Welcome to countdown, i am guy johnson. Lets tell you what you need to know about what is happening in those markets out there. This mondayen up morning . How do we figured out from here . Us . E does the story take at the moment, we have another negative application of the 1. 5 we dropped friday in the u. S. We are down, not by much. We have a slight negative ditch. That is the u. S. Close. I want to highlight some things for you. Let me show you this chart. This is the hero dollar. Goldman sachs has an interesting call. That is likely to add a little bit of down trajectory to the eurodollar rate. Up to . 10 could be coming off. Watch out for that one today. The other thing i want to highlight as well today is to watch out for vw. How much pressure will this emissions scandal added to the vw stock . It was falling friday. What i continue monday morning . What isets talk about happening in asia and find out what the market up take is from there. We have a bunch of things happening. It will bunch of things are happening and is a down day for the market. Check out the pacific index. It is down by 2 now. This is following the selloff in wall street friday. Investors continue to interpret the Federal Reserve decision and what it means for the asiapacific. That uncertainty is having an impact on emerging market currencies. We see a good news, relative to the malaysian ringgit. They are very sensitive to fed tightening. As for equities, this is what we have. You can see red across the screen. Shanghai is a notable exception. She gets ready getting ready give his visit to the United States. Look at hong kong. It is down by 1. 25 . These Industry Groups are moving today. You see property shares falling. This is the flagship company. There are others that are bucking the trend. Utilities are doing well at a 120 gain for hong kong electric. Currencies have been quite active, following the australian market. Look at this. 2. 5 decline on the equity market. It is across the board in terms of Industry Groups, from minors, to oil and Mining Services companies. Closely. Atch that there are some telecom names in there. The chinese News Organization is reporting that Rupert Murdoch has heard from ping himself, telling him china is open to foreign media. A news clip shows. Sense of howyou a the currency markets are performing, we are seeing investors piling out of risk. Currenciesg market are not doing so well in this session. 2. 6 drop. The casinoking names, which are falling precipitously today. Downy entertainment is 2 3 . It is a continuing concern about the strength of the gaming sector. Can it change fast enough to be a diversified entertainment venue that will make money . That is the big concern. Back to you. Japan is closed until wednesday. Maybe they are celebrating the victory over south africa in rugby. Lets tight about the events that will dominate the agenda of this week. Wednesday we get readings for the euro area. Thursday, watch this one. The eagles for the rest of his political term. Doing little to reinflate and revive that economy. You do not want to miss that. Attention to that. Seconday, we get the call of the gdp out of the United States. That is the data that will come at later today. It is a little bit quieter. Tsipras has secured a surprisingly strong wind in the greek collection. It was too close to call. His syriza party will perform a oflition after winning 35. 5 the vote sunday. He made this speech to thank his supporters. I want to thank the young people that gave this fight. I want to thank everyone. Even want everyone put us on the firing line, we proved to have close ties to the working classes. Joined by tom in athens. Tsipras has done well. Known expected it to be quite the strong for him. Tom that is right. He beat the polls by a long margin. He beat the expectations by many in his party. We were outside with the result less night. Thee was relief asked on faces of many of his colleagues there. This was a man, do not forget, who took greece to the brink of exit from the euro. Clammed up completely, the banks closed for a number of weeks. The greek people have given the press a second chance. The one caveat to this is the voter turnout was very low. A historic low of 56 . An increase for the nationalist party that will give many paths for thought give many pause for thought. He has managed to carve out the rebels that went out to form their own party. He now has a stronger mandate. He has just five extra seats with a majority in parliament. He will hold that coalition together. He feels confident, with an element of caution this morning, looking ahead. If you number of tweets already from european leaders. The latest from dijsselbloem. How will the rest of europe view this . Tom with a sense of relief, i think. Of the greek people voted for probailout party. He looks forward to working on ece needs togre push through. Ying,ve heard from banks sa this reduces the Political Risk for greece. There are huge challenges ahead. The targets that are embedded in his tale of deal would mean economyeeds to grow the quickly to meet those targets. If they do not, they will have to cut back on budgets further, increasing the pain of the greek people. But with the former finance nestor and he did say he is wary of this, but he knows there is a big struggle ahead of them. He will be pushing to soften the blow of some of the bailout reforms as well. Give themors will not a great deal of breathing space. Guy our man in athens, tom mackenzie. Lets get another take on the story we got over the weekend. The former greek finance minister joins us now. Good morning to you. Our thoughts on the results a little stronger than expected . So, yes. K a little stronger, although nobody knew the results. We were surprised with the referendum by how strong he came out. We are not really surprised by what what happened less like. The greek people are tired by the old politicians and need a change. They are willing to forgive all of the mistakes of the previous government. Nothing negative can stick on mr. Tsipras before the greeks start paying. We will have to watch and see after they start paying real estate tax, after their pensions come down, whether