Transcripts For ALJAZAM Real Money With Ali Velshi 20140128

ALJAZAM Real Money With Ali Velshi January 28, 2014

This is real money. You are the most important part of the show so join our live conversation for the next half hour aaj reelaj really money ad alivelshi. Take a look at how the Dow Jones Industrial average sank and then bounced back monday before finishing in the red. That is what i mean by volatility. When the roller coaster ride was over the dow ended down about a quarter of 1 . The broader s p 500 index fell more than half a percent and the techheavy flad nasdaq did worst losing more than 1 . This is not horrific. But the last seven days make this very clear, the 52 of you who do own stocks have to adjust to a new reality, after a year, when the s p rose 15 . Well talk about the reasons for these market jitters in a moment including worries about emerging markets. Right now lets review couple of terms that youre likely to hear and read about if this volatility continues. Market correction. Thats when stocks fall at least 10 from their highs. We are not close to that right now. Weve not had a genuine correction since october of 2011 and some market professionals who watch patterns in the market say we might be dwu for one. Due for one. Nobody has talked about a bear market, thats when stocks fall at least 20 . The last time we had a bear market the Federal Reserve had to bail out the market. Last ben bernanke term as chairman, against the backdrop of volatility. On day 2 of their meeting well find out if the fed continued what they started, pulling back on the stimulus that kept Interest Rates low for years. Most analysts speculate that they will gradually drawback, hurting currencies and stock markets in emerging markets. David shuster has the story. For the last several years the u. S. Federal reserve has kept Interest Rates low, keeping the cost of borrowing down, and investors placing their moneys on emerging markets, turkey, india and brazil where rates of return are often higher than other investments. Meanwhile china has helped fuel the growth, but now that the fed is letting rates go higher and china just reported a slow down in manufacturing for the first time in six months, investors are getting nervous. China certainly is important to many emerging markets, especially those that are commodity exporters. So any signal or any indication that chinas growth is slowing even more and this Manufacturing Index that was released last week points in that direction, those kind of indicators of even weaker chinese growth i think begin to get a lot of players in these markets quite worried and quite upset. Not just about china but also about the ramifications for other emerging markets. Over the last few days investors have been pulling their cash out of emerging markets and bringing it back to more stable markets and economies such as the United States. The transfer has been hurting the developing nations leading to a run on their currencies. In the last month the turkish lira has fallen 16 to the dollar. The real has fallen by 8 . Makes it harder for these economies to service their debt. Higher inflation reduces the purchasing power of people who live there. As a result u. S. Companies will sell fewer goods to these companies and that means smaller earnings for u. S. Companies calling on global sales. Together with the feds decision to let Interest Rates rise higher have caused investors to scramble here in the United States. Beginning to tighten that has hurt the emerging world, in particular the prospect for higher Interest Rates in the u. S. Means that all of a sudden u. S. Investments start to look more attractive relative to the emerging market investments. Some moneys coming back into the u. S. , and away from the emerging world. But its coming back to the traditional safe havens like u. S. Treasuries not to the stocks of u. S. Companies. And so the dow has dropped leaving Many Americans wondering if the strong bull market of the last year will soon come to an end. David shuster, al jazeera. Well, jeff dennis has been covering emerging markets for more than 20 years and says that the big worry is that market turbulence could eventually weigh on the american economy. He serves as the global head of emerging Market Strategy of ubs. That sort of addresses why my viewers should care about whats going on in emerging markets and is having an effect on our stock market. Why this is happening in emerging markets why do we care . I dont think the biggest risk of this is that it will affect the u. S. Market. In fact the house view here is that the turbulence we have seen so far have not deter the u. S. And the european markets improving this year. Certain amount of risks, markets dont like the volatility that weve seen recently and also there is the possibility that down the road you could Wealth Effects on consumers not just the u. S. Of course but around the world and companies also dont like to see the current volatility because it might affect their desire to invest. But overall so far i think this turbulence is not significant enough to really affect the u. S. Economy its just a risk out there. But you did Say Something you did look at these companies that are suffering, when you look at the s p 500 which affects the investments of many of my viewers if they have a 401 k or ira, much of the volatility comes from things sold to people in other countries. And china is not doing well. It all began in my view with a concern over the socalled flash purchasing Managers Index that came out of china on thursday morning which got everybody going about concerns the economy will slow there. If the chinese economy were to slow sharply that would be a negative around the world for developed economies as well as for emerging markets. We happen to think that is extremely unlikely, and it doesnt signal a sharp slow down in china. I think thats what the markets have really started