Transcripts for BBC Radio 5 Live BBC Radio 5 Live 20191107 1

BBC Radio 5 Live BBC Radio 5 Live November 7, 2019 130000

On a gallery for the upcoming South Africa Test series b.b.c. 5 Live this week well this is new Alice 5 Live Mike we all saw mills and Chris Saturday mornings but even less have it where you need your help on every such a night on the level am I mean it's a lifestyle show interest but it's a massive loss so Chinese fraud in order to ruin. The week Sunday morning from. Killing Me and some big ass as we said kick back to over everything that's bad to our imagination this week you sound so you we can do c.b.c. Radio follies life the coolest thing you can say this is b.b.c. 5 Live. So big show today as you can imagine it was a big shot 5 minutes past one we have well acting royalty writer director son of Charlie Sheen Martin Sheen I should say and brother of Charlie Sheen Emilio Estefan is on the show discussing some pretty deep topics. So I don't I don't believe that any of us walk the earth pain free I don't believe that anybody any of us are trauma free and how we deal with that trauma is oftentimes what I explore in the films his film the public comes out in January of next year is a really really interesting conversation with a minister is talking about his father talking about his father's dictions talking about his own journey through and it's interesting Hollywood movie system course magine being born into that life and then choosing to do the kind of things that you want to do make the films you want to do perhaps some of you will remember watching The Breakfast Club not I'm very particularly intrigued by a huge movie for people of a certain generation also a documentary the way it's so uplifting just listen to this. The. Real need opera in our lives is something I never thought I'd hear myself say. Being as I have from a stone Chile hip hop background. But the beauty of opera is something the opera Holland Park trying to bring to a wider audience isn't the man who runs opera Holland Park is a guy called Marco Volpi who you know grew up on a council estate Chelsea fan but when held against him and he's made this really fascinating documentary about. Opera and to veterans people who've served in our armed forces who struggled with their mental health of the leaving the armed forces and connecting them with this remarkable documentary called into the law it's a documentary the way coming and catching up with 2 veterans who have been on this . Extraordinary extraordinary experience of connecting with Oprah later on in the show plus Jay rain is going to be here as well so I mean we got a lot to get in now last week I was in North Wales on holiday with wife kids and a dog and we were in a place called Conway and the gangway beautiful place you'd never been go check them out I was walking past the pub and outside the pub was a sign and that sign read elect Teil dysfunction the inability to be aroused by any of the party standing for election so if you are suffering from electoral dysfunction then we have a clinic for you here our election clinic that's copyright by the way of a pub in calm way in North Wales but I just thought it was so funny that I would quote it to you elect oil dysfunction this is something you could be suffering from and I'll just say the definition again the inability to be aroused by any of the parties standing for election. So if there is something you just don't get about the election that we're having whether it's how the parties line up on a particular policy area because there's more to life than bricks it like education n.h.s. Jobs or whether you want to know how to register to vote we're going to open this election clinic where we deal with things other than just purely electoral dysfunction there are other things that we will also deal with so are you thinking of giving your vote to a different party than the person that you voted for in 2017 or 2015 or 2010 or 2016 crew Fiske an exhausting amount of day in such a long amount of time so getting contact with us now tactical voting is something that we're going to be talking about today because you may like the m.p. But not like the policies of the party that they represent You may think they might be a great constituency in local M.P.'s We can't vote for them because you can't stand what the party stands for Perhaps you like the party but you don't like the local candid it perhaps and let's bring the b. Word in here it's all about bricks it and your m.p. Doesn't believe the same thing that you do but they are good constituency m.p. This is really really interesting territory to help us out we have Dr Felicity Matthews who seen electoral politics University of Sheffield we have Joe Twyman who's co-founder and director of the polling company Delta poll and in what's in the B.B.C.'s political correspondent who be joining me in a few moments time today the Liberal Democrats plied Comrie and the Greens have announced the general election pact designed to maximize support for pro remain candid means the parties want to stand against each other in 60 seats across England and Wales including Cheltenham Richmond Park and Brighton Pavillion Molly Scott cater is the Green Party m.e.p. For the Southwest politics is about 2 things it's about no. And it's about momentum we hope that unite to remain alliance will build momentum for remain candidates so the half of the public will more who want to stay in the European Union recognize that they should get behind the Unite to remain candidates so that they have a large number of strong voices in the next parliament trying to stop threats it that's what will keep us in the European Union that's what will break the law Westminster Ok so I've got the 1st question what is the potential impact on this deal. Dhoni Brahma is with us right now is 21 study in politics at Liverpool University Funny how you. 20 or you're 20 while some research is going to just feel the rush of you afterwards when you 21 I'm 21. This is not long do you come here like to a Nazi in today's society lives now that. Are you dreading being 21 hand why I know everyone else. Is Why I'm 2 years away from 50 so 41 is saying 20 one's liberation Heigho. I am makes me a child to me. You are also someone who's eligible to vote. And I take it will be voting Yeah of course of course it would be we'd win if you see what we're university if you go back a genuine right now but I just love you and I want to watch I just think. Ok so what's your question then so my question is is that while I've always been a Labor voter and I've always supported their policies however in the midst of this general election coming up