This is real money. This is the most important part of the show. Tweet me ali velshi or on facebook. Com ali velshi. It has been a week of escalating tensions between ukraine and russia, but it took a sunday down grade to break the back of already jittery world markets. A global down turn in stocks crossed the atlantic and hit the dow and s p 500. The nasdaq took a bigger hit, 1. 75 . Investors may have reacted badly to the lowered russian bond rating that is now one notch above junk status. Visas stock fell 5 . Still Standard Poors decision to down grade russias Credit Rating hit like a bolt of lightening. The s p with a record flight out of russia. 51 billion since the beginning of this year. This is just one more blow to russias economy way was already showing signs of stress before it decided to intervene in ukraine. The russian rubel has lost 8 against the dollar and the Russian Central Bank raised its key lending to 7. 5 . President obama is drumming up support among his european allies for more sanctions. There are reports that he wants to take aim at russias financial sector. Last week the world bank warned that russias economy, the eighth largest in the world, could shrink by as much as 1. 8 this year if the u. S. Were to slap for sanctions on it. So far the United States and the European Union has enacted what some think are pinprick sanctions. Wider sanctions on russian finances would ripple across world markets. Thats why the crisis with ukraine weighed so heavily on markets today. For more on russian sanctions and the rest of the world. We have this report. Reporter a shot across the kremlins bough. Yesterday secretary of state john kerry promised more sanctions. Let me be clear. If russia continues in this direction, it will not just be a grave mistake. It will be an expensive mistake. So far western sanctions to reign in moscow has been limited largely targeted members of russian president Vladimir Putins inner circle, a bank with kremlin ties and a crimean gas company. Western leaders have not said how they would broaden those measures. But experts believe the most powerful sanctions would aim to isolate russia financially by blocking access to international pavement systems and western investment. If we cut them off from that we could force a very rapid adjustment of the sort we saw in 2008 in global markets. Russia is deeply entwined in Global Financial markets relying on billions in foreign money to finance cross border trade investment as well as international pavement systems to process transactions. Its that level of integration and sophistication that makes russia so vulnerable. So much so that even a spector of them are scaring foreign investors. A russian Statement Development bank said it may have to pay a nearly near loan. S p downgraded russias credit to just above junk. It would not be painless for the west especially for european nations who do a trade with russia. The u. S. Could do this on their own. They dont need europe to go fully with them because these are u. S. Banks, u. S. Pavement system and u. S. Money center that is at the core of global markets. Reporter al jazeera, new york. Now sanctions against russians banks would deal a devastating blow to russian economy. Were joined from the companys headquarters in texas. Lauren, good to talk to you. Thank you for being with us. Thank you. Lets start with this idea, the u. S. When it comes to banking sanctions could possibly do it on its own. Do you believe thats true . I dont believe the u. S. Can do it on its own. The issue is what types of sanctions are they looking to impose . There are two leaks that have come out of senior white house unnamed officials, of course, in which they say theyre going to target two specific banks inside of russia, and these two banks are critical to the kremlin, but it is different than just sanctions across the entire banking sector. Theyre targeting the two banks that provide specific functions for the russian government instead of banks that holds the common persons assets. Theyre targeting specifically the kremlins use and functionality. Look at iran for instance. You know a lot of sanctions didnt work. When they stopped the iranians ability to use the International Banking system for transfers that would have to be made in euros or dollars, some argue is what brown iran to its knees. This may be the thing that will work on russia. It possibly could. I mean, the United States, if the United States enacts these sanctions, the next question is are they going to require European Companies abide by the u. S. Sanctions rules. They need to get the europeans on board. But the problem is one of the banks that is used to help finance and process natural gas payments from europe into russia. So if there are sanctions on the banks, how are the europeans going to pay their natural gas bills to russia. Lets talk about other options that the white house has followed so far, that is sanctions on individuals. Ive been speaking with a former Prime Minister of russia, he said these olagarts love the west. They have property here. They invest here. Those could be more effective than maybe we think they are. They may love vacationing in the u. S. But there are other places to vacation as well. What is on the e. U. And u. S. Sanctions list decided to defy them and vacation in sweden. There were pictures on his instagram and twitter page of him vacationing and defying the e. U. Sanctions. We havent seen any bite from those sanctions yet. There is some sense