A package for you crime, a key for the rooms. The faith loomed of us politicians filed to agree on more money or under attack from the laws are better equipped to Russian Forces. Ukrainian troops are entirely reliance on foreign assistance of the spot receiving major aid and military packages to died. Some believe the boy is that a style might support as of the assistance is it will bring you crying closer to victory. The kremlin, along with some of the independent observers says it will simply prolong the will, meaning more people will die. That will be assessing without pen lift. Guess what . This a package might mean for you kind of russian and what a long google could mean for both countries along with europe and the United States and how a path to pace might be found. This is this report from imaging camp another 61000000000. 00 b crane, and its war against russia. The latest us a package is pushed by the republican high speaker with logic, democratic support. Its a, its a dangerous type. 3 of our primary adversaries, russia and iran in china, are working together and theyre being aggressors around the globe and their global threat to our prosperity and our security. Their advance threatens their free world and it demands american leadership. We turn our backs right now, the consequences to be devastating. The legislation still needs approval from the senate, which is expected to get before being signed off by president j. Pardon president loved him. Is it lensky . Its been cooling for more aide for months, saying its critical for ukraine survival. Yeah, of course. Of course. I think everyone who supported a package, this is a live saving decision. We will certainly use american support to strengthen both nations and bring a just into this will close to a girl thats guten must lose the 2 minute tree and civilian death toll since rushes invasion in february 2022 is on 9. On the 2nd, none of us you have to hold. The Un Human Rights Monitoring Mission estimated more than 10 sizes and ukrainian civilians had been killed and always 20000 injured. While the Ministry Said 31 size and personnel had been killed. An investigation by the bbc and then jose estimates 50000 Russian Troops have been killed. The criminal says only the Defense Ministry can provide such statistics and hasnt done so due to official secrets. Those ukraine has made little progress, breaking through bushes frontline or its grip on parts of eastern and southern ukraine. Well, Russian Forces continue to carry out attacks across the country. Ukraine has also been launching drones interruption. Territory in the kremlin says, the approval of security aid to ukraine would lead to more damage and death in the conflict. It accuses the us fighting. A proxy will against russia, through its Ministry Support with ukraine supplying demand power, the us and they to say there are no plans to send troops to increase. The russia says, British Military personnel already the with no, i just saw a bucking dying or gaining significant grind. No negotiations on the table. The will seem set to drag own image in cuba, which is 0. The inside story where ukraine has become the biggest recipient of us for an age, the 1st time for a European Countries since the 2nd world war. According to the council of foreign relations, even before subsidized by the us, had approved more than 74000000000. 00. And assistance you try and during the war that includes humanitarian, financial and military support of the e. U has provided more than 106000000000. 00 and financial military humanitarian and refugee assistance since the war began. The cadets bring in now panel now in new york. Chris age is a full, the middle east bureau chief of the new times independents a prize winning journalist in washington dc. And the total leaving is the director of the razor program at the Quincy Institute for responsible state cross us thing tank. And then boss in the u. K. Patrick barry is a defense and security analyst, as well as a former british officer whos also with a long side. Nice. So thank you very much for being with us here on inside story. Patrick, if i can begin with you, and before we get to the long attend implications of this, id package you kind is wasted months and months for this to be signed off. How desperately needed, is it and what impact is it actually going to have on the war . It by tom is critical. I think the, the new music in the space reflect adopted this bill is going to get through because of the nature of the, the threat that you brain is facing. Essentially its quite a defensive, but the way it looks is going to be quite a defensive package. And the, the number one priority at the moment is air defense. A new friend has obviously had some patriot astro systems from the us and you are but it needs more. Uh, it has somewhere in the region of 3. 00 to 5. 00 and as ask for another 7 more. The good news is you can get that quite quickly. Um, id say most of the nations that could provide the systems can moves and fairly quickly the rest of all have stopped piles of certain cases in europe already. And id say not as the number one priority. The 2nd thing that as large kind of our, our category shows, i need them quickly to, might take a little bit longer, and theres numerous different efforts going in europe. Im obviously the us to get those to them. I dont think at the moment that will be quite enough on at least it gets the ball rolling. Chris of the load them is the landscape has said in response to this that you cry and will now have a chance. The victory is 61000000000. 