Transcripts For ALJAZAM Consider This 20140507 : vimarsana.c

ALJAZAM Consider This May 7, 2014

Welcome to consider this. Here is more on whats ahead. Now. The president has directed that we do everything we can to help the Nigerian Government to find and free these girls. A suspected boko haram gunmen abducted more girls. This is not some sdrant problem of the future. Now. As we get nearer to th dangerous. Russia seems to be intent on a course of preventing and disrupting those e legs. We are here to take a stand against intolerance of the sulta of brunai. We have the economic pressure to apply. Nobody is talking about burning anything down. Targeting the Beverly Hills motel is muss directed. We begin with nigeria where eight more girls age 12 to 15 have been abducted by armed militants, suspected boko haram gunmen loaded them on trucks. This follows the ab deduction of 200 girls who opposing western education. The group has threatened to sell them into slavery. Myer year yap president good luck jonathan is accepting help from the United States. Our embassy is prepared to form a coordination cell that could provide expertise on intelligence, investigations and hostage negotiations and to help facility ta information, sharing and victim assistance. The Nigerian Government says it has been working to find the girls but there are doubts about been. In the shortterm, our goal, obviously, is to help the International Community to recover these young ladies, about we are also going to have to deal with the broader problem of organizations like this that can cause such havoc in peoples daytoday lives. For more, we are joined from State College pennsylvania by Jakana Thomas at Michigan State university who has researched the activities of boko haram. She is the author of awarding bad behavior, how governments respond to terrorism in civil war, an indepth study and the number of concessions offered to wars. Good to have you with us. Negotiators. Seems to show the u. S. Is will be to help. Thats despite the conventional wisdom that terrorists. You right this would reward their bad behavior. Right. You said that nigeria has made matters worse because its undermined its credibility in haram . Absolutely. One of the biggest problems nigh year i cant faces is rather than eschewing negotiations. They have at every turn, every single time boko haram has used such tactics by starting civilians and engaging in terrorist tactics, the government has extended negotiations. This essentially rewards behaved because a group would witness that their tactists using terrorist launching terrorist attacks against civilians is actually working. Its benefitting that cause. So, a the government gives them more offers of con offers of negotiations to sit down and negotiate their demands, this makes them think that this is a worthwhile tactic and strategically, this would be a good idea for boko haram. You say its benefited boko harams recruitment . Absolutely. So in some cases like in bono state after the government had come in and cracked down very harshly on boca haram affecting some of the civilians there as well killing civilians while trying to target boko haram ce recruitiment increased and peoples sympathy has increased is. It seems the government does not care and it seems like the government who should be protecting civilians is doing something just as bad or worse in not protecting civilians and actually hurting them in their Counter Terrorism response. Borno being the state where these girls have been kid napdz. There are conflicting stories about whether terrorism is effective. Do you think this is one cause where that has happened . At least early on, its absolutely helped boko haram gain simple pathy. Thats had a lot to do with the Nigerian Governments response. Terrorism doesnt have to benefit the group but when the government does things, engages in Counter Terrorism like the niger yam government has, in these repressive responses, yes, it does work for groups. And so i do believe that tu can certainly help groups gauge negotiations. It can help groups gain concessions in some cases although thats not what we tend to believe happens. Bo boko haram has been killing an all of lot of people. The stilts are all over the place. They claimed responsibility for a bus bombing on the same day the 200 girls were taken. It was a described as apoco 0 limittic. It was described as minor even though it killed scores of people and they say they walk among nigerians and nigerians dont know who they are. How strong is this group . There are estimates that suggest they are not very stock and suggest that they are very strong but i believe that that statement basically explains why counter terryism has been so difficult for nigeria as it is f for most other states. Basically these golfs have identification problem such that they cannot tell who a rebel group is or who terrorists are versus who regular civilians are and so when they do come in to try to combat terrorism, its often inflicts significant cost on the community that they are engaging in these efforts where they are engaging in these efforts. And so i think boko haram is saying that, look. I am here yet you dont know where i am. And that is quite correct, that often governments dont know who the terrorists are. Has a lot to do with their intelligence gathering capabilities, so they dont have significant or substantial intelligence that will tell them who the terrorists and who is just an ordinary civilian and so we dont know exactly how strong boko haram is but we know what ce sever lee hurt the Nigerian Government. They have lost quite a bit of credibility. They have looked incompetent since for years now because they have been completely unable to actually combat boko haram. In this