Welcome to countdown. Anna welcome to the program, everybody. 6 00 in the morning here in london. Manus warmer here than in zurich. Anna the to have you back in the studio. 1. 6il Company Giving us billion, after estimates of 3 billion. That looks to be below the estimate. Focus on Capital Expenditure and dividend is always going to be manus i am reading the wrong numbers. You are right. Capital expenditure. Anna talking about maintaining the dividend while offering the option to reinvest, do introduce a script dividend. There was concern in the Analyst Community about to what extent the dividend would be protected this time, and into the rest of the year. We will talk to the ceo about that a little bit later. Manus a significant shift the first to do this. They protected the Dividend Rate this is a first in terms of going into the cash, a form of paper. Let us talk about ing. We have full numbers. They come in the what have we got here . 890 million. So, that is a beat on the headline for ing. They have gone with the dividend of . 65. Down about 20 for the dividend of double nickels. Underlines profit at 4. 2 billion. Looking like that dividend is a beat on the top line for ing. Anna we should tell you we have an interview surrounding these businesses over the next hour and a half. We are going to speak to the ing cfo, patrick flynn. We will also talk to other oils later on. though. This is something that was triggered by Data Services in the u. S. It forced people to reevaluate the fx market and were the fed was going. Manus this was the dollar index. It has been a real drop. This is a resetting, there is a lovely line in the story this morning where the currency traders are catching up with the rate traders. We had such a cracking run on the dollar, embracing the fed new reality. Can they do a rate hike . That is the bottom line for both equity markets and for the fx market. And dudley at the new york fed, we are focused on janet yellen, acknowledging that the world has changed. The dollar is definitely under pressure. Anna as we are talking about the reality for the central bank, lets talk about the yen. Banklimit of the central power, we see diminishing returns that quantitative easing, negative rates announced by the japanese. The yen jumped 1. 9 . We have gotten that back. It was not all about the currency. But it might have been. Da says heernor kuro does not see negative rates passed to the man on the street. He does not ignore the fact that you could go deeper and more negative. Do negative rates really, really work for the economy . Anna a little bit later on the program, we will talk about that. Oil has risen for a second day, extending his rebound in the biggest drop in almost seven years. That is after the dollar plunged following poor data, and after opec members said they were open to attending a meeting if one were called. Negativeof japans Interest Rate can fall as low as possible. Boj advisers say there is no floor for exit rate, and a stimulus could still be expanded, if needed. The bank of japan has signaled that it has many options in the armory. Tocould even lower rates achieve 2 inflation. Clever, i am sure the current policy will band inflation. Hasa meanwhile, the yen already undone all of its 1. 9 drop since friday, when they made the negative rate announcement. The parity shows the currency is still far from expensive. The Commonwealth Bank of australia is betting on the yen strength, saying it will be a bullish trade if the currency holes firm. A report that the company will billion rescue plan. They did not give further details. The chairman met at headquarters last week to make his case for the raise bid. The u. K. Chancellor says that eu proponents will be protected, holding out for the deal that safeguards london this month. His comments come as Prime MinisterDavid Cameron he negotiates the relationship with the eu. Global news, 24 hours a day and more than 150 news bureau around the world. Anna, manus. Asia, lets move to standing by. Zeb, the chinese have made some noises about the money they will allow to flow in and out of the economy. Interpretingrket that come the new bandwidth of 6. 5 . Mind the gap. Ze3bb and watch your step. Ahead of the lunar holiday, making the attempts to buy. Most of the major markets, except japan, singing a nice boost. Hang seng doing a bit better, the movement in the yen has been driving stocks lower. Underpinning the gains in oil, they continue overnight from the new york session. And oil at 32 and above four west texas intermediate. That lifted Energy Shares in the hong kong session, and you see petro china doing well. Take a look at the top performers, all of them oilrelated names. No surprise there. That story has been repeated across the region. And japan, the biggest oil and is rising, asthat well. We do see casinorelated shares as the outlook for macau is down. And the emergence are among the biggest decliners now in the hong kong session. Let us take a quick look at what is happening across the asiapacific. Nice gains across southeast asia, getting earnings later from singapore airlines. We will be watching that, shares today seeing a modest decline about three quarters of 1 , as we look at that in the singapore session. Up by about 1 now. You heard the nice performance of sharp, rising just about 17 today in tokyo. Watch that on the news, as maybe it is preferred for the investor as it seeks a bailout. Reporting they will receive the preferred bidding rights. Back to you in london. Which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] and upon the Bank Announces its Rate Decision later today come alongside the latest economic forecast. Book of the next move be a cut for the bank of england . Joining us now is Dartmouth College professor of economics, hflower. Anc great to have you on the phone. What do you think is the next move from the