he continues to be popular. There is no longer any Political Risk in greece. The government has a horizon of four years. It is up to the government to implement the reforms. Practicalfted to matters. , getting credibility out of capital controls, and bringing back positive growth, hopefully, by the Third Quarter of 2016. Guy where do you think the big risk lies economically . We are dealing with a company with a country that still has banking controls, still has a economy that is strangled by the lack of access to a normally functioning system. How quickly can we restore normality to the economy . Number one, the banks have to 40 ofpitalized because the loans are not performing. This has huge and a lot the capital. We are waiting to see the stress test that will come from the europeans, from ssm. Hopefully, they will not be as t the previous investors a trusted the greek banks. Number one is the recap hotel a is the of banks recapitalization of banks. Number two are the capital controls. If they are not lifted, the Small Enterprises will continue to go under. That is a big problem for the economy. The government lost credibility and has to gain it back. It has to do the right thing, and very quickly. It is up to mr. Tsipras to gather together a good team, a team that works hard, that has a plan, and pushes. The previous government was too late back, to ideological, they do have a work ethic. They kind of messed up. Excuse andre is no hopefully, they have learned from their mistakes. Hopefully, we can look into the future with optimism. Whether i ask you about or not we now have a government that has the ability to start making significant changes to the structure of the Greek Economy . Previously, it was all about battling brussels and trying to get a better deal in brussels. Now, the attention must shift closer to home. Maybe starting to deal with some of the closed off areas of the economy. Maybe trying to deal with the story that surrounds the old establishment. How close do you think he can get to some of the targets on that one . I think, if he himself understands that reforms is a democratic process, even a socialistic trust us, that he can sell it to the people. The pm himself has to understand that they have to bring transparency, fix the public sector, fight corruption. Give powere things to the people in the end. He has to understand that privatizations are not necessarily bad. Simplyu privatize you lease out the property for a while for someone who can run it better. This will bring benefits to the country. I think, the moment the Prime Minister understands this deeply, the reforms are not , for hisis policies policies, then he could succeed. Guy we will leave it there. It is always interesting to see you. The former greece Prime Minister, turning us to talk about what is next. We are joined the practice had of eurasia. The challenge now comes closer to home, doesnt it . They dealt with brussels. Lost, you make that call of her history. Now it is about the details of the Greek Economy. The agenda is extremely challenging. I the end of the year, the government must implement tax reform, pension reform, privatizations. Undertake a negotiation with creditors to secure debt relief. Opennk it is a very question regarding whether this government will the competent to conclude all of those reforms and conclude all of those concessions. System seems to be simple at this stage. There is still not a functioning economy. How can you start to get the ball rolling when you do not even have the basic elements in place to make that work . They need a strategy for dealing with mpls. Privatizing some of the banks. I think there is a consensus. More broadly, the germans and others, are looking to tie bank cuts to a broader progress across the program. This creates the risk there will bes that there will. They could potentially result in a recap next year. E disastrous for political stability increase. I think it is a really important point. This would of given tsipras a larger majority, with a more credible party, with more competent administrators. Partnerse of being with the independent greeks will worry the europeans, given what happened over the last nine months. The does raise a question with the governments willingness and commitment to move forward. Guy we clearly, ideologically is heavily left of center. All of the had dealings he has had with brussels, having understood the reality of government that he star the tax incentive. There is a more credible story surrounding him. He of the finance minister that is easier to deal with and someone say, less volatile. He has a few of the people around him that are not so easily influenced. What do you make of his political trajectory . Mujtaba i think on some level that is right. She will surround himself with a slightly more competent economic team. The interim finance minister could well remain a finance minister. A lot of the degrees of freedom in the government will be constrained by brussels that will on some level, force them to move forward with reforms. These measures are unpopular. Guy there is a mandate here that could taken a long way. We dont need to end up in a situation where every five minutes he is calling another referendum on this, or that. He has a little bit of a political space to make changes. Mujtaba he has a majority of four people. Knows that as long as he sticks to what he said, they will broadly support the economic klansman pushed forward. He will not lose ground there. Mujtaba the fiscal targets are still extremely challenging. For 2016, next years budget, this administration is already going to have to specify additional measures to meet the in 2017 and 2018. There are those that believe, and i on some level, and one of those people, that the greek lit ago system has proved completely of delivering substantial reform and consistency with the bella program. There will be slippage. Where will that fall and what will the response be from creditors . Mired in aompletely refugee crisis. Will she be able to save greece this time around . It is a lot less clear to me. There are a lot of politics still to be done. Thank you for your analysis. A bit of breaking news coming through. Insurance over the past couple minutes has had talks with rsa they have been terminated. There will be no offer me today. It is updating on its q3 trading as well. This is related to the talks that rsa talks have been terminated. Coming up, after winning a past battle isthe next with the u. S. Consumer. Details with that story, coming next. The u. K. Counselor George Osborne set down his vision for a future with the country. We will look at his plan later in the show. Plus, we will be talking anythi ng glittery. I. Will talk about swarovsk well take a break. Guy welcome back. Let me tell you about the stories and you to tell you about. Alexis tsipras is back in town. He won the second election with 35. 