case. Who knows where the kidnapped girls are . Some are said to have been taken to neighboring countries. Girls who are still reportedly until nigeria are being held in a Forest Community but this area that we are talking about, as they are being used, you know, as slaves or wives for some of these military ants, the area is massive. Its about the size of west village and very rugged territory of the the likelihood of getting them back, i know you are not an expert on that but africa . I would think its very, very, very difficult for the government to engage in the right type of operations to get those girls back. Of course, with the United States help, especially with intelligence gathering, its much more feasible that be it was before they got western help, but i think that its going to be very difficult to back. And even if they do, they might actually do more harm by again engaging in these kind of bull in the china shop repressive counterterrorism efforts. So when they go in to try to get the girls who knows if they are not precise enough if they dont do precise special operations, what kind of impact that will have on the captured girls. Lets hope that the u. S. Help does have some effect and that something is done to help these girls. Jocanna thomas, good to have you with us and its good to have your perspective. Thank you . Thank you for having me. Turning to a gloomy Weather Report for the entire country, long longer, hotter summers, drought, flooding, wildpires and more extreme weather. A new Climate Change report released by the white house tuesday says we should all expect that to be the new normal. President obama is using a new tactic to promote action taking it straight to top weathermen. This is a really significant and dangerous problem. Our kids and our grandkids are counting on us to do something about it. For more, we are joined from our studio in washington by kristin affront, associate director for science at the cooperative institute at the university of colorado bolder. She is a lead author of the new lee released National Climate assessment, mopping a team of colorado researchers and scientists who share the 2007 nobel peace price. Great to have you with us. This breaks down whats happening across the United States region by region in the northeast and we are expected to see more heat waves, rain, snow, coastal flooding. The midwest faces longer growing seasons and oddly, there are some better yields in california which is already dealing with drought this year, dprooiksz its going to get dryer. As you look at the totality of your report, what do you see is the worst of it . You know, although there are some dire messages within the report, i think that there is also some opportunities that are really offered in terms of places where we can take action as it relates to the climate and Climate Change. Said, of course, it outlines specific risks that are supposposed t posedto folks particularly in the southwest where we are looking at intentionfication of drought and more wildfire activity. In the northeast, as you mentioned, we are also, we are already seeing the impacts of Climate Change. As we saw, i guess, with sandy and sandys effects and i know thats one of the prediksdz for the northeast that we were going to see more storms that will lead to flooding. But how different is this from the dire warnings we have heard for years . The report says that we have seen an avenue warming of less than two degrees fahrenheit over the past century but that that could actually get to 10 degrees by the end of this century . Yes. That is a possibility. You know, right now, we are committed to a tape degree of Climate Change and, there was, its the impact of Climate Change in the next 10 action 15, 20 years but depending upon what actions we take, both locally, nationally and internationally related to mitigation practices as well as just emissions in general, thats going to define where that temperature, where that temperature trend really goes out to 2100. If we are on our current trajectory, we could see increases in temperatures up, up fahrenheit. What would that mean . Well, i think as you kind of wind the Climate Change clock, the tighter you wind it, the sooner its going to snap and you are going to end up with some very significant tipping points being hit. Tipping points could mean more catastrophic extreme weather events. Unfortunately, we dont know when that might actually happen. On the other hand, the report says that while we are seeing Climate Change, its been somewhat moderate and we are only seeing moderate effects but we are seeing some pretty substantial economic costs. We are seeing some of the economist costs. Said, one has to be very careful in terms of attributing very spevenlths like Hurricane Sandy or the California Drought sandy or the California Drought to Climate Change. If we look at the pattern in terms of the cost of natural drafters over the past 50 years, we are seeing dramatic increases as a consequence of extreme weather events that are happening. Whether or not they are caused by Climate Change, well, the jury is really out on the specific events but we could expect that trend to continue. We have bit on this story quite a lot. The most recently poles show only a third of Americans Care a great deal about Climate Change. Its the same as it was in 19 gliep. You know, we are seeing all of these reports, the u. N. Report, one after another. Do you expect this will have a different response than the others have had. I hope so. The National Climate assessment, the third National Climate assessment is much more in did he have depth. There is more detail. There is no debate any longer about Climate Change. It is happening. And, you know, when i start a conversation with