Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg July 3, 2024

U. S. Futures, bond futures are lower. Youll see what is happening across the bond space. Another day of yields melting higher. We could see a 12 week in the last 14 of bond pain. Yvonne we are set for three years of losses. David the 40 bit on the 60 40. Rishaad is it 60 bonds now . David 100 loss is the joke. This is the pain point. Rishaad the 10 month highs. 91 books. It seems we have a clear path to 100. It is going to be key. The Saudi Energy Ministers talking in calgary later on to their talking about ned zero. Saudi arabia, ned zero. Net zero. Russia also involved in this. Commodities elsewhere also in the fray. We look at what is going on. Rising iron ore. Is it hope, expectation or reality . We are seeing signs of china stabilizing. Is that what is the driver . Yvonne is it going to break this disinflationary trend we are seeing across the world is one key question Central Banks are going to have to talk about. The fed, they are not going to do anything. The pause is all but guaranteed. The dots. We talk about how important they are this week. Setting the stage on what it means for the rest of the year. There are still some markets. We could see one more in november. Next year cuts are those going to continue to be praised out of the market if jay powell seems hawkish . Look at all of that. A whole map full of it of how Many Central Bank decisions there are. Boe included. All likely to hike as well. We have the likes of some asian Central Banks. Boj is going to be the big one given the speculation. David what is going to be freddie. And what we think about the currency. Trading the weakest of the year amidst the bond lead. Our peace on bloomberg laid this out nicely that some of them are done hiking. Some of them are probably going to sneak in a last line should no one is going to raise the victory flag on inflation. Rishaad it would be churlish. Respect for the aged Public Holiday today. What is the other one . Sports day. David mountain day as well. Rishaad you would think there be a squeeze. Unless you get something this week out of the boj for you to be a yen bowl as it were. Turkey, at the Interest Rate decision. Bank of england, talking about inflation coming out the day after tomorrow. 7. 1 . Up from 6. 8 . Brazil with their overnight systemic especial. Yvonne i will let you say that one. David put that one on the tv graphic. Three this week plus the boj. The bsp, philippines, taiwan, bank of indonesia. Here is some trivia. There has only been one instance in the last 45 years where the dollar index is up 10 straight weeks. That was in 2014. We could get a 10th week this week. The dollar index is up nine straight weeks. Yields are pushing higher which is to the point of our guest earlier on, real yields are higher so the incentives for you to leave in cash in both his high. Equity markets on offer this monday. Rishaad lets have a look at what the senior multiasset strategist at state street has. Great to see you. What do you make of all this . In a holistic way what is your get feeling as to what is going to do well . What perhaps not and what is likely to be the centralbank action which may dictate all of this . I think the fed remains to be the most important one. Although markets are relatively expecting for no change anyway. It is really in the details markets are looking at. It is really the dots people are focusing on. Our expectation is there is going to be no change in the dots this year. But we are going to ca revision downward next year maybe from 100 basis points next year to only 75 next year. To really highlight or signal the higher for longer message. Another thing we will continue to see is whether theyre going to revise some of their core inflation forecast given september is usually the time we will get the summary of economic projections. The rest of the other Central Banks are going to be more status quo. We dont expect any changes in terms of the bank of japan. It is still awaiting game in terms of where they see us. It is a yield story. Driving the u. S. Dollar. That is going to the weaken the yen. But the bank of england we are already seeing lights of stagflation coming through. Annie rate hikes are going to be negative for the real economy. David droid take it that favors bonds over equities . 30,000 foot prognosis. Our focus has been defensive in nature. We are long u. S. Treasuries as part of the Asset Allocation strategy. We like the yield level we are seeing given the equity market remains to be diverged. We are only selectively overweighting surgeon markets. The u. S. Is the only market we have to continue to overweight on. Emerging markets, we have downgraded recently. It is an area we have downgraded and now it has gone underway. Yours in equities is were taking some at opportunities in the equity space but it is in u. S. Equities in terms of quality. The bond market remains a better opportunity not just for u. S. Treasuries but some parts of the em bond space as well. Yvonne the whole u. S. Exceptionalism, we had a guest last week said the opportunity cost of shifting away from the market are too high. Is that how you see it . Exactly. Hedging costs are still expensive for many investors who want to get into other markets but want to hedge back to the u. S. Dollar. Equity markets is going through and earning trough for earnings recession should the u. S. Remains to be one of the stronger ones we expect coming out of q3. Their earnings story is supporting the u. S. As part of negative Earnings Growth in other parts of the market. Treasuries is still a very attractive play given the absolute yields you are getting relative to parts of the developed market. The opportunity cost is still too high and we want to play safety and quality and that is where the u. S. Stands. Attractive