Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20150910 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown September 10, 2015

Anna welcome to the program, you are watching countdown live from london. Lets put into context everything we have seen over the last 24 hours. We have seen a move back into the perceived safe haven place, although i should say the yen is bouncing around this morning in the session. That is nervousness around the u. S. Session yesterday. Lets reach out to where the u. S. Session took us. That came from what could be a good place, from the data. On the jobs front we got the survey in the u. S. Yesterday that shows that openings have increased the most since the year 2000. But that got investors wondering how quickly the Federal Reserve is therefore going to increase Interest Rates. That to the edge off the rest trading day yesterday. That would pick up in the asian sessions, and we see weakness coming in the session. All of that concern about the higher Interest Rates to me at a time where we increasingly see signs of slowdown, in part of the global economy. We had a number of clues today. The factory gate inflation coming through with the biggest drop in some six years. Brazil receiving a downgrade for his Credit Rating, as we said in the headline. S p. To junk by the and in new zealand, i have a chart on the dollar this is a threeday chart that shows how the dollar has moved lower as a result of the rate cut. That we have seen coming through the central bank in new zealand. That is partly a china story, we returned that no doubt in a moment. Plenty of threats to weave together today in our conversations around the markets. Lets get straight to hong kong where shery ahn is standing by. We have disappointing chinese data. Morning, filtering through the economy here in asia, we feel the impact of that. Of course, the shanghai composite down 9 10 of a percent. More than 2 with the Producer Price slumping the most in six years. Factory deflation has been a concern for quite some time now. The pdi declining for over 40 months, we are seeing more challenges for policymakers here. And i growth concern over the chinese economy, we saw through 3 aftermy, more than the historic rally yesterday. Today, we of course had some disappointing data out of japan, as well. Pdi machine orders and coming in at low expectations. The afx falling more than 2 , after some more positive data out of the economy there, employers adding more jobs and jobs to we 100,000 were expecting only 5000. The jobless rate easing there. Looking like that record low Interest Rate and also, you know, falling currency in australia, actually working for the economy. In new zealand, stocks unchanged at the moment. That is after the central bank caused Interest Rates by 25 basis points, to 2. 75 . We are not seeing much of a reaction in the equity markets. We are seeing it in the kiwi dollar, which is tumbling right now in trading. 2 , it was gaining for the last two session. We are seeing a drop. Actuallyyen, though, reversing earlier gains and weakening slightly trading on 120 spots. Back to you. Anna thank you very much. The latest on the markets there in hong kong. Lets stick with the asia thing, because the chinese premier leader still has the tools to deal with the growth. He announced that china will open up on shore currency markets to other countries. He spoke at the World Economic forum. We are integrating ourselves into the wider world. And china will open up even more. Our policy of investing abroad will remain unchanged. The specific policies will continue to encourage more Foreign Investment in china. And they will expand access to markets. Anna now the chinese premier spoke as china reported Consumer Prices rose at their fastest pace in a year. Compounding the challenges facing policymakers at a time when factory gate inflation is very weak, we have a live report from hong kong. Did he map out any plan to map out the economy . He talked about it operating at a reasonable rate, wasnt he . Yes he was. Good morning. He was at the summer version of davos. He had two big speeches to speak up the economy. Need a that if they steeper slowdown, interestingly, he was very direct on the yuan. He says theyre not looking to start a currency war. They dont what to damage the economy. He says theyre not looking to depreciate the one further. Comments by the premier pretty he willt, given that visit washington later this month. Anna very important in the context of august 11. The figure we got overnight, it shows factory gate deflation has deepened months and months of that story. Leaving the gap between Consumer Prices, and is factory prices the whitest in some 20 years, how can Central Banks and authorities get out of that . Enda it is really a horrible combination. You have in real terms higher borrowing costs for the factories, because inflation is going up. On the other hand, we see a bit of a spike in consumer pricing because of the impact on higher port prices. But they will look through the price of pork, and the Bigger Picture for them remains what economists say are plenty of rooms and options to take other targeted easy measures to try and get credit flowing through the economy. I would imagine the authorities would continue to focus on that side, practiced oak demand in the real economy getting things going. Rather than worrying about the spike. Anna good to see you. Thank you very much for your perspective. And for joining us there from hong kong. Lets turn to technology, apples annual Product Technology took place in San Francisco yesterday. New offerings include revamped iphone, ipad, apple tv. Our head of digital joins us now for more. Good morning to you. Lets put all of this and contact. The buildup to the holiday season, it gets a lot of attention. Understandably. What were the important reveals . Was it all about the iphone . People report to it as the event in september. This was an event where the iphone was the least focused on at the event, in comparison with a couple of the other investments. Because it physically looks the same, it has interesting features in terms of the screen being able to tell how hard your pressing it. Which opens up a whole new anna we talk about this yesterday. 