bank of england, it might sound like a daft question. More and more people are asking. Danny certainly, they are. The comments by mark carney at jackson hole saying the rate rise will be coming into the rest of the year, they dont look right right now. I think the prospects are pretty strong now that the next move will actually be a cut. Not necessarily negative of are. 5. Ecause rates but the u. K. Economy is slowing, china is certainly slowing. Financial conditions in the u. S. Have tightened. And we see evidence around the world that trade really is slowing. So this is not great. There is obvious concern about the referendum that is coming, and the possibility of brexit. All of those things come together, survey suggesting that, once again, as i have said many times to you, a rate rise is off the table. And the suspicion is that the bank of england today will have to downgrade the forecast, starting to get real again. Especially about things like wage growth. And so the worry is that this may be the turning point downward. Manus danny, good morning, good evening. My question to you would be this of cuttingng impact rates, the fading impact of negative rates we have seen it in the japanese market. Cuty, really, does a rate from such a low level in the United Kingdom have any potential impact . Should we not be looking towards fiscal easing from this administration of the tories . Cut to help a rate the u. K. Economy . Ny fo what happened in 2000 and eight. 8. You had accommodation of fiscal policy loosing, all bankers. The central bank cutting rates and doing quantitative easing. So obviously the question is would you have all of those things going together . For the central bank, they can act pretty quickly. If things do turn that you want to see all of the above. It is not just a rate cut. Thenings were to get bad, you would see presumably a rate cut perhaps go to negative. A move to do quantitative easing at varying times, and presumably a move by the fiscal authorities. But as it sits at the moment, there are no plans whatsoever from the government to do fiscal stimulus. We are still in a world where there is lot of tightening coming. So the central bank has to act alone at the moment, but we will see. Obviously, you are right. You would like all of those things in combination. The question is, would you get them . Brexitou mentioned the word. I will go down that path with you. The banknside of england, the vote that might take place on the 23rd of june. Maybe. What kind of preparation should be going on at the bank of england for this brexit vote at this point . Danny certainly, you want to think about a number of possibilities. The first one, obviously, is at the moment there is some degree of uncertainty. You might be concerned that certainly have to start to think about what would happen if the vote was actually to leave . What were the effects of that be . How long a period with that go on for . They would have to think about what would need to be done if that was happening. So a transitioning as to actual brexit would be something they would have to be thinking about. Obviously, so that it is the unknown. That would be planning for, thinking that there is so much uncertainty going forward, stopping investing but that certainly might mean they would have to put stimulus in. This will be something they are thinking about. There is lots of uncertainty. We know of the discussions going on. The bank would be trying to think about what would happen if actual brexit took place. You sounded very Donald Rumsfeld this morning. The unknown knowns. I want to stick with a few facts, which is sterling is under pressure. 6 in the december, past few months. You you sat on the mpc, know, how aware are this group in terms of sterling and its impact . Where you think we should be about this move . That move in sterling, to a certain extent, some people are saying it is wrapped up in brexit, wrapped up in the worry about the trade balance. Sorry that the deficit he is running. What do you attribute this move in sterling to . Is it helpful . Danny certainly, the central bank would be very mindful of the Exchange Rate. I mean, during my time, we were very conscious that we tried very hard to push the Exchange Rate down. I actually lived in the u. S. And was paid in pounds. My salary went down rapidly as the Exchange Rate went down. The first that is thing. They would be mindful of the Exchange Rate. Of thehink a lot reasoning in some set is the expectation of rate rise here. The markets certainly do not expect that any longer. Obviously, pretty hard to explain shortterm movements in the Exchange Rate. But certainly, that is a help, a level of stimulus, i guess. Anna danny, thank you very much for joining us. There fromng us Dartmouth College, a former member of the bank of england Monetary Policy committee. We are getting Credit Suisse numbers coming through. 2. 4 billion swiss francs. We were waiting on these numbers, of course. The first set of numbers since he introduced that big program of change. They set up a fairly tough outlook just the other day. So what we have is profits before taxes at 2. 4 billion swiss francs. And this was market will want to see what the next state is in the redevelopment of this company. Profit is what we will keep an eye out for here. Of 2. 4 pretax loss billion. Manus the stock hit a 52week low. And as we went into the numbers, we want to see if there is any update on the ipo timetable. He is the man that suggested they will actually release an ipo. So we are just sort of getting into these numbers now. Anna it is in the air, it seems. We have a loss in Credit Suisse, fouryear dividend of . 