Filipinos go to the polls today. For continuity or change from manila . Gie welcome to first up i am angie lau. Lets check in on the markets in the asiapacific. New zealand, we are seeing losses of one third of 1 , but its a stronger new Zealand Dollar at . 68 after chinas exports show signs of stability. Were counting down to the open in australia and japan. Futures in australia, pointing slower open. Ally lets get over to japan, checking futures trading in chicago, pointing to a higher open, this after the nikkei 225 came back in the red after a threeday holiday. It was a it was one quarter of 1 down. Weve got the japanese yen weakening. Of course, no trading in the philippines because it is election day. The latest trade and Foreign Exchange data from china point to more stabilization, but signs are modest. Weve got Stephen Engle going through the numbers. Stephen its modest at best definitely. Its not a huge recovery. The numbers are not falling off the cliff like they used to be. We need to break it out into yuan terms and dollar terms. The exports were up in yuan terms but down in dollar terms because the depreciation in the yuan has flattened out the gains. Theres exports in your wand terms. March was an aberration. You are coming after the Lunar New Year holiday. Trade is extremely distorted. We look at april to get a clear sign a stabilization, and yes, in yuan terms, up 4. 1 . Lets change the page. In u. S. Dollar terms, it was again back down. The yuan depreciated against the dollar. They had the revaluation in august, and the overall trend has been depreciation. The recovery, we could say, is tepid at best. The chinese leadership is not looking at exports. Ng therd from li keqia estate via state media. Measures should target increasing employment and income. Lets look at imports, because that is a very good snapshot of domestic demand. It continues to go down. Terms. In you one 18 months in a row, down for imports. This should be 1. 7. This chart is not doing me very good favors. It should be about here. 5. 7 down. Changes in dollar terms, similar picture, down 10. 9 in dollar terms. Import domestic demand, still week. Angie what about China Foreign reserves . Stephen this is the First Time Since june of 2014 that the fx reserves increased. You know they have been coming off a high of 3. 9 trillion. We had the revaluation, in august, and subsequent month of mixed signals from the pbocterms. Import domestic demand, still week. Angie what about China Foreign reserves . And chinese authorities. The outflow surge at the end of last year, and you saw the reserves dwindle. 3. 22. Barely, ok . Its an interesting trend. There seems to be some confidence in the one yuan. Lets look at the dollaryuan. That is unchanged so far this year. Buts as flat as a pancake, this is kind of a veneer. Its kind of a fall stability in the yuan. Look at it versus the tradeweighted basket of the 13 biggest trading partners, and you can see how the yuan is depreciating year to date. Angie Stephen Engle, thanks for that. Pulling is underway in the philippines with voters choosing a new president as well as lawmakers at national and local levels. The focus is on the presidency, and the selection is our giggly the most important in 30 years. Haslinda amin is standing by for us in manila. What is the mood like where you are . there is a sense of apprehension, even trepidation and uncertainty. City, aalked around the lot of people said they were under start undecided, and you can understand why. Its a desperate list of candidates. Leading the polls, we have duterte, and men who says if he will become president , he will kill criminals and leave them in the bay of manila. He is seen as being a vigil on take, renegade leader. Do we want a president of that nature . Also among the candidates, grace poe, a senator in her first term who is seen as being an inexperienced leader when it comes to executive powers, executive decisions. She is not without controversy either. She has spent most of her adult life in the u. S. She even gave up her filipino citizenship to be a u. S. Citizen, and that has been in question, although she has been cleared by courts to run. When it comes to philippine elections, its more about personality as opposed to policies, and there is a sense of a rejection of the usual leadership. People here are tired. Even though the country has seen 6 growth in the last six years, when it comes to wealth, it has been uneven distribution, and many people have not benefited from the growth. More about personality rather than policy. Angie there is a lot at stake here with this election. What is the significance . More importantly, what is at stake is the economy. 6 growth, and economy that has gone from junk rating to investment grade, and ihs recently said this is an economy which has the potential to be a 1 trillion economy by 2030, but there are many challenges. 26 of the nation still lives below the poverty line. When it comes to ease of doing business, its not doing too well. , theut of 193 nations worst in all of southeast asia. Despite a young population, those from 18 to 34, they form the majority of the voters today. ,espite the young population there is a lot of potential, but that potential has yet to be materialized. It will take a good leader to maximize those opportunities. Haslinda amin in live for us, good morning, as the philippines gets to the polls. We are going to be live in manila throughout the morning for insights on the crucial election. Richard haight darian from dale Lasalle University will be joining us in 30 minutes. To30 minutes, we will speak john forbes from the American Chamber of commerce in the philippines. In trending business , were going to hear from First Grade Holdings president. Checking other headlines for you in asia, australia is officially in campaign mode, entering its Longest Campaign since the 1960s. Voters will go to the polls on july 2 after Malcolm Turnbull called an election seven months after seizing power in a liberal party coup. The former investment banker is looking to stamp his authority on the leadership in a cycle, which has seen australia churned through six Prime Ministers in a few years. The new rba governor wont have long to settle in. Inwill succeed Glenn Stevens september, and jpmorgan says he may have to cut rates to 1 or less in his first three months after the rba admitted it will miss the bottom of its core inflation target this year. The Commonwealth Bank of australia has declared on Unaudited Third Quarter cash profit of 2. 