1st of the same group have taken their own lives and in election news a major new poll a major in terms of the sample size gives the Conservatives a substantial lead. And the polling organization you Gov are making much of the fact that they got quite close to calling the result of the 2017 general election and they have a new sampling approach which they say gives some remarkable confidence and it takes in. A large number of people so it gives the Conservatives a Commons majority of a road and 68 and a national lead of 11 percentage points over Labor the big deal is more than 100000 people were questioned for this poll whereas in other polls a sample size a much smaller of course it is just an opinion poll a much smaller survey carried out by Congress puts the conservatives still ahead of Labor Orly by 7 percentage points but still that is 7 percentage points Here's our political correspondent Nick hardly You Gov interview just over 100000 people over the past week about their voting intentions before then using a model to predict individual constituency results the poll indicates the conservatives are on course for a comfortable majority picking up just over 40 seats with Labor losing about 50 giving the Tories a majority of $68.00 it also suggests the s.n.p. Will pick up further seats in Scotland who the Lib Dems will add just one to their tally from 2017 it is only one poll which should be treated with caution not least because of a wide margin of error and the fact there are 2 weeks left in the campaign other surveys however have also pointed to a 2 elite although in some cases the gap with Labor seems to have been closing this morning a much smaller comb race poll for The Daily Telegraph pitched a conservative 7 points ahead of Labor compared with 11 in the youth of poll. Well in a couple minutes we're going to hear from the b.b.c. News head of statistics Robert cuffed 1st of all Chris Carter's political research manager at you Gov and I asked Chris what the data appears to reveal about the current state of voting intentions. Well what we can say on current polling is that the most likely outcome is a Conservative majority of $68.00 there's always a margin of error in the margin of error on this is a very small conservative majority of under 10 a very large majority of of over 100 but the most likely outcome on current polling is a majority of 68 The other thing to bear in mind is that we are still nearly 2 weeks out over 2 weeks out from the General Election Day And of course while this can capture where things currently are we don't know how things might move over the period of time and of course none of us are very good as statisticians you know unless we are statisticians but what is your sample size for this because some of your samples are are fairly big some of your samples are not so big are they so in the traditional pall of this they you're speaking to somewhere between the files into 2000 people now this is a much more complicated what we call an r.p. Model so we're not just doing a show at Chile We've interviewed over 100000 people in the past 7 days now that allows us not just to look at the national vote but look at how all of the different types and groups of people in the country are fighting with us yeah young people with degrees or people who didn't go to university and live in a particular part of the country and the allows us to come up with the see estimates in fact allows us to come up with an estimate for all of the $632.00 great British States. And you know we all get frankly beat the over the head by our bosses who say don't give a new way to any one poll but I'm looking back at a list of all the polls that's been held in the vanguard I can see anybody that sampled 100000 people I mean you you sampled 11000 people back in the the whatever it was the 20 something of November but is that right I mean there's nobody else doing on this scale you know this is I mean as far as I'm aware this one of the biggest pieces of research that my company has ever conducted and you know probably one of the biggest pieces of research has ever been conducted interesting intention in the u.k. Now the ways the reason we're doing this is because we think it's really important in this election and in fact any election and in fact if you take the issue of breaks it for example an issue which is going to affect generations to come in all of these things is really important to listen to to represent and to reflect what the British public I think what we've done here is conduct as one of our best biggest pieces of research ever so that we can so that we can we can try not to really do that so here with what we've said that you've recorded Arkansas of the majority of potential Conservative majority of $68.00 what is our represent in percentage of the vote share so we currently got 11 point conservative late so that's the conservatives pretty much on the same vij they won in 2017 in the late forty's 43 percent labor down quite considerably on the $27000.00 votes that are currently sitting at 32 percent the Liberal Democrats have increased nearly doubled it a currently on 14 percent However despite that increase in by They've still only managed to gain a single seat. Where the Liberal Democrats showing higher earlier in the month I mean look at some polls here that have them up it has won b.m.g. Had them up 18 percent try to 1st of November you know one of the big interesting things about this campaign is just how difficult the Liberal Democrats have found it they started this campaign on a round of of the vote among 3 main voters just now didn't drop down to a quarter as Labor has started to squeeze bites back and unfortunately for them we don't have any good news for them tonight Eva is showing even though they're still up on the 2017 down to start a campaign still up on the 2017 and not don't seem at this stage at least to be doing a good job of trance translating those extra votes into extra seats. Chris Curtis of you gov You Gov also showing substantial losses for labor and Scotland against by the s.n.p. Well I've been talking to b.b.c. News head of statistics Robert cuff and I asked him about the poll size Well the size is impressive but the issue of polling a vote it's not just about how many people you get it's who you guess and that's been part of the problem we've seen in the 2015 and 17 elections so just because they've got a lot of people doesn't mean that it's all over this is basically election done and dusted and we can go home. Yeah and I'm looking at this wonderful thing the margin of error and the margin of error seems to get bigger and