Caroline Benjamin Netanyahu claims victory in national elections. We are live in tel aviv with the latest. Manus today marks the First Anniversary of russias annexation of crimea. We will bring you exclusive coverage from the wartorn region. Mark welcome to countdown. I am mark barton. I am Caroline Hyde. Manus and i am manus cranny. Mark will Prime MinisterAlexis Tsipras exit the euro . We bring you the latest as greece runs out of cash and time. Caroline were getting some news from into text. Fullyear sales, 18. 1 billion euros. That is an increase of some 8 on the previous year. They are leading analyst expectations when it comes to give it to to ebitda. They also proposed a dividend. They said store sales rose 30 . The issue here is what is it when you factor in foreign currency changes . This is a country whose number three market was russia. The russian ruble has lost about 30 since june and they have about 400 shores 400 stores in russia. That is going to be impacting them. Now we are going to see a warmer brees going towards in the tax inditex. China is there secondbiggest market. When you look at the u. S. And the u. K. , you bring that home and it is bad for the euro. Mark manus said, i have a fact that will blow you away. After you said that to me, i went in search. Manus 60 of inditex is privately owned. The dividend that you mentioned came in at . 52 a share. This is what is sweet about inditex. Because it is six he owned, they tend not to do share buybacks. And they paid a special dividend every year since 2003. 25 of the payout. Mark i have been looking at the valuation of inditex. Shares hit a record high on monday pit the stock 600 retail index is up by 18 in the last 12 months. Only three retailers have outperformed in that time. On a valuation basis, it is trading at 36. 8 times earnings right now. That is the highest since 2002. The average over that time is 24 times. Analysts have a 12month price target of 27 euros. Is it expensive . Manus that is over 100 times on the nearly lets turn our attention to the oil market. West texas intermediate is falling for a second day and headed back as market prices plunged almost 42 in trading overnight. That is the lowest price in six years as stockpiles worsen. Global supply is on traders minds. All of this coming ahead of the fomc meeting. Mark chancellor George Osborne will set out the budget for the last time in parliament. He has promised no gimmicks or giveaways, but Lower Oil Prices could mean he has some money to play with. Anna edwards joins us from westminster. Good morning. Which policy areas are in focus . Anna good morning to you, mark manus, caroline. Very timely that you are talking about the oil price this morning. The weaker oil price will weave its way through a lot of what we hear from George Osborne. I have a list as long as my arm of the policy areas. Lets start with oil. We have seen a reduction in investment coming through in that sector. That is something that George Osborne has already said he wants to turn around. Expect some relief and policies to encourage investment in that part of the u. K. Help for low earners could also be on the table. We already know that the Coalition Government wants to increase the minimum wage. Could we see an increase in personal allowance . That is the amount of money people are allowed to earn without paying income tax. Attacks on the northern powerhouse. George osborne likes to talk about how we need to take the longterm economic plan and spread the benefits across the country. Expect various motorways to get a name check. All of that tends to go down very well with the tory party faithful. Other areas of focus multinational taxation, business rates. No paper tax returns. All of that could be in the mix as well. Mark the budget traditionally is about the economy and economics but with the election just a month or two away, 50 days is it more of a political budget . Anna you cannot ignore the politics at all. This is still an incredibly close race. A very timely reminder of just how close the political race is as we head towards may 7 and the general election. We have two polls that show conflicting indications about who would come out victorious. One putting labor ahead and one putting the tories ahead. Bear in mind what peter kells was saying over the weekend. He said that the number one priority for voters in his polling is help for the lower paid. He says the number one problem that the conservatives face is an image problem. They are seen as the party of the wealthy. All of that could be very important as we see George Osborne take the stand later. Mark he has promised no gimmicks, no giveaways. How much extra does osborne have compared to the autumn statement at the end of last year . Anna he said this is going to be fiscally neutral no giveaways. But he could have a gift from the office of budget responsibility to work with. They could between king their gdp growth forecast, taking those up around 20 over the next two years. Around. 