Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20150219 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown February 19, 2015

We will bring you those as soon as they are released. Welcome to countdown. Coming up more from a bloomberg exclusive with mark zuckerberg. Well a social network is racing with the google to connect the world, there is room for the companies to work together. People need to be able to search and find information. Whether we work with google on that or others in all these other countries that is an important thing and i would love to work with google. We are getting some breaking news. The benchmark share index and in japan closes high. Where was manus cranny in may 2000 . We will bring you the answer to that question a little bit later. Pressure is mounting our top story is greece. Its european creditors need to strike a deal before the money runs out. The administration will submit a request for a sixmonth loan extension today, according to a government officials. The 240 billion euro bailout expires at the end of february. This week marks a Crucial Point ahead of that deadline. We are at a critical and sensitive point in negotiation. We are submitting proposals and we hope we will turn this corner which will give us the possibility of moving forward. Meanwhile, the ecb is upping the amounts available to greece but only by a small amount sending a signal that a political deal should be reached to halt capital outflows. Lets get to hans nichols in berlin. Hans, today is one of those defining moments. They have got to pull the trigger. What they want. If they submit a straightforward it could get approved by conference call. The problem is they are unlikely to submit a straightforward program to stay in the Bailout Program so the finance ministers and other finance ministers have made it so clear that they need to. As on bloomberg will said last night, solidarity is not a oneway street. The euro is more than a currency. We have always made it clear whether it was greece, ireland, portugal, or spain, that when countries are in trouble we show solidarity. Solidarity is not a oneway street. They are two signs of the same coin. Manus, documents released last night give us a sense of what they want to do. They want to change the primary surplus to 1. 5 it is supposed to be 3 for the year. That is one area where the eu seems like they are willing to give. But on privatization, they are not, and they want to slow down privatization. They want to take 1. 9 billion from the ecb. They also want to loosen their labor market forms. Reforms. If these are codified in the proposal that they submit today it is going to make it very difficult for the eu to approve them. Then we have this common sentiment out of jack lew that could put pressure. Hans, you just mentioned jack lew. In terms of this it is very interesting that we have had a focus in terms of what happens. The outcome of negotiations in the north of europe and greece. The u. S. Has weighed in sporadically what we have on jack lew is a call and a readout of the call. It was pretty harsh, the readout in some ways what mr. Lou was doing was the same thing mr. Osborne did on close doors behind closed doors. Eurozone officials are saying you havent properly calculated what might happen if reese leaves. If greece leaves. Mr. Lew was talking tough. Yesterday we were all expecting a proposal to be submitted to the eu. Greece delayed and today they say they are on track but until we have the proposal it cant have any sort of deal, let alone a discussion. Hans, thank you. We will wait for those News Headlines and will bring them to all our viewers. A bit of breaking news we will have the ceo a little later on so a conversation can be had. If you were a shareholder in swiss re, they are doing a billion euros on a buyback in the Fourth Quarter net profit. That is quite a bit below the estimate. It is the excuse me it is the cfo we will have. A dividend of four and a quarter swiss francs. A little bit of breaking news. That is the signal for the u. S. Federal reserve. Its a minister released yesterday that many officials showed a willingness to keep Interest Rates near zero despite gains in the labor market. All attention now to turns to the fed chair who gives testimony next week whether she will provide any clarity on the rate increase. Lets get a quick check on what was the highlight in the minutes. It has lingered below the feds 2 target for 32 consecutive months. The strong dollar has rallied. Top growth in the u. S. Economy was undermined. January cap the strongest three months of payroll gain in 17 years. Lets bring in Morgan Stanleys head of global affect strategy, hans redeker. Hans, this falls in line with what you were thinking next week you get testimony and that will be the freshest. I was reading this on the way in. These were a very benevolent set of minutes. Is that a Fair Assessment . Yes, but it is also in line with our thinking here at Morgan Stanley. The fed is in a situation where it couldnt take the risk to hike Interest Rates to think about it as a tail risk. If a federal deck did too early you would see the economy rolling over you would see Interest Rates of only 1 not a lot of ammunition standing ready to act against us. There would be a huge downturn in economic activity. You want to do it with 100 certainty to have escape velocity. That means the fed is going to stay here, you could call it behind the curve, they wanted to be 100 certain there is enough escape velocity. Of course, the question is the u. S. Dollar. It is a nominal differential. There is no change in that, so the question means that you cannot protect it. The longterm trend of the u. S. Dollar is going to stay very how did the fed the title of the piece did the fed just entered a currency war . They mentioned this persistent source of restraint on export. Has entered the currency war . First of all, do