we know the country has extreme regional imbalances, but what accounts for excess mortality among prime age northern adults? more and more people coming into the hospital with alcohol—related liver injury and illness and actually, you know, in more and more desperate states. they have probably got nothing to live for and alcohol is an easy way out, an anaesthetic. we'll ask if this is a health issue or a national failure to deal with inequality between north and south. president trump ramps up the rhetoric on north korea. they will be met with fire and few are, like the world has never seen. is he making us safer or not? we're in amiens, in northern france, birthplace of president macron, to hear how he finds out whether faith in his leadership is failing. after an extroadinary campaign, which entirely new political scheme was deployed, president macron must now deliver. and there are already voices in france who doubt his ability to do so. and, a property dispute dating back to the partition of india and pakistan, 70 years ago. the indian government is laying claim to my property saying it's enemy property. hello. we know there's a north—south divide in england. that's literally been noted since the 11th century. we also know your chance of dying prematurely is significantly higher in the north than the south. but a paper published today raises some alarming questions about mortality, and its connection to economic and social imbalances. it looks at data on five decades of death, about 25 million people in the midlands and north, versus about 25 million people in london, the south and east. the good news is that premature deaths have plummeted north and south over the years. we are better off. but the bad news is that over the years there's a persistently higher premature death rate in the north, despite efforts to narrow the gap. and for those between mid—20s and mid—40s, prime age adults, something strange has happened. since the mid—90s, the north south gap has jumped. lots of data to digest, helen thomas has been on stoke to see what's going on. industrial decline, ailing city centres, a dwindling population. and, in contrast, a region, or more specifically a capital, ever greedier in taking the nation's jobs and wealth. it wouldn't be a piece of tv about the north—south divide without images of the north which suggest industrial decay. and chopping england into two contrast enhanced is a little bit and chopping england into two contrasting halves is a little bit cliched, and it is certainly crude. but this report highlights a particular issue. for decades, you have been more likely to die young if you live in the north. what is worrying is over the past 15 years or so, the grim outlook has got worse, specifically if you are a young adult. there is some good news. the university of manchester looked at the mortality rate, or deaths per 10,000 people under 75. it has fallen. but this graph shows the stubborn gap between the north and south of england. if you look at specific age groups, you see a surprising trend. among 25 to 34—year—olds, the gap had virtually closed 20 years ago. since then it has grown considerably. the 35 to 44 age group is similar, but the gap is now even bigger. the question, is why? we didn't want to draw too much attention to the dealing with the intermediate factors, rather than the root causes, which are social and economic. but commonly, any group rise of death rate of people in that age are the diseases of despair. alcohol—related, drug—related, suicide, violent deaths. his description is to wait government investment towards the north, a positive discrimination to build the economy. other research has suggested that extra financial support isn't as important as encouraging healthier lifestyles. to invest in risks pastors alone is to ignore the underlying causes of early death. which are accessed to resources in general, have good living conditions, more control of your own life, so you can make those healthy choices. so, is it time to relaunch the northern powerhouse? efforts to rebalance the economy towards the north have largely failed, and measures specifically aimed at health have fared us badly. targets set in 1997, to narrow health inequality between deprived and affluent areas were not met by 2010. a report on wye, called progress exceptionally slow. staffordshire university's centre for health and development is an unusual partnership with two local councils. the aim a new approach of tackling health inequality. top—down investment is vital and we need more of it. however, we also need the bottom—up approach and we need to give people a voice in our community is actually to help direct that investment so it goes to the right places. we need to be looking and asking questions about quality of work and work life. this is working age cohort. what it is like to be unemployed in this day and age, impact about welfare reform, housing policies, education. alcohol—related death rates have risen since the mid—19 90s. consultant at stoke university hospital of wales seen that first—hand. we are seeing more people and the age of people is younger because people are drinking at a younger age. we are seeing more women. there is more desperation. people don't drink because they want to, they drink because it is a way out. this is a big picture study about abroad, long—standing problem and it isn't clear what might change quickly. very targeted programmes around obesity, mental health may help some people, but that risks missing the most entrenched divisions. major