3d touch. It has advanced from the watch into the phone. I think the most important thing we saw yesterday was the announcement of the ipad appropriate this is an entirely size 12 inches across. Anna you could say it is just another size of ipad. But it is crucially aging at a business market. Nate it is aimed at a more professional market, as well. One of the key difference is about this is that contrary to everything apple has done the past, it has a stylus accessory with it. This is something we did not expect from apple. A stylus with an ipad. To be fair, it is not included. It is an optional extra. But what it allows you to do is use the tablet is more graphics tablet. It has the force sensitivity, see you can use it for more creative means that you can on the ipad which you would you still use a finger on. Some upgrades, processor improvements, all of the things we expect from apple. The ipad is definitely want to be a big focus. Anna their tv product, as well. In attempt to make up for lost time perhaps . Hobby project . Nate the word hobby was not mentioned. Anna hobby no longer. A serious endeavor. Nate we expected this renewed focus, and on the apps. That is it what we got. I Huge Investment now in trying to build up the apple tv as it next big apps platform. It will have a store, developers are Getting Software to build the apps. Will have support from fashion, thes browsing closlo stores the app. App nate, good interview. What apple has been saying over the last one for hours. Coming up on the program, position day of the bank of england. No rate changes expected. But will the minutes show employeesark carneys are as stagnant about china as he has been recently . We look ahead to that. But first, a rate cut from a central bank in new zealand. It slams the kiwi while the aussie dollar has a big strengthening on strong job numbers not economy. We will have a look at those numbers, after a short break. Anna welcome back, youre watching countdown. It is now 6 14 in london. Here are the stories you need to know. Apple has unveiled a wideranging lineup of new products, including updated iphones, revamped tv, and a new ipad. Ceo tim cook showcased the products and San Francisco. Leader told the World Economic forum that he is confident the economy will hit its target this year. And he sees more opportunity for challenges. He says the situation is stabilizing, and urges people to have more confidence in the worlds recovery. He said that china has no interest in a currency war, having much more to lose than gain by it. Says thatinstitution u. K. House prices will rise twice as fast as it previously anticipated this year. That is a shortage of property widened the balance between supply and demand. Values will increase 6 in 2015, up from 3 addicted at the start of the a. The monthly house price index rose to a 50month high of 53 in august, from 44 the previous month. Brazil has been cut to junk. Latin americas largest economy lost the investmentgrade it enjoyed for seven years, after Standard Poors cut its rating. It highlights the economic challenges facing the country. And the trouble plaguing many of the emerging markets. Here with more on the rate change, caroline hyde. Good morning, how are the bricks come rolling . Caroline russia previously cut by Standard Poors. And the other one in focus, brazil the leader of the brakes in terms of which one comes at the beginning of bric. Cut by just one rating, sending it into junk. And also worrying, a negative outlook. Ment, moodys and fitch still at it investmentgrade. Anna the challenges the country faces, s p worried about the fiscal challenges in particular the Government Faces . Caroline the list is quite phenomenal. But we are in the midst of a recession, the deepest in a quarter of a century. But the growing budget deficit, you are right, this is something that Standard Poors really signals out. Effectiveness of been downgraded not once but twice july and august. Six weeks, and Standard Poors highlights the 2 surplus. Expecting the white corruption charges that are engulfing this entire country. The politics is also something that Standard Poors has really highlighted. The probe of course embroiling the president. The president herself while she whichairman of petrobras, is of course the state owned oil company, she is within the probe. Her popularity at a record low. Going forward, just a fracturing of the overall collision. Clearly, these are things being cited. Economic woes are there to be seen. The currency really slumping more than will the shows 60 over the past 12 months. This is the dollar gaining, the brazilian reout slumping. That showing of course we are in a recession. And the bond market, showing the risk that is escalating borrowing costs and yields a record highs. For local bonds and for credit, the cost of insuring your brazilian debt, that too at a sixyear be. Anna where other reforms . They have been much promised. Caroline a technocrat was brought in as finance minister in january. He has not been able to get the reforms through. His mandate was to shore up the finances, but he failed to do. Hasnt he . Conga as has been fighting him, because of in popularity, they have been rebelling against the austerity plans that is voting down just this week the delayed vote on bills to increase revenue brought in from incentivizing resilience to repatriate money, allegedly part illegally abroad. They have been fighting back with vetoes. But rebels try to put in salary boosts for federal workers, trying to lift the retirement