relative to the rest of the world. Rishaad you have the magnificent seven which have and help the market and the s p particularly to these good gains this year. If you take the equal weight s and p, only up about 4 . What is the rest of the market telling . I think the mecca cabs have done very well due to a couple reasons. They have a decent Earnings Growth story. They are also quality in terms of they dont pay a lot of dividends but they are heavy firms. There is still a low depth exposure to many of these firms. There is sensitivity to Interest Rates that is much lower compared to the broader market. We like parts of the midcaps or small caps as well. It is selectively in terms of sectors we lectured energy is one area we are liking especially with Commodity Prices being much higher. Health care is another one we are seeing going through a transformational face. The rest of the other markets. Maybe financials in industrials is what we would avoid. Although it has been expensive, but given the quality they have we are happy to hold them. Yvonne will have more from ben. Coming up, we are going to speak with arthur lange as kkr moves to acquire 20 of the data center are. David next we will discuss chinas deepening property crisis. Country garden faces two more debt tests. Authorities detained staff from evergrande. We will unpack the stories just. This is bloomberg. David csi 300 opening lower. Was trading at the lowest of the year. Bouncing back after four days of losses going into friday. Maybe a lot of that has to do with what happens with sentiment around property. Whats have a look at where we are as for as those stocks are concerned. Country garden seeing pressure. Evergrande was pain point. Yvonne faded. David 21 at one point. Almost like you changed the channel anything the program has changed. Lets talk about everything on deck. Everything from this vote should some detentions and this winding up. Kevin is with us on set. Where do you want to start . Lets start with country garden. Two key things today. 15. 4 million coupon. 492 one bond. There vote on extending the bond due to end today. Both make it extended further. The bond is not to for five more weeks. The dollar bond because theres a 30 day grace period tiered like what they did last month but there will probably do the again. Rishaad logan group. That is going through a winding up phase but i think that has been delayed. Give us some background. Logan is a smaller developer. Two units were sued in Hong Kong Court for creditors to get the money they say is owed. We have had a number of these developers wind positions. The creditors were able to seek assets from the company through a winding up order. The same judge has issued such orders in the last year. In logans case she said this morning she wants to see concrete progress in debt restructuring the time to come back in late october. Yvonne yvonne it is a sign creditors are pushing back in some ways. They are not willing to kick the road any longer. We have seen some increased pressure from center ocean and country garden. Getting the onshore creditors on board. Country garden has been able to delay repayment on eight bonds. This is the ninth bond theyre trying to do that for. While they are making progress, they are facing more progress and stress as far as getting it taken care of. David the detentions. Yvonne it does seem we are rishaad it does seem we are moving away. They further down the track with that. It is hard to know exactly where these Police Actions are. Certainly concerning to the creditors. Especially the offshore ones were currently voting on evergrandes offshore Restructuring Plan tiered the votes are supposed to happen or the meetings are coming next week. This comes at a bad time as folks are finalizing opinions as to whether or not to get on board with this Restructuring Plan. Rishaad is it getting easier . We have had facilities provided by the government saying to banks you must lend to these companies. Is it getting easier because it seems the special fund is set up has proved to be as useful as a motorbike ashtray. It does not seem as though the companies are able to tap the financing. The government is saying banks lend to the companies but the banks dont seem to be lending to the tiered lending to them. David so much. Kevin getting us up to speed where we are this monday morning. In terms of the highyield space we have seen four weeks of fairly nice gains on offshore bonds. We will show you the graphic in moment. There has been some buying and the notion that the worst is over. The worst is getting kicked down the road. Four weeks of gains every week since late august. Plenty more ahead. This is bloomberg. Sweat isnt sweet. Its salty. Lmnt. More electrolytes. Zero sugar. You feel the difference when you get it right. Stay salty. 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French regulators raised the issue on finding the device raised more radiation than is the standard. Apple says the issue is not a safety concern. Result on which nations to pay for the worlds transition to sustainable energy. Energy mr. Says developing countries cannot finance the Energy Tradition like europe and the United States. David then is still with us out of state and global markets. Talking china and a brief look at global developers. About 50 minutes into the trading week. Thanks for sticking around. Lets talk about china. Not that we are anywhere near a rally but who knows. When this market rallied it is all gas and no breaks. My question for you is if and when this china story turns, what is the market going to miss here . I think property is one area we would just avoid. It is very vulnerable sector to focus on. In terms when we look at financial would be one area that could benefit from the target stimulus we are seeing right now. Lowering rrrs. Lowering mlf