and of Bragg's as well I have been electorally swayed to vote for the Lib Dems now I want to vote for the Lib Dems now and I can say that some people because of Bragg say and I want to know whether. What impacts could I make and other people make that also deciding to do this type of tactical voting in this election. I thought I mean I thought it's quite interesting that. Now non-labor m.p. Was on b.b.c. Breakfast this morning talking about how he was going to encourage people to not vote Labor in fact I am pretty young and vote for because servitude which is while I mean that's a volte face if ever I've seen one but it it showed that things just aren't what they used to pay are they and those kind of tradition or tribal allegiances to political parties are not there let's speak to them before we get that question answered and Dr Felicity Matthews is here to provide some answers for such going of quandaries that people find themselves in and what's in the B.B.C.'s political correspondent joins us here and good afternoon good afternoon So tell us about this package between these 3 parties Lib Dems plied Comrie and the Greens Yeah this is basically an agreement in 60 seats not to stand against each other and try to basically get people to get behind the remain votes amongst some of the smaller parties but they would say isn't quite a parked such because they would see electoral parts of where parties are committing to to work together and across the board in many seats actually they'll be still competing against each other simply standing there in some seats where lifting another party has a better chance with the remain standard flying if you like in order to in order to perhaps prevent the conservatives getting reelected and obviously pursuing a bracelet by the 31st of January though really what is interesting is that B.B.C.'s analysis and research team have been bubbling away in some of these figures and they're saying that none of the seats in which this if you like arrangement or parked or mini pact is taking place the result would have been different into. 2017 if you'd added up all the 3 parties votes together another words the Liberal Democrats the cleans and played canary in those seats that is all we may well have been the same but what you've seen I just give you a couple examples actually is that for example in this is we are at played sound for example in gov show there's a 9000 conservative majority in 2017 and had all the parties 3 parties we talked about got behind one particular party it is likely that that rate sorry that majority would be just about $6800.00 what they would then hope would be the case this would start on lot or squeeze the Labor vote and labor are not part of this pact and they would say Oh my goodness that never every main party is within shouting distance of you to remain voter who also happens to Professor the Labor Party perhaps you might defect and get them over the line libellous and not part of this arrangement whatsoever but of course been very many individual a brain pieces are approved remain and there are a range of websites suggesting that people could types come to their own tactical reasons or even where labor competing against the Liberal Democrats by Korea and the Greens own one seat perhaps people would then make a decision about who the best green counted it would be conversely of course people making decisions the other way as well and whether the back the breaks at party for example or the Conservative Party and whether that would if they want to leave by the 31st of January without risk allowing a remainer into that seat instead and as you say I think a lot of this means that if people are not always doing this appearing many other issues 1st but they are strongly putting Bragg's at 1st with the deciding how to vote that I think that will encourage them to vote tactic label a whole range of different ways of doing it and you don't need formal parts of arrangements in order to cast a tactical vote it's quite interesting because I was looking at b.b.c. . News website earlier on today in and it was saying that different parties members have. Priorities hence why the Labor Party of go big on the n.h.s. Because that actually seems to trump bricks it wears conservative members and obviously the. Clues little bit. Of fairly well it shouldn't to this being their primary yeah that you know you have the right the clue is the title. Certainly is the hope of labor in leaving areas where people voted to leave the European Union 2016 Their hope is there was often off off another referendum which some people thought might be toxic but their hope is that people precisely will prioritize these other issues that the campaigning on specifically the n.h.s. Are making a big deal of what they are regarded as a potential threat in future trade talks to open up their shares to foreign competition all the rest of it they're going quite strongly and not at another seats they think that perhaps the green agenda might be more interesting and they're going very strongly on that in other areas I think don't we actually have been told us anecdotally when this is from always the political calling sites but I don't think this is entirely spin because quite frankly you know some people including Liberal M.P.'s fully expecting to lose their seats and they're finding so far but it's still early days than some of those areas are indeed some people are willing no longer to vote at all because the Labor Party is committing to a 2nd referendum some are defecting to breaks it possible to fainting very few defectors to the Conservative Party which would suggest putting these other issues front and center in those specific areas may be working but that's quite different you know it is that is tricky isn't carrying a different campaigns effective a different part of the country but you know it might not work in some of the remaining areas where a lot of people feel perhaps that the labor and Jeremy called but in particular hasn't been approved you approve it enough which leaves them more vulnerable to a liberal Democrat challenge or potentially Also you may. Remain supporting Labor m.p. This is happening in Canterbury for example challenge by remain supporting liberal Democrat and have very very marginal seats which might then end up with a conservative break as opposed to getting elected so there's a lot of local tensions and I think we're fair to probably see you know something like $650.00 different contests this time rather than dealing there's always that the year over that would swing all matter how is a very general to present year that means 50 seats I think it's going to be a