From our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. This evening we will continue our coverage of the crisis in ukraine. Shots were fired earlier today by russian soldiers. Vladimir putin gave his First Press Conference since the conflict began. He saw no reason for Russian Forces to intervene at the moment. He did not close the door on military action. [speaking russian] president obama promised consequences for russias actions. From the perspective of the European Union and the United States, allies like canada and japan, allies around the world, there is a strong belief that russias actions are violating International Law. I know president putin seems to have a different set of lawyers and different interpretations, but i do not think that is fooling anybody. Everyone recognizes that although russia has an interest in what happens in neighboring states, that the activity right to use force as a means of exerting influence. John is in kiev. Russia is working hard to create a pretext of being able to invade further. Joining me now from phoenix, arizona is robert gates. He was the secretary of defense from 20062011. Earlier in his career, he was known as a russian expert. Thank you mr. Secretary. Sure, charlie. When will you lose that race . With any luck, in about three weeks. Is the president handling this right . I think he is. Trying to get the allies on the same page and be willing to collectively threaten and then potentially implement severe sanctions against russia for what they have done in the ukraine is exactly what he should be doing. I think that it is important at this stage to be careful with the rhetoric. If you do not say things to look tough, in retrospect, you look hollow. I think the challenge that the president faces is our allies may not be as willing to go along with the sanctions as they should be. Were hearing from the u. K. , germany, elsewhere a reluctance to impose banking sanctions or trade sanctions and so on. I think the administration and the president personally have their work cut out for them in terms of trying to get these guys to actually agree to impose the sanctions and do so in a timely way. Do you have access to all kinds of analysis of Vladimir Putin . What is he up to . How far is he prepared to go . I am amused by some of the headlines i have seen on tv and elsewhere. He does not understand that it is a new world. He understands exactly what he is doing. He is trying to reestablish russian influence. He is trying to establish a measure of control over the former states of the soviet union. He does not want to recreate the soviet union. He just wants them in effect to be part on alliance with russia. He wants them to do russias bidding. He is trying to prevent them from moving to the west. He has been successful in breaking the deal between armenia and the European Union. He has been successful in getting the ukraine and yanukovych to break the deal with the eu. They are trying to do this in a way that reflects a long period of history. I dont think he is trying to recreate the soviet union. But he wants russia to be in control. Why dont you think he wants to recreate the soviet union . Poland was never part of the soviet union. Ukraine is an economic basket case. So are some of the other states. He wants political influence. He wants these countries to look to russia for guidance on what to do on the international environment. He wants to recreate or create some kind of an economic union. He sternly does not want responsibility for the internal problems. They have economic problems. He says that the worst thing was the collapse of the soviet union, but you believe that if he thought he could recreate a soviet union, he would want to because of all the problems that would go with it. He just wanted countries, most of all the ukraine, looking to russia. They want them to be part of an arrangement russia, not the west. He wants to avoid them establishing stronger linkages with the west. He wants them to have much stronger linkages with russia. Russia has some measure of control. He says that specifically in part, does he not . He is a typical autocrat. He has made no secret of what he wants to do. He is doing it. I think he has a clear purpose in mind. Hes taking the long view here. He is prepared to play this out. We will see tactical moves. One way or another. I think we need to keep in mind what his objective is. My view is that he will not back down. He will not bring those troops out of crimea until he is satisfied that there is a government in kiev that looks to russia. Can we live with that . That is a tough question. It is not our desired outcome in this contest for the direction ukraine will go in. We want ukraine to choose its own path. At the risk of having you repeat this because we had a technical problem, lets focus on the two objectives. Putin on one hand and president obama on the other. What do they hope to accomplish . Putin has a long game. He is looking at this in terms of months or years in terms of russia reconstituting its relationship to the former soviet union. I think that is his objective. Ukraine is the most important of those states from his standpoint. I think it is a very high priority for him to pull ukraine back into russias orbit. That is what you will try to do. I do not think he will make any significant concessions. We will see tactical moves back and forth. But i think that you will not see him back away from that fundamental objective which he has been pursuing for some time. Our objective is for ukraine to have independence, for it to be a democratic a. For it to choose its own leaders. If he chooses to closely align with the west, it should be able to do that. Those are the objectives that the west has. It is clearly contrary. Those that say that has violated International Law and that he is playing the old power game, i think the answer to that is yes. He is. That is the way he plays the game. That is the way he has been playing the game. You said that president obama should be looking to her three moves out as if this were a chess game. What would that mean . I think one thing we need to do fairly promptly is to develop a menu of actions that