field. it's "inside story". welcome to "inside story", i'm ray suarez. the democratic field vying for that party's democratic nomination is shaller than the republican one. at the moment there are five people. veteran office holders who decided they'd like to put themselves before voters for a shot at the white house. they are in alphabetical order, former rhode island governor and u.s. senator lynn john chaffey. hillary clinton, former maryland governor and baltimore major martin o'malley. senator baned baned, an -- bernie sanders, a former senator. and jim webb. at the moment that's it. the political press is speculating about a big name mulling a shot at the top job in american politics. here is al jazeera america's david shuster. >> reporter: sources close to joe biden tell al jazeera, he's encouraged top supporters and advisors to build a presidential campaign. the outreach to donors and organizers is the latest indication that many of biden's staff and backers believe he'll join the race. senator bernie sanders says the vice president will be a strong and compelling rival. presidential speaksman josh ernst praised joe biden's political judgment. >> the president indicated his view that the decision he made, i guess even years ago now, to add joe biden to the ticket as his running mate was the smartest decision in the white house. the president at a private lunch encouraged the vice president to get into the race. the focus on joe biden, and white house encouragement as hillary clinton deals with questions over her private email system as secretary of state. server? something. >> reporter: now with the fbi investigating clinton's numbers, her approval is dropping. asked about a challenge. campaign chairman told reporter: several strategists believe a joe biden could syphon support away from clinton, helping sanders. fuelled by progressive, the vermont senator is leading clinton in new hampshire. joe biden ran for president twice before, and though he has a higher profile now as vice president, the changes are huge. organising a presidential campaign, attracting donors can take time. for all of joe biden's authenticity, like when health care became law. gaffes. >> i promise you the president has a big stick. >> reporter: good afternoon, mr vice president, can we have a quick word. >> reporter: joe biden and supporters believe the stars may be aligning for him. the vice president has not made a decision, and may not decide until before the first democratic vote in october, joe biden's team is taking shape and preparing for him to run. what are the splits, tears, tendencies in the party that you have to watch. what have we seen in clinton, sanders and o'malley campaign to tell you about the race. besides breathing up a lot of oxygen, is donald trump drowning out the fledgeling democratic campaigns, can they get attention. what about vice president biden. joining us for that, tom, a democratic analyst, angela, principal and c.e.o. at impact strategies, and brett, a political consultant with democracy partners. i have brought you all here the best reasons why or why not. we'll start with joe biden, if you were trying to convince him to get in, what would you tell him, or get out, what would you tell him. >> to get in i'd tell him he has a shot, it's early. he's an authentic guys, a straight talker that america seems to like noum. and has a great resume. 40 years in the senate. 6.5. incredible image, working as a diplomat. he's a strong candidate at this time. not getting into it. you need to do what is best for the family. he's a family man when it comes to it. that's probably where the decision will lie. >> angela? >> i would tell him that there are wings of the democratic party that don't have a candidate. joe biden appeals to white blue call or workers, there are fern american loyalists who superior president obama and forgot na secretary of state. if it is, indeed, the case that his son encouraged him to run as a dying wish, certainly they should follow what his son suggested. on the other side, i would say that many in the democratic party believe that this is hillary clinton's time. pt super pact was called ready for hillary. they'll say her stars have aligned. and whose stars are aloning. >> i agree with tom. i was trying to get him to get into the race. he has a great record, not only as a senator, but under the obama administration, they have done health care. the iran deal. i think he has a story to tell, he has overcome a lot of. translation: di, people connect sympathy. as far as not getting in, what concerns me is i'm not his heart is in it. i don't think you can question a vice president's heart. whether he wants to do this. wait this long shows a hesitancy, and running for ibbal. >> the great resume point, is that what people are looking for in a year when a guy with no attention. >> i think that's a big problem. you are looking at donald trump, and looking at outsiders. joe biden has been an insider for 40 years. >> most of his life. >> all of my life, in fact. i think there's a concern that what he's selling, people may not look for in 2016. >> i think he is the one politician that comes to mind when i think of someone that has effectsively navigated the insider role. when he was a u.s. senator. joe biden took the train home to delaware. it says something different. i don't think that it is at all. i think it managed and navigated elected official relations. that is why he's very, very respected. i wi say one other things that gives me pause is the fact that dick cheney and his daughter urge him to run. i want to know what they know that i don't know. maybe my opposition here can help me figure that out. >> i've been a big-time politician since the '70s, is that a pitch you want to make to the american public. >> i think part of trump's appeal is his strait talk. he's a straight talker, he says it how it is. he's less calculated of a politician than most. he may resonate. the difference between him and trump is while he's a straight talker, he can explain the policy position, trump. >> he can name three countries. >> he has policy positions. >> right. >> i think as democrats, we are excited for joe biden because we think he can go toe to toe with jump. he's an alpha dog and stand up and debate him and not be whip the. the republicans are finding out some of their own folks can't stand up. >> what about bernie sanders, seems he can do that. >> i personally like bernie sanders, i don't know how many view him as a president quite yet. there's a hurdle that he has to get over before people say okay, whelm take him seriously. it's not to say he can do it. i don't think he has done it inside and outside d.c. >> what are the issues that will frame the democratic race in the coming months. with the democratic incumbent in the white house, as popular as unpopular, house does a nominee deal with the white house of a candidate they supported and urged people to vote for. the democratic field, it's "inside story". >> drilling in the arctic. >> rapid change is always an alarming thing to see. >> as the ice caps recede... and the ocean opens up... how can we protect our natural resources? >> this is what innovation looks like. >> scientists reveal cutting-edge technologies... >> you can look beyond the horizon and extend your reach. >> that could avert disaster while helping save the planet. >> i feel like i have a front row seat for some very dramatic changes. you're watching "inside story", i'm ray suarez, we have devoted several programmes to the huge field and diverse candidates. tonight we turn to the democrats. tuning into a candidates forum. the president of the united states comes up a lot. the republican candidates don't like him, unleashing an attack on his time in office. his judgment, record. assignments are a little more complicated for the democratic candidates, aware that the approval numbers have not been above water for years. they like the votes of people that like the president, and those that don't. how will the different politicians deal with a 2-time president, one na works in the oval office. >> is it - am i making it out to be too tough an assignment? >> i think you are making it out too tough. here is why? when the president was running for re-election, first in 2011. approval rating was low. when you got closer to the election, they were lower, they don't have much to worry about, they have their own approval ratings in favour of the ratings do deal with. maintain the polls in the cycle. i don't think they should put much stock in that. they need to be careful thou message certain achievements. there are things to go over well with some party members. >> is it as clear as that. this is a guy who is, when you do public opinion research, how do you handle president obama. if you look at the polls, president obama is one aheads of mitt romney. if you look at the polling, hillary clinton is 6-9 points ahead. i think they are at a net ahead. democrats however it is is outpacing republicans. democrats are ahead regardless rating. >> are there things that could happen making the president more or less of a liability. the market shed 2,000 points, it's a rushous time. i think the people running for the nomination have to court it, not run away from it. it won the last two elections. when they don't come out. democrats lose. they need to focus to get the same folks to come out. >> if i hired you, you'd run to be obama third term. >> i don't think you'd run away from it. i don't think it worked for al gore in 2000. i don't think the blokes can run away, they have to stand up and accomplished. they have to speak to the coalition. they need to talk about the that goes on. >> and bernie sanders, is he going be a bike factor nine months from now, as big as he is today. >> depends what happens with the vice president. he is playing his role. you need folks like that. it's like trump, forcing issue. we are seeing the same thing. big grabs. >> similar to the crowds that they were getting at the same time. that's the same coalition. similarly, the poll numbers - we saw the canada surging to the nominee. i don't think he'll be as prominent. >> do you feel that way. >> i don't think he'll disappear. i think the senator speaks to a group of people, and speaks to them well. >> you can't afford for them to stay hem. >> he talks about their issues, and has been for his whole career. they are continuing to do so. people make fun of the crowds. but i think it says something. people are enthusiastic for him. i don't think there's going to go away whether he's neck and neck with secretary clinton or whether he's not. consultant. >> tom is an analyst and angela is the principle and c.e.o. of impact strategies. >> a big part of running a national campaign in the era of big data is not only n understand, what the country as a whole wants. but what the minority who show up to vote want in an if the and what those that help choose the nominee want. what the fms tells 5 months before caucus goers venture out. it's "inside story". welcome back to "inside story", oig luis suarez. tonight on the programme we are focussing on the democratic field. there's plenty we know about the early states and potential primary vote potentials. what does a candidate have to know about the voters, what do they make about the last seven years, are they optimistic about the state of the country. what is the mix, we'll help them make up their minds as