Earnings. Joining us is Christine Harper from bloomberg. We are joined also by allison williams. Christine barclays and some of the banks around the world are up. Postbrexitthe trading and money market reform is coming into play today. That drove up client act timmy. Rates in particular. The fixed income trading is not really anything. Nobody was expecting that. Allison estimates started to come out and people felt better. We knew it was strong because of exit. August was a typical seasonal slowdown. Saw, inm things we general when things are accelerating, thats only 10 to get some of these beats. Christine its interesting. Thatd the First Quarter was terrible for a lot of banks. The Third Quarter which was summer was really good. Its up 48 year on year. On the money market reforms, how much of that is a oneoff due to that figure we wont see again in the next quarter . There is always a number of things that we are not going to see in the next quarter that we will hear analysts asking on Conference Calls how things are going. We are only a couple of weeks into the quarter. For the rate business, its going to be the fed. Will togoing to be help volatility to the extent that there is uncertainty around the fed position. Banks of been talking for a long time about the convergence in Monetary Policy with the downward bias and how that is affecting volatility and volume. We have seen some pickup and some of the activity we saw the tomer and these are related rising uncertainty. But we continue to get thats uncertainty . As we are heading into both december and next year. That banksere a risk shortterm funding will increase in the shortterm longer term they will make more money . That is the big risk. Why jamie dimon said he wanted the fed the start raising rates. They are trying to find other ways to make money. Jpmorgan has done a good job of that this quarter. That is there existential question. David the trading success they are having is not a oneoff. These are two quarters in a row that they have done well at this. His is telling us something fundamental . , we werentforms making much money off trading. Its not the same return. When we look at these trading numbers, we are not looking at traffic. A lot of what has changed in the trading business is how much capital they have to set aside against. The work done a lot of on investing and creating more efficiencies. We have written about how things are getting more computerized the banks. Jobs are down. The personnel numbers are mostly flat to up. Cut not a big sign of the next to j. P. Morgan. Trade revenue is the highest in 3. 5 years. Jonathan were on the blogger. Its fantastic embers coming out. One of the numbers that comes out in this is the retail side of the banks. They are taking more deposits and making more loans. Talk to me about the retail side of the business of wells fargo in the spotlight. Can they step in . The credit card business is something banks have been investing in. Its been a focus. Citigroup is going to be an Interesting Data point today. That is the start of one of two businesses they have been investing in. Ist we see with the consumer generally fundamentally healthy. Consumer growth is starting to accelerate and cn i growth is starting to soften in the quarter. Pushing goodmorgan loan growth in the quarter. They have that sapphire products. We have written a lot about the popularity of the product and they give credit to the success of that. It rose a little bit in the credit card space. That is something people are going to be focusing on. We had such an extended time of credit. Oft is one of the focus bank. David david thanks so much. She is executive editor for the finance. They will be back in the next hour. Lets get an update in whats getting headlines. Anna is here with first word news. Emma donald trump is pushing back against allegations of sexual assault. Or met he doesnt know some of the women accusing him of misconduct. He denied the claims made by multiple women made in a rally in florida. He is back on the campaign trail today with rallies in North Carolina. Delivered ana emotional rebuke to trump over his boasts in a 2005 video tape about groping women. She campaigned in New Hampshire for Hillary Clinton. What she offered was anything but a standard stump speech. This as every day locker room talk is in insult to the city men everywhere. Decent men everywhere. The men that we know dont treat women this way. They are loving fathers who are sickened by the thought of their daughters been exposed to this type of language about women. Emma the first lady said his words have shaken me to my core. Beginning its year of mourning for the world longest reigning monarch. He died yesterday at the age 88. His only son will send it to the throne. His been ill for many years. He made limited public appearances. He spent most of his time in the hospital. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. Alix thank you so much. Futures are pointing to a higher open. Lets dig into some of the openers. China may merge cam china with dino tim. Jeopardy their purchase by cam chen. Cam china. You have a lot of things going in this area. . Hat will happen is syngenta look at yahoo . It was down 2 and is now inching higher. Verizon may reopen some deal terms after the latest discovery on that data breach. Over in london, take a look at man group. Listed hedgeargest fund. It has an asset under management that grew 1. 3 billion. That stock is getting a boost today. David its your favorite. Oil. Its been in the news this week. We have an opec deal that could extend it to russia and iran. We will talk to the man who wrote the book. This is bloomberg. Jonathan this is bloomberg daybreak. Lets get a check of the markets for you. Jpmorgan is up almost two full percentage points. They smashed it out of the park on fixed income trading revenue. One liftedyou this all boats. Futures are positive across the board. Futures are up 88. This one listed berkeley stock as well. The ftse is higher by almost 9 10 of 1 . There is a speech from janet yellen. Yields are up higher. Is retaining handle. Rude fors a huge crude. Rise for crude. We have the opec secretarygeneral who weighed in on the potential agreement. Was a decision the iran. Even the russian production at the plateau in february. You wouldnt know until you got into april or may whether or not anyone is going to it here to these agreements. They are probably going to resemble some sort of curtail. They may freeze production. Greaty have made progress. This could end up in an agreement around christmas. The high level of production is likely. Not a step in the right direction. It is a step to nowhere. Alix joining us is daniel juergen. Soundingopec confident. Everyone we talked to had a different reaction. Thing that is striking is this is the first time in two years opec has stepped forward. The second thing to note is its already work. The price would be 10 a barrel lower than it is. They