Manus welcome to countdown. Anna warm welcome, 6 00 here in london. Now a good morning. Things are a little bit colder in the asian markets, the Asian Session this morning. Fairly flat, oil on the bounce. Helping some of the oilrelated companies in asia. Also waiting on the fed minutes, the markets suggesting what Christine Lagarde had to say yesterday. A long list of risks to the Global Growth story. Manus over the next three months, how much of the risk is priced in . The brexit, the u. S. President , greece back on the board. Aboutine lagarde warning the lack of additional stimulus from the fiscal side. While he have done this morning is try to pull this together really in this chart. The relationship between banks and the market, wti in the market. It is there. We talk about the all country world index. Just a little bit of a relief in oil, and you just see a little bit of stasis, as i would say, in terms of an uptick in the equity markets. But it is all about oil. Let us have a look at the wti. Taking higher, that is the real momentum in the markets. 38. 64, just over 2 stronger. It seems that the kuwaiti is saying a phrase as possible, even without the iranian efforts back on the dohar meeting. Other elements on the risk radar . As bit as big conscious level for the bank of japan. We were back up this morning. To that end, is the market counting the bank of japan for april 28 . Shows us your guns, some sign in terms of stimulus to take a dollaryen higher. The asianpacific index is higher, we are seeing a bit. The s p has not moved 1 in either direction for 15 session. Could the fed minutes provoke a bit more reaction in the markets . Anna we have that later. Let us get big details on the corporate merger, Pfizer Pharmaceuticals terminating. People,familiar with the biggest crackdown on Corporate Tax inversions. Manus well, who better to explain the nuances then nejra. Pfizer pharmaceuticals taking quite a hit from the Treasury Department. It is interesting how the shape falls out. They told us yesterday, we are fine. The break up the never really priced that the deal would fall apart. Nejra look bloomberg was reporng that Pfizer Pharmaceuticals was scribbling to say the deal, after we heard about these new rules relating to tax and versions from the u. S. Treasury. A person familiar has now said that this 160 billion merger of the largest ever in the health care industry, is off. Pfizer will need to pay a 400 billion feet to allergan. It is not the first time in recent history that the Treasury Department has derailed a major drug company deal. The agreement to terminate what wouldve been the biggest u. S. Tax and version at the time. And that deal was terminated because of changes to u. S. Treasury rules governing those tax inversions. And they had pay the breakup fee of 1. 6 billion as a result. Pfizer itself has had other m a setback. In 2014, abandoning the assets to buy astrazeneca. But that was more astrazeneca project video. One shareholder in pfizer said the era of consolidation appears to be coming to an end. Certainly with this deal, it looks like a win for Barack Obamas administration and a loose for big pharma. Anna explaining the details of the story. From longview economics joins us in the studio and the rest of the hour. Chris, great to have you. Tax inversions as a subject of a great line in a story this morning, the first one was in 1982. The u. S. Inversion. Companies, 63 u. S. Have shifted offshore for tax advantages. 42 out of 53 have taken place since 2012. It is been something that has gathered momentum, only a question of time before the government and the u. S. Really took some solid action. Chris particularly this time when everyone is under so much pressure with taxes, becoming much more of an issue, coming much more concerned about it. I think this competitive Corporate Tax across the globe is not helpful really. It would be better if we had a level playing field. Cap Snow Corporation tax at all. Somewhat radical, but i think it is an update in the world of globalization. It does not work very well. Manus we had a guest yesterday, it was interesting, change the rules. Allow u. S. Companies to bring the overseas revenue back on shore. Good for shareholders, good for america, good for the markets. And on profits being equal. Chris that is certainly a good idea. You could do that. The resort cash and profits overseas, they could do it quite well and invested, and drive some growth. Anna is widely from longview economics stays with us. Let us have a look at the bloomberg first were news. Icelands finance minister has promised to stick to a plan to remove capital controls the Prime Minister suddenly resigned, moving to turmoil. Now iceland is comparing for option two free about 2. 4 billion, held by investors in the socalled glacial bond. It is the last hurdle before they can exit capital controls for households and corporations, which were imposed during the financial crisis in 2008. The next corporate default wave comes, and it could hurt investors more than they expect. Bank of america strategists see losses on bonds from default the companies, likely to be higher than in previous cycles because u. S. Issuers have more debt, relative to the assets. Now those highlevels of borrowing meaning that if they liquidate proceeds, they have to cover more liability. Doubts may be mounting about the future of the u. K. Membership in the european union. You would not know it from the countrys tocks. Rather than being punished for lack of certainty, they have become the most expensive relative to others in the region. The valuation of companies on the index has climbed to 50. 5 times of estimated earnings, a record for the stock 600. While still down for the year, shares are beating Everything Else in europe. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 views bureaus around the world. Find more stories on the bloomberg at top. Manus thank you very much. Let us get up to speed with the market. Juliet saly is standing by. A little bit of a relief in oil markets, the mcsi getting an ever smaller game. I was looking at the nik ki. A fairlyeing tough time. Juliette lacking some conviction. We had some better gains about half an hour ago. But talking about that volatility, it has switched back into negative territory again. Really adding to those losses we saw yesterday when the equities led the region lower, that fiveweek low. Generally speaking, we are being boosted by the Energy Players here in hong kong. Also in sydney, higher on the rebound in oil. There has been some good oil buying in korea and in Southeast Asian markets. What you see some weakness still coming through in china. Survey coming through for mark. It was a Better Rating than what we saw in february. But there has been a bit of a switch out coming through on the shanghai market after the lunch break, down 1 10 of 1 . Also this coming through in taiwan, down by 1. 6 . Very much under performing the risk of the rating or because they were on holiday yesterday. I guess playing catchup to the big selloff we had. This is what the regional index looks like at the moment of a pretty flat. You see banks are having this that between oil and gas players and the utilities, which are coming back. Oil and gas stocks up by one half of 1 . And these are the big movers we are seeing in that oil and gas. As i mentioned, shanghai is one of the best performers on the asian market. In shanghai, seeing a little bit but itaker petro china, is players in sydney, australia that are really lifting that sector higher. Looking good in late australian trade. The yen the big story of the day, hitting that 110 level during new york trade. It is just a little bit weaker at the moment, against the greenback. But you can see it also had a very choppy session. Now moving quite mythically against the greenback holding 110. 37. A little bit of a switch around equities. A bit of a better session we saw in asia yesterday. Anna thank you very much. The wisconsin president for primaries have delivered defeat to the frontrunners. Ted cruz over donald trump increases the chances of a contested public and convention in july. Manus Bernie Sanders keeps his White House Run a live with a clinton. Ver hillary the democratic socialist has now won six contests, but still faces long odds to catch clinton in the delegate count. Chris watling is on set to, i suppose, take a deeper dive into the politics of United States of america. 1230 7 the magic number for trump to win. It does not look mathematically that he will get there. Back to throw us into what is called an open convention this summer. I love a good ride. Chris certainly turning out that way. It is bizarre. I thought some of this was interesting as well. Clinton is the only establishment contender in the whole race. And the fact that sanders picked up a little bit, i mean, i dont think anyone has changed odds on the sandersclinton overnight. But we really forget that ted cruz is not an established that figure really. He is a bit of a troublemaker within the republican party. And yet he is seen as the favored candidate, versus crop. Traveling it is comfortably looking from overseas. Anna what is your best Case Assumption . When hes been to clients, what are they assuming will happen on how that influence is the strategy . Chris look at the betting websites. And really, it is heavily favored towards clinton being president still drink it has not moved that much. I dont know what it did overnight, but i dont imagine that sharp a move. Clinton has made some leftwing comments. But i think she will back down after that when she is president. And that is probably not such a big deal. If it is donald trump, or sanders, there is more to worry about in the markets. Manus if we take the risk and go to the open forum, and i am extrapolating here by the way we have our own page here we have on the terminal here everything you could want. Videos at the bottom, latest breakdown in terms of ted cruz and donald trump. But the risk is this. That donald trump goes nuclear, excuse the pun. And he runs independent. Does not get the nomination. And potentially runs amok. Chris then, it is clinton. Athink he is a nigel farage, protest vote. Youll really get above 25 of the electorate. That is the key point here. Ill dont think he causes a problem in the longterm. Anna chris, thank you. He stays with us. Let us get some reaction on the ground michelle wie. Then murphy joins us on phone, tracking what is happening. Good to have you on the program. How much does tonights loss, take Donald Trumps path . Megan quite a bit. We expected him to lose wisconsin this evening. But seeing the reality of this, losing quite handily among really makes it much more difficult for him to pick up the needs to win out right before we get to the primary season. So this is a pretty significant roadblock for him. Additionally makes it more likely that we are going to see that white whale of american politics, the contested convention, in july. Anna in terms of that theention in july, 1237 magic number, do people really believe that is where we will end up in the scenario . And to that end, where does that put ted cruz and that open forum . Dont think this election has been so incredibly unpredictable. Frankly,ides, democratic and republican side. And i think that tonight again made it much more likely that we will get there, just because if you do the pure math, which is what were getting down to, trump has narrowed quite significantly. We move into new york, we are expected to have a big victory there. But again, if the polling numbers dont manus what about paul ryan coming back into the race . Megan right, this is the question on everyones lip. A lot him out there means of technical difficulties yet overcome. Have to get to a stage where you left the rules to