somebody about Climate Change, i dont start it change. I talk about food. I talk about energy. I talk about national security. I thank you about things i talk about jobs. I turn aing employ things that matter to people. And all of those things will be put at risk as a sequence of Climate Change. There are some climate skeptics and there has been criticism that the report is alarmist. Some on the hill are charging that the findings are going to be used to muscle through some costly Emissions Regulations that could cost jobs. The ko institute says the report has a bias towards pessimism. How do you respond to them . Well, the first thing that i would say is, you know, the jury is not out. The jury has come back. We have the verdict. Thats what this report is. We know that the climate is no. Its not necessarily an alarmist report but it is showing we have some risks in our society that we need to address. In terps of being dire and pessimistic. There is a lot of uncertainty about what might happen, what the longterm impacts might be of Climate Change, how it might affect extreme weather. But there are people. There are places, towns, cities, stautsz and regionongons that are really taking action already risk. Talking about those actions, the report is clear, as you said, that we are all a part of the problem. One of our big problems is our dependence on coal and the mieingsz but is it realistic that will be phased out quickly enough especially with opposition from many regarding nuclear power. There are a lot of options across the sgrunings. We are seeing declines in coal and increases in natural gas. Said, well, natural gas is quote, unquote greener, if you will, than a coal. Is still is a greenhouse gas. It still emits greenhouse gases, i should say. We still have to be careful about what the muon or the future. There are going to be impacts no matter what we do. For example, the chapter that i i contributed to, excuse me, the chapter on energy water and land use, what we are looking at is even under a lowcarbon future, there could be some signifcontact impacts for our Water Resources and our land resources. The report is not defining exactly what policy options should be taken. Its really its out lining what are the challenges and tradeoffs associated with differently policy futures, whether they are energy trajectories or not. A lot of things to face and a lot of decisions to make. Kristin affront, its a pleasure to have you with us. Thank you very much. Thank you. Am coming up, north korea wor wordss worst human rights abusee while some plans are leaked allegedly showing china preparing for north korea to collapse. Later, we will talk to ukraines ambassador to the u. N. About the growing tensions with russia and the threat of civil war there. Plus, our associate immediate at that i cant producer tracking the top stories. A video that makes a poetic case against the use of social media has gone viral. Its ironic but the message seems to be resonating with a lot of people. I will tell you more coming up. Let us know what you think throughout the show. We are on twitter at aj consider this and on facebook at facebook. Com consider this. On techknow. Were heading towards the glaciers a global warning is there an environmental urgency . That is closer than you think. Even a modest rise, have dramatic impacts on humankind. How is it changing the way you live today . Techknow. Every saturday, go where science meets humanity. This is some of the best driving ive ever done. Even though i cant see. Techknow. Were here in the vortex. Only on Al Jazeera America north korea is rattlingly what it calls its treasurered sword, its nuclear sabre. Some say they are planning a Game Changing Fourth Nuclear weapons test. A document allegedly leaked from chinas army says beijing is preparing for a collapse whier china calls it groundless, they are calli establishing more catches for ref uming ease. Last week, beijing warned north korea it would by know means allow chaos or war on our doorstep. I am joined here by gordon change who writes on asia gordan, good to have you with us. Beijing certainly does not seem happy with all of the north korean antics. I dont mean to make light of another nuclear is t could bang jing stop this . I think it would be difficult because the chinese easy have been losing influence. This was illustrated by the execution of of the uncle of north koreas leader. He was the man beijing looked to for trying to influence the forth korean regime. We have to remember why they test. The most important reason is they want a deterrent against the United States and against china because china and it korea have been fighting each other for 600, 700 years. China is the only ally they . The North Koreans know the chinese keep north korea in business. The North Koreans figure out if we just get the chinese upset, it doesnt matter because they will give us aid and more food and oil. So the North Koreans do what at the present time to do because they know china wont punish them. What about this document . Do you think its legitimate . I think the chinese have had contingency plans for this at least going back to the middle of the 1990s when you had the great famine in north korea and you did have refugees going across the border into china. Were this is real or not, i dont know if that is true but the point is, china is looking at this because they understand has. What about the timing of this leak . Is that significant, given we nuclear test . Thats probably something along the lines of where i would be thinking largely because the chinese want to slow the North Koreans down, create some second thoughts in their minds and one of the ways to do is to leak through the japan

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