Negotiations with the eu. Anna a very warm welcome to countdown everybody. Manus the torch paper of risk is back on the table. What do i mean . The damage is almost throwing fuel on the fire. European Central Banks considering winding down bond purchases before ending quantitative easing. Are they . They emailed a statement to say manus the story says they have not excluded suspending the past of the current sorry extending the current program, at the end date of march 2017, at the price of 480 billion euros per month. Not saying it is ending by giving us clues, talking through the officials at the ecb, how they will do it when they do it . This is when mario draghi said we do not have a conversation about quantitative easing. 0 . Yields back above this is the critical thing. Is it a push to steepen the yield curve . The euro would strengthen, if this is the case, if the european Central Banks are indeed generally considering how to change, how to change and take what bill gross said, you will hear more later, but what did he mean about shortening duration . According to the euro, structurally changed and rallied. Growth and shortened duration come on back above zero percent. That is the critical situation. Anna we have the asian programs talking about how we did see some sort of tapering at the ecb. And the conversation around increasing rates in the United States, what that might do to emerging markets. Let us bring up the risk radar because it shows you where we are on the emerging market story, in terms of what we have an talking about. We have a dollar index for you, near a twoweek high, around the rate increase. The work function the probability at 61 . Jobs on friday. Manus, we have a lack of talking. Manus and the dollar index is at the top. Twoweeksst saw high, oil restarting your dollar a little bit lower. Since we had the opec agreement, rallying by 10 . The stock price declining by barrels, now we have venezuela and nonopec 1. 2 Million Barrels of production pulled off the table. Anna in relation to those central banking stories in the fed and the ecb, gold was interesting. It was up this morning. But yesterday, futures dropped by the most in three years. Was this all because people asking questions about the Interest Rate . We have a great piece on the bloomberg best is actually look to india, what the Indian Central Bank did. Hawkish, thatt so could be the reason we saw that moving gold in session your lettuce to the bloomberg first word news. Heres david ingles. Officials say that the bank is likely to gradually wind down bond purchases before ending the program of quantitative easing. Now, they say that may happen at 10 billion euros per month. But the euro climbed to a three year high against the pound, as mario draghi says the ecb will continue until march or beyond. Lot saysoing a Deutsche Bank is dropping share price, saying the Interest Rate and policy in europe, it may help central bankers to reconsider the approach. He told Investment Conference in new york that you cannot see the pound, by killing the financial system. And one of theses Deutsche Bank reach shares of course are in 2016. Than 50 and the u. S. Vice president ial candidate attacked each other as they went head to head in their first and only debate. Tim kaine and donald trump, the taxes, and email controversy from Hillary Clinton and the role in business,. Governor pence i think he is a very fitting running mate for Hillary Clinton, because in the wake of a season where American Families are struggling in this economy under the weight of higher taxes and obamacare and the war on coal and the stifling avalanche of regulation coming out of this administration, Hillary Clinton and tim kaine want more of the same. Senator kaine we trust Hillary Clinton, my wife and i, with the most important thing. We have a son Detroit Point in the marine corps. We trust three clinton as commanderinchief. But the thought of donald trump as commanderinchief scares us to death. David International Monetary fund has a bit of the the outlook for the u. K. This year, after the u. K. Economy proved more resilient after the brexit vote. And the World Economic outlook, instead growth of 1. 8 , of the 1. 7 projected back in july. That would make the fastestgrowing economy in the g7. But the 27 forecast was cut from 1. 3 , noting estimates saying they attend on negotiations with the eu. The fund also feels the pound needs easing further to sustain the british economy. In the u. K. , the situation is uncertain. E and they have a very large current account deficit. It is unlikely that they can sustain the inward investment that has allowed them run that deficit, so there needs to be some adjustment of the Exchange Rate. And we have seen a starting to happen. Of course, as reality of brexit sinks in, as it has been doing this week, the currency is appreciating further married and it will depreciate further still. David the National Hurricane center has issued weather warnings for florida, as Hurricane Matthew is working the u. S. , having bashed the caribbean married hundred supply seven canceled. And thousands of passengers affected. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. The find more stories on the bloomberg at top. I am david ingles. This is bloomberg. Manus david, thank you very a bit of breaking news. This is the netherlands deal, bidding for delta. A premium and . 