Welcome to countdown. Im anna edwards. Lots of data to catch you up on. Manufacturing was stronger than expected, its jobs day, of course, in the United States. Revenue falling 16. 3 , it was estimated to fall by 15. 5 . More of a fall in revenues in that important barometer some say of Chinese Consumer habits. Aside from all of that, it appears to be the sentiments of the large corporates where the economy is right now. The lowest reading since the middle of 2013, basically the indicator about Business Conditions among Large Enterprises in the Manufacturing Sector issued by the bank in japan and in trouble perhaps. This is having ripple impacts on the classes. Over in japan, the nikkei down by quite a considerable margin, by more than 3 , down for its fourth day. Its spreading across asia. More broadly, lets look at the wrisk assets. The yen having in big emoves, ronger against the dahl, the pound. The dollar heading for its work week in two months. Continuing to retreat on concerns about the level of stockpiles in the United States and concerns of oil being below level. A barrel china is showing improving conditions for the first time in eight months, the manufacturing purchasing Managers Index rose to 50. 2 in march ahead of an immediate estimate. The governments fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in. Meanwhile sentiment among japans large manufacturers has dropped to the lowest level since mid 2013. Stronger yen risks eroding in ts undermining efforts the economy. Declining from 12 three months ago and economists had forecast eight in a bloomberg survey. We got nonform payrolls out of the u. S. Later. Ployers added 2005 jobs in a low. Ing at Charles Evans says the Employment Situation is healthy, inflation means there should be continued caution. We are looking at an economy that is close to fulfilling its maximum mandate. Unemployment is below 5 . Thats a very good outcome compared to where he were 10 r the baseball chance of troip thats the reason why i think continued caution is called for, we need to have confidence to get inflation up 2 . The u. K. Economy will shed workers and gain efficiency with the higher median wage, they are pulling up the bail level and hour, the biggest increase in eight hours. Hiphop mowing yul jee jayz is unhappy for his latest purchase. Jayz has touted the service as artists respond to spotify and apple. It trailed its rival with 3 inch users. They deny the claim saying their conducted due dell general general before they acted out top sit. In more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Anna. Anna the last trading day in asia, heidi, it seems that we have had some better than expected datio out of china, things to have captured the markets imagination in todays session . Anna, were very much risk off again. No doubt about it, we had a really vong month which turns of a rst quarter, a bit nightmare into a strong corner. Judging by this day, were not looking that great. T is a sea of red out there. Even the hong kong tending to best reactive to the numbers. The s p down grade to its Credit Outlook for china coming through late yesterday and weighing on sent meant as well. Really seeing the steep losses. Were down to 3. 6 of 100 . As you alluded to earlier, looking at the outlook. Elsewhere, a lot of weakness coming through from jerry as well. There were declines in oil and a number of mining and resource stocks doing badly today after some strong gains in the last couple of sessions. Again, the oil majors that are weighing on sent president here. The jobs determine will determine whether this kind of risk will start the quarter will return. Medics company very favored by mainland cheans tourists, plugging the most in 17 years, down 21 in february, usually ai very busy months in items of storms terms. Home buyers as we have been talking about and prices in china in the big cities have went to 60 over the past 12 months. Anna. Thank you very much. Lets get more on the unexpected jump in chinas gauge last month. Malcolm scott, good to see you on the program. Finally a sign that the stimulus measures are kicking in, or too early to say. The property rebound that heidi just mentioned seems to be a factor, thats a huge part of the economy, it relies on everything from cement, skill, and glass, that should be helping ating with and croot the provider, there was heavy begins, putting it back into the area that signature stalls expansion for the first time in joith as. Legislators the came through and said they will spend more money, the 23iss cal deficit is 3 . The manager towards say they still have room to act, put that together and manufacturing seems to be coming out of the oldrums for now. Etc. Bring in bob parker into the conversation. Good morning. Good morning. Echoing what we were huge from malcolm there, this is friday morning excitement is made of, perhaps, its the small uptake we have seen in the p. R. I. S. Something to smile about . Smile a little bit. I think the point to emphasize is the Service Sector in China Remains very strong and you see that from the nonmanufacturing lows could to 54. The outlook is a continued strength in the Service Sector. Were now just above 50, people are interpreting it and its better than expectations. I think its consist with chinese growth this year coming out at 6. 