00 enough, died for you, cried to actually finish this war. Or is it simply going to per long this current style might that weve seen of a recent months. You know, it will prolong it. I think since ukraines failed counter offensive in 2023 day by their own admission where they call it active defense. The russians have made territorial gains. But there was always an understanding from the inception of this war that ukraine could not win a war of attrition. Its now. I think the average age of its troops is Something Like 43. I had 7 very spring difficulties recruiting. I think the fear and the reason that this was pushed through is the possibility of ukrainian collapse. But the intent of washington was never to essentially allow the premium forces to defeat the russians. But it was to create a proxy war whereby the Russian Military would be degraded. Vladimir putin would be isolated. Uh, and then the 3rd aspect of that was to degrade and triple the russian economy that did not happen apparently. But thats what proxy wars are about. I covered the pros in northern arac because they never wanted to us number one or the current state. They just wanted to harass iraqi regime. And so they are prolonging the proxy war that will end in negotiations. Oh, sadly, negotiations that have been done before this war began, you will get on to the negotiations and when they may begin and how they would play out in just a moment. But the anatole, we also heard from a zalinski saying that this us, i package seems a strong signal that you kind will not be a secondary dentist on. The united sites will stay with you crying. And then it also sends a powerful message to person in the kremlin. Do you agree with those statements in . Do you agree with chris as well . But this package is just going to prolong this proxy world of the us as fighting with russia. It was this package will help ukraine to stand on the defensive. Theres no question of that. Im just mister beer has said this is basically a defensive package of boxes. It will not help to crate and it will help. But when insured is that ukraine can break through the russian lines and within its ton, which of course it failed completely to do last year. And those lines are being strengthened all the time. Now, is, the lensky has continues to define peaks in terms of total ukrainian victory. The ukraine in east package says the russian must withdrawal from all the tire traits occupied, including crimea, and ball trans trials and reparations. That requires complete ukrainian victory, which were not going to get um the 2nd layer of goals of us support for you. Credit is not insured by this package for this year. But we have elections in there in november. Im just goes um its trump is elected. What happens next year is completely, im sure. So in the longer term, a different, the huge imbalance of population of resources between russia and ukraine. Um yes, i mean in, in the it will be a war of attrition in the old system on russia side. Patrick, just picking up from that point and, and what you said earlier about this being a defensive package, i mean button has more numerous times that without mess of u. S. Military, i didnt support the, the Ukrainian Resistance would pretty much completely collapse. What happens if the money doesnt keep flowing, especially after the election . The us selection at the end of this year . Well essentially tom uh, the, the, when the new grand sales would slowly die. Um then uh it would eventually be come under such a pressure from the russians that they would have to star conceding territory. But then it would be done to the manner of which task and how much the russians talk. And also whether the finance have to switch to some sort of insurgency, to go back to charles point, you know, what, i dont think the west i actually had a plan for this being a proxy war. I think if you look at the nature of the way that the ukrainians defended at the start of the war, they exceeded expectations much higher than most people thought. And originally, all of them, the weapon systems that went into suggested they were going to be the west. Were going to be funding an insurgency, especially in the west of the country, rather than a full this to go scale to, to tote, to conventional flight, which it turns into. So you brain exceeded expectations and the policy decisions have to, of all, with that we are aware we are and i dont think the writings would have also accepted or not. And it goes straight. Is that on the before the affordable or the some obviously major differences are by whether internally, whether they want to accept anything that is. So um, but we are where we are. I think the point is, uh, you know, even just the defense of formal war version, the ascendancy, its even hard for the russians, even though theyre getting into the room and making some advances. Its harder for them to mouse in secret and then break through. Like weve seen that and, and, and previous flores. Im because of the advantages with ukraine, generally, as long as i can keep the sensors, unintelligence picture going them. Their big question is, do we take a year and go on the defensive and then with something a mazda of a mans, of us and western support train. You know, if i knew a big or offensive in 2024, i actually think thats probably becoming the less likely that as time passes in result and one in part as a result of this delay to the package. If it had to come back in october, when it was needed, then you would have been into a phase and in spring of planning and prepping for the holding off the russians for a year and going again for an operational victory, strategic they give another try another operational victory next summer. I dont, i think weve lost so much time now. Im not sure thats going to happen. Chris, it seems like were already talking about nick some a little on in the one in the coming months. What do you make of, of we have this is, is going to go, do you think is, is just going to continue, i guess, rolling along, month after month with very little movements in terms of territory, guidance or losses on either side as well. I just wanna address the issue of momentum because that is true, that the inception of the conflict and this was a lot of this was due to failure within the Russian Military and their intelligence, their tactics. They didnt have the logistics, they didnt have the true numbers. And the trainings, especially in that initial rush driven susie, as im in the flight of western weapons, were able to make military gains. But all of that has been neutralized the tactics, especially the strong defensive tactics have changed the Russian Forces of more than double in size. And then of course the ukrainians, as i mentioned before, are having great difficulty mobilizing the in the, in increasingly older troops that are not particularly well trained or motivated. The russians have got more effective tactics in terms of defending attacks. Uh