Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line 20150122 : v

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line January 22, 2015

Mario draghi commits a trillion dollar qe plan. The ecb president did surprise market to some extent with his announcement of the ecbs version of qualitative easing. 60 billion euros a month in various kinds of purchases, in sovereign debt and assetbacked securities and covered bonds. The surprise came from the amount. There were reports it would be 50 million 50 billion euros a month. He said it would last until at least the end of september 2016. Depending on how effective it is. 80 of these purchases will be handled by the 19 National Central banks and they will be on the hook for some of their own losses. Investors did express a lot of confidence in his plan. One of them was the former chancellor current chancellor of the u. K. This is welcome action from the European Central bank. Action from a central bank is necessary but not sufficient for a european recovery. We want to see this a company by clear plans to make the continent more competitive to create jobs, to make sure our Public Finance is in order. We have all those ingredients in the u. K. And thats why our economic plan is delivering strong economic recovery. We want to see those ingredients in place for the european continent so the whole of europe recovers. All the ingredients necessary. Blackrock said it trust in mario. Optimistic about this move. The Market Reaction has been a plunge in the euro falling to its lowest since 2003. We are seeing a plunge in european bond yields. Spanish and italian notes falling to record lows, below where we are seeing u. S. Treasuries. European stocks rallying as well as what we are seeing in the United States some degree of optimism this plan will be effective. There are still questions about it and they were echoed by George Osborne and mario draghi himself. He said quantitative easing alone is not going to be enough to help the european economy recover. The ecb has done an expansionary measure today but its now up to the governments to implement the Structural Reforms. The more they do, the more effective we will be on military policy. Monetary policy. The theme of many investors have talked about. Perhaps this will help to some extent but the governments need to do their part as well. Thank you very much. J bryson is the managing director in global economist at wells fargo. He joins us now from charlotte, north carolina. Good to see you again. Thanks for having me. Were Global Markets expecting an easy be stimulus of this size ecb stimulus of the size . The market was priced more like 50 billion a month. They came out with 60 billion. The good thing about this whole move was the fact that it is openended. They say will go until at least December September 2016. If inflation in europe is still well below 2 i would not be surprised if the ecb comes back and does another qe2 so to speak. What type of gamble is this for mario draghi . What if as we look eight months down the road the effective strategy of this has not been fully realized . Then what . The real gamble on his part here is if it succeeds in spai n. Rather than having an inflation rate of zero or 1 , 3 . If suddenly we over stimulate the european economy, there is a downside risk, a political risk. There will be a lot of skeptics who will come back and say all of this qe leads to big inflation. He could have a political problem on his hands down the line. Germany has been outspoken. The germans say fiscal discipline is what is needed. Can mr. Draghis stimulus plan be successful without german backing . He has implicit german backing right now. Its a demand shortage. We dont think this is a silver bullet. It certainly helps on the margin but this will not over stimulate the economy. Some of the things chancellor osborne was talking about, some of these Structural Reforms all those things are good and positive but when you are talking about making copies more competitive and reducing rigidity laying people off at the end of the day. That is not staying stimulating at all. Europe needs the demandside stimulus. They will get that with a lower value of the euro. Some of the countries could stimulate their economy through tax cuts or government spending. If in the euro zone are not lending money because they believed the economy is still too weak does that mean qe will fail to make an impact even before it has had a chance to prove itself . If banks dont start to lend it will be detrimental to qe. What we are seeing is signs of stabilization in terms of bank lending. It is not going down anymore. The other thing the ecb did today is reduced the rate on subsidized lending. It is very, very cheap for companies or banks in europe to borrow from the ecb. They made it cheaper today. Hopefully that will spur bank lending. When will Global Markets start to see evidence of whether the ecb Stimulus Program is having that the side effect . Desired effect . Probably another two months before we see that. A good benchmark to look at is the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve had a qe program off and on but mostly on for six years. The United States had relatively sluggish growth. We are finally starting to shake that off. To expect the huge turnaround in europe this year is premature. We will be looking down the line. You will see the ecb having to double down sometime next year saying we will extend this beyond 2016. One of the main drags is the eurozones court poor performance. Is an injection of over 1 trillion enough to turn things around . Should the Quantitative Easing Program be larger . I think it is good right now. A year or two from now, it will be easy to say whether it was big enough or not. Like the openended commitment that they can come back if no more is needed later on i would expect to see even more at some point. Always a pleasure to have you on the broadcast. Thank you for your time today. Thank you. We will look at how the ecbs program affects appetite for european debt. That story and more when bottom line continues in a moment. More on the ecbs aggressive bond buying program. Lets look at what this means for buyers of european debt. Lisa bromwich joins us in studio. The ecb program, how is it expected to induce Economic Growth in europe . What policymakers are saying is, look stimulus is necessary but not enough. They are going to have to engage in some kind of political programs or something to actually get people back in jobs and get some growth. Right now, to give you a sense of how unprecedented this is there is more than 1. 