Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line 20140626 : v

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line June 26, 2014

Stocks and the stories making headlines on this thursday. Alix steel follows the latest Earnings Report from conagra. We begin with our senior markets correspondent julie hyman, and alibaba announcing plans to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange. Julie, good afternoon. Good afternoon. There has been a heated battle between the nasdaq and nyse to win this prestigious listing which might be the largest ipo ever and certainly would be one of the largest tech listings on either of these exchanges. Click the New York Stock Exchange has indeed won this. It is now owned by intercontinentalexchange, or ice. At 160e is estimated billion. It would be behind ipm and oracle among Tech Companies listed on the nyse. There is a lot of talk about the importance to either of these exchanges in winning this listing. It is more of a wrist each idea here. If you look at actual revenue it isisting fees to ice, a relatively small part of its overall revenue. So it is more of a question of bragging rights. It is also a question of, can they then market other of their services, data services, other kinds of dusting services, to alibaba . Also remember that the listing fee for the company is based on the number of shares itself. With alibaba, it is going to be relatively large. If you look at how the two exchanges,the two have done in their competition of the years, nasdaq really faltered when it came to the facebook ipo, which did not go exactly as planned. The nyse has gained some steam since then. Nasdaq has gotten google and apple, large ipos. Have beene, there more recent ipos like twitter. In 21 through 2011, it illustrates what we have seen in a switchgear the nasdaq won 122 at the tech and internet listings. The nyse got 42. Since the facebook ipo, the nasdaq got a fewer number, 25, that raised more, a can, because it is the facebook ipo, but the nyse has been winning more in numbers. Of course, that number will go up exponentially with the alibaba ipo here it on one other note, it is being listed under baba. There is some speculation that because of the chinese meeting ba, the never eight, it has applications with good fortune attached to that word. But there is speculation that august 8 could essentially be the ipo. Looking between the lines. Is there still blowback from the facebook ipo . Is that why they went with the nyse . We do not know conclusively, but that could certainly be one of the reasons that contributed to this. In addition to that, the nyse, even though there are probably very few differences materially between the services that the two exchanges offer, the nyse is a more Traditional Exchange and has history on its side in winning this listing. What does it mean for reputation . Huge news for the nyse in terms of her beautician, given the size of the ali baba ipo. Also, even the recent trends that the nyse has been winning these big tech ipos, that is definitely even more of a win that it is keeping up that momentum. Julie, thank you so much. The other big story on this thursday, the u. S. Supreme court has curbed the president s power to make temporary appointments. The justices ruled unanimously that president obama exceeded his Constitutional Authority when he appointed three members of the National Labor Relations Board act in 2012. Lets get more from the steps of the Supreme Court. Greg, what does this all mean westerner as a practical matter, it means it will be very unlikely that in the near future a president can put appointees into high positions without senate approval. The Supreme Court essentially said the senate has the power to block the president from making recess appointments, and as long as the other party, other than the white house, has control of one body of the house or at least significant numbers in congress, it should be able to block the president from doing that. Ifthis is not a mechanism, you will, that is new to the united states, new to the executive branch. President s as long as i can remember have been making recess appointments. Is this all about the definition of what is and is not a recess . Yes, it is. In fact, much longer than either you or i can remember. In Justice Breyers opinion, he talked about recess appointment going back to the beginning of the republic, talking about recess appointment made by james madison. Said whenon is, you the senate is in recess what happened here is that the senate, trying to block republicans in congress were trying to block the president from making recess appointees, so they started holding these pro forma sessions in the senate every three days or so so there would not be a big enough gap for the president to make an appointment. Obama said i think that is a big enough gap, that is a recess. Today the Supreme Court said, no, that is not enough. It needs to be longer than that. The court stopped short of putting broader restraints on the president power, but still, it is a very big step, at least as a practical matter. What does this mean for the National Labor Relations Board and for some of the recess appointments, some of those men and women who were members of the board and some of the decisions in which they have participated . There are several hundred decisions that are now in question. They are perhaps avoid as we speak or will be void. The board will have to go back and reconsider those cases. In many cases, they may reimpose the same order that they imposed previously. It is differently constituted, there are two republican members on the board, and because they hear cases as three had a member panels, you may get some panels with two