Transcripts For ALJAZAM Consider This 20140225 : vimarsana.c

ALJAZAM Consider This February 25, 2014

The long reign of the most powerful drug trafficker in the world. In ukraine the president has been impeached. Interm government has issued an arrest warrant. Francis is the first pope not to ever have studied in rome, worked in rome, or spent significant time in rome. He intended to lead a very different church. We gin with the arrest of possibly the most Notorious Mexican Drug Cartel leader, who shocked us since his escape in 2001. But what does his arrest really mean for the drug war and the flow of drugs into the u. S. His arrest comes just as the mexican president was featured on the cover of Time Magazine with the headline saving mexico, but is this really mexicos Osama Bin Laden moment . For more were joined by a reporter from tlos angeles time. Sam good to have you back on the show. You wrote you dont believe to coincidences when it comes to mexican politics. As we just said the mexican president is on the cover of Time Magazine and el chopo is arrested. Coincidence. I think when you cover mexican politics you dont ever believe in coincidence. But this is an historic moment in mexico, there is no doubt about that. This guy is huge he has a huge organization. He is also the poster child for mexican impunity. The fact that he could flaunt this for 13 years. Sneak out of a prison in a Laundry Basket and then be on the run for 13 years, during which time he got married very publicly his wife came to los angeles to have twins. Theres the feeling that this guy the end of el chopo which were now seeing is kind of like the end of an era. The end of these grand leader with his capture i think perhaps we may be seeing an end to that. The mexican president has been criticized for his handling of the drug war. And it seems that every mexican president ends up taking at least one kingpin down. Do you this there will be more aggressive policing in mexico, which has seen as so corrupt out there where the drug cartels operate. For 70 years, the party that ran the country had these very strict rules. They were unwritten rules, but one was each president gets to topple some important powerful figure. Sometimes it was a union leader, but it was not a a Real Campaign to rid the country of these folks. It was more like a i always thought took as it kind of a symbolic thing more than anything else. That began to change once the preloss power was elected, and you began to see unwritten rules of the mexican state being thrown out, and you began to see other people being arrested. Vacinte fox arrested the leader of the gulf cartel, and then calderon has a real long string of folks that he either had killed or imprisoned, so i suspect this is going to be begin to rewrite the rules of mexican politics in administrations which is only a good thing. I would also say that this is showing now what were beginning to see, i think is a real change in capacity, ability by the mexican state to be able to go after these guys. When this war started, what it showed was the complete inability of the mexican state to do anything about rogue actors, running around their country beheading people, massive gun fights in the street, and the mexican state seemed incompetent and incapable, and now were seeing little by little a kind of a Capacity Building thing, an infrastructure building the morale boost of getting some of these really big guys, particularly of course chopo now, this is a really important step in this maturation of the mexican state. And you say the brutality has been absolutely horrific. And you actually seem to think that this might not embolden the other cartels oh, no, i think that very well may happen. This war kicked off in 2003, chopo had just been out of prison for two years by that point. He decides, hey, im going to take on his territory, he goes after that area, thinking it is vulnerable. Incorrectly it turns out. The gulf cartel repels the attack and ever since then we have the war that kicked off so do you think the war will just get worse . Im not sure if it will get worse, but certain areas that were settled issues if you would like may now be in play again. And will his departure actually hurt the cartel, or will people just take over his role . , you know, people will take over his role. But, look, i really think that kingpins are kingpins for a reason. I think these drug organizations are kind of meritocracies, because they are very good at their jobs. They have a ruthlessness, but they are great at logistics and organizational capacity. Think of what he achieved. Its a remarkable achievement sending tons of drugs across a very heavily gourded border using criminals and drug addicts and other unreliable actors, and he was able to do it for years and years. I think a lot of times these people are not as easily replaced and people think. Everybody can kill ruthlessly. Thats not a difficult quality to find in a drug cartel, but the logistics and organizational capacity is not so easy to find. And one case in point is the tijuana cartel. They were absolutely blood thirsty throughout the 80s, and the two leaders were arrested, and once those guys were gone, their ability the organizational ability and logistical ability were not so easily replaced. And that cartel, the king of all cartels for many years eventually disintegrated and its a shadow of its former self. Lets hope that is the case here. Thank you. Thank you. Chuck hagel is recommending some very steep budget cuts for the military including shrinking the number of active level troops to numbers not seen since world war ii. He say its for a build of technology build up and special operations security. The assumption that is being made in the pentagon, and it is almost laughable if it wasnt so serious, is they dont believe the United States will involvement its a in a ground war of any consequence again. Those assumptions have been made after world war ii, korea, vietnam, and the cold war, and every single time they have been proven wrong. And here we are making that sames a