to worry about. And when that came through that encouraged the markets to start looking at the countries that have got weak fundamentals in such places as turkey, or the ukraine is all that new. It just took the chinese data to focus on that. In argentina, turkey and ukraine its not a generalized matter. What should my viewers who gained 30 gains across the board do in this environment . We are certainly still telling investors that the u. S. Market will go up over the course of 2014. Its just that i think having seen a 30 rally last year, that maybe we would use some sort of pause. So i think that what investors ought to do is probably wait it out, see if were going to go down a little bit more in the near term. But to be honest i think would the u. S. Economy like to do well this year, with the fed still providing liquidity, they will continue to taper, i think investors should look for a buying opportunity possibly before too long. I think as far as emerging markets are concerned, which is obviously what i focus on day by day, the real issue here is at what point do you start to look at sell of these economies like turkey at some of these economies like turkey like argentina like brazil, i think it may be a little bit premature for that to be the case. So the logical thing here is the u. S. And european markets will probably bottom out before emerging markets do. This will create a nice buying opportunity eventually. All estimates is that the Global Economy is on track for a slightly better 2014 thea than. Jeff is the emerging markets manager for ubs. Thank you. Human resources department. They didnt make me feel like i was some poor person that needed to borrow money out of the cash advance place. I didnt feel that way at all and that meant a lot to me. Coming up, well look at workplace loans and are they a benefit in the long run. Iphones, leftover, the business is good. Thats real money keep it right here. Lawmakers in washington have ended their two year fight over a farm bill with a bipartisan deal, it cuts food stamps by 800 million a year or around 1 . The full house could vote on the bill as soon as wednesday and well keep you posted on that. Economists have been warning about the rise in automation for decades. That machines will be able to replace human labor. Rapid pace of innovation and the variety of jobs at risk of being eliminated while speaking at the World Economic forum. Martin ford, author of lights in the tunnel, automation, accelerating technology and the economy of the future. Martin, good to have you here, thank you for being with us. Thank you. You sort of argued that the middle class has already lost a lot of jobs to automation but you think its going to go higher up the food chain into higher skilled jocks as well. Thats right. We already have a polarized job market, meaning the jobs in the middle, the good solid middle class jobs have already been automated and we are lost with lower level and higher jobs that require college degrees. I think Going Forward that missing hollowed out middle will get larger and larger. Ibms watson the computer that went on jeopardy is the example of Technology Moving into the higher level jobs at the same time advancing robotics and Self Service Technologies is going to hit away at the lower level jobs. Its going to be more of a problem Going Forward. We had a ceo of Robotics Company saying that the labor cost cuts meant ramped up production lines and as a result more demand for workers in other parts of the business. Is that a feasible argument . Thats true in some areas. In manufacturing, for example, some manufacturing is actually coming back to the United States because robots are making it lower cost. But that doesnt mean there are going to be many jobs there. You know what we have seen is that as robots eliminate jobs in one area that companies dont necessarily need to hire people in other areas. So across the board i really think that the impact in the longer term is going to be that were simply not going to have enough jobs to go around. This is a tricky conversation because most people would think automation is generally good, it lowers prices, automation is sort of the way things go. What is the solution to wanting more technology and wanting more automation and not killing off more mainstream middle class and even higher earning jobs . That is paradox, automation and technology has historically been a very good thing, its made us all more prosperous. But up until this point automation has increased the productivity of workers and made them more flexible. But were reaching an Inflection Point where things are going to change rapidly and a great many people, most people are going to find that their labor becomes less valuable instead of more valuable. Something of the changes will be quite radical. We look forward to talk with you more about that. Thats going to need a whole nother discussion to figure out that. Martin ford good to talk to you, author of the lights in the tunnel Automation Accelerating Technology and the economy of the future. Chances are you have heard of payday loans, short term high Interest Rate loans with high default rates and high fees because they are so hard for people to pay back on time. In fact they are illegal in about 20 states that consider them predatory. Now theres a new kid on the block workplace loans. Offered by their employer, build as a safer and smarter alternative to payday lenders. You avoid late fees because loans are paid back. Through your employer but Stacy Tisdale says, let the buyer beware. Accepting a job as an account manager at medical Billing Company patient focus. The move hit me financially at the wrong time. Of the year so there really wasnt a lot of time to save in preparation for christmas. Soon after starting her new position melissa learned her employer offered a benefit called workplace loans. I

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