Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20141205 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown December 5, 2014

France Business Leaders get together to push a positive message of the economy ful. Quotes welcome to countdown everybody. 6 00 here in london. Speak to newsmakers from bmw would car world, cars as easy as a oneway bike trip. Is a big day for fiat. The king ofting spain. The European Central Bank Governor refrained from quantitative easing in the eurozone but pledged to reassess the situation early in the new year. With inflation at a fiveyear , will action come too late . Here is what he had to say. Maybe they will start doing qe, but it will be too little, too late. , i think this would be over two years. They also have the right fiscal policy because qe works in the u. S. And u. K. Because we have monetary stimulus and you have backloaded fiscal consolidation. , they call the slowdown, started doing fiscal tax increase. You need to have fiscal stimulus in the eurozone. This will not be enough, you have to have demand. This will come too little too late. Today is at dartmouth professor of economics. Thank you very much for joining us. Too little too late says nouriel roubini. The way alike to characterize this, the bank of england started to cut rates in october, 2008 and it took us into march, 2009 to work out quantitative easing. This is six years and counting, worked out. You must be joking. We have deflation, we have overly tight monetary stimulus. What are you doing . And try to push their currency down, what do you think everybody elses going to do . The United States mint a clear they are watching the currency. Have first the plunger a really long time ago. Definitely too little too late. You a big believer in the values of quantitative easing . On tanktaking action Balance Sheets. Cutting Interest Rates and doing qe. I have the interview that bernanke did and they asked what would the point have been if the fed had an active. Counter factual is huge. In some sense, you can look at there is somefull deflation coming. 10 countries are in deflation are very close to it. This is not good. The stimulus was hugely important. There seems to be Division Within the ecb. We intend rather than expected Balance Sheet to grow to early 2000 level. They cannot agree on that. Imagine these. Firmse very competitive and trying to adapt the circumstances of the world. There are few people who disagree and we cant act. So, what happens from the business world, the week go to the wall. An interesting way to describe germany. The ecb talks about not needing consensus. Is that really true . You sat on the policy committee. Do they need consensus . I dont know if they need consensus. I was on my own. I think they need to learn and realize that you need to act. What is the danger of not acting . See, what aree the dangers of acting. The positives there are so strong. Are found to be not as palpable. That is the point. Morertainly would have got bang for the buck. For goodness sake, act. Was it like being on your own . You are obviously restricted by this. Not really. Being the it like sole flag bearer for the viewpoint within the committee . Important,is very you have somewhat different views. The bank of england has the census now. Are you right or not . That is the question. For you right . Im not going there. President , 1. 2 billion euros is how much she bid only last month for portuguese assets herself. She wanted to buy Portugal Telecom holdings with actually is the Holding Company that owns a Minority Stake in the whole of oi. This could have been a way of luring the telecom shareholders. Actually, i dont want to hive off my portuguese assets. I want to get cash right now and they want to stick and my overall interest. Along, does get rid of the portuguese assets and focuses on brazil, she no longer wants to be buying into portugal Holding Company. You have got to reach 7 billion. We know qualitative easing. It wasnt going anywhere. The numbers just get bigger. Caroline hyde with the latest on that Portuguese Telecom story. One of many we have been talking about. Join us on twitter. Follow danny, follow anna, follow me. Tell us what you think about what danny is saying. Go one. Or whatever else. To follow us all on twitter. Give us your twitter handle. Todays company news, very quickly. A 1. 2 billion round of Equity Funding to boost International Expansion for uber. That gives the company a 40 billion valuation. And half billion dollars in funding since its debut in 2009. The chief executive says the company is in nature menace growth period and could create more than a million jobs worldwide next year. Capital levels exceeded requirements. 9. 2 ommon equity ratio was , which is above the 7 required by the Portuguese Central Bank and 8 required by the ecb. A lenderes how well can install losses. They were once the biggest lender by market value. The central bank moved most of this assets. The bank scrapped a shareholder vote on bonuses after signaling they might fail the stress test. After theurged lenders said it would be appropriate to ask shareholders to vote at this time. The chief executive would not be surprised if the bank didnt meet the minimum Capital Requirements come december the 16th. The cooperative a collapsed after having to raise about 400 Million Pounds to plug a hole in its Balance Sheet. Minutes past 6 00. We will check on the health of the Worlds Largest economy, u. S. Payroll numbers and the unexamined rate i do out. Than 200,000re jobs in november which would make it the strongest year for payroll gain. Thats head back into the conversation. So, the job creation machine in of 10. , mark set they have been eight or nine, doing extremely well. The reality in the u. K. And the u. S. Is that there is still no wage growth. We have seen unemployment falling, the way i characterize rate is aemployment statistic telling you what is happening in the late market. One of the big things in the u. S. , we have masses of inactivity. People left the labor market and the