5 . I dont think the manufacturing ctor is out of the woods completely. The coal mining sector, the hofe old industries, but the economies is continued to be iven by strong services, intrastructure spending. I reiterate that the probability of a hard landing is continue to be very low. He referenced in the chinese economy is going to be going, like it. Or more not happening as previously expected. The timing and ive got the west pacquiao at cheabs consumer that you like to look at. There has been a bit of a bounce, you have been nervous about it. On the consumer sector, someone has to make a very clear distinction. Its a wild statistic, you mention the numbers. You make a distinction between high end spending which has suffered from the last year otwo with the anticorruption campaign. That is ongoing. I would argue that has shown up numbers. A the retail spending numbers over the coming months will probably be plus or minus 10 . Were not going back to the days where conjunction was if we had this conversation three years ago, they were up 15 . Were not going back to that. But mid market consumption remains very robust. Over inside the, when you look the risk sensitive assets, not really going along with this stronger than expected data out of china. The japanese market, more than i cup, does it make sense to you . For a number of reasons. It is difficult to find any evidence of any strength out of the economy. If you look at retail spending in japan, it is weak. I think that deflate fears remain a problem. There is also a concern that r the move by negative one was has to ask question what more can it do and will it do more. Where are the growth boosters for the japanese economy. They arent concerned there arent any growth boosters, export numbers not great and we ave seen with the yen close to 111, 112. Big companies in japan cutting back. Here is a quick look at the day ahead. There is a slew of european date. Well turn to europe, 45 minutes later, the eurozone as a whole and then the u. K. s turn to file its performance. The big number of the united what , and thats exactly were going to be talking about next, how many jobs did america add in march and what is the story with wage growth. That is coming up in a couple of minutes. Anna welcome back, 1 17 in the afternoon if youre walking in hong kong. Ings are murky, the markets, 6 17 in the morning here if london. The Bloomberg Business flash. Walking away from the proposed takeover of starwood hotel. It clears the way for a purchase by marriott. They cited various market considerations for pulling its 14 million bid. Shareholders are scheduled to vote on the offer next friday. Esla c. E. O. Has unveiled the x. L. 3. Able electron he is dan and its part of the companys master plan and there is a need to move into high volume production. Apple has reshuffled its supply chain ahead of the release of its new iphone 7. The move is a boon to a Dutch Company while it searches for a new buyer. The expanded Bond Buying Program today and its pushing toward a record. In the single currency this month, shy from an alltime euros 48. 5 billion next month. Control of the Mining Operations in the country, according to people with acknowledge of the matter, the Investor Group plans to bid for about 80 of the local operating company over the next week at the earliest. Thats your Bloomberg Business flash, anna. Anna thank you very much. The jobs report of the u. S. Later and the number of jobs created is important, many investors will keep a close eye on it. More from new york. U. S. Investors are closely waiting for the jobs data to be released in the friday morning wall street session, 205,000 is the number of jobs u. S. Economies are expected to have created during the month of march. At is based on a survey of economists. That will be consistent with a strong labor market and it would also be a slight decline from the 242,000 jobs created back in february. While it is in decline. Some moderation is expected as the u. S. Guess back to full employment. What is steady is the u. S. Inemployment rate, 4. 9 in february, along with job growth, they focused on wage growth, average Hourly Earnings climbs said to have 2. 5 . Analysts have been anxious for a pickup in wage growth, that would lead to an insight in inflation which has been trailing the feds goal for the past three years. Big focus on friday, is it because it will give a lot of clues in the strength of the has economy as the federal indicated taking a more gradual approach in raising interest rates. Anna Charles Evans said while the u. S. Employment situation is healthy, low inflation means there should be continued caution. Charles we are looking at a economy that is close to filling its mandate. At 2 good outcome than understand for the basic measure of unemployment. Payroll growth has been strong for the last two years, thats good. Reality is low and thats the reason why continued caution is calls for. We need confidence to have inflation up to 2 . Anna speaking with bill dudley talking about the status of the country and economy. Its too soon to claim success. The u. S. Economy is in relatively good shape tired to other continues. We have made consider probable to our employ and employment objectives. Its been shown to be effective. Na paul is bob parker is with us. Bob, 5,000 is the estimate, it could be wages that are in the spotlight. How do you says the strength at the paying story in the u. S. . Its very interesting. Over the last year, we have seen the significant trend decline in unemployment and i stick to the view that by the middle of this year, the unemployment number could be as low as 4. 6 . The thing that is terror interesting, that decline in headline unemployment has not been met by a significant jump in wages. Although the trend over the last year is heading in the right direction in the sense that, we go back one year, it was less than two parents. What has happened is a significant lag between unemployment and wage growth, a whole series of numbers behind it. One factory is underemployed, another is people outside the labor force five years and rickling back into the labor is throw. In terms of the next few months, we will probably see some edging up in wage growth. If you go back to your graph, 2. 2 at the moment. Where are we going to be in july, i would assume 2. 5 . If the inflation is 2. 2 . By midair, 2. 