structural changes to the economy may be the answer, but no one knows for sure and it certainly isn't a quick fix. helen thomas reporting. sir michael marmot is the director of the ucl institute of health equity. he is also responsible for drawing up the 2010 marmot review which set out a six—point strategy for combating health inequality. good evening. let's go back to the beginning because we are used to premature death rates falling over the decades, why is that? it is good news, obviously. because we are a richer society, everything is better, nutrition is better, housing is better, living conditions are better. everything has improved. fewer accidents at work and all of that. one of the things we haven't talked about, this report tallies with some stuff you have said but that has flattened off over the last few years so it is not falling any more? yes, this is looking at premature mortality under age 70 five. it has flattened. flattened in the north and the south. it affects everybody, what is driving that? we speculated, we speculated that policies of austerity post 2010 decrease in adult social care spending, decrease in expenditure per person could play a role. we said it is urgent to investigate if it is related to it. let's get to the north, south issue. there is a long—standing gap. what is the best succinct summary of what drives this gap because it is at all ages over the decades, there has been some percentage higher premature death in the north? we have some insight into it because when we look at mortality according to where you are in the social hierarchy. the lower you are in the social hierarchy defined by education, jobs or degradation, the higher the mortality. but the disadvantage of being low is bigger in the north and the south. someone in the middle of the hierarchy has higher mortality than somebody at the top. but the access is bigger in the north and the south. if you are a poor person in the south, equally poor to someone else in the north, you will live longer in the south as that poor person in the north? you will, if you are professional. why would that be because you said deprivation is driving this? because what i identified in my review are worse in the north than they are in the south. we could look at child poverty. let's take the first one on early childhood. child poverty is worst in the north than in the south. we have talked about the importance of sure start children's centres. they funded by local government. the decrease in funding to local government is bigger, it is bigger in the north than the south. short start centres are closing in the north. this issue goes back to the 90s, it is not for ever, which is these younger, middle aged adults. 25 to 45 where you have seen a gap. the rates have improved, or not got much worse, but, much bigger gap, what is going on there? let's go back ten years earlier. what we saw in the 1980s, the difference for 25 to a5—year—olds in the north and south was almost not there. but it was rising, mortality was rising both in the north and south, particularly young men. that was suicide, alcohol, file and deaths, the kind of disempowerment we saw just then in your clip. but then what happened, in the mid—90s, things improved in the south. mortality started to decline and it didn't in the north. my speculation is, but disempowerment related to social economic conditions, persisted in the north when things were getting better in the south. that issue around drink, the death by despair, is part of what is going on in that group? yes. if you will hang on there. joining us from leeds is susie brown the chief executive officer at zest, an organisation offering support to people living in disadvantaged areas of yorkshire, and in brighton is christopher snowdon the head of lifestyle economics at the institute of economic affairs. suzy, just explain what you do and what you find and how successful what you do is? we have been working in disadvantaged areas of leads —— leeds for 15 years and we try and level the playing field, essentially. so there is great inequality and disadvantaged areas. we offer a range of practical support and more general support as an example of the practical support we work with jamie oliver's ministry of food. we have projects that teach cooking skills, healthy eating, budgeting and shopping to people, offering them the chance to learn to cook from scratch and lead a healthier lifestyle. does it work? it does, it is strong evidence —based that shows it does make a huge difference to health outcomes. more generally, we offer people just general support and we are trying to lift them up and give them a leg up and inspire them to lead a more fulfilling life. let me ask christopher, i know you have a critique of certain bits of policy. it doesn't feel like policy has worked over the last 20 years in reducing these health disparities, what is going on? the health rates themselves have fallen over the last 15 years, certainly. i feel we are addressing a cold case, in a sense. it's not news in the normal sense of the word. we're looking at a specific portion of the population, men under the age of 45 and looking at wide death rates amongst those people rose in the mid to late 19905. i don't know why that is, the author of the study says he's not sure why. we know what michael marmot has said, the main causes of death in that age, it is generally very low amongst people who are in their 205 and 305 anyway, but it is suicide, alcohol and drugs. you are right to describe these things as depths of