and uh, and theyve increased their capacity to jam the electronic systems, which these natal weapons use. So the war is changed dramatically from that initial inception. Id sure i would use the word still me because it is a war of attrition. Stalemate is essentially something that doesnt change a war of attrition on the ground. It may not change in terms of the actual territorial occupation, but that steady attrition on the ukraine just cant afford it. And at that point, at a certain point, as you know, you go back to world war one or something. You see those forces that are being shipped away, essentially collapse. And i think thats a real possibility and ukraine eventually. And its all i can see, you know, doing a long there. What do you make of that is, i guess thats how you see it to yes, i think chris is exactly right. And it goes absolutely critical. Here is, is the issue of, of troops of numbers of troops. Because even if we go on giving you kind, massive amounts of weapons, we kind of generate the troops to use those weapons. And ukraine is more and more numbers and its troops on the ground are exhausted. So yes, i mean, the longer the war goes off, the greater the risk that, as chris said, as an in the 1st will, you have a war of attrition but which eventually does end with the collapse of, of one side. And that side, i think we must assume would be ukraine, not fresh. I believe it roughly 50000 ukranian soldiers had been killed. So fire and 2 years of war. And its all i know that you have been to your crime since the will begin. Can you just give us a little bit of a view of what the people of the, the population make if this more of attrition is were calling it here today. I mean, we often hear from the governments point of view, obviously, but we really, very, really here from the people inside you crying as i at the turning point a with i want to see eddings to the war at this point. Well, i mean, as one would expect, 7, the great divisions of opinion onto the surface in, in the ukrainian population. By the way, i mean the estimates of the, the statement by then scale of 31 size and you pregnant that is taken by nice military experts to be a huge. Im just a probably the 50000, bbc think its russian. That is also a great on the, on the state of bobs one of the seen of the whole, reggie when i was there last year and everybody, everybody i talked to one to the pregnant defensive to succeed, bought a large minority said that if it did, and then rather than even a fighting on and on and losing more and more dead with no realistic type of victory that you train would have to negotiate and concede for at least a considerable amount of the tire trade, which it has already lost. Now, majorities and said, no, you pain must, must Never Surrender territory. But it was also striking, but the, the people who said, but in the end we will have to compromise was the last minority as i say, but not one of them is willing to say on the record of it the. So one has to be wary of including of opinion pose which say that you know, you be brand new people are united in opposing any kind of compromise piece. And a bit more recent opinion, oppose have suggested that that has been a strong shift towards belief that that that must be a, a compromise piece. Not yet so majority, but even larger minority. Now, of course, one must say that that does not mean that these people support ukraine, simply so rendering to russia and ukraine becoming, you know, of course, session clients state. There was overwhelming opposition to that. The question is basic, the weather you that goes the age of peace, which involves Russia Holding what is it now has and which also of course, involves ukrainian treaty of neutrality was also being that it just goes by many ukrainians. Is the fact that, while the west has given massive aid to ukraine, of course, the west has not gone to war, to defend ukraine, which, as the lensky himself said, in the 1st month who does raise the question of what nature membership is for, or whether in fact nature, ukraine will be a member of nature and that full why in fact ukraine should not sign a treaty of neutrality, if accompanied by you some forms of guarantee for its future security. But before we move on to potential negotiations and all of this picture, when it comes to you just in regards to the ukrainian soldiers, obviously as we had a minimum 30000. 00 to have died already up to potentially 50000. The longer that this goes on is this, the greatest risk to you, cried that the, the, the lack of troops that they have coming in behind those on the front line that continue to be killed. But depends, doesnt that, you know, depends on the rate of loss relative to the russians in their ability to refresh it. But look at scott like youre talking long term in the way the germany was eventually strong goals in, in the 1st for a walrus christmas. All kind of a, there is some, some chosen about analogy, a smaller nation with a smaller population and economy can go against, you know, a former global superpower with, you know, 200000000 people. And it just doesnt happen. A lot of people have less do branding to, so thats a longer term picture and i agree, but, but you know, and theres worrying indicators, you know, rushes out in your bait or release, replacing out of goods forces. 30000 people amongst ukraine installed over there, mobilization um, over the winter basically, you know, and hes just getting ran through and thought should have happened much faster. You know, uh, but i do think that the, you know, were gonna talk about negotiations. Thats ultimately i think its all this ultimate that has been to the branding is to decide when enough is enough is enough, is enough enough for them to the side. And all weve done really is giving them the stuff. And some of its too late to, to, to keep fighting. So, i mean, weve also gone out and see and its all you know, statements that weve done over and told them to keep fighting a time to give them support and which stand by stand by them. And i suppose the some of the ukrainians are coming out and theyre saying, well, we thought there be more, but on the data point, you know, you probably didnt, didnt data and wasnt able to core. I like is right. And i and you k