Isnt useful for them and extend their influence within their own regions. The u. S. Dominated postcold war world has come to an end. No one knows what comes next. That is what the book is about. What comes next . Ian bremmer so are the americans and what do we stand for . It was clear in the soviet era. We come into 2016 in the president ial elections and it is very clear people are unnerved by that world we live in and americas role in it. You look at the headlines in the past weeks. You look at the gulf summit, where we invite key allies and four of them dont show up to meet with obama. Charlie thats not fair, they showed up. Ian bremmer they said they were coming. Charlie but the crown prince and deputy crown prince are perhaps as much involved in educational policy as anyone in the country. Ian bremmer i would argue if the king said he is coming and then the king says im not coming up one week beforehand, that is an extraordinary breach of protocol. Charlie but that was clearly on the part of that king with no other reason than to suggest a different with the administration . Ian bremmer without question. Charlie not because he had other things to do, not because ian bremmer if the king doesnt show up to see me, i would feel pretty good about that. You would be ok with it. But still, obama is not you and me. My netanyahu comes, after the president says dont, or even more importantly when the brits say, we dont care if you dont like it, we are going to become leaders of the Infrastructure Bank. The fact is americans have not seen this kind of behavior from our allies in recent days, and theyve not seen the chinese and russians as they are doing military exercises together in the mediterranean. They have not seen the turks and allies say we are going to buy weapons from china. They have not seen the dutch the nato allies says we will use Internet Security from a chinese firm. Suddenly, there is a lot of people saying america looks pretty good in the economy, but Foreign Policy influence is clearly in decline. Who are we and what do we stand for . Charlie and he said there are three ways we can go. Ian bremmer i do. I dont believe we are in a corner or we only have one path. I get unnerved when you have political leaders saying this is the only thing we must do, we have to be strong or give up. I think the worlds only superpower, no one else is even close to project the military, economic, diplomatic technological and soft cultural power america has. I do think we have real options. I lay out the three i think are most critical. Number one. Indispensable america. That says, we know that our allies are not as aligned and maybe a little more weak than they used to be in the Global Environment is more challenging. We dont want to be the world please than likely used to. What if we dont play the role, no one else is going to. And it will lead to so much more conflict that we will end up bettering our shores to. Charlie does not nature abhor a vacuum . Or for the time being, no one is prepared to do it . Ian bremmer clearly for the foreseeable future, no one is going to do it globally. A lot of people will do it locally, but the problem is you know some of those people hate the other people who will do it locally. So it leads to conflict. If the americans play no role, we see what happens. Charlie lets assume it is not indispensable america. What else . Ian bremmer moneyball america. Nonsentimental. Beautifully written, not sentimental, that says you can talk as much as you want about promoting democracy all over the world, but the fact is there are a lot of countries that dont want it and dont take it. Tell the chinese you have to do human rights, the chinese will not respond well. In the middle east, even if you have influence, it doesnt happen the way you want. Moneyball really says, stop with all of the values. Instead, run the country more like a company. Look at return for investment. Pivot to asia if that is where they really want us. Our asian allies really want us in asia. Our european allies are pretty divided in what they want. Youre giving me a hard time today. In that case, you pivot. But that implies you take one foot and actually move it. That means we dont focus as much on iraq and syria, because they not are as they are not as requisite threatening. Moneyball means many tough decisions. The third is independent america. That says, all of this sounds really nice, but if youre not prepared to actually follow through, if youre not going to write the checks, it is much better for our allies and adversaries and ourselves to come clean and be transparent about these things now. And say, we are going to play much smaller role globally. We are going to not demand respect by saying that you have got to do x y, and z but you have to command respect. We have to actually go up to the American Values we project. Things like immigration formally and refugees from syria, we have accepted 355. Its like the statue of liberty doesnt exist. Charlie the third option seems closer to what the Obama Administration or the president has articulated. Ian bremmer i dont think so. I think the president has articulated all three of these over the past years in different times, and i think hes confused a lot of people. I think obama has had very good tactical foreign policies and very bad tactical foreign policies. I dont think there has been a coherent strategy. And certainly if there has been one, it has not been articulated sufficiently well that any of our allies understand it. When you and i talked to foreign ministers, they all say, what are you guys doing . So for example on russia, i dont think russia has been an independent policy. I think that has been to the american saying, we will punish you and isolate you and get out of the ukraine or we will be very tough. We certainly havent punished that chinese for doing business with russia. There is inconsistency there. We have been tougher than a lot of the europeans have them. Charlie who have we punished . Ian bremmer we have punished putin. Charlie is it working . Ian bremmer its not working for us. We want them to change, they