2 over the next two years. They could be substantially bringing down there inflation forecast. All of that could mean that budget deficit forecasts are able to between by the obr. That could give him more room to play with. Maybe 500 pounds in terms of less borrowing required over the coming years in the next parliament. That could be the average of 42 bloomberg economics. We will be here all morning, bringing you a preview and the results of that budget. Mark we will see you later. Thanks a lot. And edwards from westminster today. It is lunch time as we launch Bloomberg Politics, u. K. Election 2015. It is a special Daily Program looking at the key issues into the runup to the u. K. Election and how they might affect the election. That starts at 11 00 a. M. London time here on bloomberg television. Manus as well as the budget we are going to be watching news from the Federal Reserve following the fomcs twoday policy meeting. We will bring you Janet YellensNews Conference live and in full at 6 00 p. M. Anna caroline from one election to another. Benjamin netanyahu has won a convincing victory to keep his job as Prime Minister. Lets go to tel aviv, where Elliott Gotkine joins us now. Netanyahu seems to have turned things around at the last minute. Elliott he does, though some would question the cost entailed in doing so. In the last 24 hours, not only did he reneg on a previous subscription to the idea of a two state solution with the palestinians he said that as long as he is Prime Minister, there will be no palestinian state. He also went on his Facebook Page and said you must get out to vote because there is a really high turnout of arab voters who have been invited to polling stations by left wing parties. Some people accuse him of racism. At best, it was clearly playing a little bit of politics. 99 of the ballots counted, Benjamin Netanyahus party is the biggest with 30 seats. The opposition, 24 seats. The united arab list, 13 seats. A real turnaround from when i went to bed at around 1 00 this morning local time. Caroline a long night for you. Six seats ahead. What happens now . It is all about the forming of the coalition. Elliott it is always about the forming of the coalition. What happens now is we should get official or unofficial results from parliament on thursday. They will then have a roundabout by march 25. They will present the official results to the president. He will ask all of the Party Leaders who they think should be Prime Minister. He will then go to that person and ask them to try to form a governing coalition. Given the Bruising Campaign that we have had these past few weeks, it is not impossible to conceive that the president might try to work out some way of getting a government of national unity. But Benjamin Netanyahu deals feels that he has the numbers to form a government. The kingmaker here is the former Communications Minister who managed to slash mobile phone prices by 90 of it he was once an ally of netanyahu but left his party because he was disgruntled with economic policy. If he decides to join netanyahu that would be game over for the opposition. Caroline Elliott Gotkine in tel aviv. Thank you very much indeed. Manus one year after russias annexation of crimea the economy the economic conflict in Eastern Ukraine is devastating. It has ravaged a system of commerce that has emerged complicated and unreliable. Ryan spoke with local officials about the russians and how ukraine would address their economic woes. Brian ryan the lines are getting longer at this soup kitchen. These people are not homeless. Ordinary folks need this food to survive. Tens of thousands of people now depend on handouts. Olga runs this place. She sees the elderly families, even minors who are not hitting fed getting fed. People are not living could they are just surviving. People are close to salvation. Ryan even a bowl of soup is becoming a luxury. Prices are rising faster than anywhere else in the world aside from venezuela. This applies him from one place and one place of alone. Only from russia. From the ukraine, we get nothing. Ryan russia is not only sending food. They ares they are showing up in person and making a spectacle of it. Alongside a convoy of humanitarian aid russia says they are supporters of the russian president. Tv broadcasters broadcast the message and good deeds across Eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, this official tells me america is sending military advisers to the other side. Humanitarian aid is humanitarian aid. Food is food. This is not politics. I think you should not mix them together. Ryan we are at a mine that lost dozens of its men in a tragic accident just days before could tagging along as they unload 50kilo bags of powder and sugar. This is the heart to mines campaign. In all the years i have been watching russia, this is one of the most vivid example of soft power i have seen yet. The local official complains ukraine is blocking the flow of vital goods to the separatists. For the record, ukraine says their offers of aid were rejected. With all the weapons and troops that kiev says russia is providing russias soft power is the academy of hypocrisy. Epitome of hypocrisy. Mark the u. S. Justice department could drop settlements. U. S. Prosecutors are investigating whether wrongdoing in currency trading means banks violated old deals. The eurogroup head raised the possibility of using capital controls to help prevent grease leaving the euro. Greece leaving the euro. The European Parliament is debating measures to boost liquidity as the country braces for debt payments on friday. An economic slowdown weight on demand in china. Prices fell in 66 of the 70 cities tracked by the government. The decline came despite the removal the reduced borrowing costs. Envoys say they have narrowed their technical dispute. This may not be enough to forge a packed a pact this week. Negotiators have given themselves until march 31 to find a framework agreement. Caroline join the conversation with us on twitter. Let us know what you think of the show, the story, the u. K. Budget that we are focusing on today. Just about to put out a tweet about facebook unveiling those plans to use messenger to spend money. Manus it is budget day in the u. K. What can we expect from George Osborne . Our next guest says higher growth and a lower deficit. That is after the break. Mark welcome back. George osborne presents the annual budget later today. What can we expect . Our next guest says it is all about growth figures. Lets bring in derek. Is there any scope for movement in sterling given that the obr is likely to tweak the growth figures and the deficit forecasts should be slightly better than the prebudget estimate . I think it is probably a more interesting day for us individually rather than the Global Markets. I think a lot of what is going to happen has already been put into the market. I do not think there will be any huge surprises. From a broader perspective, it is good news in terms of 2. 