payouts. That is very antiausterity. But that is what we have to get through, get the austerity drive going. He made a major email statement yesterday when he said that brazil will take late assertive action to boost efficiency and productivity to spur growth. The question still remains, will he get through . Back to you. Anna caroline on result. Let us turn to new zealand, the central bank there has cut Interest Rates for the first time in three months. Lets go to Ian Macdonald in sydney, ian, it was only a year ago they were raising rates. Now they had to cut them three times in three months. What be disingenuous to suggest they get it wrong . Or would that be the benefit of hindsight . Ian hindsight is a good thing, isnt it . Last year, the central bank in new zealand look ahead and saw soaring gary prices, construction was extremely strong. They had Housing Market that was really turning into a bit of a bubble. And so they hiked quite aggressively, 12 months on, we know the dairy price and prices in general celso sharply and completely blindsided the reserve bank of new zealand. So it turned up to be quite different than what it expected. So they are hurrying to cut rates and obviously we had three cuts now. They are seeing a much weaker growth outlook, they cut one percentage point off their growth forecast for this year, from just over 3 to just over 2 . That gives you an idea of just how quickly things are changing your. Anna and how much longer do you think rates will go . There are some hints that this is not the last in the cycle more there . Ian the central bank here every ee months is a forecast for Interest Rate. Is an indication of the benchmark growth. It suggest one more cut, and escrow bank has basically said that the Global Outlook turns out to be weaker than expected. They expect they could go even further. And this incoming governor said they are plenty of ammunition, we have remember their cash rate is still, even after three cuts, is a 2. 75 . Still well above the main Interest Rate of most other developed nation. Anna lets talk about austria. We had jobs data out there. Ian that is right. We were thinking there was a possibility that implement rate could rise a bit because the government had changed some of the Social Security programs, which is when to push more people onto the jobless cues. But that did not turn to be the case. And what economists are saying, the rate in august, 6. 2 looks to have stabilized. Now with an Unemployment Rate roughly around 6 , maybe that is where it will stay. One of the things that is helping keeping a lid on the jobless rate, despite the fact that Economic Growth year is not that strong, around 2 , is that wage growth here is incredible low. It is basically recession levels. Workers are not able to get any kind of pain increase out of their bosses. That is helping to keep more people in work, keeping the jobless rate from going much higher. Anna ian, thank you very much. Joining us there from sydney. Let us continue our conversation about what is happening to interestrate, all things macro, lets talk to peter. He is Commonwealth Bank of australias senior currency strategist. Thank you for coming in. You seem wellplaced to comment about what were seeing coming out of both his economies, whatever the data or the Interest Rate is. Dealing with the china situation in some way or other. China, itisnt just is the emerging world. So they greeks in particular, theyte 30 of global gdp, contributed 60 of the growth since 2011. We are seeing a slow down there, obviously brazil iin recession. Russia is slowing. This is coming at a time when supply and Commodity Markets has been ramped up. And that is obsolete putting downward pressure on commodity prices. And that is affecting the terms of trade and were seeing the currencies with those producers fall. Anna you dont see that changing. No turn in the commodity cycle. Ist yesterday, you downgraded think it was your forecast for the new Zealand Dollar. Peter that is right. We downgraded our views on china yesterday. It all feeds into one another. We are expecting that commodity story to remain in place for a while. That will keep kiwi and obviously the aussie under pressure. But the fed in the background coming through. We are probably in the minority, were not expecting a rate hike next week. We think they will look at the current state of play and the global backdrop and sit back and assess things. And wait until the end of the year before they raise rates. But ultimately, it is still a story of when. They dont like being at zero. But that will see yield spreads compressed. We are cutting rates again today, we expect more from them. They are on hold for the for seeable future. The spreads are going to compress, and more down more pressure. Anna you mentioned the economic recovery in china, since a summer, we have in wrestling with just how quickly is the economy slowing . How much growth can they eek out . Give us your forecast. 7 , now there are questions were the number is going to land. But it matters materially, whether it lands at 6. 5 or something more like 5 . Many people are not distinguishing between the two. Peter the official numbers will come close to 7 00. They seem to make the target. It does show a material slowdown. That shows us the underlying aggregate demand is not going to be increasing. At best, we will see sterilization coming through. But when you have a large rampup in supply and Commodity Markets, the increase in demand is not to be enough to offset that. That will keep the commodity complex under pressure. Anna we should be surprised that china is slowing. Because of the structural changes, should they be going more slowly question mark you think with that global Wishful Thinking . Peter i think the Market Sentiment is slumping. And the reality is another thing. The chinese

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