From our studios in new york, this is charlie rose. We begin with a dramatic announcement by the president today. The United States will begin to normalize relations with cuba and open in embassy in her vona for the first time havana for the first time in a half century. It is most significant change since the cuban revolution. After alan gross was released from a prison after five years. The deal was negotiated during the 18 months of secret talks between the u. S. And cuba hosted in canada and the vatican. Obama and wright will cost wrote ul castroone raoou spoke by phone. Obama announced the new policy earlier today. America is changing his relationship with cuba. End an outdated approach that for decades has failed to advance our interests and we will begin to normalize relations with our countries. Through these changes we intend to create more opportunities for the american and cuban people and begin a new chapter among the nations of the americans. My administration has held discussions with the cuban government about allens case. Holiness pope francis issued an appeal to me urging us to resolve the case and address agents jailed for 15 years. I have instructed secretary kerry to reestablish relations severed since january 1961. Highranking officials will visit cuba. We will advance shared interests these are the steps i can take as president to change this policy. The embargo imposed for decades is now caught a five in legislation. As these changes unfold and look forward to Engaging Congress in a serious debate about lifting the embargo. Joining me to talk about this breakthrough in u. S. Relations, and ernesto londono. The paper has been urging the restoration of diplomatic relations with cuba with a series of editorials. I am pleased to have them here. This, whatp me with the president has said, we want to establish full diplomatic relations, we want to have an embassy, but this is a process. He said to the secretary of state, start now. There are some very views. This is a huge step forward. Congress has a role in this because of the embargo. That, andd all whatever differences there might be, react to this. Tell me what uss about this. The white house had to options. Steps to see if this could gain some traction, or they could have gone big. They chose to go big. Big asnt as far and as they possibly can with ben the law thatts of the 1996 codifies the embargo. Once these changes get off the ground and start being implemented it becomes easy for americans to travel to cuba, to help the new private sector, the reality of the transformational nature of these changes will inform the broader debate that will have to land in congress. Over the future of the embargo . Over what the legislative approach needs to be toward cuba. There has been a growing number of lawmakers that have seen the merits of engagement with cuba. Cuba is a difficult country to engage in. Their human rights record, there is still a reality on the island that does give american lawmakers great concern. The question is whether we stand to influence the reality of their through punitive measures if we tried for five decades, or whether engagement in particular alongside other governments in the western hemisphere stands to be a better approach. We had argued that it does. The greatest revelation of the day was that raul castro said in his speech to the people , obamas decision deserves the respect of the cuban people. That is a dramatic departure from what the cuban government has told its people about the United States since 1960. I would a book not about the politics of cuba, but about the people in havana. My interviews were based on peoples daily lives and experiences, and the way they interpret the government. And the people, and the way that their daily lives are impacted by these roles. A couple of things interested me. The president constantly referred to the cuban people. He didnt talk about the government. Addressed to him. The second, he had a 45 minute phone conversation last night with raul castro. What was that about . What did they say. In the history of cubanamerican relations, there has been a long history of back channel talks of secret negotiations that through the years sought to get to this moment where the president s could agree to chart a new half forward. Historically there was always something that derailed those. Sometimes it was politics, a spoiler. Is a levelnths this where the two president s could and sign theone dotted line, and make the deal. That is really important. In your bookseries about the cuban people. Is this something they desperately wanted . Definitely. Because of the Economic Conditions or because they want to be having a Free Exchange with the United States . Both. Economics has everything to do about it. It is a matter of perspective. The idea being recognized as a sovereign nation never colonized by the United States nor vilified is huge. Interesting, the president has received criticism because he wasnt bold enough. This is clearly bold. Looking at this, shows boldness. This was as far as he could have gone without running into what is codified in law. Are you surprised that it happened while the dell castro is a life . His brother has begun to be different. As you suggested, theres a new Vice President who represents the air heresy. Reallyl castro has disappeared largely from view. Sometimes there are columns published under his byline with some remark. But he is no longer running the show. If you look at what has happened politically on the island since raul castro took the reins in 2008, there has been notable changes. There has been a gradual and limited liberalization of the economy. It has said transformations for hundreds of thousands of people left the chance to Start Building lives that are not wholly subject to state control. That is usually important. It has changed peoples mentality. It has changed the dna of the people there. It has planted the seeds of hope be a healthyd economy going forward. The government started lifting