rates. Credit we have seen last month did surprise on the upside. If there is going to be a push for dividends back or value approach, many of these financials could benefit from their extreme valuations. Overall the market we track in terms of msci china, we have the ability to track Institutional Investors positioning. It has been extremely low not just for any particular sector but for the aggregate market. This is a market that most of what investors we see are still avoiding right now. Yvonne yvonne it is still a safer bet at least in the sidelines and miss out on the first leg of the rebound . Yeah, i think when it comes to a lot of the chinese equity rebounds, it is often easier i would say to see the turnaround first because momentum can be very strong when it comes to actually to see a firm rebound. Every time we have seen the credit impulse actually turning around it could lead to 30 or 40 jump in terms of msci china if that comes to be the case. I am not in an area we think we need to pick the bottom right now especially many parts of asia is not expensive anyways. We would prefer to focus on the tech space in korea and taiwan. That would be a better proposition compared to focusing on the china rebound rishaad youre not into the whole fomo philosophy. Thanks a lot for joining us. Emergingmarket investors have found a Winning Strategy in buying shares in smaller companies. Our asia stocks manager joins us. Tell us about small caps. They are not doing so much better than large caps in the u. S. But overall what is the deal . I think it is in em space we are seeing astonishing outperformance for smallcap versus largecap. A 12 percentage point outperformance year to date set for the second best outperforming year in 14 years. It does look a bit shocking but if you look under the hood, it is not that surprising. The top performers in the small caps space are those that are related to the ev and ai space. We have been reporting about those speculative frenzy in the areas. If you look at the largecap space, most of them are from china. The likes of jd and alibaba. We know how chinese stocks have suffered from the selloff this year as foreigners fully. That explains the divergence. Yvonne is it likely to continue, this outperformance . Yeah, i think in the smallcap space especially within em, these are very speculative stocks so caution is warranted. They are already up 15 . There are still bright spots in the space. In india, midcap and smallcap space seeing a lot of buying momentum as the rally widens out yonder the large caps. Also as global Central Banks and putting those in em markets are preparing to cut rates as the economy slows. That would offer impetus for a further gain for a number of smallcap stocks. We are going to see probably better quality names to continue to outperform in the near future. Yvonne our asia stocks managing editor joining us out of singapore. When it comes to markets we are seeing a down day when it comes to risk assets. Stocks in particular in the Property Market. Evergrande. This goes to show how volatile this sector is. Down as much as 20 . Went back above to flat and now down 3 . A lot of news on whether the whole investigation, the wealth unit means. Logan grew pushing back. The winding up petition in hong kong. Country garden facing two tests showed the one dollar bonds extending the remnant be payment of the bond. This is what stocks are doing. Down about half of 1 off some of the lows of the session. There is so much event risk. Rishaad health care was one of the few winning once. Joined by real estate. Sadly not hong kong real estate. The rest of the region is. Tons of event risk as usual. In the form of Central Banks and data. David that is all coming up. We will leave you with there we go. A clear shot of hong kong. If you squint there is a silhouette of rish i may be known for my legendary football career, but truth is, i love a bunch of sports. The only trouble is knowing where to find them. Thats why i got xfinity. So, i can easily find and watch whatever sport im into all in one place without missing a thing. Even if its football, australian football, or football football. In a word its fitzcredible. I got to trademark that one. This season, eligible xfinity rewards members can get up to 100 off nfl sunday ticket from youtube. Sign up for xfinity rewards now. Yvonne looks like blue skies over the lion city this morning after it was uneventful weekend. The ferrari winning the Singapore Grand Prix is one to watch. I am sure people are still recovering from that fun weekend. There is no hint of jealousy in hong kong. There is a return to sunny skies out here, but no sunny skies for the markets. Japan is closed, so not much in terms of volumes this morning. U. S. Futures are still upended as real estate and health care that are big appear across the region. China property is an exception, but most sectors are in the red. All of these metals are also consolidating. That used to be one of the bright spots in this market last week, and we are watching Southeast Asia. Rishaad looking at these also adding to the markets, we have an interesting decision coming up on thursday and indonesia likewise, so lots to play for. And as you mentioned, singapore not really reveling in the grand prix, the crowds of people. Absolutely insane. David and spence of expensive, too. Do not hit them with the jealousy. We are fine because we have the peninsula in hong kong. Speaking of, an official says that luxury demand will be continued as an extended problem product as they open their flagship peninsula blend. If you have an outstanding product, there will be an audience for its, and we have only been open for three days, but we are seeing a buzz in the lobby and the restaurants, people coming to the room, and london

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