big question is permanently gone or are they really working to take jobs . My view is the cyclical kind, masses of an activity will come back to the labor market once there are real jobs there. That is why theres lots of pressure on wages. The numbers i will be looking at is what has happened to wage growth. Said thelen has numbers she will focus on his wage growth. Will it get anywhere in the 3 , 4 range. The time and cost index shows private wages and salaries moved period. E last we have to remember that these numbers are a little noisy, so we can have little blips but a number of 2 is approximately what we have seen for the last five years or so. Few months with the rates are around 3 before the federal act. We will be watching the inflation rate and watching what happens there. The chances of a rate rise are very long way away. Until we see wage action in the u. S. Lets focus on one of them, the outcome of all of this will be wage growth and i will be focused on that. When will the fed cut rates . This depends on how the data looks, if we start to see really strong wage growth coming, then we will see talk about rate rises. You will take talk about the u. K. Economy. He will cast his eyes over the statement happened a couple of days ago. Of thechancellor exchequer George Osborne outlined his statement this week and it seems to be leaving some of the heavy lifting on the economy to mark carney and the bank of england. Lets bring in our guest, Dartmouth College professor of economics. Wages crucial in the u. S. Conversation, crucial to the u. K. We have had numbers in the last 10 days or so which suggests that the earnings we have a this point have been severely upward buyers. It appears earnings in small forms are much less than we thought. There is fertile evidence of wage growth, particularly the national statistic. The evidence appears to be that their real earnings are vomiting. They have very very low rages. Real wages are down, they are down about 10 . That we havehing an expected. Going forward, how do you restore these peoples standards of living . Little or nothing to say that will happen. A productivity puzzle. It is a really big puzzle. Essentially, the forecasters are assuming it gets sold. We dont get told how it gets sold. Growth inbig employment and relatively little growth in output, so the output for had hasnt moved. It per capita is below where was at the starting level. It is a major puzzle. This depends upon the view that that gets sold. Forecast and that looks pretty disastrous. Low levels of output and gdp continuing to rise. So, we dont really know how it gets sold, governments keep saying it will get sold but i would say it was like, i havent got it 10 so lets just assume one. We are assuming that this recovery looks like other ones. If you look back at the forecast, what theyve said is within 18 months with this return back to some pleasant trend and that never happens, it keeps getting pushed out. Every time the forecasters come in and say it will be back to where we were, that simply hasnt happened. At some point, you think that learning will take place and maybe we will not get back to that prerecession trend. It was probably unsustainable. This was a problem for central bankers. This is why you are saying that rates will stay low. Is that now a rolling target . The budget, can you say that . I think so. If we go back, the real standards of living havent risen. People are struggling with the earnings. How can the bank of england raise rates . Think what he would do to people who pay mortgages. Think what it would do to small firms that cannot get capital. It would raise the cost of the capital. Withf these people variablerate mortgages, it is hard to see how the bank of england can raise rates. This is a fiveyear rolling target. Throw oil into the mix. This has cropped up. Such big moves in the oil price. The boost to the u. K. Economy . Erhaps, weighing on inflation it has been a fall in the oil price but i will advertise. I like the bloomberg commodities index because it is not that we just see a fall in oil prices, to not the same degree in Commodity Prices. ,learly we are seeing inflation disinflation, inflation in various arts of the world. People are voting for rate rises. Inflation is so low, this is really quite remarkable. Stat each to out other. You have look back in history and you have got the stats of all stats. National institute has produced data showing us that this has been the worst recovery in 100 years but there is some great economic historians i have been talking to and i have two great statistics. This is the worst recovery in 300 years since the south sea bubble. Theres never been one that has taken so long and it is the worst in 650 behind the black death and the south sea bubble. A recoveryer seen like this. The recovery in 2010 was following the natural path of every recovery has done and then they just stopped it. This is the worst recovery in 300 years. , beat bad. Tanks for joining us. Beat that. Thanks for joining us. You might take a taxi but bmw would like to give you another option. We will hear more from Graham Greene after the break. Stay tuned. We will be talking to fiat from their factory in barcelona. Welcome back. Lets look at the Foreign Exchange market. We look at the dollar version. The dollar heading for the seventh weekly gain. It is up 1. 2 this week. Into the sevenyear high. The big number is the u. S. Jobs number. The u. S. Employers have made 230,000 jobs in november after hiring 214. 200,000 49 straight months. That will be the stat of the day. Corporate rank rob see. Seven weeks again. The firste ¥120 for time since 2007. Sam walsh spoke to bloomberg little bit earlier. He rebuffed the idea of a merger. A deal which will create the worlds biggest mining company. 