search shun. Joining us now is a man who hooz covered the military, pentagon, congress, and politics, kevin good to have you back on the show. Secretary hangel insists the plan will not jeopardize americas security, but not everyone is buying that. What do you think is the bottom line . Are they making a choice of going for a more Technological Force rather than personnel . Yes, more technological, i dont think rather than personnel, i think this is the cost of doing business today. The generals comments, there is a lot of history there. This fray that the pentagon is no longer going to involve itself in a land war goes back two defense secretaries ago, and it was really a comment to to project the future coming out of afghanistan and iraq. Of course its possible that the United States is going to be involved in a land war eventually, and of course history has shown that every decade or two decades away, but i think what a lot of people have learned in the last decade is if thats the big worry that this pentagon and the army knows how to plus up to do Something Like that. But reality is the wars are over. This is the first postwar budget request really, and thats what you see. Its not just a question of replacing personnel costs are technology, its or replacing people with technology, its the cost per person as well. Inside the budget the pentagon for about the third year in a row is begging congress to reduce some of those costs, lower the pay raises for troops, the Health Care Costs for troops, things that congress has just refused to do, so something has to give. Ill get to that in a minute, but as you were staying history shows a substantial conflict every 20 years, smaller ones every five years and some people is saying this will prevent us from being able to deal with two significant wars at the time, and it might prevent us from being as aggressive as me might need to be in certain circumstances. Well, again, the idea of two wars at once, thats the cold war. But or even afghanistan and iraq . Well, we did take care of those two wars at the same time, and it was done with an all volunteer army. The really worry wasnt could we fight two gigantic wars side to side, it was could we continue iraq and move into afghanistan with just the allvolunteer force that we have. This country didnt come anywhere close to a draft. Right. So that kind of fear is such a think tanky strategy room fear. And thats another reality, it has really been the call and call of the pentagon is we have to build a force that can deal with the reality that were most likely to face now, and can be ready to plus up to things in the future. But there are two different questions. Can the United States fight what it needed what we may need to fight . Okay. If its two wars at once . Thats one question. The other question is should we keep a force that is ready to do that at all times, yes. Lets go down through some of the controversial elements. Here is Something Else secretary hagel said on monday. Although these recommendations do not cut anyones pay, i realize they will be controversial. Congress has taken some important steps in recent years to control the growth and compensation spending, but we must do more. How does the military really feel about all of this. You have written about how there is more grumbling in the military, and how mh harder life is, this will make life more expensive for the average member of our military. True. The a10 war hog for example is a beloved plane and it has been talked about for a couple of years that it is going to have to go. What is to replace it, the f35. Another troubled program. So thats going to go on for several years. What happens now, well see. This is the first time the pentagon and congress will face off on that. I think when it comes to the pay raises, that always is trouble. This is congress in a midterm year, they are talking about a 1 raise, not a cut to the raise, and i think the pentagon said, well, well freeze the generals and admirals. They are not cutting into those flag officers more than was projected, which also could have brought savings, for the navy side, you didnt mention the lcs ship, which was supposed to be future of the navy, and the pentagon is asking the navy to basically go back to the drawing board. Thats good news for Ship Builders and planners right, but the bad news is for military bases that might be cut. I have to ask you very quickly, do you think under those circumstances this will make it through congress . I think chunks will, i think chunk wont. I think brak will not. The lcs buy the number of those ships is still to be determined. You have to give credit to the pentagon for putting a lot of items on the table when people thought the big ticket items arent there. They neutralized one item when they said they are not going to cut one of the 11 Aircraft Carrier air strikes this year, but if Congress Tries to push it next year thats what they would go for. The question is how much of this can happen under the radar, and how much can congress stomach, or how much will make it in to the new, when there are a lot of assumptions about congress, versus what anybody in america cares about it does have to do with our security. And obviously they have to deal with new international and budget tear budgetary realities. Coming up ukraines president packs up and flees. So how is he still claiming to hold on to power. And were tracking the top stories on the web. Well test the conventional wisdom on the u. S. Drinking age, and whether it should be lowered. And while you are watching join the conversation. Real reporting that brings you the world. This is a pretty dangerous trip. Security in beirut is tight. More reporters. They dont have the resources to take the fight to al shabaab. More bureaus, more stories. This is where the typhoon came ashore. Giving you a real global perspective like no other can. Al jazeera, nairobi. On the turkeysyria border. Venezuela. Beijing. Kabul. Hong kong. Ukraine. The artic. Real reporting from around the world. This is what we do. Al Jazeera America. Over