which continued to cripple economic activity. Joining me now as sally, you senior practitioner fellow with the ash center, khalid Kennedy School and a visiting senior fellow at the London School of economics. She enjoys me now from washington d. C. Thank you for your time sadie. Whats the recent Economic Data . Tell us about how the chinese economy is doing. Hi, good morning, melinda. First say it would be nearly impossible now for china to hit the full year 5 and a half percent a g d p growth target. Chinese economy has achieved out 3 percent growth in the 1st 3 quarters of the year. And so china would need to grow over 10 percent. You order to hit the for your target. And so thats becoming increasingly unlikely. Some statistics within the q 3 data is really interesting. One world income grew faster than urban income by nearly 2 percent. So the lifting of income is a manifestation off. Shes determination to reduce income inequality you order to achieve common prosperity in the 2nd statistics. Private Sector Investments grew 2 percent into 3, but they Sector Investment grew over 10 percent in the same quarter. So the say sector is a bad thing relative to the private sector. In this, a gun validates the seas plan to make the state sector bigger, better, stronger, and hes gonna killer off the chinese Economic Growth in 3 take high take manufacturing bi, added to the fastest, across all the industrial sectors into 3. And so there is a whole of government approach in pushing the growth off. China saw High Tech Industries and the number 4 really interestingly, i say means the car to saw a sharp rise in 2021. Chinese save the despite co bit over 2 june 20 truly in r and bay, almost a 2. 00 times the size of chinas g, d p. And on average over 10. 00 a us dollars per chinese citizens. Any comic i sort of g. So tiny citizens are really making choices on the future of, you know, what they see as the future of the chinese economy. They arent spending, they already invested, they are really saving. And last me, if i may say of the 3 horses of their chinese economy, trade investment and consumption. Obviously, china can always fall back to infrastructure stimulus in order to see some short term Economic Growth. But we havent seen consumption picked up literally since cold bid. And so a less we see a very strong consumption recovery. There is no sustainable economic recovery in china. Right . Ok. So thats why i just want to be clear, surely because a lot of what you described is positive news. And yet when you see how the markets of react and the you on depreciation, you wonder how its being interpreted . Is the chinese economy doing ok or not . Oh, you may say that it is a you looking at had that the condition that, that the chinese economy has been weathering in the 3rd quarter with persistent id 0 cobit policy. And the enormous a Political Uncertainty which is now cleared. A chinese economy has been rather resilient. If we were to look at a 3. 9 percent, the g d p growth in the 3rd quarter, but by all means it is so slow down significantly. And i think god, you know, to, for china not to hit a project to their g d p growth target for the full year. This is perhaps the most though shocking anomaly that ive seen you my professional life time. But we should say that in the 20th party congress, Economic Security has become a bigger priority over Economic Growth. And so Going Forwards, mistress, she did talk about that by 2049. He wants to china to become the leader in terms ofa comprehensive National Strengths in the world. And so that entails rather a lot of things beyond simply g d p growth target. Yes indeed sir. Lets expand on that because when you take a closer look at some of the people in his new Leadership Team, it does appear clear that he has chosen loyalty over the experience of some of these people. So is Economic Growth no longer a priority for shipping. Molina, Economic Growth will always be essential in china as just have. But mentioned earlier, Economic Security now has become a more acute National Priority for the Current Administration over g d p growth. But thats not to say that Economic Growth is not essential, as mentioned the mr. Sci fi mission, a long term target by the mid part of the century. He wants china to lead the world. Essentially, every level of strength that entail is a military military modernization requires Economic Growth. Infrastructure building requires growth about road initiative. This is mr. She campaign, signatories Foreign Policy that requires Economic Growth roof itself. Its already a part of the chinas economy security. One of the challenges and you touched on it is the downturn in the Property Market in china . What are your predictions for the market is a recovery in the sector expected. A, chinas Residential Real Estate market has slid a 13 month in a row. And when they 1st started a, they started as a supply side issue, primarily risk in the suppliers, the 2 ball per side. But now its increasingly become a demand side issue. As we have just mentioned that you, investors are the regular savers in china, are choosing to put money in the bank rather than borrowing on mortgages and the buying more real estate. The market is not going to recover. And the real estate sector, its roughly about 20 to 25 percent of china is the g d p. It is the crucial sector in the chinese economy. And so it has a stove, some of its risks over to the banking sector. And so now its becoming more of a systemic issue that involves a lot of moving parts. Thank simply a, just the, you know, to revitalize the Real Estate Market itself. Clearly youve studied china very closely. It is something you focus on. Where do you see the chinese economy Going Forward . Can overtake the u. S. At some point. I think the chinese economy will face a lot of hurdles the head, but the economy that they can on motto itself is transitioning. We have heard in districts, fish recently that the chinese economy is comprehensively a, moving into a different path off