despair. but income and economic growth are the great prophylactic5 for this. you see the north has less money and it has higher death rates and over time, society generally has got more prosperous and the death rate has fallen. but we have this anomaly in the north of england. in the 19905 specifically, 15u5pected drug overdose is significant and other things. but the gap is still there where there was no gap in that group to speak of in the 1980s. that is absolutely right. and there has been no recovery if you like. the rates have fallen very much since around 2003 or so. but they have not caught up. and it seems whatever caused that spike in deaths in the 19905 is still having an effect and it would be useful to know what it is. but the studies have not pinpointed that. i don't think it has anything to do with austerity or the slowdown in economic growth. the mid 19905, when deaths was biking, the economy was in strong growth. do you ever feel... one of the things that the paper suggests is that public health measures have done their bit in victorian times, with the sewers and vaccinations and the like, and now many health measures are individual measures. the paper doesn't believe we should rely on individuals to look after themselves, but do you ever feel you're just trying to basically tell people how to live their lives as individuals, it is not really so much a public health matter. no, i don't think we are telling people how to live, we work very much with people and offer a range of activities and groups aimed at lifting people and their self—esteem and confidence and giving them the tools to lift themselves perhaps out of a very bad place. if you walk around a deprived community you will see a lack of infrastructure perhaps, a lack of care, a lack of good things in that community. and if you're born into that or find yourself in that community, it's really hard to imagine ever getting out again. and, yes, there is all this — on television we see these lives and young people in that community think, that's not for me, i'm not somehow deserving of that. and people really do see themselves as never having the opportunity or the hope, they do not have the same aspiration to lift themselves up and we are trying to help from the bottom—up and help people out into better situation. thank you all very much. not long before we came on air, president trump aimed some pretty threatening remarks towards north korea. ramping up the rhetoric, certainly. he was at an event where he was talking about drug addiction and was thrown a question about korea. north korea best not make any more threats to the united states. they will be met with fire and fury, like the world has never seen. he has been very threatening beyond normal statement. and as i said, they will be met with fire, fury and frankly power. the likes of which this world has never seen before. thank you. fire and fury might turn into one of those memorable trump phrases. those remarks follow a report in the washington post today that said the us defense intelligence agency thinks north korea has developed small nuclear warheads that can fit into its ballistic missiles, if those assessments are right, they would imply kimjong un has crossed a crucial threshold. i'm joined by mark fitzpatrick who worked in the us foreign service for over 25 years and now is the executive director of the non nuclear proliferation organisation iiss—americas. you have heard the comment, what do you make of them? this sounds like blustering. it sounds like the president does not know how to respond and when he does not know he responds with bluster. the united states is not going to attack north korea, north korea is not going to attack the us but these kind of statement and the kind of statements that north korea has made ratchet up the tensions and could lead to misperceptions that could lead to war. just tell us what north korea, your assessment would be, what north korea could do in terms of retaliation or pre—emptive strike if it wanted to using nuclear warheads? first of all there's no doubt north korea has missiles that can reach anywhere in south korea and japan. and hit us bases there. i believe north korea could mount a nuclear warhead on those missiles and they would have no trouble delivering it. that is the situation now for several years. most recently of course north korea has tested missiles that could reach parts of the continental united states but whether they are reliable enough and could survive the intense friction in the atmosphere, that is not known. your question is what could north korea do, they could start a war, a conventional war that could soon escalate into a nuclear war. they could try to attack us bases injapan with a nuclear weapon and then threaten to attack the continental united states cities if the united states intervenes. and the washington post piece today seems to imply would get you more towards the continental us side of that beyond japan and south korea? yes, that is a new assessment by apparently the defence intelligence agency. they said a couple of things that were worrying, that north korea could mount could militarise warheads to fit their missiles. they also said it could be done with intercontinental ballistic missiles which is an assessment that goes beyond what they've said before. they also said north korea might have to 60 nuclear weapons. that is three times more than most analysts believed. it sounds like worst—case analysis in that they are covering their bets. altogether this is an issue that