the course after weekend, the disposed ukrainian over the course of a weekend, deposed ukrainian president went to heard of a nation to a fugitive wanted for mass murder, as the country begins to recover from months of protests that turned violent in the past week, the former president is on the run, and the former government is left to try to recover. Joining us is global posts europe editor, a former npr bureau chief in mow moscow. On friday there was a deal made, then on saturday all of a sudden he is deposed on sunday nobody knows where he is, on on monday he is facing charges, wanted for mass murder. How did this happen so quickly . He lost control of the situation. What happened is whether it was yanukovych who ordered the use of force, the riot police were essentially shooting civilians, some of them armed but most of them unarmed, and this created so much outrage that it essentially was the end of yanukovych. Where do you think he is, and does he have anywhere to run . I think he could go to russia. I suspect that he is in the russianleased port, the home of the black sea fleet. He disappeared in a town on the black sea that is very close. I suspect he has been risked away by Russian Special forces of some kind. Now that the opposition is in charge and elections have been set for may, will they be able to Work Together because with saw that the opposition was pretty divided, in fact some of the Opposition Leaders were booed on friday for agreeing to the deal that lead to him leaving. Thats right. There are a lot of radicalized protesters who have risked their lives and health to essentially protest and counter the riot police and get rid of yanukovych. It is a very tricky situation, nevertheless, i think ukraine has had a very momentous occasion. They got rid of an essentially criminal leader. And the new president has been acting very quickly. Parliament has been acting very quickly to pass laws, tomorrow on tuesday, they are supposed to form an interim government. We will see what happens. But i think the big question was whether the new interim president would be able to exert authority over the state institutions, in particular the police, which is a pretty corrupt force, a lot of the officers loyal to the former president yanukovych. And you see these self f selfdefense forces guarding parliament, conducting traffic at intersections, and you see the Police Coming back and taking up their roles as well, and i think thats a good sign. Protesters ended up walking into yanukovych mansion and what they found points to just incredible corruption. How big of an issue is corruption in ukraine . I think its very big. One of the things that surprises me is we are in this the west are surprised by this. I covered the president ial election when yanukovych was elected, and i remember him giving his victory speech when the exit polls werement coming in. He won by just a hair, but he wanted to establish himself and act very quickly, so he called a news conference, a lot of reporters were there, it was in downtown kiev and you could see his supporters, some of the politicians and businessmen sitting around round tables in this large sort of banquet hall, and they just had a criminal look about them. This was from the very start a criminal group, essentially, i think. And the mansion, the boat, the car collection, the private zoo, all of that now shows essentially to most ukrainians and the world that this was the case. Ula Yulia Tymoshenko was also released, over the weekend. And the division in ukraine has so often been painted as a battle between rush and the west, and internal battle between western side and the eastern side. Do you see this as a win for the west . This it is absolutely a win for the west. Its a conflict that has been going on for a long time on lots of levels. Ukraine is split geographically and in population, essentially 5050. So it definitely is that, but it was more than that, i think the Yanukovych Administration and regime was incredibly corrupt. It cracked down against free speech, oversaw a massive explosion of corruption and jailed yulia Yulia Tymoshenko a quick question for you. Russia has said it will not deal with mutinyeers, what will they do . They will use some armed force to try to influence events. So far thankfully that hasnt been the case, but we often find russians actions mysterious, why would he try to push the country to the verge of civil war . I write in my book that a lot of russian actions that seem confusing to us are based on practical reason according to their own logic. Putin makes decisions that are not in russias interest, but in his interest. He didnt want ukraine to join the west and he was willing to do Everything Possible to prevent that. The Prime Minister has called the new leaders their coming to power, the result of an armed mutiny. They are trying to undermine the new prowestern leaders. I think they will act according to their old play book, but hopefully theres a window for the new authorities to really try to change what has been going on in ukraine. Again, the book is russians the people behind the power, great to have you on the show. Thank you. Thank you. Protests continued in venezuela on monday. Hundreds of thousands of antigovernment protesters filled the streets on saturday in the biggest demonstration so far. Meanwhile Opposition Leader is calling on protesters not to give up. Lopezs family says the government has offered to send him into exile, but that the deal was rejected. So is venezuela a country with the Worlds Largest Petroleum Reserves heading the way of ukraine . Or will the president succeed in riding out the demonstrations . For more im joined by the senior director of policy, and founder and editor in chief of americas quarterly. Good to have you back on the show. Good to be here. We just saw peoples power having incredible effect in ukraine in overthrowing the government. Will that happen in venezuela . Two things are different. In ukraine you had a series of diplomats that tried to put some

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