4 growth projections from december likely to be raised. The deficit profile is likely to be a bit better. And there is some leeway for reducing the degree of fiscal austerity in the next parliament. I think that is the key message from the tories. They want to try to dampen the big arguments from the opposition in regard to the scale of austerity that is coming, the worst since the 1930s. That would be the best position for them going into the election. Today is all of that setting up the framework for the election in may. Caroline anything you are expecting to be hauled out of the bag which will make investors reassess their view . There is some leeway for the tax allowance being raised caroline 11,000 pounds. Yes. Some easing from the energy sector, some tax cuts. There will be some positive news for a growth projection but they will try to make sure there is no big surprise that is going to boost the popularity of the tories going into the election. Manus lets talk about Jeremy Yellen janet yellen. I suppose we have the debate, inflation is down for the ninth day, bond yields are lower, the dollar is a mighty strong currency. Where are we in the great dollar debate . Today is a perfect day for a change in the communication. Yellen can drop the word pati ence and she has plenty of other tools to signal to the markets that the rates will come down in june. Perhaps not next year, but certainly this year. Then she has the conference at which she can reinforce the points that you just made, all of which are pretty much deflationary. In that context, i think the message today will be we have changed the guidance because we did not want to be in a situation with a time commitment, but we have flexibility. Currently, it is a situation where perhaps we do not have to go into in june. Highest since 2009. Does the view that the strength of the dollar could not postpone the timing of the rate hike, but slow down the pace of the rate increases, is that right . How does the dollar play into it in the next 6 to 9 months . It is becoming more and more important. I think it is the fastest move over an eight or ninemonth period since 1981. It is the speed of the move that is going to be of concern for the fed. I have charted that with the annual change of import prices in the United States, excluding energy. It is looking like it will go to Something Like 6. 5 . It is going to be this eight deflationary impetus. If the dollar continues to go as it is, that changes the complete profile of rates. First, we have to remind ourselves that the market is priced much below what the fed are telling us they need to do. We are at full employment in the United States. The range is 5. 2 five. 5 from the december projections. 5. 2 5. 5 from the december projections. If the market moves the way it has been, i do not see any reason to change that dramatically. They are still going to have to go. Yes, perhaps they can go september or december. Then the markets would consider every second meeting. That certainly would help take some of the momentum out of the dollar. Caroline give us a sense of where you are calling other currencies affected by this. The euro, are we headed for parity . People thinking we could see a push back in the euro. The real story is not what the u. S. Is doing, it is what is happening outside the United States. When the euro was at 1. 20, we had a 1. 05 projection for the end of the year and we were below the consensus. Now that projection, certainly some level below parity is likely. There is going to be no change in this obvious divergence. Perhaps the speed of the move changes and we do get a correction at some point. Perhaps today brings about a momentum reversal for a short time. The big story is unchanged. Mark thanks for joining us today. Global head of Global Market research at bank of tokyo mitsubishi. Caroline live pictures outside the ecb headquarters in frank for. Police are guarding the annual the area because anticapitalist and antiausterity protesters attempted to block access to the building later today. You can see them wheeling in now. Manus still to come, we take a look at George Osbornes last budget before britain goes to collections on may 7. Straight after this short break. Manus you are watching countdown. 6 30, london time. Lets take a look at how do for an Exchange Market is looking. This is the dollar. Virtually unchanged since yesterday, but a little bit of momentum coming lower in the dollar. I love the comment overnight from mr. Radel you ray dalio who runs bridgwater. The fed runs the risk of moving too fast and collapse the market. That is the view from one of the Biggest Hedge Funds in the world in terms of the dollar. 10year yields are at a twowe located bloomberg survey, 89 say the Federal Reserve will drop the word patient. 45 say a hike in june and 47 say a hike in september. The last comment from mr. Hal penny is that we are near full employment. That is going to tie the hands of the Federal Reserve. Keep an eye on the dollar. With that in mind, the dollar is just nibbling up by about. 1 . That has switched around through the end of the asian session. You should see the eurodollar drop a little bit lower. One great comment that has come through is the selling of the euro hitting a climax. Mizuho saying it has gone too far, too fast. Therefore, you can expect a rebound in the eurodollar according to mizuho. We have hit the buffers