seems to be moving much more quickly, both the north korean nuclear programme and the dynamics playing out. it seems to be much more quickly than anyone can remember and you wonder if it will stabilise and quite down or whether it builds up to something? it certainly has been moving more quickly, in the last couple of years with north korea and they're very robust, rapid pace of testing of missiles. that has escalated this year. and now the rhetorical responses and assessments. but so far responses are rhetoric and we have to step back a minute and look at what the secretary of state rex tillerson said a couple of days ago, that the united states is not the enemy of north korea and has no intention of attacking, willing to talk to north korea if it is willing to stand down. so the united states is not adopting a threatening posture but when the north koreans hear the kind of rhetoric of fire and fury, they might think the united states is getting ready to attack and they might pre—emptively attack on their own. that is a real concern. thanks very much indeed. a big day in south africa, president jacob zuma, tainted by corruption allegations and an inappropriately close relationship to a wealthy business family, the guptas, faced a vote of no confidence in the south african parliament. it was a secret ballot, so members of his own party could knife him in the back without detection. it was quite a moment — mps waited for the result of the vote. those on both sides engaged in some competitive singing of a kind that we might think should be introduced here. singing in the end, zuma survived the vote, but it seems tens of mps in his own party voted against him. 0pponents said it's the end of the anc, a party split, and public opinion turning against it. it might be just such a turning point in south africa's history, but it takes a brave punter to bet against the anc. shortly after the vote, i managed to catch a few minutes with the chief whip of the anc, jackson methembu. i suggested the close vote of confidence, didn't suggest there's much confidence in the president. i am an anc man through and through. the decision of the national executive committee is that the president is not going anywhere. and indeed this is what we have been able to do today when in fact there was a motion by the opposition to remove our president and as a consequence also our government from office. right, well you have, you've won the vote today, no one is going to deny you that victory. it wasn't a very big victory. and the truth is the country is against the president and by keeping him in power you are damaging the anc‘s image with the people of south africa? i can assure you that the opposite is true. if we were to vote ourselves out of office at the behest of the opposition, the people who voted for the anc, the 11 million people of our country, would have been very unhappy, been unhappy with us. because we would have given the opposition on a silver platter a reason to topple government. i'm so sorry, the opposition have a reason to dethrone president jacob zuma. it's on a platter and it is all the allegations of corruption against him, which are widely believed in south africa. and by keeping him in you have effectively said have you not, you have effectively said we're not that worried about the corruption side of things? we acknowledge the concerns and legitimate anxieties of our people around issues of corruption. we ourselves have said around these matters we need as a matter of urgency, as a country, to institute a judicial commission of enquiry. so that all those who are found to be on the wrong side of the law, they must then face the consequences. if after the investigation indeed presidentjacob zuma is amongst those, then at that stage we can talk, but not at this time when it's only innuendo and all sorts of generalities. that have been strung together to remove our president. it is a little more than innuendo, isn't it, because of the very least we know about the cattle enclosure, the amphitheatre, the swimming pool and all the things on his house. but putting that aside, where does this leave your party because quite clearly, not everyone in your party agrees with you. you had a secret vote today. three mps saying they didn't support him before the vote. today the fifth of your parliamentary party did not support president zuma. your party is now in a very disunited place, is it not? well, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to know that our party is working on the disunity of the african national congress. it's something that we have been working on, it is something that we have been speaking to and again it is a matter that we will continue to work on. indeed we are disunited, but all of us have agreed that we need to put all our differences aside and deal with the issues that are facing our country. one of those issues are allegations of corruption, we are committed to the process. thank you very much for talking to us. thank you. well, lebo diseko is the presenter of the bbc world programme, focus on africa. is this a big moment for the anc? it certainly is. we heard there jackson saying even in the disunity, even when trying to defend the anc, he has got to admit it is disunited. the difference this time, there have been several attempts to try and bring a vote of no—confidence against president. this time it was really like he faced a battle from within. with the majority that the anc holds, for this vote to pass, for him to hang on, withjust such a small majority, is quite