restrictions on cubans that wanted to travel abroad. This allowed dissidents to travel for the first time and have exposure to a cubanamerican diaspora, to cubanamerican lawmakers. This represented a sea change. The cubans have made some of these decisions with and i to paving the way for the United States to normalize relations. I think these were deliberate from their Vantage Point that were not risk free. They were in investment in getting to this point. There are some people who are the senator from , menendezarco rubio from new jersey, voicing objections to this. One of the political ramifications on american politics . Im not a politics expert. Im interested in the fact that the reactions to this moment are predictable in their dissent. Im more interested in the fact that in miami, i havent heard a ton of voices that are actually echoing theirs. Ive heard support. More think goodness. And it is logical. People listening to this, who care less about the dimensions, because they are adventurous and want to go to cuba, when will they see changes they can act on . Travel. Travel, go visit and stay . Still on. Argo is what obama can do was expand travel possibilities of people with these is. We can assume he is not going to deny people these is for virtually anyone. It has become easier to travel to cuba. It is still very expensive. You have to go through these to make it a equivalent to 40005000 dollars. Learnn go on trips to about the tobacco industry, to learn about art. These people to people exchanges. Going to make this even easier. It is going to broaden these categories. So that it is easier for people to go to the island. To have a wholesale normalization of travel, to have American Airlines flight to takea, that is going to lawmakers to look at this. What is your love affair . I loved cuba from the first some i went there. It felt like the strangest visit id ever been on. Im sure you know what i mean. I loved cuba because it was the strangest place i had ever been. From the outside, it looks like it appears, these cliches. The old buildings, the old cars. They look decrepit but elegant. The energy i found there was resourceful and interesting. And savvy. Internationally sophisticated, exciting. I has a 20yearold studying abroad felt like this didnt match what i had been taught in the United States. Thedid it match what cliches said it would be. What we know about this intelligence . This by had been there for 20 years. We know very little. Years ago, 20 years ago, the cubans arrested a Cuban National who was very important intelligence person for the night at stake. A Senior Pentagon official who was one of the nations top experts. His recruitment was one of the most startling chapters in the history of espionage. In miamied information 20 years ago. This was clearly somebody who went to help the americans, to provide useful information, to the cubans were able to intercept and stop. Apparent that the American Government went to Great Lengths and considered it out of this man a tremendous gratitude to do everything in freedom. What can we say about allen gross . Alan gross. He was sort of a linchpin in terms of the reason to have this conversation. Yes. The interesting thing is to understand the roles played by different people who wanted to see this happen, including the pope. Who else might have played a role . Canada played a role. Estern europe it was interesting, at the vatican this fall, the cuban church, the Catholic Church in behind the scenes were able to bring the American Government together to seal the deal, some weeks ago, it is fascinating. Talk a little bit more about that. The idea of what the challenges will be. The roadblocks that will damage the hoax of people . I think there has always beens oilers. There has always been people on both sides who havent wanted a healthy relationship for a number of reasons. The prospect of a normalized relationship with the United States is going to mark for dramatic change in who they are. They have been telling people they need to control their life, the economy, because they are against the country trying to do stable. Therelationship between cuban government and its people will have to be different. I hope it will lead to a less repressive society. And a more empowered society. If i might add to that, i agree. Beyond that, the cuban government has used the embargo sufferreason why people material deprivations for as long as i can remember. Honor i was in have savannah after a hurricane. Thee were signs that hurricane was the fold of the United States, the embargo. Some of that was true. Constructiont buy materials from the United States. , itake that excuse away will make the cuban government entirely responsible for its citizens, which will have repercussions. It will bring in shortcomings , which i think will be big. Thank you very much. Back in the moment. Stay with us. We turn to the russian economy. One of the First Financial crises in years. Rate,ble hit its lowest plummeting oil prices and western economic sanctions. The russian government is pulling out all stops to reverse the decline. Sellingures include billions in reserves and a drastic Interest Rate increase. Some more about the impact on the Global Financial system, and threaten the political appeal. Joining me now, ian bremmer. Him back at to have this table. Welcome. Do cuba for a moment . Youre constantly talking to world leaders. This is news to everybody. A dramatic step by the president. What are the implications for that in latin america and the United States . Its about time. 50 years. The cubanamerican population, sentiment haso died off over a long time. A lot of companies in the United States want to go back. You dont have these issues. It is just hurting american companies. There have been people who have tried to go back. Deal. S a big it is a big win for both countries. Whats in it for us, our companies . It is a closed market right next to the United States for the tourism will be extraordinary. Or has been offshore drilling