3 billion aussie dollars. That is 1. 7 billion. The bank joined its competitors in reporting higher changes charges for bad or doubtful debt. The debt charges rose to 427 million aussie dollars from 256 million a year earlier. Hasgreek government says it enough support among lawmakers to approve pension and income 6. 2reforms as part of a billion dollar package to secure further aid from the imf. Parliament debated the issue the day before finance ministers are set to review the status of the bailout. They are going to consider whether to release the second installment of the 90 billion rescue package following a sixmonth delay. Crude is on the rise this morning on the back of fires cutting protection in canada and the announcement of the new oil minister in saudi arabia. Brent crude oil , 46. 21 per barrel. The new oil minister says he intends to maintain policy to defend market share. Weve got Stephen Stich and ski joining us from tokyo. What does this say about the prospects of a production freeze . Steven he is going to be keeping with the current policy saudi arabia has held for the last few months. The freeze will be unlikely unless iran joins. If things continue as they have for the last few weeks, a freeze most likely wont be happening anytime in the near future. That being said, over the thatnd, iran signaled their production was hitting where they would like to see it. From analysts i have been talking to, they think perhaps ath a fresh face, there is slight or chance for a freeze during negotiations with iran. If you look at what the new minister has been saying and the has hoarded arabia the last few months, to say there will be a freeze one way or the other is difficult this early on. Angie at these prices, is a freeze even necessary . Stephen thats a really good point. It seems that the market has aready accepted that perhaps freeze isnt necessary, and saudi arabias strategy, which is pushing production higher, might be good for the market. Looking at itare is, the higher saudi arabia pushes production, that means nonopec numbers members like shell producers in the u. S. Cut production. That cut in u. S. Production this year, the iaea expects the United States will cut 700,000 barrels, and that could be bullish news for the market if it comes to fruition. Perhaps the market doesnt need a freeze, and we might be in a postfreeze sort of era with opec and saudi arabia especially taking more of the market share. Angie thank you so much for that. Coming up, our next guest sees globalof further volatility this year. We are going to be live in melbourne to hear from the chief economist coming up next. Kong, 5 15 in hong p. M. In the prairies of canada. Wildfires in canadas oilsands region have knocked out more than one billion barrels a day of production and are threatening to spread to neighboring saskatchewan. At least 80,000 people have left their homes in the town of fort mcmurray, further damaging an economy suffering from cheap oil. Canadas Biggest Energy company, suncor and others, including phillips 66, have pulled workers out of the area. North Korean Leader kim jongun said the Party Congress he would not order a Nuclear First strike. He told delegates that the north was a responsible state and would use only weapons if attacked. Kim a fiveyour economic plan, north koreas first since the 1980s. Its intended to revive a stagnant economy and improve manufacturing. It also calls for better relations with the outside world. Reports from india say authorities have asked interpol to issue notices for the rest of [indiscernible] hes living in the u k and is said to own about one point 4 million connected to his defunct airline. India has asked the British Government tount extradite him. Powered by overturning 400 journalists in 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. Key eventsa look at that may drive asian markets this week p rejoining us from melbournes alan off to her, chief economist at now. Are these signs of stability, or are we still on shaky ground . Alan i think there are signs of stability. This week, we got the Inflation Numbers, and we are so it is 0. 2 and said of 0. 4. What you are starting to see is sort of a bottoming off, particularly in the secondary industry. Pmisof the pm eyes dont look great, but at the end of the day, i would say the idea that china would get Something Like 6. 5 is probably right. You will need some more stimulus, and the chinese come if you look at it in terms of their credit numbers, they are up around 40 . Angie the recent data, the exports and the foreign reserves also indicate that it is the rmb helpedty, the weaker rmb boost the export number. Alan yeah, thats right. Careful. To be really what it is really saying is if you look at it in terms of u. S. Dollar terms, it is slightly down, but generally, you are seeing it is contributing little bit to growth. Also, there is probably some net outflow. Hadink the idea that people 36 months ago that china was about to fall through the cracks is probably settling down a bit. Its not great, but china is still the largest economy in the world, and it is still traveling north of 6 . Thats not terrible. If you are a miner or relying on commodities, this secondary market in the chinese economy is very weak. Angie speaking of minors for australia, this has contributed to that low inflation gauge that stoke the rba to action. Will we see more of this . Alan i think what really happened is you had a core inflation number, both in quarterly and 12 month terms, radically different from what we were expecting. It is at 1. 