Ecb will announce the results of its first targeted Lending Program today to grace oneonone with axel weber. We bring you an exclusive. Government needs to establish trust into a sound fiscal and monetary operation of europe. To countdown. Election little under than one hour, the Scottish Referendum begins. A yes vote would see scotland breakaway from the United Kingdom, ending a union that has lasted 300 years. The head of the voting, what are the latest polls saying . Good morning, airline and john. Caroline and john. It a day they decided to vote tuesday in the more than 300yearold union . Is dark and misty. A little bit hubble bubble, toil and trouble. But for who, we should know by this time tomorrow. The latest polls that you referred to came out overnight in late yesterday in the business day. Two of them, one concerning exactly the same trend we have seen from three polls the previous evening. Aheadggesting the noes and the yes is at 48 , after you stripped out the undecided voters. The other polls showing things a little bit tighter than that. 51 for no and 49 for yes. By any definition it really is going down to the wire. The turnout could be spectacular. Some polls are suggesting north of 80 or 90 . 97 of the potential electorate have registered to vote, which is a phenomenal number by anybodys standards. But it really is stimulating. Overnight the campaigning has been continuing. Who has been saying what . The s p leader, the fiery nationalist leader here in scotland was telling his supporters to seize this opportunity. Hes trying to paint it as a onceinalifetime off her 290 opportunity. We had David Cameron this week talking about the possibility of a painful divorce, saying there could be no trial separation. Yesterday gordon brown echoing make bath, talking about when this is on, is it done, there is no going back. That is the message of the Better Together campaign. So it is decision day for scotland. Scottish residents and those who are resident here in scotland from the eu and the commonwealth will get to decide. Anybody from 16 years and upward. There are some interesting dynamics around the election which means comparing it to other elections are tricky. Voicesr of international cannot resist getting involved. Is spanish Prime Minister watching so carefully what is happening here. He says he has no sympathy with the independent. He said it is bad for the united a whole. Nd the eu as president obama and the white house saying they believe the u. K. Is an extraordinary partner for america in an unstable world. The latest of elements in the middle east, testimony to the instability of the world he referred to their. Angela merkel is making no contingency plans. She is making no plans for how things will change if the thirdlargest economy in the ee you were to split, and that is what is at stake here, of course. The celebrity world also getting involved. J. K. Rowling has been a longtime supporter of the Better Together campaign. She does not want to see an independent scotland. She has been reinforcing that message on twitter overnight. Andy murray, the wimbledon champion, he is a scott. He doesnt live in scotland anymore, he lives in england, so he is not able to vote, but he has weighed in with his opinion overnight, coming down on the side of the nationalist and supporting the independence campaign. We should know who wins out by this time tomorrow. Shakespearedose of for our early financial news. Thanks very much indeed. I like to think that scotland is not the only thing that is happening. I have an exciting life. They finished their twoday meeting yesterday, the september statement looked a whole lot like the july 1. Ates wont rise until considerable time after qb ends. The question is still, what on earth is a considerable time even mean and as janet yellen even know what it means . Have a listen to the fed chair herself. No mechanical interpretation of what the term considerable time means. Repeatedly, the decisions that the Committee Makes about what is the appropriate time to begin to raise its target for the federal funds rate will be dated and. Forheres my bottom line you, caroline. Nobody knows what a considerable time even means, not even janet yellen. I listened to the whole press conference and had a headache by the end of it. Greenspan used to say, if you think i was clear, you probably misunderstood what i said. She avoided everything she was said to meet she has unemployment is still a concern, the labor market is still a concern. Things, the side of market reacts to that and suddenly you are seeing Interest Rates rising that much faster than they did. Janet yellen has come out in letsst and said that bring up the dots. Have a look at these dots. Its where they think Federal Reserve rates will be in 20152017. 1. 375 . At a rate of that is higher than when they put these forecasts out in june. You dont know which dot is which official. A guest. Probably have the big thing here is, look at the dispersion. You have some at the fed thinking rates will be near zero in 2016 and someone there who thinks rates will be near 3 . The market wants something because the markets ran away with these dots and drove the market higher. 1. 5 which get to would mean five rate rises next year. That would be six rate rises if they are sticking to this medium. Quite some people at the fed would like to do that slow and gradual thing. Talking about another central bank, the ecb is going on a new pass today. How much do we think of these new targeted longterm refinancing operations that will be taken up . The money went into bonds and severn debt. This time, mario draghi would like this to go into the real economy. The issue for him is maybe it wont. Is, youre not going to get penalized for that. It wants that to happen, but will it . Beyond that, what is the money going to be used for . Going to take things over to switzerland for you. Heading to the zurich where manus cranny is standing by at the grand hotel. Im told it is very beautiful. It makes very interesting reading. Youre right, im up in the hills of tides zurich. Family about the officers getting together. Terms,ionaire wealth there are 155 billionaires in the world. Their wealth globally is 7. 