we can say to reassure other nations on russias periphery, most specifically those that are nato allies where we have a commitment to defend them that we will in fact fulfill that commitment. I am speaking particularly of lithuania, latvia, poland. We must look picture rotation and various gestures of support for those dates so that we send a signal to their populations and their government that we will stand by our commitments to them. It is a signal to the russians not to fool around with these countries that are new allies. We can look at some key word in the future where we would show russia that these moves with armenia and ukraine have longerterm consequences for them. Beyond the economic sanctions. There are those who argue, and david brooks touched on this today in the new york times, that there is a kind of nationalism that putin is obsessed by. I dont want to use the word messianic, but it is something akin to that. It may replace rational outcomes. He may be prepared to go further than rationality would argue. I do not believe that he will go beyond rationality. I think he is a realist. I think is a very rational person. I think theres no doubt that david brooks has it right. There is incredibly strong thread throughout much of russian history of russia having a special mission in the world. Russia was the third rome, if you will. That goes back centuries. We talk about american exceptionalism, and the russians have their own version. Vladimir putin is a russian nationalist. He believes that restoring russias influence and power is at the forefront of his agenda. He intends to do it. How important does it mean to have an exit route. These are the kinds of leverage that we have. You have your own leverage, but we want to provide a way that both of us can with their own integrity and dignity intact, walk away from this. Whatever tactical compromise he may make in the period ahead, theres no doubt my mind that Vladimir Putin intends for there to be a government in kiev that looks to russia. I think he will not give up on that goal. I worry that he thinks i believe that he thinks that he holds a lot of high cards in this situation. We need him, with respect to syria and iran and the nuclear negotiations, we still have that northern distribution network. It will bring equipment out of afghanistan. He has significant economic leverage over ukraine. He had some influence in western europe. They still get 25 of their energy from russia. He is sitting there thinking that he probably holds the better hand here. Do you believe he will do better hand . Frankly, based on what i am hearing other western europe, and the reluctance of the europeans to embrace tough sanctions, i think right now he does. Is the europeans are not willing to go forward with sanctions, are we in a bad place . I think we are. Youve also suggested that some of your fellow republicans should tone down their rhetoric. This is a serious crisis that the west is facing. I spent most of my life in the government at a time when immediate crises, people came together and they were supportive of the president. There was the old line that politics stopped at the waters edge. I think people right now, while the president is trying to get the allies on board facing off with Vladimir Putin, having people call him weak or criticizing him is not helpful. We need to help achieve the objectives that the United States needs to achieve in this situation that we face. Is some means could be developed to bring the allies on board, germany, the u. K. , a combination of sanctions would restrain Vladimir Putin from taking the actions he is taking in crimea and in the rest of ukraine . I do not think so in the immediate future. I think over time, they could have an influence, particularly if they have the effect of creating really severe problems for the russian economy. The russian economy is clearly more intertwined with the west today than it was in 1968 when they invaded czechoslovakia. Over time, they could have that effect. To expect an immediate effect is unrealistic. I think you will hear more of what putin said earlier today in terms of defiance if there was an effort and if we were successful in getting sanctions put together. Putting on your historical cap, was it a mistake to push the frontiers of nato . I think those frontiers were not pushed into georgia. They were not pushed into ukraine. They are not members of nato. We wanted that, didnt we . We certainly want that. It was clear by 2008 that the germans and the french were not going to allow it to happen. As i have written in the book, i think that we probably didnt move too far too fast. I believe we should have immediately admitted the balkan states. I think pushing beyond those lines too quickly violated when i think the russians thought were the arrangements that were made at the end of the cold war. Do you think he thinks that he understands president obama . Do you think president obama is committed not to use force . In the end, will president obama give him more leverage that another president might not . I dont think so. I think if you roll the clock backwards, and lets say the president had used force in syria. He had done some things, or the Defense Budget wasnt being cut, i do not think that would have changed the calculus that putin has under the circumstances. There are no realistic military options for he was in ukraine. There werent any when putin invaded georgia in august 2008. Lets be realistic about that. George bush was the president in august 2008. No one ever accused him of an unwillingness to use force or not being tough enough. That did not deter putin from invading georgia. I do not think it would have mattered with respect to president obama either. Someone wanting this conversation might say that bob gates believes in the short term Vladimir Putin will get what he wants in ukraine. I think that remains to be seen. It depends on how tough the people are. It depends of the west comes together to speak with one voice. It depends on what unfolds over the next few days and weeks. Particularly in terms with solidarity in the west and the willingness to react strongly to overactive aggression by the