that they will expand this. Do you think it would have an effect . Theyll sit around and tell him, look, youre ruining things for us. It would be both ways. Currently gas is in negotiations with the e. U. Over a probe at this moment. Saying there has to be free travel movement for gas bumps into europe. How can the e. U. Deal on Energy Issues with russia if they cant have meetings with the ceo . Lets talk about ukraine and the natural gas situation ukraine is about a year and a half, a year behind its payments to russia. What is the impact of that . Well, they owe around 11 billion currently. They have announced a new figure. Theyre waiting for the imf, the e. U. And the u. S. To start trickling into ukraine because then they know those loans would be trickling into russia. This is complicated. We mentioned stock markets took a big hit. Visa is one of those companies. Half the dows loss was because of visa. And theyre talking about setting up a Payment System in russia that would exclude visa, mastercard and Companies Like that. Is that type of thinking possible . Could russia Start Building its own isolationist infrastructure that would hurt American Companies . Well, russia has dissed this for years about having its own domestic processing facility like visa , like mastercard. Currently they make up 90 of processing payment inside russia. It would be incredibly expensive and complex, and we have not seen russia pull off such a move yet. It doesnt mean that the Economy Ministry isnt determined to do it. Theyve been meeting on this all week. Its going to happen at any time, its going to happen now. Lauren, always a pleasure. You know so much about this. Were grateful for that. Lauren, a senior eurasian analysts. It could break havoc on food Farmers World identify. Get ready for el nino. Well have more on what that could do. And also what could be the biggest thing to hit College Sports . The vote by players to form an union. Plus this. Im focusing on firearms and whats driving sales up in america. 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Results of analyses were skewed in favor of the prosecution the fbi cant force the states to look at those cases the truth will set you free yeah. Dont kid yourself the system has failed me the brutal winter brought freezing temperatures and chilled the United States. The economy is thankfully behind us but now were being warmed about an infamous wor warm weather system called el nino. It can leave droughts and expensive damage in their wake. And that could end up being a good thing for areas of the United States desperately in need of rain. Reporter at its worst el nino can look like this. It could be a rainfall in regions that are typically dry and drought in other places. Thats what happened in 1997 and 1998 when one of the strongest el nino systems in decades reached hal havoc. El nino is not always this severe but because of its climate reach were monitoring Ocean Temperatures closely. There is a 70 chance that el nino will develop this year, but there is no telling how strong it will be. You can think of it as a sloshing of the warm weather and the pacific. And normally almost all of the warm weather in the pacific is bunched up towards nearby, towards thailand, towards australia. Thats maintained by the wind, and its blown to the equator and you pushes the warm water to that end. Reporter when that warm water moves, it changes temperatures, wind and rain patterns around the world. In the u. S. It could bring good news. El nino could help relief droughts in california and the southwest, but its effects are not expected to be felt until november. Generally speaking in an el nino wintertime youre looking at increased rainfall along the west coasts, away from Washington State to los angeles then more defused increased rainfall across the whole part of the southwest. For markets predicting the price of commodities, el nino makes brokers sit up and take notice especially after the agriculture lost billions in 97 and 98. That woke a lot of people up, it certainly woke me up in just how devastating the el nino can be and the effect s of agriculture. With the potential of crops to suffer in other parts of the world. In indonesia and australia el nino could mean less rainfall posing a threat of drought. Much more rain in places like peru and ecuador running the risk of flooding. Were such an International Market any hiccups we see around the world effects prices here in chicago. Were watching it. For now the only thing that is certain is that these are only forecasts. Mary snow, al jazeera. Well, what Mother Nature has in store could spell more trouble for u. S. Retailers already hurt by the harsh winter. Thats according to a man who forecasts the weather to help his retail manufacturing and corporate clients strategize. He is Weather Trends International ceo bill kirk. He said that some of the trends hes seeing could be recession near. He joins me now, bill, you are a meteorologist and youre a forecaster. Its not just the weather. Its a whole bunch of other things, formulas and calculations. What are you most worried about . Well again, el nino, its a lot of hype because its one of those climate cycles that youve heard about for many years and weve had some bad ones. There are other cycles that are not as glamorous but have impact. One thing that everyone is alarmed about is the sub surface. For the first time in this el nino we can see 300 feet below the surface of the ocean where el nino is forming, and we