5 of the vote. That was a bigger number than anticipated. Economy is not as weak as it may look. Describes a mixed, rather than disastrous picture for the economy. The sessions and china may be more thoroughly divorced from the facts on the ground. The u. S. Will taken more syrian refugees. John kerry said the u. S. Will admit at least 10,000 refugees over the next year. Will settle tor 100,000 in the fiscal year of 2017. Vw has admitted to systematically cheating on emission tests. Apologized, that it is now vulnerable to billions in criminal prosecution. Its going to hans nichols for more in berlin on this story. With kick off with the facts here. What did vw try to get away with . Saying is the epa is that they installed the socalled defect devices. Detects when a car is going under admissions testing. That, it releases less nitrogen oxide. There on the road, they have 10 times40 times more than the allowed pollutants. When you have that on when you are driving on the road, you get more cap and torque. This deals with the beetle diesel vehicles. Ordered nextas journal investigation. They are pledging to quote rate with authorities in the states. Yesterday, the ceo put out this statement. You can hear the contrition. We are deeply sorry that we have broken the trust with the customers and the public. We will cooperate fully with the responsible agencies with transparency to completely establish all of the effects of this case. Volkswagen has ordered an external investigation of this matter. The models that are affected are thehe diesel models beetle, the jetta, because god, the audi a3. This is a challenge for volkswagen because they want to have a bigger footprint in the states. Sale stateside were diesel vehicles. This will be a massive challenge and a big pr headache. They will have to deal with the cost side and legal side as well. Guy you spoke with them at the frankfurt auto show. Are any hints from any of them, the people that you spoke to, that this was about to happen . Hans none. Either he did not know, or winterkorn is a cool customer. Well wait and had not been fast enough to engage in the electric vehicle space. And you, they did not have a big enough footprint in the states. Frankfurttalk in about electric vehicles. Porsche unveiled the concept car, entirely electric. Nothing directly or even bleakley, poke with legal hurdles in the states. Are raising up to 18 billion in fines. That is three 7,000 per vehicle. This is a big issue for volkswagen. Guy thank you very much indeed. Now, coming up, drumming up business, George Osborne is in china. More on that, when it return. Guy it is 6 30 in london and 7 30 in brussels. Here are the stories you need to know. The press is back in power. Sipris is back in power. Withll enter a Coalition Small parties that helped him rudely for. According to a private survey, the report from china describes a mixed, rather than disastrous picture of the economy. China may be more thoroughly divorced from the banks on the ground than we thought. The u. S. Will taken more syrian refugees. Secretary of state john kerry d states unite will bring in 10,000 refugees in the next year. In2017, they will bring hundred thousand. Lets look at how the eurodollar is trading. Goldman sachs says the currency may fall . 10. Caroline it is a significant move. That would be 9 in terms of weakening. Lets have a look at how much we could actually sink. We could reach as much as 1. 03. The significant dropoff could be anticipated in the euro. It is interesting if you look at another function from bloomberg. It is the bloomberg correlated weighted index. In the last six months, the euro has strengthened. It has been the second test performer, versus the 10 other developed nations we track on the index. It has been up more than 6 in the last six months. 620 to be specific. The the second backs secondbest performer. Goldman sachs says the reason qe could last, much longer until the end of 2016. Until mid2017. This represents a material upsizing of the original program. So, . 10, how much does that back up to the other analysts out there . It is actually pretty similar. When youre tracking what the anticipation is for the euro, you can use many functions. These are foreign currency forecasts. When he logged into it only bloomberg terminal, they think we could fall more than . 10 in the next quarter. Downthink we could fall 2. 96, in terms of where we are versus the dollar. Weakening over the course of the next few quarters. Though, that is 7 weakening. Goldman sachs is going above and seend where the analysts the weakening over the next seven months. Back to you. Chinaets move back to with the state counselor. He is addressed concerns about the slowdown in his country and the decision to devalue the yuan. He said the chinese reforms will benefit the rest of the world in the long run. Graph isaid the reason not reflective of the state of the chinese economy. Free from itst challenges and problems on the economic front. Of course, there have been some ups and downs in the Stock Exchange market. Given chinas economic development, given the fact that china is a developing country. There are movements on the Stock Exchange in china. Should not equal the entire picture of the chinese economy. Demanda supply and determine the value of imb. Imb, generally speaking, is quite steady in value. Course, continue to reform in china in various sectors, including the Financial Sector. Years,ople look back, 10 or 15 year