Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Charlie Rose 20160629 : vimarsana.

BLOOMBERG Charlie Rose June 29, 2016

Heightened Britains Opposition Labour Party has split into warring camps and already half of David Camerons cabinet has already resigned. Boris johnson has attempted to provide reassurance for the telegraph newspaper and on monday morning, to the press. Theyve said reassuring things to the market. Budgetlear now that fears are over. Pensions are safe. The market are stable and i think thats all have good new. Charlie mr. David cameron who plans to leave office in october said he would leave it to his successor to set in motion britains eu exit. Michael gove has left open the possibility that a second referendum could take place, however in an address to Parliament Today David Cameron said there must be no doubt on the result. Of course, when i go to the European Council tomorrow, i will report on the decision of the british people and nobody should be in any doubt about that. I think it is important that we set off on this path of exiting from the European Union and build as much goodwill as possible on both side. Charlie in a joint statement, Germanys Angela Merkel and other leaders urged britain to make a swift exit from the e. U. Joining me now from london, the editor of the Financial Times david sanger of the new york , times and greg ip of the wall street journal. Here in new york with me, john cassidy of the new yorker. First i go to ronald in london. Tell me what happened today that we should take note of . Today you had the Financial Market reckoning. A further dive in the value of sterling against the dollar and the yen and the euro. You saw also a big selloff in equities, the banks being hammered and then just right after market close, the u. K. Triple topnotch grade. S p downgrades us. This is the beginning and its what a lot of people predicted but im afraid many other who others who voted leave and campaigned for leave, the people said they are fed up with the experts. Charlie any left on the part of those in london that believe they can revote . Theres lots. More than three Million People have signed a petition saying that they want a second referendum. We have some of the leading advocates who voted leave and campaigned for leave say they now have buyers remorse but David Cameron made it clear theres not going to be a second referendum. Were out and now we have to figure out our relationship with the European Union. Charlie david, beyond the economic aspects of this and relationships among nations and relationships with the European Commission and the commissions relationship with everybody whats the impact in terms of , geo political struggle . Theres the british relationship, of course, with the e. U. But there are so many interlocking and interdependent other elements of britains relationship. Obviously its a member of nato. 27 members of the e. U. It is a key member of many other international groups. And i think that the big question being asked here in washington, to what degree does britains influence decline there and how does that hitter that influence the United States . Of course in washington everybody or everything comes back to what does it mean for us, right . So the concern is that the relationship, the special rhythm with britain is more than a phrase that goes back to roosevelt and churchill. It also connotes the fact that britain was often the one that intervened directly with other european nations, that moderated their trade demands, that nudged them along to contribute more militarily, not only to nato but other elements and acted sort of , as the informal coordinator of intelligence, something that weve learned in the attacks of paris and brussels, europe is still having a hard time doing, sharing intelligence. So i think the larger question is if britain loses influence, if it is distracted for the next few years by this remarkable bit of political chaos, is it going to be able to play that role and is there anyone else able to step into it . The answer i heard over the weekend is pretty much not. The germans dont have the desire or capability to step out militarily. The french are frequently there is just too much sand in the gears between the way the u. S. Sees the world and the way the french do at times. Italy is too broke. The netherlands is too small. The list goes on. Poland is not ready to step up to that role. So i think there are many in washington looking around trying to figure this out and why john kerry is in both brussels and london today. Charlie the interesting thing about it i happened to be in , europe in the time in germany interviewing the president right after he left germany and had been there campaigning. He said youll have more influence in the European Union and you will do more for all of us if youre in the European Union. He hammered that time after time. Thats right and i was there in that remarkable News Conference with Prime Minister cameron and in my insulated way i thought he had made a pretty compelling case and probably had moved a fair number of votes within britain, despite the criticism that he was intervening in british politics. I guess the answer is we were all listening to that in london , not in the rest of the country. Charlie i know that you have to go, but why is Vladimir Putin cheering . Putin sees this issue is one as one that divides the europeans and therefore helps him, i think, as he reasserts his power. He is sending bombers on bombing runs along the coast, submarines