30, over the price of yesterday evening. So, they have about a dozen proposals to discuss, using existing cash resources and an external debt. A bit of breaking news. Lets get to Juliette Saly with the asian market rep. Good day. Juliette good day to you comment. I guess as you were saying at the top, all about the central bank concerns, since of changing tide. Is this a policy of easy money, going to be over sooner than expected . We are seeing a lot of weakness coming through an emerging market currency, also bonds and stocks. You see that reflected here. On the other side of course, you have that stronger dollar sing the weaker yen boost Japanese Equities, the nikkei up for the third consecutive session, boosted by Strong Movement in stocks. Port up by 6 10 of 1 in late trade. And also called the rally in hong kong continuing as well, the hang seng up for a Third Session, and continuing is really solid rally we saw in hong kong equities outpacing the rate of the asian region over the last quarter. Australian open is in the red, of course a lot of the material players coming under pressure. And new zealand down by under 1 . We did see global dairy milk prices falling quite significantly at auction, so that had an impact on the key we and new zealand stock. His rendition you some of the stocks, as wed saw golden fall during session. You can see the big players up quite mythically in the sydney session. Certainly some riskoff, but that weaker yen boosting Japanese Equities today. Anna Juliette Saly with the details of the asian training day. And the chicago fed president says the next u. S. Move on rates will most likely happen in december. The nonvoting member is known as one of the most dovish fomc members. He says supporting the next hike not be an easy decision, and want to see solid evidence of inflation rising before making a call. Indeed, i would prefer that at the time we make the next move, fomc communications would also indicate that subsequent increases will depend on seeing such changes and inflation indicators. I believe this would help assure the public and the committee seeking conditions to support attaining our 2 inflation target sustainably, symmetrically, and sooner rather than later. Manus this comes as the imf has warned advanced economies will remain along a disappointingly low growth path. And the latest update to the World Economic outlook, the Organization Says rising political tensions over globalization are threatening to derail the world recovery. Global growth rate is 3. 4 . The imf struck a more positive note on the emerging world, however saying the larger markets will be exiting recession. G . joining us now, good to have you on the set. Lena, give us your thoughts on the fed as we continue to tune into the information we get on when we see the rate hike. Is your money on december . Lena my money is on december, yes. We have seen a subtle shift in the fed medication with the market, against the back of a market that is still not wholly convinced that a fed will be tightening this year. The probability of that fed future pricing has come up to about just over 60 , but it is still not anywhere near close enough, Strong Enough as it should be. And on the other hand, market have been doubting the feds protections that we will see two rate hikes next year. They have work to do in bridging the critical of the gap over messaging, but we have here is that while the fed does remain datadriven rather than datadependent, it has gravitated away from gdp topline payroll guidance to focusing on the balance of the main supply on the back of the economy. With the fed is saying is basically, look, there is room to raise higher. And the labor market and it is resilient, a more positive growth picture that we see already. That the current market rate is somewhat below the neutral rate, meeting there is somewhere for rates to rise before they possibly become anywhere close. Manus i think the latest from evans is perhaps to reconsider the note that they sent to the market, and terms of what they look at. I have one for you, lena. If youreof the day, out there on the bloomberg terminal, this is the Balance Sheet in purple. The white line is 10 year yield, 1. 8 . The bottom line is the flatline of course, extending the period of time. Never before has there been such a dovish hiking. It jpmorgan and Goldman Sachs all calling it, at 2 . Will be break out of this . Main theme of my research for the last decade has been lower for longer. In fact, it has been sort of a running joke in the office with clients that every, january since 2009, the consensus has been looking for higher fundraising you go lower. So, however, that is the structural Strategic Point of view. Tactically however, october is a month where we should see the switch from long and bonds to equities. And we are seeing it bottoming out in inflation. Manus what does that do, what is it take . Lena it has to steepen the yield curve. Manus, to your point, this is a month that has all of the ingredients. We have a more resilient Global Growth environment. We have inflation bottoming out with oil prices and opec, boosting the trade price war, signaled by the decision, providing some underlying structural support for oil prices. And we have valuation, negative yields negative yields in the market, and they are no longer the defensive strategy. They are the lower yield come ashore risk strategy. The imfteresting to see warning about the Political Risk global recovery. Others would add in the risks around low Interest Rate environment. Your increasingly think of an effect of companies trying to address this low for this long. Lena absolutely. One of the remarkable things is that on the street from this has not happened for this drive towards nationalization and antiglobalization is him protectionism. And all my clients have been doing the last three months is working with clients, preparing for the end of