really complex picture the stable lots of people making individual decisions or issues but it's their most including breaks it. Just to go a little bit off piste for a moment what is the latest on as far as you understand the release of the report into Russian meddling in u.k. Politics because it's something a lot of people have been tweeting me and some people being quite concerned is that it's perhaps not being talked about enough in this election. Because because of course the Prime Minister's refused hasn't he to release it before the election yet no more Newsnight as I think that's still the government's position as far as I'm aware of really Intelligence and Security Committee which of course particularly have completed their work and they're expecting a government response as is usually the case when the state reports that response has not been forthcoming unless they get that response they're not going to publish all we have to publish in redacted form in any case but it looks as if that is not going to come out before December 12th and certainly when the Government Minister Michael Gove was asked about this the other day he gave no guarantees that the situation would change despite pressure from the opposition parties in particular to have it published so in talking back to 2 votes you know one party is going slightly off piece but I know a number of people have been concerned about this report into Russian political interference. In terms of what the conservatives are focusing on then and where they feel they can get wins that is essentially it's lay youth it's labor leaders they are places in the Midlands potentially in the Northeast places as well because it's quite ambitious places that have probably never voted conservative certainly not in a generation or 2 Well that's right I think the areas which are leaving areas which we're trying to get crossed a fairly strong message that if people want breaks it doesn't then they have to vote Conservative not be tempted by Nigel freshers breaks at a party where he still says he's going to give them until you know the middle of this month to decide. Whether they'll form some kind of part some kind of leave alliance as he calls it but it has been consistently rebuffed by doning street and indeed in interviews on the b.b.c. By Boris Johnson himself so it looks unlikely they're going to reach that conclusion privately some breaks at party sources are saying to me that you know they have to be very careful that they don't effectively stop themselves from achieving what they want to achieve in other words it is suspect of a lack of a park that makes a soft pedal in some areas or go very hard in others so for example it may go very hard in labor leave areas which as you were pointing out maybe a huge reluctance to vote conservative but people might be more tempted to vote for the breaks at party instead as a kind of one off that will necessarily help conservative prospects and those in those seats and indeed they may be facing more of a challenge actually in the south of England from liberal Democrats for example who may be attracting former Conservative remain as that's a minority of conservative voters but still quests to ensure minority in some parts of the country well we're kind of One Nation conservatism thank you very much indeed could speak to you as always there that's in what's the B.B.C.'s political correspondent let's get back to the conversation we're having before we spoke to in Dr for this to Matthews is with us senior lecturer in politics at University of Sheffield Joe Twyman is co-founder and director of the polling company Delta poll and Dooney is also with us and Dooney you have you convinced yourself that you are switching sides now that is that is a done deal it's a done deal Wow Ok what what one thing could Labor do to get you back onside what would they need to do I mean I'm saying it's a done deal so maybe nothing but. Calling me supply himself all it as a pro I mean or and of course will be no well I think he's definitely not at all. But what about a 2nd referendum which hasn't the Labor Party and Felicity perhaps you can bet me up on this has pledged to a referendum off the or are once a deal has been decided well the manifesto has not yet been published right have promised a 2nd referendum and senior members of the Labor Party have said that if there is a 2nd referendum they will campaign to remain but that's not being a message echoed by leadership right I say Ok and that would be confusing whereas I guess if you are as you are clearly a pro remain then the clearest message you're getting is from the Lib Dems in that respect right that's absolutely the case so a lot of labor remain voters are going have to think what matters more labor or remain and if we won't remain might we have to vote the Lib Dems who guarantee in if numbers allow they'll stop Bragg's it not that big messy election Ok I mean Joe is with us hi Joe Good afternoon so polling companies Well you guys your reputations go a bit of a hammering didn't it Oh it's very very kind. Of nicer to be on your show No No not personally yours but it did because let's be let's be honest we all have to accept our faults I have to every day for 3 I was on this radio show I mean I didn't get it right referendum wise or 2017 election well in 201710 days out from the election I was responsible for the poll that made the front page of The Times that said that a hung parliament was on the cards and it's fair to say that was not met with universal acclaim at the time through the Nor do all polls performed as well as as well as that one it's not the case the consistently polls are wrong and indeed in 2017 on the show the vote for the conservatives most of the polls were pretty accurate even the ones that were less accurate on labor and so there's always a mix there's always a mix view in the industry we tend not to see things in terms of right or wrong but in terms of in terms of whether we're telling the right story and in the improvements that we can make. And what were those improvements made well I know you'll be approaching this differently adults a poll we concentrate very much on on the idea of emotional response the idea that something can connect with your head but not necessarily with your heart and it's the connection with your heart that may motivate you more and so we look at we look at measuring that sort of thing the degree to which different policies different messages different politicians in fact resonate with people emotionally I think is a really interesting thing to look at so the wording of the question chan

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