underneath off the coast of many European Countries and i think he believes that europe is both divided and distracted is not going to be able to stand up to him as much. Charlie thank you, david. Why did remain lose . There is a number of reasons. They did not run a very Good Campaign to start with. Fear . E so it was about project fear is what it was called. Most people thought that would work. It did for a few months but in the last month or so of campaigning, the leave campaign turned it into basically a referendum about immigration and the influx of workers and syrians, etc. They used a lot of very misleading arguments but they themes to have worked seemed to have worked with the british public. There was a certain level of complacency on the part of the establishment. Despite some of the polls, showing that leaving was winning. Most in the media and political establishment thought that when it came down to it, risk aversion and sheer caution would persuade enough people to vote remain. Theyd get a lot of votes but lose narrowly. It seemed a lot of remain people stayed at home. There was a differential turn out high turnout in leave areas, low turnout in remain areas and it all added up to a lose. Charlie would you agree, lionel . Howlwould just, this was a against modern civilization. It is shocking in a country that is open, open trade. As david was saying weve been an american ally arguing for liberal and stabilization. That has thrown it into reverse. What is also tells you that the eliteolitan daily people in the big cities are out , of touch with the rest of the country. People who felt marginalized. Fear of immigration as opposed to real immigration. A lot of people who voted out actually were not touched by immigration. These constituencies, people who felt out of touch with the government voted leave. Is a lot ofy mind how people just feel, left behind by globalization. Weve tended to think, people in the big cities, a city like london with it Financial Center where we have lots we have 500,000 french People Living in london. Were comfortable with this. But other communities feel neglected, marginalized. The middle is being squeezed. Particularly after the financial crisis. This is a political lag of influence after the financial crisis and i think in that respect, there are lessons to the candidates, particularly mr. Trump, ahead of the november president ial election. Charlie speak to the Economic Impact to the Global Economy because of this. The first term, the shortterm impact is pretty obvious. Youve seen that in the decline of stock markets around the world. Its going a big hit to british growth. Weve already heard several Large Companies say theyre going to move jobs out of britain because theyre less useful there in a britain outside of the European Union. And theres going to be a spillover impact on the European Union. It is interesting that stock market have fallen more in europe than they have in britain. That is fear of what i call political contagion. You saw the netherlands and france use the brexit vote as a refund up for we should have a vote too. In france, the sentiment for leaving the eu is Even Stronger than was in Great Britain. The final point is the impact on the entire world. I think in a year or two well have worked our way there out shortterm impact on sentiment , the shortterm impact on the stock market, but we have talked how this is a reflection and point move away from globalization. If we have higher barriers to the move of goods and products, less free trade, that is ultimately a slower growing world. Charlie will that happen, though . In other words thats a very good question and what ive found interesting about brexit, its been a test for those of us as people tend to see what their priors were. If you were a liberal you saw it as a in globalization and the power of inequality. I thought it was interesting that within of the vote, you saw hours Boris Johnson, the former mayor of london and run of the and one of the leaders of the leave movement say no, this was not a vote against immigration. In fact, we still think that britons and europeans should be free to work in each others countries. Whether this will be the big turning point in globalization depends on what happens in the next three or four terms. Months. What are the terms by which britain negotiates it separation from the rest of the European Union. If it turns out that whoever replaces David Cameron tries to come back with something similar to what we have now, we may look back on this and say, perhaps this was not the big deal it seems like right now. But we do not know. And we dont know how election upcoming in germany and the netherlands, how they will respond. Charlie is Boris Johnson the next Prime Minister of Great Britain . I dont know. He is certainly a strong favorite at this stage. Watch out for louisa may. Soft spoken, and shes been she is a real hardliner on immigration. She has been warning for a number of years that theyre working many immigrants coming into the country, including the European Union, and something had to be done. Been the one in closer political touch. I would say one thing about gregs argument. I think its important to not draw premature conclusions but theres a big point here that this will not be resolved, this crisis, and a number of weeks or months. We do not know we wont know , what kind of british plan there is until the next british Prime Minister is chosen by september and then its going to take at least two years to