see water temperatures 6 degrees celsius above average. When you see 6 degrees above average water temperatures just 300 feet below the surface, thats a problem. Thats speaking that this could be a very strong el nino and that does have impacts on everything. One of the thingswhen i read some of the stuff youre predicting, i thought you said were going to have a warmer winter in the northeast and midwest for 20142015, and that did nothing but thrill me, but there is stuff to worry about here . Well again, i call these recessionary trends because its out of the ordinary. We had all the wrong weather for retail. We need warm and dry weather for summer. Seasonal snow for the winter but not so much that it hurts everys q 1 earnings. The concern that well continue those trends in 2014. The last time we had backtoback extreme weather was in 20072008, we had other macroeconomic factors but it was weathers that lit suppliers from around the world. I want to talk about drought in a second, but i want to talk about cool summers. Weve had bumper crops in states where theyre not suffering from drought. And it probably means bumper crops again . Yes, corn, and they want to say that cold sump means that corn is not going to yield. We have grade a numbers that they need by september. Its a cold summer but its still summer plenty of growing days for that corn to mature. Bumper crop means lower prices but means good news for you and i. Not those who are concerned about the dry weather, the droughts. Theyre not going to get the relief until this el nino were to kick in full force, thats unfortunately, december, january, february, march. The drought continues in those areas, southwest texas. We do show california the dryest in ten years. El nino is much like the 70s. Its not to say that this is going to be the flooding and the malibu floods of 82, 83 when mansions were falling into the pacific ocean. Not every el nino is that extreme. Time will tell, but ample rain looks like its coming from about a year from now. Hurricanes, what does it look like . El nino has created wind sheer. Were in a 30 year low in the atlantic and 50 year low globally. Thats part of the cycle. El nino will make it worse in terms of suppressing the activity. The storms are way below average. If you look at some of those bad years, 93 with andrew we had a below average season but we had a major hurricane hit miami. So it only takes one. But its harder to get a major hurricane in an el nino type pattern. Now in the pacific. Sorry, go ahead. In the pacific its a different story. In mexico it could be humbled by hurricanes. Hawaii runs a risk of a hurricane. Ill put up those predictions of yours. The last one talks about precious metals. The negative impact of el nino and precious metals. We have a client and i was miffed when they became a client. There is a gold mine in mexico, chile, a lot of gold mines, because of the pdo, a cold phase of the pacific ocean, and its a 30year phase. Its around for a long time and it started in 2007. When you look at the precipe trends in mexico, chile, its like they dropped off a cliff. They started a sevenyear drought when the pacific went cold. Its a different cycle. You cant pull gold out of a mine if there is no ground water. You need a lot of water to pull gold out of a mine. The good news, will it be too much of a good thing . Very likely theyll have the wettest conditions of ten years later next year, again, but that may be too much of a good thing. Again, you know, they need the water. Water is better than drought, certainly. Bill, alwaysi always learn so much listening to you. You know these things so well. Ceo of Weather Trends International joining truss bethlehem, pennsylvania. Northwestern Football Players vote whether to join a labor union. Im looking at finances behind americas fascination with guns. There is more real money after the break. The debate that divides america, unites the critics, a reason to watch Al Jazeera America the standout Television Event borderland, is gritty honesty. A lot of people dont have a clue what goes on down here, the only way to find out, is to see it yourselves. Taking viewers beyond the debate. Dont miss Al Jazeera Americas critically acclaimed series borderland on Al Jazeera America also available on demand on Al Jazeera America when science intersects with hope. Im hoping to give someone a prosthetic arm for under 1000 inovation finds oppurtunity a large earthquake would be an inconvenience rather than a disaster. And hardware meets humanity this is some of the best driving ive ever done eventhough i cant see. Techknow our experts take you beyond the lab were here in the vortex. And explore the Technology Changing our world. Only on Al Jazeera America so heres the thing you may not have known. Jetblue has operated without unions for years. But the airline may have reached a tipping point. Just this tuesday its pilots voted to join an union. Now the flight attends may not be far behind. Reuters say the transport works union of america is working with the flight attends on collecting authorization cards that would allow them to hold an election. Employees can authorize a vote if 50 plus one person signs the cards. They have 4,000 flight attends and this is the second time that the union has tried to organize them. Today was an historic day for College Sports. Just outside of chicago cast ballots to decide if they want to be represented by an union. The vote came after a regional director of the National LaborRelations