Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20160624 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown June 24, 2016

And globally. We have been covering the politics and the Market Reaction all morning. We are catching up with the research coming from the banks. Everybody is struggling to work out what is happening. Intot will force denmark intervention. If that is not enough, a rate cut could follow. Denmark might need qe to fight safe haven flows. Simon kennedy was telling us we might the responses from the bank of england, but also global Central Banks. Including some who have been treated as safe havens as of late. Manus the irony is not lost on anybody. Guy will take us through the Market Reactions of the moment. We spoke in japan, suggesting that g7 was ready to open swap lines, if needed. Liquidity will be the key word throughout the day. When you look at some of the market commentators, they are s aying they would not sell if eu markets fall the on 15 . This is about market wit interpretation. Anna lets get to the latest results of the referendum. They started coming in around midnight, u. K. Time. Right out of the gate, it looks like leave was going to have a good night and they did. 370 out of 382 areas reporting. To leave and 48. 33 to remain. Guy johnson has the latest Market Reaction. Guy it is absolutely sensational this morning. We dont see these kind of moves. You can get an idea at the historical sense by looking back at the almanac. This is just a minor blip compared to the move we can see with the british pound, down by 11. 22 . This gives us the magnitude of the move. In south korea, it is down by 3. 84 . But in terms of the standard deviation moves, a bigger move within the nikkei, down by 8. 42 . The asian markets are falling sharply. The british pound is absolutely the standout, and no surprise there. The norwegian currency, absolutely massive in terms of the scale of the moves. The front ednd of the u. S. Curve is all the way down. The u. S. Fiveyear move, it is rolling down the curve at the moment. Is moving down in terms of basis points. People are bidding for the u. S. Curve. You run home to momma in these kinds of situations. It is probably the safest place to hide out. The move is now getting really extreme. Gold, also a very similar story to that as well. What are we going to hear from the rating agencies . Certainly on the move this morning, unsurprising to see that happening. Lets run you through how equity markets are going to open later on. No surprise with the ftse. We think it will be down by 8. 5 . It is going to be an interesting morning to see how the market deals with of the individual components of the ftse 100. So many of them have external earnings and with the pound down by so much, you could make a case for them doing better rather than worth in terms of reported earnings. The for the 100 is down by 8. 5 and we think wall street will open down by 5 this morning. This is what manus was mentioning, regarding to the s p. A couple ofhem days back. They said, we are ready to intervene. He did not rule out further rate cuts. Remember, the swiss franc is already in negative territory. The euro is selling off. We obviously remember what happened. We saw that massive move. The snb has clearly learned a lesson from that. This is the other certain want to show you. Yesterday i was looking at training debt. 120. Bid for sterling was you just dont see spreads like that. The spread is absolutely massive. You can see the pounddollar cable rate overnight, volatility hitting a record. Will be interesting to see how the market tightens that spread throughout the day. We are trying to get an idea of what will be the ultimate settling point of this pair. But i dont think we are any point close to that at this stage. Volatility is absolutely massive and the bid offer, absolutely huge. The market is to find a middle ground. And i think that this stage, given what we can see with this cable volatility, we might be some way away from that. Back to you. Anna sobering news from the u. K. So says the German Foreign minister in a, don twitter this morning. Comment on twitter this morning. Manus also what guy and megan greene have been talking about this policy response. The supply probability of the bank of england the rate cut rises to 50 . Again, the market is getting laser focus on threadneedle street. Anna lets talk about the Capital Trading in the city of london this morning. Matt . Matt yes, it is manic here, for sure. I have been talking to a number of the traders. I have been talking to the ceo of the company here. They have been trading all night. S o, they have not slept. They started trading around 8 00 p. M. Last night and the first started to get an indication that the leave camp might be ahead at midnight. That is when we started to see dips in dax futures and a rise in gold, though not as strong as they expected. Youund 2 00 this morning, o got a look at the votes and saw that the leave camp had more than one million and started to get up to 1. 2 million, whereas aroundmain camp hung one million even. That is when you saw a Real Movement down in cable and futures. They said that moves were bigger than in 1992, starting right away at 2 00. Down 5 in 30 seconds. By the way, u. S. Futures are trading down 5 . That is the limit. They cant trade further down at than that. Expect to see them hold their an open their. There is a sense of disbelief ont he one hand, but they dont have time to think about it because they are doing so much trading. They said it is possible that on sunday they could open up a special session, like they did after lehman brothers. I asked about that. Manus matt, can i just jump in here and ask you. My question to you is, the flow of money going on behind you, is this people trying to really race out of the market . Are there stock moves being executed . Are there margin calls being considered . We know margins have been raised around the city of london. Give us a sense of whether they are exiting the market or saying, it is official, it is happening . Matt right, havent looked into the trading books, per se. I can ask a few of the traders. But what it looks like is everybody was positioned for a remain. They then realized 30 the middle of the night that they had to turn around. They then realized at the middle of the night that they had to turn around. What is fascinating is that so many people stayed up to trade around the clock. Normally they would come in on a friday morning and see a page of trade. Right now they are rolling at such a rapid pace that you can barely stopped to read them. It has been going on like that all might long. It is just an amazing amount of activity. The question now is whether the lsd well continue to allow the willng markets continue to allow the underlying market to trade all day. There is talk about this stopping at lunchtime to give people a chance to catch their breath. Individual stocks can trade here in london, with the limit down at 5 . But there is no Circuit Breaker for the broader index. I would say it is a pretty historic day and the moves are bigger than anything these guys here have ever seen, whether it is the financial crisis, lehman brothers, or 1992. Anna the world perhaps, is divided between those who remember 1992 and those who dont. Thanks, matt miller. Nigel farage has already hailed the victory and called on David Cameron to resign. Look outside of the window. Just look at it, Prime Minister. The dawn is coming up on an independent United Kingdom, something you did your absolute best to prevent. You did it using every organ of estate available to you. You have lost the trust of the british people. Go. Go now. Member from our u. K. Government team is here in the studio. I am not sure how much sleep you have had. Not much sleep the place in this country overnight, i think. Camerons position is not clear. He cant just leave, however. He is got to study the shift. We hear there might be a statement from the Prime Minister. There will be a statement this morning at about 9 00 at the very latest. The problem now is of course, talk of succession. This cannot be immediate. Obviously, Boris Johnson is in favor of David Cameron staying. Manus now that the brexit its official, camerons position is untenable. The problem is he has got to set up a schedule, even if he does resigned today. He cannot just close the door and go away. He is got to study the shift it makes her the Financial Markets are steady. He got to have business as usual. You might try to hang on for a few months. The problem with a successor is this vote has unleashed forces in england. A bunch of people who voted to change manus can i interrupt you there . This is only Bloomberg News flow. Frances calling for a referendum on their position in the eu. Anna the frexit caroline was talking about earlier. You can see these dominoes falling, that is one of the questions we have been dealing with for a long time now. But in the shortterm, what are the next steps . We have been talking about whether article 50 must be triggered. All of this has to do with the relationship with europe. Is this going to be the big focus . Is the next thing to work out what the relationship with europe is next . Or is there too much tory Party Infighting . That is the thing. We dont know who is going to be leading these negotiations. If cameron stays and tries to see this through, that is one thing. But this party is so deeply divided. Not just the tory party. A bunch of these brexit votes were actually from people backing that party. It is an antiestablishment political vote. Boris is boris, but he is the establishment. Manus one of the big factors of this campaign has been around immigration. At the moment, 50 of the u. K. Has voted for the brexit. The real ality of what they were promised, how much of that is deliverable in terms of immigration. Anna they were never promised a number on immigration, where they . At the same time, people were promised a better economy. Lots of the votes have come from lower income groups. Who now think, well, we are on the eve of a better world. This promise will be difficult to deliver. It will be almost impossible to cut these numbers. Anna we will now see what this means and get some details. Thank you, svenja of odonnell. Scholzwe had marcia saying that we are prepared for the brexit. Were looking at money flowing into bonds, sterling and gold. This is the latest comment. This is the chairman at the ric zurich same they are committed to the u. K. And that market settlement will settle over time. We are going to get a plethora of these notes throughout the day. Anna lets get reaction from the rest of europe now. From europe, Caroline Hyde is standing by. We have had shop coming through from germany already. We have had shock coming through from germany already. Caroline as we speak, the german politician, who is the Eu Parliament head, he is saying, the u. K. Has decided to leave and the eu will deal of it. Schulz is saying that overall, the u. K. Is going down a very difficult economic path. Their ishaqi shock and amazement coming from the german politicians here. There is shock and amazement coming from the german politicians here. It is a very sobering day he says, set for the eu and the United Kingdom. Others are coming out saying, damn, a bad day in your. Those are his exact words from twitter. In germany, they also claim that the u. K. Needs to remain integrated, as much as possible. He says, this is a defeat for a reason. Enemies to shocked the german ministers and political players are. I need to remind you just how important germany is for the u. K. But there are some questions being raised. Marco will have a press conference later today in merkel will have a press conference later today in th afternoone. But will we see a speed up from the discussion points from m erkel . The u. K. Was a key ally with the European Union. Already we are having comments coming from france, talking about wanting to call a referendum. The worry is, will this create a domino effect across the eurozone . The euro to want drop like the british pound, that