Youre watching beyond 100 days. Crowds of iranians are shouting death to america, the us president is threatening to bomb cultural sites. The europeans are desperately urging restraint and the saudis have sent an envoy to the white house because theyre very nervous. No one knows how this ends but the killing of Qassem Soleimani has already triggered reactions that have pushed the region into high alert. The iranian leadership needs to understand that attacking americans is not cost free. Thats the kind of hawkish language that is making americas allies anxious there is little support in london for conflict with iran. The key message that we brought to all of our european american
partners, but critically, also to the iranians to the iraqis and all of those affected in the region is the importance to defuse the tensions, to de escalate. Also on the programme. The most prolific rapist in british history Reynhard Sinaga drugged his unsuspecting male victims and then filmed his assaults. The judge says hes a monster who should never be released. Australia gets brief respite from searing tempa ratu res which are stoking the bushfires, we will hear from the volunteer firemen who are on the front lines. Hello and welcome im katty kay in washington and Christian Fraser is in london. There is a lot we dont know today about how the conflict with iran will end. We dont know how or when tehran will retaliate. We dont know what intelligence the white house had to suggest an imminent attack was planned against us interests. And even though President Trump has tweeted that iran will never have Nuclear Weapons we dont know whether iran now plans to start producing enriched uranium. What we do know is that the fight against so called Islamic State in iraq is for now suspended. We know the Iraqi Parliament has voted to expel us forces from the country though that is not binding on the government. We know an iranian general has warned that british troops in the middle east are also now targets. The assasination of Qassem Soleimani was certainly a blow to irans strategic capability but the bigger question is whether killing him has made the region more or less safe. Our middle east editor jeremy bowen reports. Tehrans broad avenues were jammed with mourners, estimated in millions. The assassination of general Qasem Soleimani has inflicted a real shock on iranian hardliners. Not all iranians are as distressed as this. Soleimani was a dominant force in a regime which shot dead hundreds
of protesters on irans streets at the end of 2019. The people who turned out, presumably, approved that he spent vast amounts of the islamic republics money building up alliances and militias in lebanon, yemen, iraq and syria. Many iranians didnt approve, as us sanctions bit into their lives. But irans elite is badly rattled. Ayatollah khamenei, irans supreme leader, wept as he prayed for his right hand man. A general whod become the keystone of his regimes security. Qasem soleimanis daughter delivered a fiery operation, demanding justice for the father she called a martyr. Translation the families of american soldiers in the middle east will have witnessed americas cruel wars in syria, iraq, lebanon, yemen and palestine and will spend their days waiting for the death of their children. Here in baghdad, soleimani, in death, stood like a brother with the Iraqi Militia leader killed with him by the americans. Behind them, and iranian missiles speed to unknown targets. This was organised by the so called Popular Mobilisation forces, militias mostly trained and armed by soleimanis operation, now integrated into the iraqi army. President trumps image was there, two and theyve tried to match his threats. This pro iranian mp said it would be good if trump sent more troops, so they could send more coffins back to america. There is a lot of quiet anger here and a strong desire to get even, to get revenge. The question is what these iraqis and, also, of course, the leaders of iran do next. Two countries names are mentioned most here and their flags are down there on the street. The United States and israel. The desire for revenge was everywhere, in phases, chants and conversation. It will not dissipate easily. Jeremy bowen, bbc news, baghdad. Joining us now from new york is hagar chemali, former us spokesperson at the united nations, now ceo
of greenwich media strategies. At the united nations, now ceo thank at the united nations, now ceo you so much forjo the thank you so much forjoining us. The president in response to President Trump just tweeted never threatened the irani nation. In the moment it is a war of words, what is your best assessment from your understanding of intelligent sources about what the actual retaliation might be from iran. There are three kinds of retaliation that i would expect the iranians to ta ke that i would expect the iranians to take some of the first would be anywhere where you have both us and Iranian Military presence, so in countries like iraq, lebanon, certainly where you have us presence in the gulf, like to wait. Thats where i would expect the iranians to target first, so thats one kind, the second kind i would suspect is the second kind i would suspect is the kidnapping of americans in the region. Thats why the us embassy issued a threat, warning, excuse me, in baghdad for americans to leave. Ifi in baghdad for americans to leave. If i were an american in the region, would he that threat very carefully, and the third would be a cyber attack, thats the only type of attack, thats the only type of attack that could hit the us
