Welcome. Edwards. Nna lets go here. We have the new year and the starting with the composite down down earlynzhen is with the latest manufacturing data. Manufacturing is dropping for the fifth straight month and i have a touch of all of these for you. Of course what we have is the it was embassy and attacked. The west texas intermediate and the Political Risk here, you have the number one producer and number five producer on the back of a record two years we have seen. It is a political rally and we supply andt the oil the huge debate between the political and the bear market factors. Lets get to the news with caroline hyde. Oil is trading higher this morning with tensions escalating. They have cut ties with the Islamic Republic. The embassy was attacked and protest came in response to the execution of a shiite cleric. Worse than expected chinese manufacturing is expected with the risky assets. For anufacturing weekend sixmonth and there was a gauge of services in india. Fisher says it may be necessary for the central bank to increase rates. Stressed that this should be the first. The economy is in a reasonable situation and it may be possible to use the interest and the asset prices. Thank you very much. They have cut ties after the attacks on the embassy. In minutes, we will speak to elliott god can. React . Iran likely to see what else we can have the attack on the embassy. We have the divine hand of revenge and it is not really action toe around any punish the saudis for what they did. Also, the president has made it interestt they have no in escalating this thing further. For the president , this is not a great time. There is a situation that plays into the hands of hardliners. What are the possible regional repercussions . Been at each other regionally for several years now and there is a proxy war going on and running in their with rebelsrabia accusing the and fighting underground. You have a proxy war in syria. Has other areas iran increasing support. They are already supporting syria quite extensively and it remains to be seen whether there will be an intensification of the conflict. Lets go to our middle east editor. I mentioned the price of crude rising. The question was about it boiling higher. Suppose that they will be able to distinguish between a war affords and what is happening on the ground. Mentioned, we are talking about saudi arabia and, until there is indications, we will only see a reaction in the markets. As you said, it is a second straight session in a row. Getting atably little bit nervous. Perspectiveit of record below 40. There is a ways to go before we get back here. Thank you very much. Thank you. Lets check out. Good morning to you. A new year and a new roller coaster this morning. Triggerstunning way to the start of the new year. Arounde is a joke going on social media that this may have done on purpose to see if they have. Lets get to what is happening and we are down around 2 . It is a full day start to the to 1998 and it is in china. Doubt and Chinese Markets open up. It is going to accelerate will is going on. R what there is a reason being brought up. Pairing backestors on the possibility that the and weor may soon go have seen losses. What happened was, back to my indexearlier, it is the of the 300 largest in shanghai will triggere that losses atnd we have about this much. We will see how this plays out in the markets. We have these to be priced and drop. E the offshore again, back to you. Lets bring in the next guest for the halfhour. Happy new year to you. We have so much to talk about. Thes talk about geoPolitical Tensions. You think this will be shortlived . Or, do you think there are in 2015 . Is an oil price and we believe the u. S. Oil prices go of through the year. We do not expect any sort of someimpact will stop people say there is a reaction. The u. S. Beginning to export for the first time. Threatening on this. We can see the rates dramatically falling over last year. You see it coming through. It just takes a while. There are a lot of bearish market sentiments. There is currently a lot of weakness. And the area were looking at is seeing a lot of weakness. Weakness to come through. In a this going to be seen commodityrelated seen . To and are going to have it is not priced into the rate market. What more momentum is there. We have a substantial we have not had any pricing in with the rates is there. Nk of canada stay with us. Stay with bloomberg. Here is what is ahead. It is over to the u. K. For manufacturing and pmi numbers. Close for, the stocks the day on worse than expected manufacturing data. Back. Welcome you are watching countdown. Lets get to Bloomberg Business. Thank you. About 32 billion in cash and stock. A deal may be announced this week. There is a newspaper report that resultedcarmakers have in italian supercar a stockll trade on exchange. It completed a spinoff of the superluxury division. More on those stories. Manus thank you. Newing in china under the circuit system with a drop on chinese stocks, heading for their worstever starts. Our chief asian economies joins us now. Happy new year. It looks like a fairly rough spot. Right. There is a narrative in 2015 manufacturing and and relative strength in services. We look at the official numbers and the manufacturing continues to be week. We are expecting this story. The critical thing for the it is more job intensive and that will generate a lot of opportunities and it means the government does not have to do the two aggressive stimulus. 