are not changing. Charlie does that make us look not strong . Ian bremmer of course it does. When we set red lines and say we are committed to doing something or else, and when putin has consistently accepted else, and not only that, but when every emerging market in the world says we are going to do more business with russia, we have said we are going to isolate the russians. When i think about isolation, i dont see the conjugal visits with the chinese and the turks and everyone else that have been going on. Theyre doing much more business with them. Our response will be, where going to isolate you. Thats not credible. Meanwhile putin has not acted as if hes prepared to accept the minsk agreements. Charlie the last policy light was george h. W. Bush . Ian bremmer in terms of global strategy, yes. I would say that is true. In terms of the last time we thought president who really had a consistent and coherent global Foreign Policy view. I think when Hillary Clinton was secretary of state, she articulated strategy reasonably well. Unfortunately charlie was that her strategy or Barack Obamas strategy . Ian bremmer i think it was, but you might be forgiven for thinking it wasnt. As a terry estate, she was moneyball. She said, you dont criticize. Charlie she was hawk, too. Ian bremmer i dont know. Her role in libya was going there with the most limited force possible. Charlie theres a small copy out. Who recommended doing a lot more than Hillary Clinton . Ian bremmer the russian reset. Charlie but the russians got upset by libya. Who was saying do a lot more than the administration was prepared to do . Charlie at the time, Hillary Ian Bremmer at the time hillary was hawkish. But if you compare her to george w. Bush, you would not call her that. When you look at hillary, and you compare, you look at economic statecraft and saying im not going to preach human rights to these people because theyre bankers, her effort to engage in russia reset. Ian bremmer the russia reset, it went badly. Im suggesting there was the beginning of a moneyball strategy. Interestingly, now that she is a candidate, tpp was hers and she is like i dont know if im in favor. Charlie if we dont do that, the Transpacific Partnership what will happen around the world, what will they think . Do they think we are setting we are not aware reality of trade . Ian bremmer they will think the incompetence and immobility of our political system in washington, and the weakness of our president , requires them to hedge. That he could not get the single biggest piece of Foreign Policy that he has been working on his administration arguably for the entire six years of the first two terms. That he cant do that. That the japanese, the world worlds thirdlargest economy, that their singular Foreign Policy issue is to get tpp done. The americans cannot make good on that. Charlie that reminds me of two things in the last week. Ian bremmer i think it will happen. I think the chinese made a mistake. They pushed on the Infrastructure Bank before tpp. As much as the republicans hate obama, they hate china more. Strategically, i think the republicans all get on board. Its going to be a tight vote. Not as Many Democrats as you would like to see. Because of concerns on labor. Charlie are they legitimate concerns . Ian bremmer of course they are. On the agricultural side, we will do fine. If you ask me why, its because a lot of the jobs are not in the u. S. But they will be imported. Charlie is this an either or proposition and the level of labor practices . Ian bremmer labor is broken for lots of reasons. Automation is a big part and globalization. But the tpp is not just economics. About it is about the chinese having a global strategy. They are the only country with. With a global strategy. We dont have one. They are spending over a trillion dollars to align countries. When i see Elizabeth Warren and others write about tpp really thats purely from an economic lens, its like they have never done political classes in their lives. You have to focus. Charlie do the majority of people believe that George Osborne is right in terms of the economic policy, the austerity that he brought to Great Britain . Did the majority of people believe paul krugman is right . That that really had nothing to do with it. Ian bremmer i think there is an ideologically divide. They have a much bigger problem with the middle class. That probably need more transfers. Charlie social inequality and economic inequality. Heres what is interesting for me. Give me your assessment of bill clintons Foreign Policy. Ian bremmer i think it was in some ways as nonstrategic and reactive as we see from his successor. I think bill clinton inherited the soviet union has collapsed. We have won, so we dont actually need a global strategy. It is a question of taking the manager of being the worlds great power. Charlie what happened and what could we have done . Many people see that as a crucial time between while the berlin wall fell in 1989. Between that time and you know. Ian bremmer who lost russia occurred under his administration. It sounds quaint compared to today. Charlie that was the time we could have done what . Make them not feel like they had to get on their knees and bow . Ian bremmer engaging the russians in a real way where you dont say one thing out of one side of your mouth and then another on the other side. Whether its on nato enlargement, missile defense, or the baku pipeline. I remember people in washington in the Clinton Administration had bumper stickers that say happiness is multiple pipelines. Russians look at that and say this is our backyard. You want to take the energy out of there and you want the influence to go someplace else. In retrospect, they said americans were playing a zerosum game while we are in collapse. The unfortunate thing is the ability to work with russians was a real opportunity after the soviet union collapsed. Today it is completely gone. Charlie because rather than those three choices, lets go by and say what would be the best american foreignpolicy. Lets start with east asia. China. Ian bremmer china. One thing i would