homeland, and those can be very serious. The iranians attempted a cyber attack against our banks in 2014, and they may try to do Something Like that, or against our infrastructure, again, so we have to be extremely vigilant. So the expectation is that they will hit or try to hit somehow, there is a counter argument though, isnt there . That actually, losing Qassem Soleimani is such a blow to irans tactical and Strategic Planning capability that may be, they wont be able to respond, and america, President Trump, has taken a gamble that he can get away with this by threatening extreme force, and that he may get away with it. Do you think that gamble could pay off for the white house . Well, im not so sure about the iranians not being able to pursue an attack with out Qassem Soleimani there, and i want to take a step back, Qassem Soleimani, i have followed him in my owii career soleimani, i have followed him in my own career in the Us Government working in Counter Terrorism since 2006, this was an extremely bad
individual. He was behind every major and minor iranian terror plot, and most critically, he was by behind arounds strategy to arm and fund proxies across the region, and thats why the modern middle east looks the way it does in large part due to this individual. Thats what i see undermined in iran is that type of strategic effort, i think that will suffer a blow. When it comes to retaliation, however, they still have the ability to have their proxies issued some kind of attack, but i think what is important though is that the rhetoric that you are seen coming from President Trump and secretary of state pompeo is meant to send this message to the iranians and certainly the assassination of Qassem Soleimani is meant to convey this threat of, you know, we are not afraid to use all the tools in our tool box. President term, in particular, is quite unpredictable, and so take that into your calculation, iran, when you are thinking of how you are going to respond. Make sure its not so big, we are not afraid to respond with disproportionate force. I sawPresident Trump use that word, disproportionate, so think thats the trying to do. I know the ministration is aware that because of friends has spoken with her, but ido of friends has spoken with her, but i do think iran inevitably will have to include this as they decide how they are going to retaliate at a time and place of their choosing. Can we talk about the predicament for the iraqis as well, we have had the boat and the Iraqi Parliament yesterday. In the summer, we have the iraqi president on this programme, around the time that the concerns were growing about iran cosmic influence in iraq, and i asked them how we would react if the americans aspect out to pick a side, have a listen to his response. We next the americans and our neighbours are all acknowledging to us neighbours are all acknowledging to us the imperative of keeping iraq away from this conflict. We assess from our own point of view with the priorities of a wreck cosmic National Security americans and our neighbours are all acknowledging to us the imperative of keeping iraq away from this conflict. We assess, from our own point of view, the the priority is iraqs National Security,
is iraqs stability, iraqs security. We have been embroiled in too many wars over the past four decades. We do not want to be embroiled in yet another conflict. The success in iraq is real, the situation is improving, but the success is a very precarious and very fragile, and we do not want to go back to where we were. We saw how fragile it is in iraq yesterday, because the sheer voted in the department, but the kurds abstain. Those are the factional splits which are still present. Rates, iraq is an extremely, the situation on the ground and the makeup of its population is extremely nuanced and extremely complicated, which is why i have an described, by the way, to the media here in the United States saying that the majority have been mourning the death of Qassem Soleimani, and while i do think there are large group of people who are, there are many groups in iraq and elsewhere that are relieved that his death. I myself having followed his career of ecstatic to see him gone. I dont know it was the right move to kill him, but im happy to see him gone,
that being said, with the situation that being said, with the situation that you have in iraq, its been a tug of war between the United States and iran over influence in iraq in particular, and iraq as a tough one, because the United States has obviously been there since 2003, since that time, Qassem Soleimani made it one of his main goals to get the United States out of iraq. What we you have seen with the latest government and certainly the Prime Minister, the newest Prime Minister isa minister, the newest Prime Minister is a bit ofa minister, the newest Prime Minister is a bit of a leaning toward tehran, and its something that we have heard the United States repeatedly tell the iraqis and warn them that, you know, dont get close to iran, dont travel too much to tehran, this is going to pose a problem for you. What you see happening in the parliament as was mentioned earlier, the legislation that was passed was nonbinding, which means that the United States does not require leaving at the moment, there are questions as to whether or not even that they passed a binding resolution given that the government is acting whether or not they would even be able to authorise that, but that being said, states right now