2016, we get rearview near mirror numbers. What you expect . Heading into 2016, it is a story of stabilization. Cuts accelerating the public spending and we are starting to see it through the end of 2015. We expect that in the early part is the expectation official numbers showing a progressive weakening in growth and it will come in around 7 or 6 . We think it will edge down. There is a gentle slow down in growth with official baidoa. Is thatr expectation andth with independents private measures in the larger economy. Tom. thank you very much, we are looking at manufacturing data. What was your phrase . Anna new year, new roller coaster. What is the expectation . It will not cut rates. We have stability in the think theyand we will go below the projected and inevitably anna they talked about a surplus of housing and they are more in debt management, rather than broader measures. It is more about the fine tuning and the pmi. We do things involving construction out there. This is the dollar and they trade on the index. Said he would90, stop the bubbles. Where are you with the dollar . Are we going to see another year . Another leg of the dollar and there is a difference with what the fed is looking for and what the market projects will lead to more. And, however, we have a bearish view on the economy and we back inthat we will be march. The extent of the hiking cycle will be what . You talked about this and not going to get into the he talks about a zero dream. You talk about a uturn in the fed. Is much longer and this is into the this late economic cycle. You can say this in the labor you can see the peak of the cycle. Anna they were talking about a gloom and doom reports. Gloomy. Not that hit withis more of a the Oil Production and we are going to see more of a downturn. The Consumer Spending supports the economy and it is a pillar of growth. About thes talk United Kingdom and the big year for the United Kingdom with what is happening in the country and the grexit. We have a poll that shows theiderable concern about buildup to brexit. Inre is tremendous pressure 2016 and Deutsche Bank wants a dollar 15. It a risk for starting . We look at the general the bondhere and market is priced in. It is almost too early to tell with the reference of days. Isyou price it in, it difficult. See andis a dollar we it is quite weak. Manus what is the top of the tree for you . Are going to cut in the markets and i think there is a slight risk with the easing from the ecb. Anna thank you. Tensions between saudi arabia and iran. We will break the story down with the implications across the globaland the perspectives. Stay with us on countdown. Manus time to get to first word news. Chinese stock Trading Halted than csi 300 plunged more 700. Akened. Ufacturing weeken Stanley Fischer says it might be necessary for the central bank to increase rates. Stressed that using regulatory tools should be the first line of defense. Economy is in a reasonable situation, employment, targeted inflation. It may be possible or wise to try to use the Interest Rate to deal with what is happening to asset prices. Higher astrading tensions escalate between saudi arabia and iran. They have cut ties with the Islamic Republic after the Saudi Embassy in toronto was attacked. Tehran was attacked. More on those stories. Anna thank you. You have been watching the markets as well, caroline. Caroline what evidence of sheer risk aversion this morning. We were just talking about the as the Circuit Breakers come into action. Immediately tripped, down 7 , options trading and stocks halted after half of the day in china. The csi 300 showing that risk aversion. Chinese data coming in worse than expected. It looked like chinas Manufacturing Industry might the or two. A headache a signal of contraction. Thats the longest losing streak since 2009. You dig into the private data, many trusts that better. Missingzhen composite estimates. All this whirring about manufacturing worrying about manufacturing pulling down on stocks. Every single Industry Group is trading lower and china, metals selling off, and commodityrelated foreign exchange. Dollar, the new zealand daughter. Meanwhile, the search for safety. Gold goes higher. Yen goes higher. This is the dollar down versus the yen. The yen having the strongest day since october against the dollar. Bracing ourselves for more economic day letter, data. Data, inflation data, the market is expecting stabilization. I as an manufacturing data comes out as well. Keep an eye on oil. Manus thank you very much. Saudi arabia is at the top of the news this morning. They cut ties after attacks on its embassy in tehran. We speak to our reporter in dubai. Do by now. Get to how is iran likely to act following this news overnight from saudi arabia . It is difficult to guess what iran will be doing, but we might see in the immediate term is a conflict between the and hardlineons elements in the political establishment. We saw the initial reaction coming from iran after the execution. We have on one hand, the supreme leader, more on the hardline side, coming out with a strong warning about repercussions. Then we have the iranian president saying with a much more balance, nuanced tone, condemning, but at the same time condemning the storming of the embassy. What we might be seeing now is a type of conflict happening on what might be the more dominant voice coming out of iran. Immediate,the more medium run, what iran could be doing if it wants to step up and show a stronger face, might be the fact that they would want to step up their support in areas within the region where they are engaged with saudi arabia and , wherears, yemen, syria they are each in those countries supporting opposing forces. It is difficult to predict, but we are seeing an escalation of be rhetoric, and it will possible there will be repercussions. Anna thank you. Lets bring in our guest host. Senior advisor at credit squeeze. Great to see you. Credit suisse. Great to see you. Story to dealedit with on day one. Is this something that sticks or drops away from the headlines . This isirst comment is just an escalation of an existing piece of tension. Lets not forget that we have yemenis proxy war in