something. but he said, oh, it'sjust innuendo, we need to investigate these charges and he conceded public anger needs to be responded to. is it just innuendo? well, i think we need to be careful, because there are charges that were dropped that had been brought back, that still really have not been proved. he spoke about the allegations around his house and the public protector said he should pay back some of the money, not all. but the big thing that has forced this vote or lead to this vote being brought is the allegations around his relationship with this wealthy family. and basically the allegation that a family from a different country has come to south africa and spent a lot of money on the presidential family and are now influencing government policy and basically influencing the way the country is run. so you hear that phrase state capture again and again. the most interesting political experiment in europe this year is in france. there's a new president, emmanuel macron, he's pro europe, liberal, and anti—populist. he's the envy of many remainers here, who wish we had one like that. perhaps the biggest question for europe right now is whether he's a success. will he revitalise the radical centre ground of politics, in a way that other countries then want to follow? so how's he getting on? well, he came to power in may, just as our election became exciting and while he has been settling into hisjob, we have taken our eyes off france. but we can rectify that now, mark urban reports from macron‘s home town of amiens. amiens cathedral gets the son et lumiere treatment on summer's evenings. bright colour projected onto its 13th century facade. the place regains its original appearance, to the amazement of locals and visitors alike. this is emmanuel macron‘s city, both his birthplace and the cradle of his en marche movement. which now seeks to restore the fortunes of france. after an extraordinary campaign, in which an entirely new political colour scheme was deployed, president macron must now deliver. and there are already voices in france who doubt his ability to do so. in particular, recent polls show macron performing poorly in the pantheon of previous presidents. translation: we measured the approval rating of every french president since 1958 and it is with one exception the biggest fall in the summer of first term. the previous fall of that size was that of chirac in 1995. for an example of how the mood has changed, look no further than the students. delighted that the old game of reds versus gaullist blue had been outplayed by a new centrist movement, they turned out for macron. but cuts to their housing allowance are already causing grumbling. translation: for students the elections are now over. not everyone was interested in the first place. but those that were were more or less happy with the result. but now they're interested in things that really impact them like finding somewhere to live, finding a course that suits them. and the cuts to housing benefit which will mean less money in their pockets. not all is what it seems with macron‘s brilliant victory. many voted against le pen rather than for him as president. and in the battle for parliamentary seats, much of france abstained. in one sense it feels ludicrous to be looking for any real change in this society, so conservative in defence of its social model, just three months into this new presidency. as one amienois said to me earlier today, we are an impatient people. and voices are beginning to be raised, questioning the new president and what he's up to and those voices are even coming from within his own movement. a dissident group within the en marche party has been established and already has its critique. translation: what i have against this government and the national assembly is that they are confusing speed and haste. we could have taken the time to prepare the ground for reforms in a calmer way. instead of rushing them through in the summer. this season is never good for that. others have tried to get reforms through during recess, to push them through, and it's never good. at the bastille day parade, the president played host to donald trump which annoyed the left. and kept things just about civil with an army chief who he then fired, annoying the right. the hard choices of governing have inevitably taken some of the shine off his victory. translation: you have public sector workers who have had their salaries frozen then retired people who are having their taxes increased. and certain workers, largely on the left, who are against the reform of the labour market. then on the right the part of the electorate who didn't like macron‘s attitude towards the head of the armed forces, general de villiers. so it's an amalgamation of grievances that have come from different parts of society. back in amien, we asked two founder members of en marche how they see the coming months for their president. translation: it's going to be tough because if macron is going to be able to keep his campaign promises he needs to get significant reforms through and reform in france is difficult. strong opposition from melenchon and certain unions could be a big obstacle. translation: we activists need to take on an educational role, to explain to french people what is happening, why certain choices are being made and of course to counter all the fake news and promote the facts. if he is to keep the support of the national audience, macron then will have to rediscover the energy shown in his electoral campaign. but with strikes already called for september, and enemies gathering, that will not be easy. next week marks the seventieth anniversary of indian independence and the partition of the country into hindu—majority india and muslim—majority pakistan. the division tore communities apart. it was the biggest forced migration in history, as millions of muslims and hindus who were to be left in the wrong country so to speak, moved to where they would be in the majority. the partition was bathed in death and tragedy, and we'll be looking back at it on this programme next week — more on that shortly. but thousands of those who chose to remain, hindus in pakistan, muslims in india, are still living with the consequences of that separation, deemed "enemies" of the nation and their property seized. 