with the threat of sanctions against iraq is trying to say to say to iraq, be very careful, you dont wa nt iraq, be very careful, you dont want to be on team iran. Ella and i thank you very much indeed for that, appeared on all five sunday political shows to make the case that this was a risk worth taking. Americans wouldve said that we werent taking the right steps, is the threat that imminent . The attacks he was putting together so the attacks he was putting together so imminent probably negligent, had we not taken this action. The American People wouldve said that we werent doing the right thing to protect and defend americans live. President trump has been crystal clear. Is it that him . Is the threat, is what the attacks he was putting together so imminent and so big it wouldve been seen as that kind of negligence . He made the right decision. So what do we know appeared on all five sunday
ben cardin is a democratic senator on the Foreign Relations committee he joins us from capitol hill. Thank you very much forjoining the programme, have you seen intelligence that suggests to you that there was an imminent attack planned under the offices of Qassem Soleimani . Well, its good to be with you, no, we have not gotten that information, there will bea gotten that information, there will be a briefing on wednesday, and we will see what information has been made available, but we have not seen the imminent threat that the president was talking about, which is the only authorisation he could use to use force, because congress has the authority or force, and we have not given the administration the right to use force against iran. So, there would have to be an imminent threat against america to use force against iran. Just to be clear, Qassem Soleimani has been a threat to american interests in the region for decades now, so would there, in your mind, something that would have to have changed substantially in the intelligence in the last few weeks to have justified this . Under our constitution and under the this . Under our constitution and underthe war this . Under our constitution and under the war powers act, if the president wanted to carry out this
attack without there being an imminent threat, he would have it work with congress in order to get the appropriate authorisation from he chose not to do that. So congress has not been engaged in this process. In america, we dont give our president the unauthorised use the blanket use of military without the authority of congress. So, there is no authorisation. So unless there was an imminent threat, the president illegally did not have the president illegally did not have the authority to carry out this attack. I wouldve thought the first step of any strategy is to stop terrorist proxies from attacking american troops. In the interests of analysing the region, he was the man orchestrating it all, surely, for many people, thats not so controversial. Know, and i agree with that. Clearly, we will go against terrorists wherever we find terrorists, but you have to engage the Article One Branch of government, the legislative branch of government. You need to have that type of exchange. We need to
understand the game plan, what comes next. The consequences of this action, we know, were provocative. It is likely to accelerate a conflict between the United States and iran. Thats something that we need to evaluate needed to be evaluated in a democratic process. You make nancy pelosi says the house will vote on a war powers resolution this week, what will that do . The resolution that will be brought up in the house, i hope also in the senate, would say that absent authorisation from congress. The president doesnt have authority to use military against iran. Ok, senator, thank you so much for joining us there from capitol hill. We will get that briefing of the full senate on wednesday from the white house. This is the question i think that the senator was getting to
there, the there have been plenty of threats made already by the iranians and Foreign Forces in the region are particularly vulnerable. The uk currently has around 400 troops in iraq concentrated in baghdad, taji, and erbil. The us has more 5,200 personnel in bases across the country. Thats in addition to American Forces based across the wider middle east. The 800 us troops still in syria could be vulnerable to attacks from local pro iranian militias. There are also 3,000 us military personnel in jordan. And some 30 to 40,000 americans are stationed at military bases in kuwait, bahrain, qatar, and saudi arabia where, of course, oil and gas facilities are also vulnerable as are the straits of hormuz. And finally there are 14,000 us troops in afghanistan, which shares a porous 600 mile border with iran. Legal issue, the moral issue, but there is really most importantly, there is really most importantly, the strategic issue about had had this opportunity in the past, the pentagon had offered that as. 0n the. 0n the other to enact such a strategic respond pay the very poorest 600 mile border with iran. Joining us now its
retired marine corps officer. He is a Senior Research fellow at the research foundation. Thank you for coming in tojoin as research foundation. Thank you for coming in to join as kernel. Research foundation. Thank you for coming in tojoin as kernel. There american and British Forces who are in the region, how vulnerable early because of this attacki do not know that there are any more vulnerable than they were several days ago. There are any pasture where they always have to be aware of threats. Except that they have actually pulled back into first protection. What they now have to do is protect themselves. My wife and i we re is protect themselves. My wife and i were visiting a Us Military Base just a couple of days ago and even here in the state of virginia, next to washington, dc and checking i