negotiate a deal with the European Union. Whether theres 27 countries that are going to have a say. Charlie do you expect to see other countries take this path . Im not even confident britain is going to take this path. Charlie you are not . I am not. I think the chances of brexit actually going through is not much more than 5050 at this stage. Theres been so Much Movement in the markets and prominent leave people, the former editor of the sun, now he is having second thoughts and he is fearful of the future. I think if we had the referendum again this week it would go down quite heavily. Charlie the fact that David Cameron said he didnt want to have a part of that. Hes playing a strange game. He is trying to generate maximum chaos as far as i can see. He was very clever to resign immediately, because it basically said, we are not going to revoke article 50. He could have done what he promised and respect the will of the people, i will do it they say. He did not vote article 50. He said, i will resign in three months time. That threw the whole political system in chaos for three months and gave people a chance to sort of think again, i think. Im not saying i know whats going to happen. Its complete chaos but there could easily be a new general election. Could be a new leader on the general election. Burning on a remain ticket. Get a lot of support from the business community. I just do not think that this game is finished. Charlie do you disagree . John, i agree with you on so many things, but not this. Not quite. There is method in this supposed madness. The reason that David Cameron did not invoke the article 15 of the lisbon treaty is because that would be irrevocable. That would set in motion the chain of circumstances where we do withdraw. What hes done now is say right, im going to be Prime Minister for a while but now were not going to have a second referendum. He cant say that. There would be people in the streets. So what he has done is open up a gap. Listen to Angela Merkel of germany. She said, it is ok. It is up to the brits to decide when to invoke article 50. Be a period of reflection, a period of time where we work out what kind of deal we want. Meanwhile if the markets crash, if theres a reaction in recession in britain, maybe then people will come to their senses and say we need to have a general election or Something Like that where a new government , comes up with a new plan and john may be right we might ask , for our membership back. Theres a vote in ireland about the expansion of the treaty that governs the European Union. Theres a little bit of a negotiation to satisfy their concerns, the irish concerns, and they put it to a second vote and it passed. Thats one reason why you shouldnt leap to too many conclusions right now. I agree with lionel. Theres no way you can ignore the referendum. There was a vote for it. So, what i am saying its going , to unleash such powerful forces, that we really do not know where things are heading. Lets say that Boris Johnson wins the election and becomes the Prime Minister. Does he have a mandate now to take britain out of the e. U. Without a further general election . I think a lot of people in parliament, not just liberal democrats would say he needs to go to the country and get a mandate himself. The former Prime Minister said that in Parliament Today and David Cameron didnt knock him down so i think there is the , real possibility of another evenal election before we , of anotherle 50 general election in which case that would be a refund up on the result. Charlie if Boris Johnson is a candidate, there would be a real question about his leadership. Yeah, could he actually bring all the tory party with him. He would agree to a general election if he was up against jeremy corbyn. He could probably beat him hands down. If its a new labour leader, maybe he wont want a new general election. The one thing i can say, charlie, because i had the privilege so to say of working alongside Boris Johnson when he was corresponded for the Daily Telegraph in brussels, and the one adjective that comes to mind is elastic. Charlie what would be your definition of elastic in this case . Boris johnson will do what he thinks is to his interests and when it comes to saying one day from another it will be very , elastic. John or greg alluded to this earlier. Hes now saying this campaign wasnt about immigration, the vote wasnt about immigration. This goes completely contrary to all of the leaflets, the slogans, where they were deliberately playing on peoples fears of immigration. So one of the reasons that tories are actually saying that Boris Johnson would be the best leader for the labour party, caused theid cameron election, they know that they will have to move back and abandon all positions that they have had, so who can do that pinache . Most Boris Johnson. Most panache . Boris johnson. Charlie i saw something on a bbc that suggested that at eaton and oxford, Boris Johnson was a bigger shining star than David Cameron. He still hasnt gotten over the fact that he only got a second class honors degree. And David Cameron got a first class honors degree. Charlie at oxford. The competition goes that far back . Its got serious history. They got warm both of them form both of them and Boris Johnson believes he is more capable than David Cameron. He is ambitious and i believe having known and talked to him about his position on europe for a number of years that hes not antieuropean. He likes to ha

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