And the problem with loose Monetary Policy. We will break down the ecb decision on rates, and the entire mario druggie News Conference draghi News Conference. We count down to the ecb decision. The opec meeting in vienna. Wall street awaits the latest jobs data. Kick it off, less than 45 minutes away from their decision. Lets check in with the team leader, i am told the News Coverage will be watched closely to get the forecast. Interesting,ing is whether there today, no fresh stimulus probably, likely to show the inflation has not changed since the last projections in march and that is something of a disappointment because the last forecast did not include the ramp up of monetary stimulus, extra bond buying, negative loans and another cut in Interest Rates. A signal the ecb is starting to struggle. It will always say it can do more but it wants governments to play their part in helping the euro recovery. Investors will look for more detail. Nots past june, 2016, i do have a date and size, any clues . Not likely to be a big part, not shown change the total buying, the ecb can spread his money more broadly although the volume will not change. That will be closely watched, investors want to know when the Program Kicks off or whether it has already and we will look for more details and bank vending programs and very closely at gjore president dra criticizes government for not pushing Structural Reforms. Time, theeciate your euro a little but stronger ahead of the decision. The decision from vienna where opecs meeting. What is your reporting about what opec is discussing and when the decision will come out . The decision could come out at any time. What the ministers want to be sure of, when they do make a decision, it is one that shows unity. They are well aware there are people were written off opec and whatever they do, they need to make sure they are all on the same page, whether they bring back the Production Targets they abandon at the last meeting in december. Their main way to influence oil prices they have been using for 35 years that they do not have no, or whether they finally point a new secretary appoint a new secretary general. If they fail to do any of that, that would be bad but they want to deliver something that shows they can decide some issue. Any past, saudi arabia the driver in the meetings, a shakeup in the oil industry, has that change these meetings . It just got loud. Irens] those are some sirens. That is because they know the open meeting will be explosive. Opec meeting will be flaws of. Explosive. He wants to repair relations with the other members of the group. The first amongst equals. The most powerful guide in the room but hein the cannot make decisions on his own. Then the saudis will not get anywhere. The other most important person is the Iranian Oil Minister, he has to win him over. He has failed to do that so far. The saudis are folding desk loading i talked to their minister and they said it is not important they do that but they would like to get that kind of agreement. The Iranian Oil Minister was saying we need individual country quotas. Potentially irreconcilable differences. Markey want to make their at this meeting and at this meeting edit opec, he has to bridge the differences, particularly with the iranians. Thank you, in a fairly noisy vienna. We will get more data ahead of tomorrows jobs reports, for more lets bring in a senior u. S. Economist. P and initiald jobless, what are you looking for . Analyst will be looking for the signs that steady growth in jobs continues. Consumerssential for to continue growing at a steady and be fede fed once the consumer to support growth this year and that will allow them to continue the rate hikes at the desired pace as they mentioned. Will probably see a rebound, a modest rebound because we saw a considerable decline in the previous month and the monthly volatility might suggest that we could see a modest rebound. Adp isory is a guide, not a good leading indicator in what we should see any jobs report tomorrow. Today is a prelude to tomorrows jobs report, what do you think the fed will be looking at and what could be the sign of trouble in the economy or real continued strength in the labor market . The fed will be looking at the underlying pace and job creation because tomorrows number might be affected by the rise rising strength in the isths of may and the fed very well aware of what was going on and they know the facts ls said weike, the b might have an impact of 35,000 jobs on the payrolls numbers. Mayistory is a guide, we see a bigger impact, something more than slowing from the three months moving average base and the previous three months, currently running at around 200,000 jobs. The fed will probably look through this number and look at the pacelying face and of wages. A big day today, potentially bigger tomorrow. Thank you. Now we look at the markets. Potentially a huge couple of days for the markets, this is how we trade, in asia, down, that down by two points risk off japan reflected in the fx market with the japanese yen stronger by half of 1 . Asia but things firmer in europe. The stock 600 led by the bank, struggling shrugging off todays losses. Brentity markets, rent going nowhere. Now at 49. 76. Crude going pretty much nowhere ahead of the opec decision. Lets look at stocks to watch. Apple sharesket, slightly lower after Goldman Sachs is trimmed estimates and its price target on lower smartphone growth, and list site a report calling for 5 growth in 2016, 4 in 2017 as compared to 10 in 2015, a big slide. The estimates are still above consensus enterprise target suggest the stocks could move higher by more than 25 , nonetheless shares lower on this apparent housekeeping at goldman. The airlines and the travel sector, a rough year for the u. S. Airlines with American Airlines and United Airlines down more than 20 on the year but today some of the european ,irlines, lufthansa, air france trading higher as an Industry Trade group saying 2016 mobile profit could be higher by 3. 