bigger with these polls doesn't it it's pretty big Yeah so I think what the British polling Council say is that for. For national vote share it could be. Up or down by about 4 points a man actually has quite a big an impact because at the moment the conservatives have about an 11 point lead and most of the experts will tell you that a 10 point lead will it will likely translates into a majority but of course about Santa 6 point if it's down by by 4 then you get a very very different picture so that kind of level of uncertainty in the polls this is what leads makes it very difficult to. To be completely to rely completely on any single result I think you need to be a little bit wary and if ever I look at their you know we've said that that you Gov predict 43 percent of the vote for the conservatives which would mean $359.00 seats for data right in the middle of the sample but the margin of error goes from $328.00 seats to $385.00 so and an actual physical terms you know M.P.'s getting jobs that's a big difference Teff and it's the view of Louis looking at it quite nervously and so as you say it could be as low as 3 to 8 which is a very it's a kind of a squeaky bum kind of majority rather than a comfortable one and if the pole shift a little bit between now and December as they almost certainly will and then the picture could change quite substantially I mean I think we've started to see if you look at the patterns of the other of the other opinion polls we've been seeing recently it's starting to look a little bit like conservatives might be towing I mean there's only so many votes that they can take away from the bag the party now who are kind of falling way down below 3 percent whereas Labor are continuing to put on maybe 0.2 weeks that's how things are looking at the moment so it does look a little bit like the polls might continue to shift between an now and Election Day But of course it's very volatile so you know it. Beano just like you well just like your stocks and shares they could go a border. Yes but we're still encouraged to invest though by EMEA However both you know the actual business of polling are we less Are we less likely to tell a pollster the truth you know I we all think the porn stars these days. I think there is some evidence of new kinds of of things that are defined I think we're all familiar with that and the old ninety's trope of the shy Tory I think some of the posters have started to notice that people that people are less likely to report having voted for Labor in 2017 and and that does make it a little bit more complicated because you want your polling samples to be as representative of the top of the population as possible and of people won't tell you who they voted for last time it's hard to make sure that you get enough Labor voters interior sample or you get the right amount. So it is it is tricky and take to get the polls and that's why another reason why and say that you don't want to focus too much on any one poll because each of the pollsters ask a slightly different question to a slightly different panel of people and they try and problem into making a decision because of course some people say oh I'm not going to vote or I'm not sure I'm going to vote for and they all try and get around on different ways and so we you know when we do our poll tracker we tend to try and take an average across all the pollsters that we're not saying to anyone you know any one polling company of the the magic truth an absolute fact here and of course this this projection does come from from you go from one pollster take a light in the polls elect the exit polls that some people anyway feel either uncomfortable about what or what does the b.b.c. Do with exit polls these days b.b.c. And i.t.v. An excursion all together on one exit poll and the results of that are reported on election night after the polls close at 10 o'clock and so that's when you can see that 1st call of how the election might run and it updated throughout the night as the real results start to come in. Robert cuff B.B.C.'s head of statistics. Well as we've been hearing in the News President Trump has now signed a bill into law supporting pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong the move has angered China which has seen it coming and is accusing Washington of meddling they beat joins us in Hong Kong hello Nic. I wrote gets on a good good morning to you I wonder if there are 2 different reactions here on potentially one is the political reaction has there been any time yet for the protesters or other pro-democracy activists to comment on what the United States is probably doing. Yeah I mean they are absolutely static this morning down there talking about this being a thanksgiving present from President Trump something which in Dorsey's they can buy that fight for democracy and they're saying this is something which reflects wider international support for what's been happening here in Hong Kong and so yes there absolutely is static and as you suggested said really stark contrast with what China's been saying a little bit gloomy. Yet they said we are I mean here yes I think is probably the word to describe the Chinese reaction today the phone and foreign ministry saying that this bill represents sinister intentions by the Americans that it's an interference it's something which is against international law and the Chinese have said that they're responding in their own way to this. Of course the United States and China have been talking about trade and the been talking about settling some of their differences and has been a lot of global optimism about what's the take on it. Yeah absolutely I mean that is the that is the broader context and I tell you when I answer that Rod I'll just tell you what I can see at the moment is. We literally just managed to get on to university campus this is the place where. One point there were thousands and pro-democracy demonstrators. Nearly all of them we think of going away the police have just moved on and I don't think it would do justice to what is an absolute I mean it looks like a bomb site is like a student party from how the the morning after the night before there is it's completely trashed you've got medical equipment you've got bottles but not full of booze they're full of petrol and there's a whole stash I can see of Molotov cocktails unused petrol bombs and so the fire brigade and some police officers are trying to clear out this mess I mean talking of petrol bombs the Chinese think at a critical time in the trade border goshi Asians trying to resolve it they see President Trump as having you know a Molotov