up republican appointees and one democratic appointee, and they may come out very differently than the nlrd did previously. Thank you for joining us from outside the u. S. Supreme court. U. S. Senator howard baker has died, and he served 18 years in the senate. He earned the respect of her publicans and democrats alike and rose to the post of majority leader. He his question at the watergate hearings, what did the president know and when did he know it, became famous. It instantly focused the nations attention on the watergate coverup, more than in itself and eventually brought down president nixons presidency. He was 88 years old. Next, conagra is out with earnings. We will look at the numbers and tie them into the ever changing eating habits of americans. Bottom line will continue in just a moment. Conagragiant preannounced fourthquarter results leslie, and the official results came out today. After a 681 million writedown, some analysts are calling for activist investors to break up the company. Onx steel joins me with more the story. What is conagras biggest problem . Conagra seems optimistic, saying we will see growth in earnings this year, and it will to 2017, but16 that is mostly due to costcutting, not necessarily underlying growth. That is were the Biggest Issue is. Back in 2013, conagra bought a private label business. It has been trying to integrate these two koreans appeared on the one hand, you have a private label business that has less shelf space and stores, lower margins. On the flipside, you have the name that conagra has, the brand names. They have better shelf space and can charge more. They tend to have a better relationship with the consumer. Because of this lack of integration, analysts say 2015 is a make it or break it year for the company. Ok, so how does this reflect and is in what we eat . Quite a bit, actually. Surprisingly, we are not eating that much. We are not going to the Grocery Store and buying a lot. Spending on fisheries has risen less than 1 a year since 2008 spending on groceries. You have a population gain and retailers getting to the mix. You people going out to eat. Like 1ardee brands is billion in sales for conagra, so it hurts them in particular. Cells should only grow by 21 billion dollars by 2018. So what are we eating . What are you eating . Salads. Oh, a healthy man. But that is a good point. A point out the health craze. Glutenfree is doing really well. Snacks are doing well. Glutenfree should grow 39 by 2018. You also have snack sales that should grow to about 42 billion by 2018. That is like potato chips. They can also be pita chips. Protein has been pretty popular. Yogurt sales should increase about 10 , almost 9 billion for 2018. Where does it leave on aggregate to the next stop for activist investors . That is what analysts are saying. One expert says if the companies cannot integrate, this will be right before an activist investor. Pslooks back at ralcor acquisition the post foods. It did not do very well in three years and sold itself to conagra because of pressure from an activist investor. That could serve as a roadmap for how to break up conagra right now another option from is that selling some of the underperforming brands might actually be a good option considering the stock is not really done anything. It is trading right around where it was when they bought ralcorp. In someabout investing brands . The company mentioned that today. They would be open to investing in some brands to create value. Recent food sales have been big and protein. Remember, conagra has names Like Hebrew National hot dogs and wolves chilly, which you do not and wolf chili. Thanks. Coming up, how investors are strategizing in anticipation of a rise in Interest Rates. St. Louis fed president James Bullard predicts the Federal Reserve will raise rates starting in the First Quarter of 2015. That is sooner than most of his colleagues have said. The committee is debating how much it should keep rates near zero after completing its Bond Purchase Program that is set to end late this year. Joining me now is the chairman of Cumberland Advisors and the chief monetary economist of Cumberland Advisors. Gentlemen, thanks for your time. The treasury is on the rise for the Third Straight day. Yields declining, even as the feds preferred measure of inflation gains, it rose to the highest since october of 2012. David, is this in anticipation that the fed may keep Interest Rates lower longer than expected . We were just talking about that. We dont know. The game is a changing game every single minute. Now you have bullard out today Just Announced it, saying we may start raising rates in the First Quarter of next year. You have others, and we were talking about Forward Guidance and what Forward Guidance we have we dont know. This is all a guessing game. Any chance we might figure out sooner rather than later . It depends on what the real gdp is going to be and ultimately what the Inflation Numbers are. I do not see the Inflation Numbers waking up at quite the same speed that has been talked about. Certainly come in his guidance and what he has talked about today does not reflect a majority of the views of the fomc. I cannot imagine them changing and such a short amount of time since the meeting. Janet yellen said last week that accommodative monetary policy, rising property and equity prices, and improving Global Economy should lead to above trend growth. We saw that number revised downward for the First Quarter gp gdp, 2. 