0ur south asia correspondent, justin rowlatt, has met one indian man who's spent the last a0 years fighting to save his inheritance. i am known as suliman to family and friends. i am from a muslim family which once ruled a very large feudal estate, including a beautiful palace, which we still live. but the indian government is laying claim to my property, saying it is enemy property. no one is paying for it, so these days everything is crumbling. this dispute goes back to 1947, the partition of india, into two states, a muslim majority state called pakistan and a hindu majority state of india. it was estimated that1 million people died. 10 million people were displaced. some muslims went to the state of pakistan. many hindus came to india. it was not just the country that was divided, families were divided too. in the late 50s, my father took pakistani nationality and that is when my family's problems began. because when india and pakistan went to war in 1965, the government laid claim to our properties. there was an act of parliament called the enemy property act, which empowered the government to take over, temporarily, the properties of pakistanis. it was notjust our family which was affected, thousands of families were affected. the properties are worth billions of dollars. but, our issue is, that only my father took pakistani nationality. i have always been an indian. my mother was always an indian. we had to fight our case from the lowest to the highest court and in every court, we've won. and the supreme courtjudge said, that by no stretch of the imagination, could i be considered an enemy and considered me the heir to my father's properties. but then the government went and change the laws and the battle has begun again. i suppose, like so many people in india and pakistan, we are still caught up in the repercussions of partition and the acrimonious relations between india and pakistan. in a way, i have been forced to live in the past. and with apologies to yates, ifeel as if i'm drowning in their beauty that has long since faded from this earth. that report was produced byjustin rowlatt. now, as i said earlier next tuesday marks 70 years since partition of british india and kirsty will be presenting a special newsnight that evening, to mark the anniversary. it'll come from the bbc radio theatre, and feature some who lived through the division, as well as leading political and cultural voices. we'll look at the history and the effects of partition in the present, on india, pakistan and the uk. that's at 10.30 a week today. that's nearly it for tonight. but before we go, in the last hour the death has been announced of the country singing legend — glen campbell — he was 81 and had been suffering from alzheimer's disease. campbell was a self—taught prodigy and pulled himself out of poverty to sell 45 million records. we leave you with one of his greatest songs... wichita lineman. until tomorrow — goodnight. # i am a lineman for the county and i drive the main road. # searchin‘ in the sun for another overload. # i hear you singin‘ in the wire, i can hear you through the whine. # and the wichita lineman is still on the line. the weather has been at pretty dramatic on tuesday. wednesday will be better for most of us but we will see more heavy rain in the south—east. through the night, outbreaks of rain particularly south of the country, moving from the north eventually into the midlands through the night and down into the south—west. scotland and northern ireland looking dry so we will start the day on a sunny node. a grotty start for the midlands then improving. then it looks like downpours galore from east anglia into the south—east. this part could be experiencing heavy rain and possible disruptions. for many of us however a re possible disruptions. for many of us however are very nice day. some spots of rain in the far south—east of the country on thursday. it should be the best day. that's the latest from me. have a very good light. -- latest from me. have a very good light. —— night. this is newsday on the bbc. i'm rico hizon. 0ur this is newsday on the bbc. i'm rico hizon. our top stories: this is newsday on the bbc. i'm rico hizon. 0urtop stories: amid this is newsday on the bbc. i'm rico hizon. our top stories: amid reports that north korea has successfully miniaturised nuclear warhead, president trump takes aim at the leadership in pyongyang. they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. the motion of i'io world has never seen. the motion of no confidence in the president is accordingly negative. south africa's president jacob zuma narrowly survives a parliamentary vote of no—confidence against him. also on the programme, 13 beaches are closed on hong kong as congealed palm oil continues to wash