globalization. For, you know, stronger National Legal borders, and what that will have entree floated youre absolutely right. What we are seeing in europe with the shifting political sentiment, we are seeing in the runup to the president election in the u. S. , is the fact that antiestablishment voters are rising. And this is voting against trade. Manus there is a wonderful line in irish that takes me back, myself. Me, me, me. Talking about global trade, not me. [laughter] anna it is going to be a busy day. Let us see what is on the radar for us in your day ahead. At 9 30 am u. K. Time, monetary policies will turn to the september reading of the composite pmi. Manus chancellor Angela Merkel will speak to the economy at a trade and Services Economy in berlin. Anna and we get a read of u. S. Ahead ofte employment, that crucial friday payroll number. Coming up on countdown manus war of words, u. S. Vice president ial candidate go headtohead. This is their first and only debate. We are lied to the states with the latest. Anna and the ecb tells will gradually wind down bond purchases. Manus and google proposes to take on apple as it launches the pixel smartphone. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back. This is countdown. 19 in london. 1 19 where the hang seng is up. Let us get the first word flash with david ingles. David thanks, anna. Google is a marking on a wholesale revamping of the phone strategy, debuting a pair of handsets that will go headtohead with the iphone for the first time. The pixel in the larger pixel, and it was engineered and tested inhouse. They feature a virtual camera, and the first to post androids new operating system. Taiwan will build a new central smartphone, assembling apple with something of a rewrite in strategy, whose own branded phone once actually claimed 90 of the smartphone market. Sales plunged 70 in the last five years. Now, written crashing out of the european Single Market could cost banks and associated businesses almost 40 billion pounds in lost revenue. That is according to a report in the u. K. The report warns that almost 70,000 jobs and 10 billion pounds are at risk. That is according to people familiar with the matter. And that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus david, thank you very much. Now, the u. S. Vice president of candidates have attacked each other as they went head to head in their first and only debate while tim kaine slammed the donald trump on his taxes, mike clintonsn hillary email controversy and americas role in syria. Wake of pence in the the season where American Families are struggling in this economy, under the weight of higher taxes and obamacare and the war on coal and the stifling avalanche of regulation coming out of this administration, Hillary Clinton and tim kaine want more of the same. Senator kaine we trust Hillary Clinton. My wife and i, we trust her with the most important thing. Son the floyd in the marines right now. And the thought of donald trump as commanderinchief scares us to death. Anna the debate to place in farmville, in virginia. Joins us. Kevin, good to see you. Was there an obvious winner . Who came out on top . Kevin well, i think all of the strategist i talked with including the democrats and republicans point to a victory for governor mike pence. Here is why. He delivered a much more measured performance. He also was able to attack tim kaine and Hillary Clinton in particular on the clinton foundation, as well as her time at the state department. Now, that being said, tim kaine did try to get under mike pences skin. He interrupted him frequently, more than 50 times throughout the 90 minute debate. But he also did something else. He tried to get mike pence to defend the Donald Trumps most controversial rhetoric. Something that mike pence did not do. And he is already facing criticism for it today. Manus kevin, thank you very much. Kevin in farmville, in virginia. G economics is still with us. And a donald Trump Victory, it to be back to when this country voted for brexit. This is the night the market voted yes on abrasive victory. Should we begin to prepare . The risk reversal suggests that people are prepared to pay for call options street should we prepare for brexit, should we prepare for a risk moment of a donald Trump Victory . Lena the possibility of a market shock in the final quarter of this year, whether it is due to a Trump Victory, which i think is underpriced, or due to negative results in europe or another antiglobalization antiestablishment vote is very strong. And the fact that the yen broke 100 on brexit, and the market is still i think underweight on yen, in terms of valuation, it shows that really the dollaryen Exchange Rate has become a lightning bolt for globalization. And of course, political polarization, the rise of extreme candidates and extreme ws on the ground has become something i think we should be getting used to in 2017. Anna a lot of the polling does not so much in between the candidates, yet you say the markets are underpricing a truck victory, despite what we saw in the u. K. And the surprises that can be delivered in terms of certain more popular sides of politics. While using markets are underpricing it . Lena the u. S. Election in terms of the brexit vote the chances of seeing a sharp, riskoff move should be some in that investors are preparing right now married the reason why we are not seeing this right now is because it is hard to imagine the cultural clash embedded in both economic terms, in this preelection sort of debate. And that is to the extent that clinton or the remain campaigners in the day represented the liberal middleclass that bought into the