3 trillion dollars. Everything you and johnny just talked about, we had that conversation with axel weber. You will hear that through programming. That hasgreat rotation started. People are moving out of fixed income into equities. That is the essence of my conversation with axel weber. Its about reassurance. I like axel weber because he brought everything back down to the issue. Were all a little benign about our perception of volatility. Risk,re is the ukraine there is really a lot of risk out there. Investors may be a bit too benign about the volatility in the market. We are seeing my terry policy globally will diverge between the u. S. And europe and also between the u. S. And japan. Well see more we will see more volatility and movement in Exchange Rates. Thats something we havent seen for a long time. Eventually notat just emerging markets but even established economies will see some Major Movement in the Exchange Rate. Weve seen in over the last four weeks with the euro and there is even more to come. Momentum continues into 2015 and beyond. Its not just the dollareuro. Lets talk about another current we pair which in our view, focus on two. The other central bank that is likely to move early, you can question why they might move earlier than the fed, is the bank of england. Mark carney has given an indication that by spring, and whether that means february or another month, but by spring, getting into the normalization phase for Monetary Policy is great. The other is the Swiss National bank, which has moved to a floor for the swiss franc relative to the euro. If you are to ask me about another currency pair, one of the Central Banks that was the european is central bank. Another is most likely going to be the Swiss National bank. Always good when youre interviewing takes you to the heart of the markets. Stay with us for the next hour because we talk about the ecb and what mario draghi actually needs to make that work. You stress tested banks, that is one thing. The one thing that is not being stress tested as all the litigation risk in banking. That is what europe needs. They tuned over the next two hours, we have great conversations. I saw a sparkly ring, manus cranny. He likes a Little Jewelry when he is out in the field. Follow manus cranny on twitter and join us as well. Lets continue the conversation. The next guest says forget about the fed, the only thing that matters is the economic data. Our guest joins us next. Stay with us. Welcome back to countdown. Lets talk about the fed. Our guest now. You have explain this to me. How does the fed gets stuck higher and get the dollar higher at the same time . What was in the message yesterday . The clear message is that the fed needs Critical Mass for strong u. S. Data. Then they can go faster. Equity markets like that because they still get when the fed starts hiking, they will get very strong data in the dollar like that because whats good for equity markets is good for the dollar, and you get faster rate hikes when they do start which is good for the dollar. Somehow they strike a delicate allens. Our user price were seeing such a pace of Interest Rate hike . It seems to be faster than the market was anticipating. Havent the bond yield started to rise that much faster . The question is will the fed start early and go slow or start later and go faster. It seems the latter is what will actually happen. There was a lot of discussion whether the fed would keep the language for a considerable time. They kept it, but i think the fed was concerned, they didnt want to surprise markets are trigger the markets care we got a year ago when they announced it for the first time. She focused a lot on the data. Defendant dated dependent, not timedependent. Makes no sense anymore. The problem is for them as well, they dont know what a considerable time even means. It doesnt mean much, honestly. Everything the pins on data. We never saw consistently strong data. August employment was much lower than expected. That was the only negative some rise. All the other surprise was to the upside. Fed would feel much more confident that the tightening jeopardize their recovery. Even though have longterm above where still it was during the financial crisis, this is what janet yellen was really worried about. It is a little bit controversial. Its theconcern but job of fiscal policy, active labor market policy, and many argue the fed is the only dog in the room that cannot take a decision on the unemployment problem. To the extent that the fed can up to an extent the fact that theyre telling us that they will start hiking rates late but they will go faster, they do keep an eye on inflation expectations. In what month will they see rates drop . In june, and then if they are strong they will do it almost every month. We will talk about another Key Central Bank with a very different set of policies right now. That is after the break. We get theack, results of the first auction today. Mario draghi would like is money to be used for small and Medium Enterprises across the eurozone. Are the banks going to use it for that . Not really. The thresholds are quite general, so the banks can use a lot of the money for socalled we expect the banks to be cautious and more so in december than september. In 2015 there will be much room to grow so the banks will borrow less next year that it might lead to more credit. What does that number look like