say about china is, i believe the chinese are not trying to particularly threatened the americans militarily. They recognize they do not have the ability to compete anywhere outside of their immediate backyard. In their backyard, they will occasionally shake the branches, but if they get whacked back unless it is taiwan or hong kong, they back off. Americans actually responded well to china on japan. The chinese japan relationship is much better than a couple years ago. We came over and said, this is a key ally and we are going to treat contested territories consistent with the u. S. The americans have the ability i think we did. I think on the South China Sea issue, americans are saying we are going to send other ships over there and contest the chinese in building these artificial reefs. Charlie how do we build the relationship . How do we create confidence . Ian bremmer we dont have highlevel summits. Its clear the u. S. China relationship is that most important in the world. You had true summitry with the soviets, and we do not like each other on all issues. That is the kind of effort that is required to actually get the americans and chinese to work on anything. On areas where we dont agree, we have to coordinate much more effectively with allies. We cant do it cyber by ourselves. We need the japanese directly in all those conversations. We need multilateral support. Charlie isnt that one of the things barack obama has articulated in his foreignpolicy . We live in an age where we must find multilateral solutions, and we must work with other nations. It is not just america cant go it alone. He perceives that as the reality. Ian bremmer i perceive that as a reality. I think allies perceive that is something he talks about but has not followed through on. Charlie and doesnt listen . Ian bremmer he listens pretty well. They just think after he listens he does whatever he wants your it the tpp could be undermined by congress. Allies in asia feel like he waited way too long to make this a big deal. He almost lost it. They dont feel he is as committed as he needs to be. I think obamas willingness to be multilateral, especially in a world where our tools for foreignpolicy influence are becoming more unilateral. When you think about drone strikes or cyber surveillance, or sanctions or the use of the dollar as a stick. The weaponization of finance. Many of the tools we used to project our force are increasingly unilateral. Thats not obama, thats just technology. That does mitigate against the desire to always engage multilateral with allies. Charlie sanctions have been multilateral. Ian bremmer some have and some havent. Against iran, success thus far of multilateral sanctions. If the deal gets done, that will absolutely be a major feather in obamas cap. But there havent been many of those. Many successes have been unilateral. Charlie where is john kerry and in all of this . Ian bremmer he was in israel palestine for 18 months. Fourfor reasons i cannot fathom. Right now, he is. Charlie a fair amount of time in iran. Ian bremmer that has been good for him. He has worked those bilateral relationships extremely well. I think on russia, he has been pretty ineffective. Charlie even though he has had a reasonably Good Relationship with the prime minister. Ian bremmer its ok, its not bad. They handed him potatoes last week. Charlie as long as they come up with a creative solution for syria. If they are so good. Ian bremmer theyre not that good. Charlie i thought you said he was the most creative foreign minister. Ian bremmer he has been strong, he has done things putin wants them to do. I would not want to have that portfolio. Charlie so china, we gain more cooperation, we need to be firm. The president would say, i hear you, but we are done on that. Look at the record. Ian bremmer i mentioned highlevel summitry. I think the aip was a big mistake. I think we either join ourselves along with the brits and japanese so we can say it is multilateral. We did not do that. That was a mistake. I think if tpp gets done, given the usjapan relationship is better and u. S. India relationship is better, asia ends up the part of u. S. Foreign policy that is probably the most successful for obama as a legacy for him. Interestingly. Even though they dont have Anyone Running asia anymore. Charlie except if they get the iranian deal. Ian bremmer for me that would be number two after tpp. 40 of the worlds gdp. Really aligning. It will matter longterm. Iran is not a big deal. Charlie not a big deal for the u. S. . Ian bremmer its a much better deal for iran. I think it is hard to implement. The u. N. Inspectors will not be as strong as wed like. The iranians will cheat. When they cheat the arbitration measure will be argued over. We will have unnerved and weakened relationships. But i would still senate because i would still sign it if i was there. It is a win, because oil prices go down. Charlie hurts the russians. Ian bremmer hurts a lot of people. Because we are the big reducers. Big producers. It also means it opens up iran over the long term that makes the more aligned with the west. And finally, because i think longterm the United States wants to have a more balanced relationship between iran and saudi arabia. Charlie and the saudis realize it. Ian bremmer they absolutely know that. Thats why the king did not show up. Charlie you can express peeking a lot of different ways. My argument is, a message. In a lot of ways you can send a message. Ian bremmer but if you are putin, you show that by making you wait for eight hours. He had a phone call with obama. They spoke directly. Im sure he told him. I think the symbolism is important because as you mentioned, the saudis understand that u. S. Relations or the interest between the countries are splitting apart. The saudis worry about iran more than anyone else. Ian bremmer not just things like yemen and iraq, but even bahrain and eastern europe. Charlie that we are naive and cant be counted on, and we somehow believe that iran and become a better nation. Ian bremmer look at today. Word of the day today is ramadi. Absolutely. Youve got the shia mil