4 trillion euros of european sovereign debt that carries negative yields. Investors have to pay for the privilege to lend to a country like switzerland for 10 years. You are paying for that privilege. One of the reasons why germany was not fully behind this. The german point of view is what you are telling countries is structurally they dont have to reform anything because they know you will throw them a lifeline. Or doesnt ramp up the pressure on policy to engage in some kind of serious thinking about what to do. I dont think anybody thinks it will be a mask for that at this point. You have the world awash with liquidity, japan, the u. S. Doing their bond buying. There is so much a stimulus out there. Larry summers had a great comment today. If you have a crowded room of people and one person stands up, they can see better. If everybody stands up, they cant see better. Everybody standing up and they are uncomfortable. What happens if this does not work . Then what . Did mario draghi embolden risktakers today . You will start to see some kind of increase in risktaking. The fact that there has not been more risktaking in the corporate sector is surprising. If this low right low rate environment persists, why wouldnt that be the environment risktakers want . You have withdrawals from a lot of high yield bonds. It shows how cap located this is. Complicated this is. The central bank does Something Like this volatility is supposed to be suppressed. It is not. It is the other way around. Thanks to the Swiss National bank they really induce a lot of hedge Fund Closures hundred of millions of dollars of losses. We dont know of the fallout from this. You have treasury yields high volatility rising to the highest level since october 15 when the world went haywire. There has been more volatility introduced by the movement of the Stimulus Program. Which a lot of people do not understand the applications. Tell the average investor why they should care about volatility. Volatility affects peoples risk appetite. It is harder to feel emboldened to go out there and take risk. From a Company Perspective companies are not going to be able to borrow as easily. If people are not willing to lend to them. Get people to lend and have a risk appetite. Will be cnes limited ways will we see any similarities between the ecb qe and what the fed did . They dont have the cohesion the u. S. Has. You have 19 Central Banks. A lot of diverging opinions are you have a reliabil a lot of diverging opinions. You dont have a reliable unified voice. Will this influence jenny ellen . Janet yellen . If you have Global Growth coming down, it will be hard to justify hiking rates sooner. Up next, bill gates predict there will be historic improvement in the lives of the poor. Highlights from his exclusive interview with Erik Schatzker when bottom line continues in just a moment. Welcome back. This is bottom line on Bloomberg Television. Im mark crumpton. Bill gates changed the world with microsoft and he spent the past 15 years try to change it in a different way with the bill and Melinda Gates foundation. It has given up more than 30 billion in grants to projects fighting disease and poverty in the developing world. They released their annual report. Conditions for the worlds poorest people will increase as improved dramatically over the next fitting is. Erik schatzker spoke to mr. Gates about the letter. There is a lot in the pipeline, whether its medicines or the way people a bank or get educated. We are seeing that people care about these issues and our ability to communicate and draw people in is better than ever before. Our bet is this next 15 years will be fundamental for the basics. Kids of surviving, people having a bank account. A period of incredible improvement. You have to get nutrition of its citizens, health of its citizens, education level of citizens Financial Empowerment up to a certain level. By having these tools, some of which are vaccines or mobile phone based delivery the lives they lead, the economy will be selfsufficient. What specifically has changed in the 15 years since you and melinda started the foundation to create breakthrough opportunities in the next 15 years . Childhood death is one where there had been a lot of work done before we got involved. But not ruled out. Since 1990, that has been cut in half. Now, we have those vaccines some of which are still in the lab that given the full 15 years, we will be able to get those to all the worlds children. Scientific understanding keeps advancing. Understanding hiv malaria, all these different diseases. Understanding trish and, what nutrition, what kind of seeds are productive, what kind of diet you have to have, teaching farmers to use a variety to maximize their output. What is more important . Technological innovation awareness and support for what you are doing or the sheer amount of money that is being invested in the kinds of programs you support . All of those are pretty important. You have to multiply them together. Without the science, we could not make the better scenes seeds or vaccines or have digital money. Without the donor generosity actually getting these things out would not happen. There is no market mechanism. The vaccines would be going to the