5 , headline inflation which only a few months ago was close to zero because of the commodity price effect. T means a headline creeping up between 1 1 2 to 2 by the Third Quarter of this year. I think the big theme is that yes, wages is roaming up, the whole process is throw. Nna a bit of link between those different metrics. Janet yellen expressing concern that the core inflation number were particularly sustainable. There is some Sustainable Movement there. If you buy the argument that by july, then the core inflation number probably tabilizes close to 2 1 2 . Janet yellen is right, it wont be going up dramatically. I think that we may be having that conversation next year, certainly not today. I continue to think the federal rates go up. I think theyll race rates in june. By the end of the year, a fed returneds rate 1 , a treasury 3 . Around 2 or wait 5. 4 of a wake high. On the program, it is 6 26 in london, the mass market with its new affordable see dan, the if they s in chol what ell under wards and well talk about that next. Anna welcome back. This is countdown. Lets get the bloomberg first word news. Thank you. Chinas manufacturing gauge has jumped, showing improving conditions for the first time in eight months. The purchasing Managers Index rose to 50. 2 in march ahead of a median estimate of 49. 4 it suggests the government fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in. Sentiment among japans manufacturers has dropped to the lowest level since mid2013 as the stronger yen risks eroding company profits. The index of confidence among large manufacturers declining from 12 three months ago. Economists had forecast eight in a bloomberg survey. We get nonfarm payrolls out of the u. S. Later. Employers probably added around 2005000 jobs in march with the jobless rate holding at an eightyear low. Shed. K. Economy will workers and gain efficiency with todays arrival of a higher minimum wage. David camerons government is pushing up the base level of pay 72 sevenpounds pounds 20 an hour. Mogul is unhappy with his recent music streaming purchase. Hes seeking compensation from the previous owners of tidal. Jayz has touted the service as artists response to disqualify l trails itsut tida rivals with only about 3 million users. The Company Denies jayzs claim. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories on the bloomberg at top. Anna thank you very much. Lets check on the markets now. Nejra cehic has the details. Not so much cheer in the asian markets. Nejra ive got the msci asiapacific and tex on the chart. Asian stocks headed for their biggest loss in weeks, after a sevenweek rally. I want to take a look at the wildest water for asian equities since 2011. It was the worst start to the year on record. Stocks prettyan much recover from those losses, but some say the rally has run its course. You can see that drop today. Looking at chinese stocks, we got that surprise jump in the chinese manufacturing pmi, all in50 for the first time months. S p also cut its Credit Rating outlook on the country and we are seeing chinese shares fall today. Chinese shares trading in hong kong. The China Enterprises index falling after it entered a bull market yesterday. We are not seeing much positive sentiment in chinese stocks. Looking at japan, as you mentioned, that drop in the index showing that corporate sentiment has slumped near a threeyear low. Weve seen the yen rise after that, the bestperforming d10 currency versus the dollar today. Stocks dropping for a fourth day in tokyo looking at the topix index, headed for its biggest loss in seven weeks. Finally, looking ahead to u. S. Jobs data. Lets look at the dollar and treasuries. The dollar headed for its biggest weekly decline in almost two months. Seeing treasury yields rising. Ive tracked the 10year yield here, with the treasury rally fading. Bloomberg surveyed some economists. They see yield will rise by yearend, but the biggest Money Managers are split on the outlook for the dollar. Blackrock saying theres room for the color to rise, while Russell Investments group is calling an end to the dollar bull. Ill leave you with that. With nejra cehic of their a few things to watch on the markets. Msci emerging markets, weakest day, down by 1. 3 . The for that, we had some strength. Behind the best gains, could there be some ominous signs that the rally is about to hit a woman . I got to is here hit a wall. Manus cranny is here. Manus correlation between oil and emerging markets. The bottom of your chart, rising correlation from 2013. 2016, theg to trajectory rises. We had a correlation between oil and emerging markets. This is how the e. M. Currencies and the equities really have seen a rally. The correlation is the bottom one in green. What youve got is the title of msci, 22 from a sevenyear low. Local bonds have rally by 8. 3 . The most since 2009. Is it illfounded . Take a look at this. These are the volumes and this is what everybody is saying. Price,fed, rising oil now what youve got here is the volumesllying 22 on well below the average. 44 billion shares during advances in the past five years. This rally is not built on substantial volume. Bob lets break it down market by market. Weve had year to near 20 rally in the brazilian equity market. That is based on political potential for change. Im concerned that that market which was very cheap at the beginning of the year is now tending towards being nearly expensive. A lot of the potential for political change in brazil is discounted in the market. Point number one is that i would not chase this rally in the brazilian market. If we look at the russian market, if you buy the argument that brent stabilizes at 40 a barrel, the russian ruble was very oversold. Sanctions i think will be removed, but they could easily be eased over the rest of this year. I think stillrket has potential for upside. China, the shanghai composite, has stabilized at 3000. The bubble burst last year. We went down to 2500. The Economic Data is looking better. Having said that, i think the shanghai composite, the upside is 3200, 3300. Downside is probably 2600. Indian market, all the data looks great. Indian Economic Growth is probably going to come out close to 7. 3 . There is a problem. The market is one of the more expensive emerging markets in the world. Youve got