they prepare to vote. joining us from new york, a professor of political science at columbia university, and author of "red state, blue state - rich state, poor state." what do you think it's important to know as candidates head to the country? >> most important thing is predict. the general president is predictable. at the national level, based on economic conditions, and at the state to state level. most states vote the way they did four years ago. but for primary elections things are more predictable, changeable. i think we have to accept there's an unknown there. >> it's a tremendous undertaking running on 15 different election days. iowa, new hampshire are front loaded with south carolina behind. it gives candidates is chance to show their stuff in three different regions among ut might say different audiences. >> it's different elections, more to the point. you have two candidates. different party labels. different positions. they are bounced. in the primary election, multiple candidates who are similar. you take, joe biden, hillary clinton, issues are not that different on a lot of big issues they are similar. what do voters use to make up their mind. >> part of it is you are voting as the next president, but who is the moment electable. when it's down to two candidates, it can be simpler, when there's three or more, you don't want to waste the vote on number three. there's a lot of jockeying, people want to be in the top tier. there's no reason why a position. >> you heard the political process dismissing the polls, one has hillary clinton way ahead in iowa, but behind chris sandow in newhampshire, you look at numbers closely. what do polls tell us about the fluidity of a race. >> early polls don't tell us that much. months before the election, polls are not going to tell you very much. polls months before the election can tell awe lot about the strength of the two parties we can predict. when it comes to situation where they are running in the same party, i agree with the people you had earlier, that you karnt trust what people -- can't trust what people say, doesn't tell you much about what people will vote in february. >> some have been writing about, talking about a built-in demographic advantage going into 2016. as someone that analyses and teaches this stuff. analysis? >> i think that a built-in locked in advantage is the kind of thing you hear when one party wins two elections in a row. a few years ago there was a built-in republican advantage, because republicans are winning few elections. it would not take much for republicans to win. they didn't do too badly in 2012, a small vote swing would do it. >> for instance, with thousands of young latinos. every week from now until the 2020s. it doesn't change the complexion of the pool. that could take play. >> well, it's possible. but if we took a 3% national swing, that would be larger than any of these demographic changes. from election to election, there's not much change. i doubt given the history in america. i doubt the parties will be knocked out or change their focus. it's true ta what works now may not be working in 10 years. i don't think that means the republican party will go away. issues. >> quickly, before we go, is there one poll metric that you'll watch closely in the next six months. >> i think i'll relax and not stare at the polls. they'll be more of a distraction. >> andrew teaches political science and an author. thank you for joining us. >> i'll be back in a minute with a final thought on covering the long slog between now and the first primaries, why it's important and why it's a pain in the neck. stay with us, it's "inside story". >> we're here to fully get into the nuances of everything that's going on, not just in this country, but around the world. getting the news from the people who are affected. >> people need to demand reform... >> ali velshi on target weeknights 10:30p et this is a great place to work. not because they have yoga meetings and a juice bar. because they're getting comcast business internet. comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. and it takes- done. - about an hour. get reliable internet that's up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. call 800-501-6000 to switch today. perks are nice. but the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. comcast business. built for business. you're probably already paying attention to the presidential races as they shape up in both parties. i know that. but millions, tens of millions of fellow citizens are not. the nominating conventions are about a year from now. votes will be cast for the next president, more than 14 months from now. if the iran deal is ratified and they play by the rules, if unemployment is below 5%. if the annual u.s. federal budget deficit continues to drop. if the mid east allies turn a corner in the fight against i.s.i.l. the race for president is different to what it is today. lines of attack, core issues, will be undermined for some candidates. who knows if any, some or all of these things will happen. >> during my career in the news business i watched as reporters shifted to explain what happened to viewers and listeners to predict what is happening. for the next 14 months, i'll work hard to help you understand what is happening, not what hasn't happened yet. okay? i'm ray suarez, that's "inside story". >> [ ♪ ] on "america tonight" - don't mess with you mum. >> every won want a sandwich, get over here. >> just as mothers keep things understand control in their community sara hoy in chicago, with the women warriors, keeping trouble off their streets. >> alaska - baked. a fiery season and warning about what may lie ahead. >> smells like a fire place a month later.