today . September andoth december to be 260 billion. For september it might be less than 100 billion but it will not be such a big surprise. Find themselves between it isber and december, if a number well below 100 billion, that will be a surprise. Pointb will meet at some to he is promising a trillion euros to be injected into the system. Its also the Asset Backed Securities and we dont learn how they will do that until october. Ecb meeting is its serenely important. This is when mario draghi explains how they will reach the target of 1 trillion and how long it would take. How exactly its going to be and how theyre going to develop the market, who will guarantee it . All these are important questions, and what happens if they dont meet the target . Likely yes because it will increase the chances they will consider alternative measures. Thank you. Thank you for coming in and joining us. We were bring you more insight into what may be World Biggest share stale share sale, alibaba. Stay with us. We are back in two minutes. To welcome back to countdown. That was a stronger dollar. The interpretation of the forecast for rates a more hawkish time driving the dollar higher across the board. Check out euro swiss. There is going to be a big talking point. 0 against it is 1. 2 the euro. A lot of people talking about the Swiss National bank responding. A little bit less pressure. We are at 1. 21 against the euro. Meetsiss National Bank today. Will they go negative . A lot of people talking about that. Hour to go before voting begins in the Scottish National referendum. Will scotland break away from the United Kingdom and this is a union that lasted more than three centuries. A bid to win undecided voters. Supporting Syrian Rebels fighting Islamic State extremists. The bill will be used to train and equip Syrian Rebels. The fed has stuck to its alleged to keep Interest Rates news at near zero even as unemployment rates and inflation approaches the central bank target. The labor market has yet to fully recover. Janet yellen said he could take the fed to the end of the decade to reduce its 4. 4 trillion Balance Sheet with levels more consistent with normalized hollis he policy. Lets talk about ukraine as violence continues. The ukrainian resident is working for closer ties with europe. Why achieving peace in the region may take longer than anyone wishes. Difficult to speak about lasting peace. We have good news avenue of ceasefire. That is when we can stop the number of the scale of violence and the number of and i am not optimistic that we have a project of peace. We have two big cities in the hands of separatists. Have a dramatic situation in some eastern regions. We have a situation in crimea which is part of the Russian Federation illegally against international law. I think we still have a question mark as to what to do. I am afraid that his plan is to as a zone ofine interest in this destabilization will continue. Not much with so much was military measures but he will try to destabilize the situation in ukraine permanently. Deal with the Huge Corporation story. Alibaba on track to break the record for the worlds biggest ipo. For more on the Country Company on its valuation we are and a from hong kong chief china strategist. We know how big this ipo will be. Talk to me about risk. Keylieve that investment in industries such as telecoms and the internet in china is prohibited. How is this being taken by the chinese authorities when Foreign Investors should not be able to invest in Key Industries . Are rejected industries. People bypass this regulation by using a structure so investors can own a piece of earnings of the company but not the piece of the company. There is a key difference there so there is a risk of putting money into this kind of structure. So far Many Companies listed in the u. S. , they have been using the structure and so far so good. There has not been too much of an incident going on when people put money into that structure. How big is the risk investing structure . Risk . Is my money at theoretically it is but because there is no big precedents involved and ali baba using the structure to bypass forregulations, in essence investors to participate in the ipo. I would not say at the moment it is too much of a risk involved and also remember the cause of the size of the ali baba and the Market Status of the company it theuite unlikely for company to be engaged in anything that is detrimental to investors benefits. Alibaba is a phenomenally huge ecommerce growth story in china. Its cards quite carefully. It will be a huge ipo, potentially the biggest in history. 168 billionf dollars. That is cheaper than where facebook tried to price itself and the rivals such as tencent a nd baidu. They incautious so they can invest even bigger . The company under prices underpriced itself. The pricing range has been afted up a little bit after welcoming reception of the ipo. At two yearsook later using the earnings, you see this company at 20 to 30 times p p e. That pricing at a relatively conservative valuation would give you the better reception and even the first week performance after listing. Amazing. Bas growth is we can see that it will keep ramping up and we are expecting d doinginese online an more mobile purchasing. This is the story of the chinese outside of the country as well. Give us a sense of scale, how big could this become . It is already bigger than amazon. If you look at the gross merchandise volume it is already bigger than amazon and ebay combined. Ands 1. 6 trillion yuan takes 90 of the traffic. It is relatively large. If you look at the domestic Chinese Market, it is the younger faster growing market and has a lot of potential. I would say that the company would be better off focusing on the Chinese Market before expanding. We are seeing a small e