5 over the last 12 months. We havent seen a number like that basically since 1983 when we first started to collect the data. Two things happened. Number one, wages havent increased much at all. In real terms, they are going sideways even though the economy is doing well and unemployment is coming down. Over the last few months, as the Australian Dollar went down, you didnt see any pass through. Going forward, you are going to get Something Like 1. 5, 1. 75 by the end of this year. As au are targeting central bank, you have to do something, which is why we changed our view last week, and now the markets have priced in one. Er i think they will wait and see. I dont think the first live meeting is probably until august, and the reason you wait for august is you get your next reading for the cpi or Inflation Numbers at the end of july. It could well be that this Quarterly Movement we had last time was a rogue number, but i think it is 5050 at this stage whether you would cut again. Angie inflation, deflation, whatever you want to call it, that is what they are facing, and we are also going to see what kind of talks happened in the march meeting when they released their Meeting Minutes at 7 50. What will you be watching for . Alan we actually were expecting and cutuse some more qe their rates again. We will be looking to see why they didnt do it. We think the economy is really struggling. We will just wait and see. 5050, but we did think they would give some more stimulus, and we think ultimately they will give more stimulus in the months ahead, although the timing is difficult, and that is what you will be looking in the minutes to see. Angie it surprised a lot of people. What do you think of the global tone of the markets right now . The markets globally are much more settled than they were at the beginning of the year. Basically when i look at growth momentum, what i am seeing is an economy globally that is not getting any worse but is not getting any better. Roundabout 2. 75 . We are significantly lower than the imf, which said 3. 25 . We are more bearish. We are not seeing any sign of an increase in momentum. The International Organizations have still got to raise r osycolored glasses in terms of where the world is going. Angie the world always looks better. Alan oster, chief economist at nab. Coming up, australia is set to go to the polls in july. We are going to be live in sydney for the latest when first up continues. Stay with us. Angie welcome back. You are watching first up. Australia is officially in election mode, entering its lungs campaign in decades. The vote will see all seats in both houses of parliament up for grabs for the first time in 30 years. Lets get over to paul allen in sydney. If the Prime Minister had called this vote a few months ago, the government probably would have had a sure bet for election, but now its much closer. Thats right, angie. When Malcolm Turnbull took the job of tony abbott last september, voters had high hopes for what he might achieve, but none of it eventuated. A former Prime Minister said Political Capital eventually goes, so you have to make sure you spend it on something worthwhile. Malcolm turnbull never really spent his at all on the promised reforms were any economic measures he sought to bring in. To be fair, it was going to be pretty difficult, because the senate is dominated by micro parties. Its hard to pass legislation. Now. Is why we have this both houses are up for grabs, and the hopes is the coalition would retake the government, and hopefully this time, with a more compliant senate. That is the theory anyway. Angie what of the latest opinion polls . Paul its 5050 if you look at the opinion polls, but that doesnt really paint the picture for you. The system isnt proportional. School first past the post. You have to win it seat by seat. Take a look at this chart, and it illustrates the struggle the Opposition Labor Party faces. They need to win at least 19 seats to regain the government, and you have to ask yourself, are there 19 marginal seats in the country . Thats going to be tough. Despite all the problems, Malcolm Turnbull remains politically very popular when compared to the Opposition Leader bill shorten. Bill shorten was involved in the downfalls of both former Prime Ministers kevin rudd and his successor julia gillard. Be government doubtless will reminding voters of his history, but we will be hearing much more about that over the next 55 days. By australian standards, thats a very long election campaign. It is the longest since 1966. Angie you are going to have fun, paul. Coming up, digging deep. We are going to take a look at how rio hopes its bet in monrovia will pay off for the country and company. Angie angie it is 8 30 and tokyo, and in 20 minutes from now, we are going to find out what policymakers at the boj when they kept rates unchanged, no stimulus, and surprise the world. We are 30 minutes away from the open of trading there, south korea, and australia. You are watching first up. China is showing signs of stabilization after its first backtoback in in foreign reserves in two years. Exports rose modestly in yuan terms despite falling in dollar terms. Aprils numbers follow a much more promising set of data whent rates unchanged, no stimulus, and surprise the world. In march, which were likely exaggerated by the Lunar New Year