Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line 20150107 : v

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line January 7, 2015

Minutes different from what janet yellen revealed in her post meeting conference. Remember, the minutes detailed the discussion around the language. Most disciplines taught that the referenced participation indicated that the committee was unlikely to consider the process for the next couple of meetings area that puts any discussion of increase off until april at the earliest. There was debate about that language and some misgivings about it. Some participants thought that the language gave an unwarranted expectation for the market on a narrow range of dates around mid 2015 and has not adequately allowed for the possibility that conditions might evolve in a way that could cause an earlier or later liftoff date. There will be three sets, of course, after this meeting. They saw Falling Energy prices for as a plus for u. S. Economic growth. And inflation some with mores concern than others but they suggested they would be prepared to start raising rates even if inflation was running low the preferred target. With lower Energy Prices and the stronger dollar, it was noted that the committee may begin normalization at a time when core inflation was near current levels, although in that circumstance participants would want to be recently confident that inflation would move toward 2 of her time. No great divergence from what janet yellen was talking about. It seems that most of the Committee Members were with her in terms of patients, so they will lift off at april at the earliest, if conditions hold as they are now. Our chief washington correspondent peter cook. Peter, thank you. Lets look and see if there is Market Reaction to the release of the fed meetings. Julie hyman joins us. What a couple of days make on wall street. Yes, and the minutes do not initially appeared to be making much of a different spirit if you look at treasuries, not an enormous amount of difference in where we were a few minutes ago before the minutes came out. They do seem as peter was talking about, to reemphasize the message the fed had already put out there. There is more work in the details, but not necessarily any large surprises. You have to keep in mind the context. The rebound that we are seeing in stocks is off a fall the worst weve seen about 13 months. You might have investors coming in and going, maybe some of this outlook for rates going up is beginning to be priced in. We are still down about 3. 2 on the s p 500 where we were on december 29, when the s p was at a record. That selloff, despite todays record, is still off 3 . One caveat to all of this sometimes you see a delayed reaction, both to the federal statement itself and then to the minutes. In just looking at the dollar. There, deal well, we are not seeing an outsized reaction. Yes as people parse over the minutes a little bit more and see if there is something they can trade on, but as of now, not a lot of change in trajectory for stocks and bonds. Our senior markets correspondent, julie hyman. Julie, thank you. We will have more coming up with the executive president of pimco, joining us from newport, california. That is coming up in about 10 minutes right here on bottom line. Lets get you the latest on the parachuting. The city is on edge and walked down after men armed with kalashnikov rifles attacked the Charlie Hebdo newspaper office. The french president Francois Hollande just finished speaking to the nation, and in his address the president saying several terrorist attacks have been foiled in recent weeks. He continued that france will wijn for he continued that france will win for unity. Speaking in the oval office yesterday, president obama condemned the attack calling it cowardly and evil. [indiscernible] an attack on journalists. In attack on our free press. These terrorists fear freedom of speech, fear the free press. [indiscernible] Charlie Hebdo for more on the attack, Ryan Chilcote joins us, and we have the current adjunct senior fellow of the council of foreign relations. And we have our correspondent in paris. Caroline, i understand people are gathered in these streets of fairness streets of paris, showing solidarity . Yes, there is a gathering to show support for the victims of these attacks. This is taking very near the this is taking place very near the Charlie Hebdo headquarters. All of these people are chanting , and they have been chancing charlie, charlie. Many are Holding Signs in support of the victims. It is very emotional. There has been gathering in other cities across the country. It is a very emotional moment tonight. Has a been any claim of this possibility for the attack and do we know if the shooters were working alone or in concert with another organization . The investigation is still underway. The police are tracking the border of paris. No one is officially claimed responsibility for the attack but of course it has to be linked to some of the International Anger against just as president Francois Hollande was addressing the french people, he reminded the french people that there were foiled attacks just before christmas. There were two. Attacks linked to islamist there were two attacks linked to islamist extremists. They shoutedallah akbar, which means god is great. The investigation is still underway in paris. As i mentioned, our Ryan Chilcote is standing outside the british Prime Ministers residence in london. Prime minister cameron held talks at number 10 with german chancellor Angela Merkel. What to the two say about the attacks in paris . The