1 2016, perhaps this will help the u. S. Airlines as the session opens today. Johnson johnson, shares higher by 10 on the year, unchanged in the premarket on the news that they are buying Vogue International 43 . 3 billion, a privately held company focused on fair and personal care products, the deal is set to close in the third quarter. An update on what is making headlights outside the business world. Tonie Hillary Clinton said unleash a major foreignpolicy attack on donald trump. She gives a speech in san diego to kathy likely republican president ial nominee as unqualified and dangerous. Has wants to fresh problems for the Affordable Care act, the Largest Health insurer in texas wants to raise its rates on individual policies by an average of nearly 60 , a new sign president obamas of care overhaul has not solved the price hike problem. Texas is not alone, citing financial losses, many insurers around the u. S. Are requesting bigger premium increases for 2017. British Labour Party Leader jeremy is warning a vote for the uk to leave the eu would threaten workers rights come he says regulations have entitled 26 million workers to 28 days of paid leave per year, delivered right for temporary and parttime employees, and 340,000 women the right to maternity was ait be Prime Minister questions in a tv special tonight, focusing on the economic dangers of drugs it while supporters brexit while supporters are focused on the threats from immigration. Corbin,this from jeremy a vote to leave means a conservative government would be in charge. They do not agree on everything. Overg up, the ecb on that, 30 minutes away from a Rate Decision, we will hear from the Central Bank President and see if there will be an increase in the euros on inflation forecast. Here for the flower previewing and reacting to all of the events this morning and later. He will join us to talk regulation, dodd frank, and much more. The ecb said to announce its key decision on Interest Rates at 7 45 eastern. Taking a look of his Morgan Stanley index, the market does not expect the ecb to move in the other direction for four years, no hike for four years. Joining us now is the Deutsche Bank international economist. Treading water, is that the News Conference . This report written by our team in london is a very good description of what is happening, they initiated a lot of ideas and have implemented some of them but some we do not know much about, treading water is the best way. We need to see more how things are working and hear more about the details. That chart, the idea we could be waiting for more years for rate hikes, inmate will be afte Mario Draghis term at the ecb ends, what does that mean for the ecb . Ultimately, a lot more work to do. Started hiking now, six months ago, now having a liger for or five years, stunning, a divergence between what the ecb and the Central Banks are doing. It is telling you that the situation is not good. It tells you that something needs to be done. What they have done, negative Interest Rates have not been helpful. How critical do you expect him to be, about a low growth environment, do you expect him we also need structural reform, there are limits to what he can do . With negative Interest Rates, not helping. Loan growth is to week. Is still weak. That is why the burden is so much more on the other parts. Negative Interest Rates are disintegrating the politicians to do the right thing on fiscal policy and structural policy, very counterproductive in terms of what you want to achieve to get the economy going faster. If there were Structural Reforms, where would they come from, member state or on the europewide level . The member state level. Since the ecb did negative Interest Rates, we have seen countermove that many governments have started to relax and say, now that the ecb is solving our problems, why should we do Structural Reforms, why do not we just let the ecb do the work. We need to see more of the structural reform side, also on the physical side because Economic Policy does three things, Monetary Policy, fiscal policy, we have only seen Monetary Policy for the last two years. What is happening is remarkable, japan, apple, you will see in at number 35 is the Swiss National bank, some Central Banks doing creative things, how big is is that buying corporate debt and on the margin, what does that do to help them reach their mandate . In some sense, Central Banks are getting more and more creative, more and more desperate and to try to help economies along and buying Corporate Bonds can help a little bit on the margin but we are getting to the bottom of the toolbox where we are scraping and saying, should we do this a little bit and some things very creative and have a small impact but to believe that this is a big bazooka that will solve all the problems would be misguided. He is sticking with us and will be back later. Coming up, he has been called the most powerful man in banking, he joins us to discuss banking regulation, monitor policy, and much more. In roughly 25 minutes, the latest Rate Decision from the ecb in vienna, will inflation forecast given outside surprise . 24 minutes away from an ecb decision. Futures in the United States stable, dow futures down by 12 points, snp futures down by a 10th of 1 . Switch of the board, the other asset classes, wti four days of losses, now five, 40. 