you notice that the dollar was mentioned . No. There is International Development. I think people are taking the shortcut and saying International Development means dollar but you have this demand weakness in other areas. The u. S. Economy, which is the closest to escape velocity, it is natural that you have a higher currency and a weaker other currency, including the euro. I think the fed is not going to enter what you call the currency war. It is too materialistic a verb. I think what they are doing is a natural investment in an environment of Capital Accounts open Capital Accounts. They are going to reconnect economies. When you look into u. S. Dollar going up at the same time we have seen bond yields declining. A year ago, bond yields were remarkably higher. That means we have seen debt related capital interest in the United States can you really argued that the u. S. Dollar has tightened financial conditions . I would say the answer is no simply because it has come down along way a significant decline. The savings are recycled into the United States and it triggers a high u. S. Dollar. It generates low Interest Rates for the United States for the time being. This is a domestically driven economy, so the low rate have an impact, support an impact on the u. S. Economy. I think the u. S. Is not entering the currency war. I think the u. S. Will accept an adjustment process that has been undervalued for 15 years. We are now seeing this undervaluation taken out of the market. Hans, you will stay with us this morning. That is the head of global affect strategy at Morgan Stanley. Join us on twitter. That is not necessarily the correct interpretation when we return, air france and nestle. We will bring you the numbers as soon as they cross. Welcome back breaking news from air france. Profit dropped in 2014 following the longest pilot strike in the airlines history. The airline had overcapacity en route to asia, latin america and africa. Earnings before interest otherwise known as as well is the cost from the strike fell to 1. 5 9 billion euros 1. 59 billion euros, in line with estimates. Little changed 24. 9 billion euros remaining burdened by this cost structure that remains uncompetitive with rivals. The french unit lost money last year because of the strike and it is renewing efforts to slash expenses to withstand the march of Lowcost Airlines in europe adult carriers in International Markets as well. Profit dropping last year following the longest pilot strike in the airline industry. Throughout the day we will bring you interviews you will not want to miss the air france cfo pfs will relapse she pierrefrancois riolacci. Caroline has joined us on said. They have had currency was what do you make of the numbers . Bang in line with expectations. A slight fall in sale, but only by 1 . We were also seeing for your organic sales that is stripping out the sales of foreign currency. Sales are up four and a half percent. And narrow target for the year. But everyone expected them to come under it. They are saying that for 2015 they hope to be back on track for 5 growth overall. Many were saying that this was going to be not the greatest result, but put it in perspective. We have got food prices falling inflation across the world the fact that they are still getting do still managing to get between 4 and 5 is pretty good. The chief executive is saying, we are building on good growth of the past year, and they say they still have their intrinsic strength, the footprint. We are not yet getting a feel you cant mention a Swiss Company without mentioning the bank. Any idea of how it impacts the company . They are in Constant Capital efficiency, about 5 . They arent giving us any forecasts, and he views relating to foreign currency. The enormous spike we have seen really doesnt affect the likes of nestle. 67 brands of bottled water what you mean 67 brands . 98 of this companys sales come outside. They have to bring it home and convert it to swiss banks all of their american sales which tend to be the strongest when you roll it back into swiss banks it is less room to your bottom line, particularly when you have weakening economies. Your pay and sales are going to have far less bang. Overall one has to dig into them a little bit more. But it seems to be in line with 4. 5 . 2015 is going to be similar. I will have to do the affects check back the swiss bank is now the weakest it has been. Im just looking through i have done i havent used the word currency but i would drill a little deeper. Thanks for running up those numbers stay tuned to bloomberg. Another conversation you wont want to miss. Currency did overtake the swiss franc the strongest since the dollar last year. Malawi kwacha is now stronger so says bloomberg. Lets take a look at some of the other stories today. The u. K. Defense secretary says there is a real and present danger. Destabilizing the Baltic States. Lithuania and estonia ukraines leader urged the deployment the United Nations in the countrys east to enforce a ceasefire. Government troops are now withdrawn from the Strategic Rail hub following one of the largest battles in the 10 month conflict. Expanding latest fundraising rounds the mobile car booking application. The company was valued at 40 billion, one of the highest evaluations for a Technology Startup. A luxury condo in manhattan could set a new record for the most extensive most expensive Residential Property. It is being put on the market for 150 million. So far the highest price ever paid for a condo in manhattan. Richard dreyfus has agreed to a fourhour miniseries about the financier according to a person at the Abc Television network. Submitted three say it will air around the end of the year. He was sentenced to 150 years in prison after his ponzi scheme collapsed. You can find more of that story at bloomberg. Com. Has ricky, head of global affect strategy at we just did the math. As i said