2014 has been a tumultuous year for miners. Rio is the second biggest producer of iron ore. This is the lowest since 2009. An economic slowdown in china and the slump in demand has forced several miners to cut costs. Some think that this makes it right. They will not deflect his plan to get more cash to investors. U. K. Takeoverer rules. The potential. At the end of the day, it will be decision for the board, not for me personally. This,y, when you consider it would be a whole raft of things to look at. Point is very very easy. I think the key is the a greatty and also is product. How does this impact on your ability to sell cars in the u. K. . They said that for every one car , 32 cars are not. You having to bring out this type of product out of necessity because this is happening around you. How does it shake up . We are authorized in seven cities around the world including san francisco. When we find is that this is used more than six times a day so that six individual journeys can have been six individual cars before. The advantage is that you can pick up from point a and dropoff at point b. You dont need to worry about the journey home. This is a relatively young product in the market. London experience is very important, it is our first true megacity and i think we will learn about the dynamics of customer behavior. What we see is that they tend to be and a younger target audience. It is opening the brand up. We dont know whether those viewsses, those younger where times are economically easier. Model,ey stick with this will they prefer to do things this way . That is a long way in the future. That is very embryonic and we are gain experience all of the time. We are massively successful in the markets we are in. It gives us a real insight into the behavior. Theyre kind of journeys there making. They charge per minute. Thew do you compare to competition. It is very much customer choice. You simply pay for the time that you drive. I would allow you to use the car outside of the zone, if the car is an active on a much reduced rate. What were offering is an incredible value proposition, a previous service. You have your own space and a great car. How do you ensure the car from everywhere across the city . , will you be doing the same . The great thing is it is a partnership. We had to build great cars. You can see where the knee can track where the cars are. If you see it is part for time, then we will also move products. How are things going . We just talked about the wage growth in the u. K. , how will that play into how your business is performing . October is more than 9. 4 . We are enjoyed a lot of success. That comes from the exciting new products. General, the markets are very strong. Remaine Interest Rate to where they are, it will continue to grocery only. Thank you for joining us. Books and you can follow us on twitter. To join in the conversation. Tell us what you think about this new strategy. Do you like these . Give us your thoughts on all the news we are breaking today, big news from the chief executive officer of rio tinto. Coming up, well go live to paris as french Business Leaders gather for the bank of france summit. We are there with exclusive interviews. They never react normally. The numbers we should every day. I have no reaction. Is to fight and fight against in order to recover. Economy. Hat the french lets stick with the french theme. Business leaders are tired of criticism about their economy which has barely ground. The Largest Company to organize to fight back. The paris conference is aimed at showcasing strength in the your regions secondlargest economy. We are at this beautiful building in paris. This is boosting the image. They have barely ground. Economist. Hief , this is to reassess new stimulus measures for next year. , they will start buying this. A big shot. It takes time to do that. Growth,ices mean more this is a very big shot. They have to take time to see what happened. We should not expect any new measure before march. Before march next year. Fighting french bashing. The economy minister opened the conference yesterday and said that the french are afraid of what is your reaction . Looks and depends on what french youre looking at. Knows about youth unemployment which is about 35 . They know the budget is in trouble, they know the pensions might be in trouble. The state of the pension system, the labor market. Unions, political parties, parliament, they are very much more conservative. To convinceis not your opinion. We have very conservative trade unions who had negative reaction to labor markets. Unemployment numbers yesterday, 10. 4 in the Third Quarter, the employment numbers have actually risen every month. Do tothing france can fight unemployment . Profitability, the return on capital is half the average. This is a disincentive to invest and get more jobs. As long as you dont take the measures aiming at stimulating level goes back to normal , we have this massive underinvestment. Is the labor market really something that we can reform . If you dont reform the labor france,for 50 years in we have been increasing more than than productivity. It is just killing the profit margins. , the keep shrinking Companies Keep investing. This is coming from the labor market. This is 75 of the labor force. These people are very very well protected. They can get increases. The European Commission has given france annexed to three months to seek their budget. They expect to be at 1. 4 of gdp. Are these going to help . Issue is in the medium term. There is no way that you can correct this if you dont change the technology. They are saving money by small amounts. You end up with being able to cut spending. More to to do much much correct a look financing. You have the strategy of what the state can do. Many thanks. The chief economist from paris. Back to you. They tend to bloomberg, we will have more interviews throughout the morning including hub us chairman. Coming up, james bond is , that is secret agent our pick of the day. A 1. 2 billion round of Equity Funding. , more than double its valuation from june. They have a total of 200 dollars since his debut in 2009. The chief executive said the company is in a tremendous growth and could create more next year. Ion jobs the ban

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