kids were at the least risk of getting sick and not those with a high risk of getting sick. To have governments come up with that money you need this broad awareness. Encourage these governments come even though these people are far away and not often seen and these deaths are one at a time not this one a tragedy, it does grab people, this ongoing set of diarrheal deaths or pneumonia deaths that if you have an awareness of debt and see it can be cut you volunteer time or give money but you make your government takes some of its resources come even 1 would be jus very generous and give that to poor countries. We will have more of his exclusive interview with bill gates throw the day on bloomberg and more tonight on charlie rose. Build belichick spoke to the media today build belichick spoke to the deflated ball controversy. I came in monday morning and i was shocked to learn of the news reports about the footballss. I had no knowledge whatsoever of this situation until monday morning. I have learned a lot more about this process in the last three days than i knew in the last 40 years. He declined to answer questions. The patriots are accused of cheating. Tom brady is expected to address reporters later today. Coming up, fords new research and innovation center. The Palo Alto Center opens today. Fords chief technology officer. We go live to matt miller when bottom line continues in a moment. Bottom line welcome back to the second halfhour of welcome back to the second half hour of bottom line on Bloomberg Television. Im mark crumpton. Ford opened a new Silicon Valley Research Center today. Its goal is to improve technology in Autonomous Vehicles. Matt miller is standing by. He is with the chief technical officer. Matt . Yeah, and really the guy to talk to about this new Silicon Valley center, because he is in charge of developing the products in the technology. What do you think about this office, opening up closer to google, closer to apple, closer to places like nasa. A lot of people are worried is for going to lose its focus on building cars . I think it is becoming part of building cars, right . That capability. Small startups. All of the functionality people are looking for in connectivity Autonomous Vehicles our ability to analyze big data. Big data is so key. A lot of people are focused on the economist car, self driving vehicles, and that seems to me to be part of the Bigger Picture and the data is what it is all about. What we have right now, we have incredible computing capabilities. It stores 25 gigabytes and our. 25 gigabytes an hour. This is the fusion you are working on with stanford . Not even the self driving one. The fusion you can buy is generating 25 gigabytes an hour. It is still owned by the customer so we are just stewards of that data, but it enables a lot of analysis hopefully for the customers benefit and for us as a company, to realize any problems that the arise. That is a tremendous asset to safety. I know you are looking at things other than cars. I saw a few bicycles in the lab nextdoor with data recorders. Why look at bicycles . Why look at Something Like that . There are some big Macro Economic and socioeconomic trends happening. Urbanization. A lot more people coming into the city, a lot will more middleclass worldwide. Part of being in the middle class, buying a vehicle. Infrastructure not keeping up. Congestion, not keeping up that is increasingly an issue. That could mean changes in the way personal mobility is defined. It may include mass transit different user ship, ownership models, even different vehicle architectures. All of that is something we need to be looking at. Could we see i know you are a motorcycle rider. Could we see ford developed those vehicles Going Forward . We will be open to a lot of experiments, but they will be experiments. Motorcycles, who knows . You are right. I love motorcycles. But i love cars, too. You talked about these experiments. I noticed that ford is casting a really wide net in terms of a lot of things. Ownership sharing is one of the things you are doing, right sharing services. You have experiments all over the world. Is this keeping you a step had ahead of your competitors . We think so. We do not have a crystal ball. We do not know where this is going and 10, 20 years, but we are exploring these issues to see what resonates. We were talking earlier the gt, the car at the auto show in detroit, the new gt. But the 2005 gt is kind of the beginning of your experiment with carbon fiber and aluminum and those kinds of materials and its bonds the new f1 50 in a way it spawned the new f150 in a way. We we see that kind of combination of technologies . Yes, absolutely. We put some of those learnings in the f150 now. The inefficiency of the the efficiency of the engine. Aerodynamics. The use of carbon fiber in particular and what that means in higher massmarket utilization of carbon fiber. All of those areas will serve the entire fourline. I have to ask you about the self driving car, because everyone is so fascinating fascinated about it. Google has looked at it but they do not want to be a car manufacturer. Alan mullally used to work for ford. Do you meet with these guys, maybe volunteer for does their partner . I dont think we have put that together, but he leads the project at google. He is one of the smartest guys i know. We talk. We all talk to each other. They have tremendous capability and we are obviously working on our capability. It is something the whole indus is working on right now the whole industry is working on right now. I will be the one who breaks the story when they finally released the news. Raj, thanks so much. Thank you both. Coming up, rebuilding egypts economy. My exclusive interview. You are watching bloomberg tv. Im julie hyman with a market check. We are seeing stocks climbing to the highs of the nation. They have been rising all

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