focus all of the talks was supposed to be the british Prime Ministers desire to crack down on eu immigration into the u. K. He is up for reelection in four months and there are some groups that would like to see britain enter the European Union or have a correct him and immigration, and then this happened. They have been very public both David Cameron and the german chancellor condemning this very quickly. Calling it barbaric. The two called up the french president to express their sympathy and readiness to support france with her intelligence. They also have an intelligence briefing together, the german and french leaders. We have also learned the british Prime Minister also at that press conference talking about the security threat. In this country, he was reminding people in britain that he raised the threat level in august to severe the secondhighest threat level saying there is always the possibility of an attack here. They cannot completely preclude an attack. All they can do is try to prevent it by going to the source and working. Certainly political minds focused on what is going on in france today. Aside from condolences and condemnation how will the International Community likely respond to todays attack in paris . Its a really important question youre asking, but i think we need to go back to what we learned over the last 13 years since 9 11. This is a different kind of attack against journalists who were expressing freedom of expression in a variety of ways. There was a video made in california that the Obama Administration linked to the benghazi attacks. Whether it is this or another crisis, you are seeing repeated mechanism extremists used to gather support, gather the kind of reactions they know will be effective around the world. Lets be very clear. If they do that kind of thing, it is not new. It is liable to be a oneoff. What we have to do a better job of doing is stopping the recruitment of Young Children that would be willing to do this. Ryan chilcote, how will this likely play out in britain and germany where there is growing antiislamist sentiment . Yeah, that is a good question. Here in the u. K. , i would say it is perhaps a little bit less of an issue. You do have the party that has been on the rise here that is publicly calling for britain to exit the European Union, very antiimmigration. But i have to say it is mostly against immigration from other eu countries. It is not really antiislamist. The leader of that party has been very public and saying if they are perceived as racist and many people do perceive them as racist he thinks that the general public if the general public perceive them as racist that would be political suicide. Germany, it might be a little bit of a different story. We saw antiislamist demonstrations yesterday in dresden. German leaders new years eve address to the german people was focused on calling on them to turn their backs on these antialarmist antiislamist demonstrations. This will definitely focus Angela Merkel from mind to read she has been Angela Merkels mind. She has been focused on telling people not to attend these demonstrations and now this. The president of the union of the french mosque expressed outrage and called on muslims and christians to give strength to this dialogue, but do todays attacks make that dialogue less likely or more urgent . You absolutely have to see as many voices as possible pushing back against the extremist narrative. We have to see more constantly all day, every day. We will ask you to stick around with us. I would like to thank my colleagues in london and paris. Coming up, more reaction to the december fed report. Whether plunging oil prices might convince them to alter policy. That is when bottom line continues in just a few moments. For more on the fed minutes we turn to tony krasinski, a Portfolio Manager at pimco from sunny california. Tony, it was not too long ago that the fed chair janet yellen said that they would look beyond Energy Prices. Will she have to rethink that position Going Forward . Probably not. The word trend is one of the things that is important to look at, along with normalization. The fed knows that it operates with a long lag. As it raises rates, the effect on the economy will have a long time. Years. It is like walking a dog with a long leash. The economy will benefit from the following energy. There was a bounce for the month of november and it was lower than expected because of the big bounce in oil imports. That caused many economists to raise their gdp forecasts for the Fourth Quarter and four of the last five quarters we have seen growth of over 3. 5 in the United States, so it looks like the United States is growing are about where pimco projects. The fed has to Pay Attention to that mostly and not think about where the dog is. If it is in that range will it be affected by the feds tame table timetable for a rate hike . The fed, in the minutes you see a long discussion about it they are examining it closely. The statement for last month distinguished between inflation compensation, which is a way of describing what markets are pricing in versus Inflation Expectations, which is a way of describing what people on the beach, so to speak, on main street leave. The fed has been emphasizing what people believe in the fed has been saying that Inflation Expectations remain anchored. It suggests that the fed is still studying the issue. If oil were to fall more it it could delay the timing. But one thing, do not get too wrapped up in the timing. Think about the speed and the magnitude. It suggests these speed will be slow and the magnitude will be low. When