development to the past of for decades. And as far as how that economic model is going to work out, that really its a big test at the world is bearing witness to. So we are looking at the state sector becoming more dominant and the, permeating through every sector off the chinese economy. And we are looking into the future that china is going to focus on a lot of Self Reliance and including not only supply chain technology, but also chinas major push should become a Global Leader in exporting technology to the developing world. And so were looking at the various moving parts, but the fundamentally were looking at the sub you cannot make philosophy that is embraced on by the car, into chinese leader. If it is going to take china to where he wishes china to bay by the mid part of the century, that is to lead the world in comprehensive National Strength and to offer the world alternative model to modernization. We dont really understand fully at this point. What this chinese style modernization is categorically different from modernization in a universal sense. And so there are a lot of things that we know that from a liberal Economic Perspective perhaps, or is a lot of data pads where the chinese economy is going to go. But we know for sure that the past is going to become more state centric and its going to perhaps further departure from the liberal economic i ideal the west of cherish really interesting to talk to you shortly. You senior practitioner, a fellow at the ash center, poverty Kennedy School, and visiting senior fellow at the London School of economics. Thank you. Thank you. The president gigi paying one china to become a state lead and self sufficient technology superpower, but doesnt rely on the west. Bought it, lags behind taiwan, south korea. Im the United States in manufacturing, advance semiconductors use and everything from mobile phones to weapons of the us is making it harder for beijing to acquire and produce them. Washington has imposed sweeping new cubs against the chinese chip industry. They are tougher than any Previous Action Taken by the u. S. In decades. And the aim to slow beijing ministry power. American companies would not require licenses to export High Performance chips, the china, as well as equipment use in advance semiconductor manufacturing. Their restrictions also target sales from foreign firms that use american equipment. The measures come as the us post billions of dollars into its domestic chip industry in an attempt to boost american competitiveness. China has criticized washingtons expanded restrictions, saying they will hom supply chains and the world economy. Many american firms that produce chips list china as the biggest Single Market and could face major losses in revenues to discuss all of this on joy. Now bye Alicia Garcia had at or from hong kong. Alicia is the chief economist for the asia pacific at not texas bank and an adjunct professor, Hong Kong University of science and technology. Thanks for joining the program. What is the thinking behind the decision that the us have made to place the sweeping controls on sale the semiconductors on basing . I think the main concern from the us side is actually technology and containing china and its upgrading of the major industry us me, thats the key. Of course, theres not, thats the, in the military industry only and, and need to technology will be hit, which also means that china will have a hard time in moving up the lather, whether its artificial intelligence, quantum computing. So basically in the deep tech will be severely affected, this technological decoupling between the us and china, its been going on for some time now. Has it it, i mean, because of that, we know that the Chinese Government has invested heavily in its own chip industry in life if that how much are these controlled actually a blow on china so far, right before this and new ban on, on, on semiconductors. I would say that the impact has been limited. We have seen some impact ways. A very good example is basically didnt manage to develop it, sign the sign of semi come back to the subsidy. Weve had a choir to do so. But, but yeah, i mean, this time around, this is really up to not me. This is a totally different ball game. It is going to be much more painful for china than any other measure which is so far. So this policy of the us to work though it needs its allies, doesnt it to comply with the same controls. I mean, take taiwan for example, which is pivotal to the Semi Conductor industry. What is taiwanda ro here . Its close and its relationship to the u. S. But its also very much dependent on china in terms of its biggest markets. So how do they play this . They cant play, thats the difference in premium sumption. Export controls, entity list, you know, everything weve seen so far. They had a choice and they could basically, you know, play around with whom they were sell in, or they were not selling this time around. If the c or a s m l in you that, that or, or some so not anybody decides not to play around and it is not defy the end user in a way they are going to be subject to the same export controls because it will not received the signed for their own production. This is what i mean. So that way, i think its not choice. 2 factors. First i practicing is going to be hard to deviate. I mean, impossible because youre going to be targeted. Targeted 2nd by now and this has changed since ukraine, you halfhearted coordinated expert ban on semiconductors to, to russia, which is basically now let me know chinese semiconductors. So i guess you can, has shown that it can be done. So what does this leave china . What, what a, china is options. China has options. I would say i wouldnt say that they are necessarily very effective. So let me start by very simple. They can ban apple or microsoft or, you know, like be harm to the Tech Industry as users the other than they can do is to play with critical components to, to supply chain, whe

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