get eight states to get on the nomination contest. You currently have establishment figures saying our nominee will be one of the three out there. Not saying the paul ryan has been ruled out. There is not an Establishment Movement that would love to see him have the nominee, but the steps we need to get there are actually quite difficult to see that happening as well. Anna megan on the democrat side, did anything happen last night really change the big picture story around the democratic race . Megan i dont think it changes the big picture in terms of the immense sort of delegate hurdle that Bernie Sanders needs to overcome. Why do think it emphasizes is just how problematic her campaign has then and waiting momentum. Campaignot the kind of you want to see in the shape in april. This is a campaign that needs to really figure out where the momentum is coming from. Where her messages going. Manus well, that will come down where her knowledge and information is. A job. Megan murphy giving us the latest on the president ial race. Anna up next on the program, Angela Merkel rules out on cutting greek that. But Christine Lagarde says she is hopeful in progress. Details, next. Anna welcome back. Looking at a live shot of hong kong harbor this morning, 1 19 in the afternoon. It is 6 19 in london. Let us get the Bloomberg Business flash. Pfizer is terminating its 160 billion merger. Ending the largest ever acquisition in health care, according to a person familiar with the matter. The move comes after the u. S. Treasury said on monday that new rules would limit what it calls in version transactions. Credit suites is cutting nine executives from fixed income and structured products in brazil, ump. An industry sl sergio medardo, is said to be leaving. He follows eight executives from a team who have already departed. Devaluationf has showed up in publicly traded companies, investors are bracing for more pain. Firms80 listed chinese have losses of 7 billion, almost 13 times the amount in 2014. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus thank you very much. Angela merkel has ruled out cutting greeces debt. Speaking after the meeting, Christine Lagarde said she hopes to see progress, soon to get greece back on the path to sustainable economic growth. Christine we are really not where we want to be. Particularly, where greece should be, in order to be stable, in order to be respondus, in order to to the needs. Those are clearly the objectives. We are delighted to hear that the authorities in greece are concerned about the willingness of private investors to invest in greece. Because that underlines precisely what is needed, which is longterm sustainability. Anna joining us live now from berlin is birgit. Great to have you on the program. Is there a danger that greece is running once again into terms of a grexit . Birgit i think it is a bit different this time. Last year, they were very much behind the push getting greece at the border to concede to reform. But this time, they have adopted a bit of a more moderate tone. He has said that they are very optimistic that there will be a deal. And germany is much more flexible, its health, now. They are ready for example to allow greece just to relax a bit on pension cuts. There is a Stronger Political will this time to get a smoother deal. Germany so opposed to a debt cut . This comes from Angela Merkels speech. Not simply a demand of the German Government against the debt cut, but the way we see it in the euro area, we believe it notegally speaking possible. That is not sound like a compromising chancellor. Cutit yes, i mean, a debt is all politically not feasible. She is using a legal argument, basically to make the fact that this is a very much a red line, one that germany cannot pass across. So it is not so much the social democrats who are Coalition Partners, but really in her own party. Like you cannot accept the debt electoratee the would just not support this. So she just simply has to say that. Anna thank you so much. German government reporter. Manus chris is still with us. You listen to that, you have shor a lot of different issues. Angela merkel standing fairly intransitive. How concerned are you that we will get a rerun of greece on the at europe on the edge, as we got last time. What has really changed . Chris i dont think we get a rerun in that sense. It is interesting because the , theest rates the tension politics to cut the debt, and the economists who say you should. I am with the imf. Much debt. Re is too any to write some of it all, move on. The debt is causing enormous headwind for growth. If you write it off and we can get back. I think the imf has a point. Anna the Banking Sector, i know you have had concerns about how the Banking Sector is performing. The Business Models that they have adopted. What that tells us more broadly about risk appetites and all of those metrics. Chris there is basically too much debt in europe. It is running about 5 trillion flat for six or seven years. Having really grown in the prior 15. The problem is that is not growing. So you cannot grow profitability. The system has a lot of nonperforming loans in europe. That is undermining the profitability of the Banking Sector. So we sort of have stagnant banks. They cannot lend. The profitability model is broken, personally, for a whole host of western banks. Anna some of the banks are trading at 40 year lows. Upis you can pull deutsche bank, hsbc, spanish banks, a couple of u. K. Banks, even american banks trading. I think the share price is telling us something. The stock market has a message about banks. The profitability model is not working anymore. Manus one thing that is an indication of volatility, this is shortterm in the yen and sterling. And it is trumping, excuse the daily pun, longterm volatility. The next three months is the real eye of the storm. We have brexit on the agenda, greece is on the agenda, the migran