70 per share. And we have an alternative. It gives you the option to take the dividend or to reinvested back into the company. In terms of money raising by the business losses,ourth quarter you are right, this is where the institutional shareholder is being offered. Trying, one would assume, of avoiding the possibility of having to do a major Capital Raising exercise. That is the interesting point in terms of these numbers so far. The word ofms of the day, back to the story we brought you news of profitability that there would be the dividend. But now we are hearing from the Norwegian Oil ministry. This is important because norway has a 607 stake in the company. Our first thought that went through our mind when we saw this news, what signal do they have from investors . Now, we know. 67 now in favor of the move. Manus lets put it in context for you, about one billion more than the market was looking for. Was 4. 32. Ted loss but the dividend was back in line. Anna Francine Lacqua has been there, interviewing. We will bring you that here right down on countdown. Manus let us get the Bloomberg Business. Nejra shares of sharp have surged, after a 5. 9 billion rescue plan over a rival bid. The forecaster did not give further details. And last week to make the case for the bid. The Company Behind pizza hut, postedd taco bell has earnings above expectations, thanks to rising sales at top rebel and kfc. That comes as the company is spinning off this year. Gopro has fallen, after the company forecasted well below expectations, boeing a disappointing holiday sales. Sources tell us that the Jefferies Group has cut employees in the fixed income products tiedg on to mortgages. Revenue from fixed income tumbled 83 in the Fourth Quarter because of the Energy Market route and weakening demand for energy assets. Cutting investments to maintain dividends, as the collapse in crude erodes prices, norways capital its reduce managers to 13 billion, from a revised 14. 7 billion last year. It came in at 1. 6 billion norwegian krone. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Anna thank you very much. Let us continue the oil conversation now on earnings. Of crudee miss extending the rebound from its biggest drop in almost seven years. Let us get straight to Ryan Chilcote who has been analyzing the oil story. Ryan, oil, despite the rising u. S. Dollar, a great picture it seems. Ryan yes, i a you a big apology. Back manus was knocking the fondue in switzerland, i was telling you fibs saying that it would rise more than expected. That means the glut is extending. Course, that was all wrong. I forgot about the dollar, right . You should have bought that aboveground Swimming Pool and filled it with crude. You would be a 9 . Not only that, but now that we have this bounce in the pound, you cannot use the Swimming Pool. Manus everybody told us, you and various ceos, it was to do with the dollar. 70 would be the supply. Was the dollar. Where do you stand now, make the call . No pressure. Ryan i feel like every single day we have to come up with a Extraordinary Oil prices. I heard from scott who talk about Guggenheim Partners them when you get close to the bottom you get extreme volatility. However, in this case the we do extreme volume. Everybody says the oil price should go up sometime soon. I will hold my breath and by my fuel while i can on the cheap. Anna we will continue to press the ceos that we talked to every day. Many admit they dont know where it is going either. With that in mind, lets talk about the earnings coming through. We have shall coming up. Ryan just the worlds thirdlargest producer, this is the first time they can speak freely and honestly and in depth about their plans. Which they hope to complete the acquisition of bg by the end of the month. Anything they have to say will be very interesting. Of course, everybody on the investor checklist will want to hear the dividend is safe. I think we can expect that. Anything short of that . Beenord of the day has script. Are they listening, i dont know . Fair oing to be ryan they want to hear the basics of how he will maintain the Balance Sheet, the cost cuts billion as a 3. 5 result of this deal. They will want to know, although it is a huge affair, how much fourthquarter profit fell by. Throughe already guided the shareholder meeting, where 83 of the shareholders in shell voted for the deal. We shall see. But the onus is now on ben to deliver. Everybody gave him the benefit of the doubt. It is a longterm play. But they would like to see a little bit of joy in the short term, as well. Anna away from this story, it is certainly a reminder of how it is not quite binary maintaining the dividend. There are other options. Manus and the bank of japans governor kuroda stunned the markets. None of the markets returned the favor. Is now stronger, prompting the question if they will have to go more negative . A source told bloomberg there is no limit to how low it will go. The bank of japan has signaled that it has many options in its armory. It could even lower rates further to 1 , if absolutely necessary, to achieve 2 inflation. However, im sure the current policy is enough to lift japan out of inflation. Manus let us get to our tokyo bureau chief. How likely is a cut to 1 . We have a lot of the bond analysts who have it right, talking about the bond market. Where are the rate analysts in terms of the view . How real is 1 in probability . Share, so we have to remember out kuroda himself has come and said he is definitely willing to do more. He has really pushed against this narrative that the boj is running out of options. It is certainly possible. You just have to remember the tradeoffs get bigger and bigger, and the costs get bigger as you go more negative. But we will get switzerland, the lowerhey have even negative rates. Anna how effective has the certainly been, the currency move is going to look at things . Share, so it is really been disheartening how it has come back from where was before the meeting. I think it really does speak to how difficult it is to change the course of things