there. American firms will engage there. You suddenly have a new site in your backyard to make money. A lot ofd point, places will take a hit. You look at cancun. The tourists are going to go to cuba. If you were doing big deals in the bahamas you might see those that operate. Bad is this economic decline. Will be in and the implication. Me, thenteresting to americans get to go to cuba. I think we won on that. That would be my perspective. It is getting harder. Haveact that the americans made a better trade on many things is apparent over the course of the past couple of decades. This has been a tough year economically for russia. It would have been a tough youre even if russia was the nicest guy. 7 of their economy. Little less than that. But it is important. They have not been able to diversify their economy. , shoots uppresident 100, looks like a genius like no matter what. What is likely that there will be a change in oil prices . Less bearishle bit on oil in 2015. That. T really buy people that were going to take oil off the market. If that is the case, to produce, to get prices back up. If you are thinking about it you dont put it up. You do it on your time. Much more ok. Then you have people who know about it. People can arbitrage that on the way up. I do believe at some point in the beginning of the year the studies are going to take oil off. , Significant Oil that is going to come off of libya in 2015. Goublicans are likely to against iran. Low, you start to see people and consumers doing better. Consumption increases. That increases demand. Im not an oil price watcher. If you ask me, projections for russia over 2015 should not be baking in 50 in oil or lower. More than 60. More than 60. Political ramifications, even though you set in the short term he is still popular. Shortterm is longer there is a lot of wishful thinking. You put the sanctions against him, these 10 different sanctions. His Approval Ratings have stayed in the 80s. They were 88 in october. There is a large demand and russia for someone to stand up and tell the west, we have had enough. Putin has been saying that. Oil and 50 is a problem for putin. Oil at 50 and sanctions where he can scapegoat the west and the ukraine is a better narrative. If russia, if this was just an economic crisis. With very few countries that large economies, we would be talking about it. We would spend serious time on it. This is a geopolitical conflict. This is who is seeing his popularity as requiring escalation and a tough response. Does he want to die for attention . It is hard to divert attention when the ruble is in freefall. Over 400ge reserves billion at this point. He has little sovereign debt outstanding. 10 of gdp. Even if you add corporate debt, it is only a third. You are talking about and told a totalus billion of 100 plus billion. They could cover it. The idea of the west is going to beat the russians into submission in the near term, we look at 2018, like to get more dicey. We are not thinking about that. We are think about the next three days. His ability to ratchet up the pressure, and not just over the ukraine is significant. What should the u. S. Do . Daysu saw in the last few the republicans put a bill for the broadly to increase sanctions. In this environment it is hard to imagine the americans taking pressure off of russia. , maybe wese sanctions should take sanctions off now that they are really hurting. The west is in a bit of a bind. The smart thing for the americans to do, provide more support for the ukraine. Downo facilitate a climb of the sanctions. The europeans cant really go ahead with the Association Agreement with the ukraine. The currency collapse in russia is real. It has rebounded a fair amount because they have dumped foreigncurrency holdings. There is no question. With the west. Ng economically, there is not a huge amount of exposure to russia in good times. If the russian economy collapses you will see some europeans taking big hits. Not so much the americans. I have no idea who did the cyberattacks against sony. The russians have that kind of capacity. Are you suggesting they may be behind this . No. Going for the what they have im suggesting coup his cabinet have been consistently allowing u. S. Policy is oriented toward regime change against russia. That we want to punish them to the point that putin will be weakened and destabilized. If they believe even a little bit of that, the willingness of the russians to hit back in a serious way using whatever tools are available [indiscernible] that would be useful. Here was such debate how do you convince them of that . That is the challenge. Trying to contain them. , the sanctions against russia so many have been oriented around putin. It hurt. To make who are the oligarchs close to him . The same sanctions that are the most effective against putin are the ones that look like you are facilitating regime change. We are hurting who. We are hurting the russians. If the goal is to punish putin, level of declare a success. Were not helping the ukrainians. Were helping the chinese. Having said that. We also are pushing them into a corner. I ran can push into a corner because there is not much they can do. If russia really feels in a corner, like it will capitulate or lash out, i suggest lash out is what he is likely to do. That does have some geopolitical danger for us. Ciber is one area potential between nato and russian troops. I think of accidents in the air. Those things become more likely. Thank you for coming. Group, back in a moment. Harry shearer is here. He is an actor and voiceover artist. He won an award for his work on the simpsons here go he has been putting the simpsons. He has put together nixons the one. Welcome. Thank you. You are living in new orleans. A place by the beach. How are you spending your time . I made this nixons series for sky tv. The timeost of doing that. You now. You dont need to own all of it to control it. This last year and a half ive been doing a play in the west end. A very serious play. What is