cocktail of his own which is only could inflame the situation even although of course these bills went through the Senate and they were the work of a whole lot of us Democratic representatives but is the is the Asian market for a foreign exchange market there Sara Lee but the stock market reacting Yeah. Well I mean I do that we've seen anything significant to this I think it's important you say it has called out brought broader political support it was bi partisan support in both in both the upper and lower house in the states and so President Trump was really really reflecting through signing base quite a broad support for the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement Yeah I think any sort of economic impact going forward will be I guess in the years to come because what they can do now through passing this legislation is have this yearly assessment where the Americans look at Hong Kong and they think Ok To what extent is China infringing on these essential civil liberties that the rights that the home. Enjoys under the basic law or agreement basically on the handover from the British back in 1970 and potentially there could be sanctions you know put all on the Chinese if they think that Beijing's interfering with life here in Hong Kong. Well it is a wonder that we're able to talk to you they are the Hong Kong Polytechnic of all places and thank you so much Nick for telling us what it's like. It's too she wrote. Let's go to Korea now because South Korea is in mourning for the k. Pop star goo Howrah she was 28 she's a former member of the girl group Cowra and she was found dead in our home and so on Sunday evening her death comes just a few weeks after the death of our close friend and fellow k. Pop star slowly turned the spotlight on the darkest corners of the k. Pop industry and the online abuse directed that celebrities by file our reporter in Seoul is Julian Hello Julie. Hi Ron well. It's such a sad story what what was I mean words importance of goo to the whole Capel think so speaking of k. Pop so she de viewed as a young girl in 28 so that's the time before that k. Pop what had become this global phenomenon as we know now with the b.t.s. And black pink so before then k. Pub was a very much a domestic thing and starting from minute to thousands there was a wave of new k. Pop brands from a large entertainment companies like a same j y p. Which. Was a member of was one of the tier of this wave of u.k. Pop and this was really the time that k. Pop went beyond South Korea and was really faint became famous in Japan and other Asian countries so she the car is known for songs like rock you Mr honey jump in and they really defined the air out there one of the groups that defined the era of this 1st k. Pop going global for the 1st time and how do we know that Gerhard I was having a hard time before she died so she has been a beloved star you know she was known as a hardworking and a down to earth singer but really she became publicly known. For her personal life last year when her career was overshadowed by this incident off the stage though in September last year her former boyfriend initially claimed that he was assaulted by her. As they were going through a break up but then later who accused him of threatening to release a very private video that was shot between him. And her and the something that was very notable at the time was instead of denying the scandal as a whole who actively fought against her abusive ex-boyfriend in the public light and obviously this incident just took over the whole tabloid newspaper and the major news outlets as well. And for female k. Pop stars admitting the very existence of private videos between her intimate partner could be critical of their career. It was a shallow set up by the way that k. Pop stars are treated the way that I have to some very artificial sort of standard So 1st of all I think we have to understand this whole industry and how they train their trainees before they become they debut as a k. Pop stars So Kate I was a very highly competitive and. Aspiring artist as young as their early teens trained for ears and the industry is also known to have strict rules especially against female stars to name a few there are dating then strict diets and of course unfair contracts so there is all this behind her and she did stood up against her abusive ex-boyfriend and admitted that such a video existed so this was a very big almost like a landmark case at the time for that really shook the cape up industry. And can you just tell us about solely you know and hardest change things did did somebody take her own life. Yes So the whole he was another figure he was also a member of he was a member of f x which was a group formed by s.m. Entertainment which is one of the top tier entertainment groups here in South Korea and she was unlike other Ok pop industry artists she spoke up about a lot of issues including feminism which is a very rare thing to see and of course that had backlash is right people criticize her for just simply being herself and admitting that she is a feminist. And that really cost her a lot of stress and she actively talked about being abused online and people really writing hate comments without the any kind of basis of who she really is so that really shook the industry once again less than 2 months ago and so quote us deaths coming after. That is really has taken South Korea and in fact quite an Sulley are known to be really close friends to each other. So there is a lot of self-examination as I mean our people say we've got to do better you know by these young women. Yeah so a lot of women are angry in South Korea right now and I think because there was a very evident incident that was a turning point for you know quote I was unlike Sally she wasn't as the local on line about her personal beliefs you know she in some ways abide to the Cape rule so to speak. And read out whether she wanted or not her private life was in the limelight and that really pushed you know people believe that really pushed her. Deep in depression and actually in May there was an incident where she quote I was found unconscious and was sent to hospital so even the police has not yet commented on the cause of that but they have concluded the investigation and decided to not to carry autopsy upon the Quartus they must request so. We can guess that yeah we can indeed Julie thank you so much. Julian joined us from Charlotte just before half past 4. On digital b.b.c. Sound the. This is b.b.c. Radio 5 Live there was the news for Sarah Green China has responded angrily to a law signed off by Donald Trump that support