9 . That is not insignificant. Was it an aberration or is it a harbinger . A lot of people think it was due to the weather, but it is hard to believe that all of it was due to the weather. I think what we take away from it is not necessarily that the an threat ofddenly going into recession or Something Like that. What it is is that it is still fragile. I think it is the fragility issued that janet yellen is concerned about. And it is also about how profits decline. And till we get to the Second Quarter, if we had a v and go down like this and then go back like this what if we only go halfway back . What is that saying . This was not just the weather, there was more going on. We have a huge uncertainty now, more than i think we have had in a while. Is something still structural doing this . Maybe, maybe so. I hate to be evasive, but it is true. Corporate profits were on a trend, exponential almost, and then they dropped off 30 in the quarter. That is an even bigger drop than gdp in some sense. Think david is right what kind of rebound will we get in the Second Quarter . It will be a while before we get those numbers. Today we learn Consumer Spending rose less than forecast in may. Fewer americans filed applications for Unemployment Benefits last week. Taken together, what shall we make of that . I think it applies slow growth. And improving gradual economy, slow growth i do not see much risk at all of a downside. But on the other hand, we are 2. 5 , something in that vicinity, for growth for a while. How long, through the end of this year, 2015 . Again, we have a high uncertainty. We did create plus 200,000 jobs a couple months in a row. It is Getting Better. On the other hand, it is Getting Better slowly. What we have not had, and we have talked about this, hell you see it ahead of time. We have not had an inflation shock. If we got an inflation uptick that was serious, this becomes a whole gamechanger. Define serious. 2 and rising. We are not there yet. If we get closer to that, this gets i am speaking with david and robert of Cumberland Advisors. ,he richmond fed president jeffrey lacher, spoke today, saying the central bank should follow the exit strategy outlined back in 2011. A question for both of you is its exitinning strategy on the repo market and rate . It is clear that that is where they are putting it. Is it risky . A very risky. Because they do not know what the elasticity of the demand is. The experiment is based on a few hundred billion p at we have 2 trillion we want to liquefy in that market. We do not own the market will take that or not. And we do not know what the rate would be. We have an experiment that ends basisuary with a five point rate. We have 100 new players directly coming to the fed. Once this is then flushed out and operating, we have no idea how this is going to multiply or work. It is a whole new game in military monetary policy. It may work well, but we do not know. Freddie and fannie and the wome loan banks are no counterparties in this reverse repo market. They are able to hold to posits at the fed but not able to earn interest on those deposits. Around a backdoor way that restriction. We have a minute left. The governor of puerto rico is proposing legislation that would let certain public corporations restructure their debt. Puerto rico has more than 70 billion in public debt. The Unemployment Rate is nearly 14 on the island. What does puerto rico need to do to reduce its debt . They have to restructure. They cannot sustain the debt load that they have. They are essentially downgraded to junk status by every rating agency. Uninsured puerto rico paper is not in any of our portfolios. What worries me is there are holdings in a lot of mutual funds. People are putting money into those funds as tax refunds, and those funds have holdings of puerto rico debt, and the fundbuyer may not know it. We have to leave it there. Always a pleasure to have both of you on. Thank you for joining us for what seems to be an every other month roundtable. Thank you. Thanks for having us. 26 minutes past the hour. Bloomberg is on the markets. Where stocks are trading currently. They are still in decline. The us of the off by about 4. 5 points. Was at one point down by about. 5 . Within the s p, most sectors are in the red. Financials, consumer staples, and tech. The only sector slightly in the green would be the utilities and energy. A couple stocks to highlight bed bath and beyond, shares of the retail chain are trading at a 52week low. The Company Operates home goods and baby product stores. Also check out neighbors industries. Willndustry Services Inquire acquire their hydraulic fracking business in cash and stocks. Newes are soaring to a 52week high on that news. Back on the markets in 30 minutes. Welcome back to the second halfhour of bottom line, on Bloomberg Television. Thanks for staying with us. When the u. S. Military or Law Enforcement finds an improvised explosive device, it sends it to a lab outside washington. There it is analyzed, catalog, and archived. The idea is to study the techniques of bomb makers overseas in order to stop terrorist attacks in america. We visited the lab and spoke to its director. The bomb is the terrorists weapon of choice. Any time a bomb happens in the united states, i personally feel it is a failure on all part on our part. We want to disrupt this attack from taking place. I currently serve as the director of the terrorist explosive Device Analytics center. Do here is we leverage the capabilities of the traditional forensic scientist sciences that have been used for decades. Some of the things that we can learn are the tactics that were used to employ the device or the material. Since the inception over 10 years ago we have received over 100,000 submissions of ieds from around the world. Inside each box there is a different submission from each incident. The Boston Marathon bombing. The northwest 250 three, when the

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