russians in ukraine. If the west dont act strongly and takes a number of the measures we have been talking about, then i think we are in a good place. Putin also feel strongly about his objective. That is why i say this is an important crisis. This is a faceoff over a huge country in europe. Both east and west have a significant stake. I dont think anyone knows how it will turn out. But you think putin has more leverage than the present. I said that he thinks he has the high cards because of syria and iran. You said you do . I do in the short term. And based on what i am hearing out of europe, he believes he has high cards. If the west and implementations quickly, i think maybe his cart not look so good anymore. Are you convinced that sanctions can work . None other how tough the leadership, they will respond to universal sanctions that are applied well . This is one of those areas where i think you have to think 34 moves out. What would be required, what actions will be required by russia to lift those sanctions, what must they do to lift those sanctions . Do you lift them partially or entirely . People must be thinking two or three moves out. If we do this, what will he do . It comes to the question of, what will we demand that they do . What should we demand for them to do to lift the sanctions . If they are imposed with full coordination between the United States and europe. Im skeptical that the europeans will get behind serious sanctions. I have watched this in one of the things i worry about is that if we press as we did in georgia, there was a number of stronger things that we wanted to do and was onto georgia. But by doing them alone, we would have isolated ourselves, instead of the russians. That is one of the risks for the president. If he pushes too far. He looks behind them, and none of the europeans are there. We risk in isolated. I am not optimistic about how this will turn out. In no small part, because i do not think the europeans are prepared to take the steps necessary to put the pressure on putin. That is a bad omen for the future. I think so. Secretary gates, thank you so much. A pleasure. Thank you, charlie. We turn now to mikheil saakashvili. He joins us from kiev, on skype. He was the previous president of georgia. Many have compared his current invasion to the invasion of georgia in 2008. I am pleased to have him here on this program from kiev. Tell me what you think the russians are up to and how far they will go. Putin wants to grab the crimea for good. He wants to advance his political agenda. He wants to feel like a strongman all over europe. There is one basic reading crimea. Theres shale gas. Crimea has almost 100 of ukraines shale gas reserves. Ukraine would be a big exporter of shale gas. That would mean that russia would lose its biggest customers in europe. Europe would get a major alternative source of energy. Putin basically killed the whole idea of Energy Independence for ukraine. Not many people talk about this. There are American Companies that have interest in the shale gas. It is really a big political gamble. For the rest of ukraine, there is longterm destabilization. What does the west have to do to stop this. There are lots of things at stake for the west. There are big challenges. What is really happening now is that ukraine is 10 times bigger than georgia. If he is not stop here, he will go further. There is an american website that publishes something based on u. S. Diplomats from 2008. I was predicting the precise time of the crimea operation. I hate to predict it this way. But my next prediction is that if he gets oil, he will go into the baltic states, even if they are members of nato. This guy wants to restore the soviet union. It is a destruction of postcold war in europe. In one of the main beneficiaries of this work. One of the major challenges for longterm stability. There are lots of things that need to be done and cannot be done to stop it. People are faced with this outrageous challenge. What is the lesson from 2008 . The main lesson is that the west continues to be business as usual. It is decided by the European Union. The problem is that europeans are not talking about the occupation. They are saying that there is an escalation. There are lots of possibilities. They may have one less military outpost. And europeans may say, by doing that, so what . That is a catchphrase. They should not be talking about escalation. They should be talking about occupation. This trouble is not going away. [inaudible] it is like how nazi germany grabbed the sudeten land. Chamberlain was some people in the west may say the same thing about ukraine. We are in postweimar europe. This is a challenge for everybody. The United States have the political will to stop mr. Putin if his agenda is as you describe . [inaudible] it will cost Vladimir Putin. He thinks it is a zerosum game. It is not a zerosum game. The problem will be that americans have lots of other things to do. It will go from a serious citizen nation it will go into a three situation that affects financial markets. This is something that is really major and big. It will get bigger. Their visit there is a huge, desperate need for intervention. This is not usual. In a way, i have a hope that this will end. It is terrible. [inaudible] i had my last meeting with putin in the runup to the work. He made some nice promises, but they were never delivered. He is very clear. He does not want to be here. He wants to be here. Notwithstanding everything that you have set and all the people ive talked to in the United States, the question remains, is he prepared to go a long way in pursuit of these objectives . What does the west and the United States have to be prepared to do . Does it require actions beyond economic sanctions. Beyond going into some meeting of other western countries. First of all, targeted sanctions are a big deal. I am not sure the west is prepared for that. It will lead to collapse of real estate. The west should go beyond that. We have self interest. It is a very short time. You think putin is desperate and this is an act of desperation to cover up failures at home . He knows better than everybody that he has troubles of russia