swiss francs are at the weakest level jordan says we are ready to intervene. Where are we in this debate . Who was next . You meet are we going to see i think the risk for seeing Something Like that is fairly minimal. Many people are looking into denmark as very different to switzerland. The central bank people are mentioning the middle eastern situation. I think all this imperils the case of switzerland, and that currency effects are getting on the pressure. Lets talk about the euro. It has been remarkably resilient in the face of events in greece. It has hung around. What is going to undermine the euro versus the dollar . The greek situation is creating an environment where the market is not clean. You think greece may exit or may not exit. You have this event risk hanging out and you want to know in the case of greece staying in you will have a little bit of relief in the market. The question is do you want to be witnessing this relief in the eurodollar when you have it means that this tree, the leverage that comes is taking it to lower exposures and is creating a sort of stability. I think if greece is going to stay in, it is recreating a clean market. The event risk would no longer be there. On the other hand, the ecb coming into the market buying government bonds there is a shortage of bonds in europe. The impact that is going to have on yield levels it is going to be the delta, i can compare that to the situation in japan. When it comes to differentials, they are no longer driven in japan by japan caused you simply because they are at very low levels. The differential is driven by what is happening in the United States. I think we are getting into an environment where the euro trades like the japanese yen in the past. There is a lot of talk about equity inflow into europe and people say does that not support the euro . The interesting thing is that 95 of the flows into the equity market are the same as what we see in the yen. The yen was declining, but all that happened as falling money came into the market. How you translate that . Are we at the beginning of a much bigger and more dramatic move in the eurozone . First of all, the euro is going to win the race compared to the yen. The euro may decline over the next 12 months. Two, the big flow elements of the euro, namely that real money accounts are shifting away from the euro that european banks where you find their asset return is that 3 being too low you are exporting capital. This export of capital, that is going to keep the eurozone. Thank you. Coming up, the fare. They seem red flags what are they . Stay with us. 6 30 this morning in london. He says be careful because the fed does not specifically cite the dollar. They use the words source of restraint. This is the big trend. The bottom righthand corner, the dollar. The point about it is this. Dollar going down, Morgan Stanley would say it is a shortterm reprieve. It will going to the bond market. The dollar index is lower. The fed is patient. Concerned about currency. About the overall dynamics. They were not equipped for the fact they had their third best month. That next set of data, Janet Yellens testimony, will set up the bigger and more persistent and dominant move. The past 24 months, much more dramatic in terms of what you can see. Have a look at sterling. A little bit of an interesting move. Mccafferty, one of the members. He backtracked and called for he said the next step will be higher. Traders are paid the most amount in three years. That is ahead of the election. They are paid the most amount in three years to bet against this currency. Getting ready for the election. The top stories on bloomberg this hour, pressures mounting on greece to strike a deal before the money runs out. The administration will submit a request for a sixmonth loan extension today. Ernie to a government official. According to a government official. They say this marks the Crucial Point ahead of the deadline. We are at a critical and sensitive point in negotiations. We are submitting proposals and hope it will turn the corner which will give us the possibility of moving forward. The Federal Reserve has signaled a willingness to keep Interest Rates near 04 longer. Surprising investors. Many fed officials judged that it risks ranging from a stronger dollar to the prices increase crisis in greece had inclined them to keeping rates around zero for a longer time. The u. K. Defense secretary has warned there is a real and present danger that russian president putin will launch a campaign to destabilize all take states. Government Baltic States. Government troops are withdrawn, following one of the largest battles in the 10 month conflict. Ukraine was given an ultimatum. If soldiers want to leave, they should surrender and give weapons to russian forces. Put up a white flag and give themselves up. These were the conditions given to Ukrainian Armed forces. Lets get more about conditions in the ukraine. It sounds as if they are a deal a great deal of ambiguity has been created about how easy or strong this piece is. Peace is. The situation is there are isolated clashes taking place, but it has fallen under control of the rebel forces. What this means for the hes process, the Peace Process there are two schools of thought. One is president putin will be happy taking this hub. The other is this may embolden the rebels and their russian backers. You see that in the markets. Ukrainian yields are up. In moscow, the ruble gained significantly on the assumption the last thatll battle would mean that the ceasefire could take hold. How much risk is there that the Peace Agreement will fall apart . You look at the political theater merkel coming out and having and saying, we have an agreement. It is the big apple if it falls apart for putin. It is a big gamble if it falls apart for putin. The ceasefire has been violated sin

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