is a message coming from britain. What does all of this mean from a german point of view . There are many german businesses who do business here in the United Kingdom who have a huge presence. Caroline exactly and that is why the asking of the government to step in and limit the economic damage has occurred. Interestingly, the u. K. Is more dependent on germany that germany is on the u. K. For example, germany is the u. K. s number one trading partner, in terms of goods. The u. K. Though, is only the third biggest with germany, about 120 billion euros worth of exports go to the United Kingdom, about 8 of germanys overall exports. It is the auto sector and pharmaceuticals that will be hit. It is Mechanical Engineering that we will see hit. Look up for the likes of bmw on the open. Of course, the travel company is going to be hit by the lack of desire from the United Kingdom to go traveling now. Ne ofould be hit to the tuen o 2017. N 2 we could see 50 billion euros. I believe you with one fact. 9 of the dax go to direct sales of exports to the United Kingdom. That fact, coming from goldman sachs. Anna caroline, thanks very muc h. Sticking with the german scene, london to lose influence as a Financial Hub as a result of this decision. Brexit will not impact insurance as heavily as other markets. Economic growth will suffer in the eu to a lesser extent. It will have severe implications on the economy. Somebody considering these implications is David Cameron. There is number 10, downing street. He will because that are in what this means he will be considering what this means for his political career. Lets get to the latest results, shall bwe, manus . Manus there we go, 57. 1 has voted to exit its relationship with the eu. 48. 24 has decided to remain. Merkelill discuss with how to avoid the domino effect. Guy johnson has the latest on the markets. Guy the volatility is absolutely massive, trying to get a price on this one, it is really quite difficult. The charts are lighting up, but the spread, absolutely massive. It looks like table is fighting around the 134 level. We continue to see asian markets getting absolutely dumped this morning. This is the score we work off of. Is south korea a bigger mover than the nikkei, which is down by 7. 86 . We have seen what is happening with the currency there. The market is currently seeking safety this morning. Look at what is happening with commodities. You can see the front end of the u. S. Curve. In fact, the whole of the u. S. Curve is well bid right now. Markets are pricing out the possibility of a fed rate hike, which will make Janet Yellens life even more difficult. I think this is quite important as well, this chart. This is the cable rate. It puts into perspective the move that we can see this morning. You have got to remember, a few days back the market was very nervous about what the results of this was going to be. I think correctly at that point, it was starting to price in the right idea. We saw a very big rally in cable. When you look at the move over the last few days, and you look at what is happening now, yes, we are starting to find a little bit of firmness coming in. Remember, the market has traveled a long way in only a few days. If i could zoom in right now, i want to show you what is happening with cable. It does seem that we are maybe, starting to find a little bit of level. Roundly 1. 34 but it is absolutely colossal out there at the moment. This is what is happening in terms of the equity markets. As matt miller said, we are limited to what is happening in the states. The s p could open around 5 . It looks like the london market will be called down around 7. 6 . Watch the Banking Sector, we have seen charts absolutely pummeled in asia. We have been talking to people over the last few days. The entire european Banking Sector will be front and and center this morning. The italian banks could be really on the sell list this morning. I want to take you back to this chart as well, the pounddollar cable volatility. It is hitting a record. That should tell you this story, the bid offer is colossal. I watched this last night from a very big provider. They are saying, do not come with us tomorrow morning. We will not want to honor stop losses. If you have to trade, it will be very tough. Really, to not try and execute. Yhe bid offer remains ver b big. The charts look pretty sensational right now, but the market might take a while to find peace. Manus just picking up on some downinghemes, number 10 street, in terms of liquidity. We have this story and have already heard from the bank of japan governor, saying the country currently heads the g7. They have made these calls before, but korea and india are both reported to have intervened within their for exchange markets. Denmark heavily did the same according to analysts. ,ave a look at the krona down 6. 4 . Ona, downgian kr 6. 5 . The markets are preparing for a 50 probability of a rate cut in the u. K. Anna lets get to the business flash now. Reporter yes, there are other stories out there. Big u. S. Banks have won a thumbs up from the fed. All 33 of them have passed the latest rest test, indicating they would be able to pass a severe economic shock. Citigroup performed the best, while Morgan Stanley trailed its peers. The results mark a second year in a row that all firms past the first phase of the annual exam. Earlier this week, janet yellen told congress that the stress test progress is about to undergo meaningful changes. A former jpmorgan private banker has appeared in a u. S. Courtroom after eight years on the run in argentina, where he fled to avoid embezzlement and fraud charges. He pleaded not guilty to 15 pounds after being accused of stealing more than 5. 3 million from customer accounts at ubs in jpmorgan. He is in pleased all with the government. Volkswagen will agree to pay owners of the cars affected by the admissions scandal up to 7,000 and will fund a program to tackle air pollution. People familiar say it is part of a 10 billion settlem

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