98. Brent crude with a 50 handle. A stronger euro, one dollar . 96. He has been called the most powerful man in banking, the Federal Reserve governor began his term in january of 2009 at the height of the financial crisis and has taken the lead in federal banking regulations. We are pleased to welcome him on bloomberg go and bloomberg radio. You have overseen a host of new regulations for the banks in the past seven years, where do we go from here, what is left to be done . Lot,we have been doing a both to implement dodd frank regulations and to put in place a new approach to supervision of the largest Financial Institutions of the country and we are at a point where it is appropriate to step back and ask ourselves, three questions, the setow effective has of regulations and supervisory innovations we have put in place been in achieving the goals of safe and sound banks, addressing the too big to fail problem and achieving Financial Stability more generally. Second, to what extent have the things that have been put in place created costs that are disproportionate to the amount of safety and soundness or Financial Stability we are buying. The first question is might we need to do more or Different Things . And might some of the things we did have gone too far . The third question, to what degree are potential risks migrating outside the regulated sectors . Those are the three questions we need to ask. At the fed, our division of Financial Stability is constantly monitoring the third that in the banks, supervision and regulations areas, increasing attention to the first two questions. Take the first one, where might you need to go further than you have gone so far . Dan good question. I amnk, at this juncture, confident that what we will be doing as part of our view of the stress test system that we have the poststress requirements for the amount of capital that banks need to have, even after absorbing the losses hypothesized in the stress scenario. Specifically, we talk a little bit about this on your program last november, i am quite confident this is the direction we are moving, specifically we will be requiring that, even after we take the stress losses into account, for the eight largest u. S. Institutions, they will need to have the straightforward minimum capital levels that all banks have to have, but also would have to be above the minimum capital plus, the capital surcharge we place on those eight institutions. There will be some offsets in other parts of the stress test. So that it will not be just a straight addition of the surcharge. , effectively, this will be a significant increase in capital. Why . For the same reason we put the surcharge is in place originally. We need to have these eight most systemically important institutions more resilient than other banks in the economy. You can have a smaller bank fail and the economy can absorb that. With the largest institutions, obviously, much more of a systemic risk. We need to achieve that and a post stress environment and a prestress environment. Scenarios are our in stress testing, we cannot anticipate all things that might happen. There is the unknown unknown. For that reason, we need to be humble about how we have predicted and make sure there is capital to absorb unanticipated types of losses. For a moment, you have a surcharge above what is required internationally in regular circumstances, you are talking about a surcharge under stress situations, would you anticipate it will be the same amount of surcharge or something less than what you require in normal circumstances . Dan i would anticipate the surcharge addition will be the same amount that is required on a ongoing basis. But, what people should not jump from the conclusion to the proposition that you should just take last years stress test and add the surcharge as a required amount of capital because we will be making some other adjustments in the stress test. There are some things put into the stress test over time that are quite conservative assumptions that were meant to of theto account some same factors, the fact we need more resiliency in the biggest institutions. Now we are doing that anymore explicit way, assuming we do go forward anymore explicit way, some of those things that we put in place before might be adjusted as well. Although there will be a significant increase, it will not be dollar for dollar. Ahead, as you expect to, what would be the timing on when this would take effect, in effect in time for the next round of stress tests . Not,i would suspect although we have not made a decision on that. I think it will probably be important for us to get a proposal out in enough time for institutions to begin planning for being increased surcharge. For example, as originally, with the stress test, we were facing phasing something zen and here they might be phased in but that has not been decided. Talking about the eight largest banks, we had the president from minneapolis on a while ago and he had some proposals or request about the too big to fail problem, i want to play a little bit of the sample you because we talked a bit about you. Frank was passed very quickly, they wanted to reform the system which i supported. More transformational measures were taken off the table like breaking up the banks or putting so much capital in the big banks that you turn them into utilities so they cannot fail. Another of other options. Here we are six or seven years later, and we have done some good come of the banks are safer, they have more capital and more liquidity but we are not taken the risk of a bailout of the table. Have you talked to them . I am looking for