the fed raises rates in the next cycle will not raise rates much like the rest of the developed world. The ecb keeping its rates and the same with the bank of japan. This will compel investors to seek higher returns in equities and fixed income and investor should be looking for those opportunities. Most people we have spoken to a bloomberg believed that the fed will raise Interest Rates by the middle of this year at the earliest. Will that inflation rate, the below 2 target, will that influence housing makers to hold off the rate hike . No and there were a couple of comments the janet yellen gave, ratified in the minutes which means that the fed will not move until the april meeting at least. It does seem more likely it will be june. The fed wants to get started. Unless the conditions change between now and then or if oil falls more or there is some other disruption for the fed to keep its timetable as it to get ahead of what it expects will be strong growth. One footnote on this the fed says for 2017, like 2016 and 2015, they believe that the u. S. Economy growth will be beyond the ability to grow, which is a way of saying that we will see a jobless rate the klein potential for the next three years. That is what the fed needs to get ahead of and not think too much about what janet yellen called the transitory effects of oil the klein. Oil decline. It is likely the impact will not pass through too much. Ok, we have about a minute left. Lets continue on that oil beat for a moment. The sharp decline in oil prices could it be overall beneficial for the u. S. Economy . Without question. We consumed millions of gallons of oil last year. Bill dudley one of the three most powerful at the fed said a month or so ago, a 20 drop in the price of oil globally will shift a benefit to consumers of 670 billion. So, it will be beneficial. And todays figures on trade are instructive to that end. Ok, Tony Crescenzi executive Vice President and market strategist. Thanks and stay warm. From your words to you nowhere. Tony, thanks. Lets check the markets with our senior markets correspondent julie hyman after a quick break and then we will have more on that terrorist attack in paris and more from our correspondent Phil Mattingly traveling with president obama, who is on his way to Michigan Bureau you are looking at live pictures from paris, citizens taking to the street showing support. We will be right back. It is 26 minutes past the hour. That means bloomberg tv is on the markets. Lets look at where stocks are trading. We do have the rally Holding Steady even after the fed minutes came out the emphasizing what we already knew, and that is rates could go up in april. In terms of individual movers take a look. These shares are rising the most in almost a year and it may be a takeout target for cg partners a bay out a buyout firm. And a 3. 7 increase in sales for the Holiday Season for jcpenney. They also reported at the highend of their previously projected range. We will have more on the markets and 30 minutes. More bottom line is next. Welcome back to the second halfhour of bottom line on Bloomberg Television. I am Mark Crumpton in new york. Thanks for sticking with this. In about an hour, prison obama will speak to auto workers in michigan. It is the first of several events providing a sneak preview of the state of the union address. We want to start with Phil Mattingly in michigan. Good afternoon. Good afternoon mark. Today was supposed to be the kickoff for a two week grant push before the state of the union. A beasley that has taken a backseat now, starting at about 6 00 in the morning. We have the Public Statement from the press. There was a meeting with secretary of state john kerry. National Security Officials tell me that they are working very closely with their white house counterparts. They are being very cautious. They do not want to raise too much alarm within the United States, but they are concerned. They are keeping a very close eye on things right now. Is there any sense from u. S. Officials whether the attack in paris may be an indication of something bigger . At this point i have spoken to officials in the department of Homeland Security, Law Enforcement officials as well they are checking nationally, at the state and local level, whether there is a reason to increase the threat level in the United States. At this point, they have not found one. That said, they are saying on this. There is a lot of concern of any potential spillover effect that may come. They have just not reached that conclusion yet. Lets go to the original reason the president is in michigan. He is going to be talking to workers, and no doubt one of the things he is going to highlight is the fact that some who called for the Auto Industry to basically die a slow death, but he said no. They view what happened in 2009, their willingness to bailout the Auto Industry, as a major success. They saved about 400,000 jobs. More automobiles are being created by u. S. Workers right now than any time since 2006. I think what the president is doing today, he is starting to lay that groundwork. It is an economic Success Story for the u. S. Auto industry. Tomorrow he will be pushing on housing. We will see more Going Forward thats for sure. Phil mattingly traveling with president obama in michigan. Thanks. Continuing our coverage of todays deadly attack in paris my colleague Olivia Sterns joins us in the newsroom. We have the crimp handed joining us from washington and we have the director of the Woodrow Wilson center joining us from washington and on the ph

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