between saudi arabia and iran, inconclusive. The ceasefire broke down last week. In addition, in syria, a coalition of around, has law, law has two questions. Will the escalation increase. The big Pressure Point is actually the Eastern Province of saudi arabia, because the where youovince is have that concentration of this year population. Shia population. That is the area to watch. Escalation ande tension domestically and saudi arabia, but i would be very surprised if it seriously got out of control to the extent that it disrupts Saudi ArabianOil Production. Likewise, lets not forget that iran is motivated to increase production. This reaction to the oil price which you have on your graph, yes, it is logical, because geoPolitical Tension results in a Higher Oil Price at a time when oil is very oversold, but lets not forget that both saudi arabia and iran have plans to maintain or increase production. Manus lets pick up on that. If you look at the fundamentals, the twos worst years for the oil market, russia is at a record, saudi arabia is over supplying you could be forgiven for having a bearish outlook this year. Where do you see the processe are in of forming a base. Churnk the brent will between the low 30s and the mid 40s for at least the first half of this year. It is very difficult to put forward a case for an oil price recovery. A daily surplus, which is very significant, yes, rig counts are coming down, but coming down slowly. Yes, high cost areas like alaska and the north sea can cut back. , the economics looks very poor on price levels for oil. Saying thatguments over the next six months, we will see the supply side tightening, but i dont see much of an improvement in demand. I think we will go through this unsatisfactory price turning, brent in the lower 30s price churning, brent in the lower 40s and 30s. Seeing on the back of week pmi data, this is not a new story. China storye rumbling through 2015. How nervous are you . Chinese equity markets are down shenzhen. 8 in into whatreak it down is happening in the economy. We have this ongoing divergence between the official andfacturing pmi, 49. 7, another that is consistently weaker. I dont see any reason why that should change. As one looks at the drivers for the chinese economy in 2016, consumption data is still running over 10 year on year. Infrastructure spending is still very strong. This restructuring of the economy with more focus on the service sector. Manufacturing will remain weak. It is consistent with the imf forecast for this year, 6. 3 growth. I think that is right. Market,ooks at the clearly sentiment is negative. I washe last 23 weeks, nervous about the Chinese Market because we have had this very good rally since last september july. The bubble bursts in we crash down to around 2. 5 thousand on the shanghai composite then rallied back to 3. 5 thousand. Close to 3000. I think it is a technical reaction against a background of inevitably poor manufacturing data. Comment, focus on the currency. You have this quite major cnh,gence between cny and cnh trading above 6. 6. It looks weak. It looks like it will get weaker. Manus we think they will come closer together. I think it is reasonable that we will see the Chinese Renminbi trade in the first half of this year, 670, and thats not good for capital flows in or out of the chinese economy, because chinese investors expect further currency weakness, then they will export capital. Manus thank you very much. Ofy with us for the rest countdown. Anna welcome back. You are watching countdown. Lets get to Bloomberg Business flash. Caroline drugmaker shyer in talks to build back silva. Back sold the the deal may be announced as soon as this week. After an takata surged newspaper report that japanese carmakers may provide support. They have been at the center of the biggest recall and history in history. Ferrari starts trading on the milan stock exchange. The supercar maker was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in october. Yesterday, Fiat Chrysler distributed its remaining shares to shareholders. More on those stories manus thank you very much. 2015 saw the rise of drones,gies such as cars. ,nna joining us now from paris what did we see under the Christmas Tree for the Technology Sector . It was under pretty much every Christmas Tree and flying around every household. Drones were one of the hottest tech trends. That reflected on the christmas list. Year for up and down drones in terms of regulation. That consumers would now have to register their drones in the u. S. Drones were predicted to be sold at christmas in the u. S. Alone. Consumer appetite was there. Atsaw a lot of drones christmas. That will keep going this year as we head into the Consumer Electronics show in vegas. Manus lets talk about that. What can we expect for the year ahead of part from drones . What can we expect . Way it is at the expanding this year, there are 200,000 square feet, three and a half football fields. The big thing will be self driving or Driverless Cars. A law of the carmakers, gm, allergy, mercedes, and even volkswagen will show up in vegas to talk about what they have planned and when we will see Driverless Cars on the road. Security some questions. We have seen some hacking incidents this year that will google be addressed, but is saying they expect 10 million Autonomous Vehicles on the road by 2020. Thank you very much. Manus youve come back in fighting form, havent you . Lets get a little more on the ferrari listing in italy. It is a big day for this brand. It joins the milan stock exchange. In terms ofreckon this move, a smart move . Morning fromgood the Milan Exchange today. For murray separated from Fiat Chrysler for the first time ferrari separated from Fiat Chrysler for the first time. Now worth almost 90 of what was worth Fiat Chrysler on the market when it announced th