have had some success. Over theing to see next six or seven weeks a lot of up and down as they try to put them thing together. It may not be the mega agreement. Its probably more likely going to be a freeze that i cut. Alix you have a lot of opec countries pumping at record highs. What is this going to do . As the Saudi Petroleum minister said, a gentle hand on the wheel aimed at the market rebalancing. Its noteworthy that you have two of the really big players on the same side of the table, saudi arabia and russia. Vladimir putman in has put his prestige on the table. Alix maybe he has said we would be with the freeze. In reality, if you had russia pumping 11 billion barrels, who cares . One guy is in charge and russia. He will have the final word on what happens. Its going to be a freeze. Arabia have added 3 Million Barrels a day. They have leveled off. It is a question. There are going to be doubts about it and people will say its not working. Think on balance at the end of the day, they will come up with something that kind of restores confidence. There will be the argument that production is this and not this. They will argue about that over the next six weeks, what is our real production . Jonathan we are talking about state versus private. You incentivize me to act. Shale will come back into the market. Daniel i think its not going to be what we saw. I think they have acclimated themselves the this will bring it shale back into the market. We have seen in u. S. Shell 60ucers were they needed during now they can operate in the 40 range. The decline is starting to turn up again. David saudi arabia has some real physical needs to satisfy. They have a bond flotation coming up. What do they need out of this process at the end of the day . What do they need . Daniel i think they would like to see stability and they want to see the price above 50 a barrel. They hinted above that. Look what theyve done. This is already up 10 a barrel. That makes a difference. They feel a lot of pressure that they werent in the past. David its not going to stay up there unless they do something. That is a very key thing. He is the former head. He has a lot of understanding of what needs to be done. Alix i love that you believe what they have been pumping out. By how much more they are estimating their product to be. Take a look at that huge to bar jump. 500,000those, thats barrels of oil a day. If they freeze at that level, thats a very different level. Theyl in previous times argued reserves. Now its how much you are producing. I think we are among the secondary sources and were white skeptical of the venezuelan numbers. The iraqi numbers are probably overstated. Alix when you take a look at the bargaining chips, is there a potential for the shell dealers to get in and hedge . They dont care if oil as at 40. They just had debt 51. Daniel if they get a price they can hedge, they will go ahead. I think around this price. The other thing that has happened, if you see the short of going on strike in the market, they are not there. They are not doing anything until the end of november. We have seen a real change in the Financial Markets on this. Alix it is basically a floor. That is the positioning over the next six or seven weeks. David that is something to look forward to. This is a cartel after all. They have to enforce their agreements. Daniel its a messy oligopoly. I dont think they have any enforcement. I think there is the feeling that what you are saying they will be cheating in arguing about it and there is not a lot of trust here. I think one thing that you do ,ave an you had them on the air opec hasnt had a secretarygeneral for years. This is an energetic guy out there campaigning. Alix what does an opec failure look like . You have a big fall in the price. Alix what would it be at this point . Daniel not coming up with anything. You have a big fall in thei think the pressure on them, the financial pressure is so great that they will come up with something to try and hold this floor above 50 a barrel. Alix is there a risk that opec comes in and freezes their production and prices rise. We are looking at another cut, meaning that what opec does no longer has the price swing . Daniel it is true. Cartel, thereyour are the big three. The United States isnt part of this game. There is not going to be a final solution here. This is going to be an ongoing process. They are buying time. Like its going to be more balanced. Backownside, we could be into the 40s again. Then they will have to start again to do it. The financial pressures of mounted on all of them. Alix thats pretty grandma. Daniel it depends on which angle you were looking at. I think were going to see this volatile range. Graham would have been 40 a barrel. Jonathan its great to have you with us. The hershey ceo is set to retire. The Company Reaffirms its the big story at the moment for the markets jp morgan earnings. Trading revenue is up 48 on the fixed income side of the business. The stock is up as well in the we will run you through the numbers as we count you down to the media that begins at 8 00. Its a jpmorgan story. Alix jpmorgan out with earnings. They made a 6. 3 billion profit. Lets take a look at the bank in the numbers dont lie. This is the big picture for you. Estimates combine income at the six largest lenders. It could fall 16 . One potentially big reason is persistently low Interest Rates that are crimping lending margins. Jpmorgan, botho are falling with rates heading south in the past two years. There is a slight up ticket last few weeks. Betweenill a disconnect the equity price over the next few months. This is the correlation between the two year yield, which is the most sensitive and jpmorgan. It turns out rates might not have had that big of an impact as for earnings and revenue, this marks the first time in six quarters , both rise year on year. You have net revenue up by 6 . One of the Drivers Behind this is fixed income trading. Of 48 sent. Ain that is a huge rise in trading. Line is also rising as well. The story on banks during this growth, it still continues to be cost cuts. Youre looking at annual growth for users for jpmorgan. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, you have Banking Services reducing the number of branches. You see huge mobile growth there. Was jpmorgan surpassing wells fargo as the worlds most valuable bank. Nonetheless, it was a boon for jpmorgan. We already had outperformance in high data sectors in europe. The bank session highs, this is strong across the board for banks worldwide. Up next, the fed. When youre on hold, your business is on hold. Thats why comcast business doesnt leave you there. When you call, a Small Business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. No annoying hold music. Just a real person, real fast. Whenever you need them. Great, thats what i said. So your business can get back to business. Sounds like my rides ready. Dont get stuck on hold. Reach an expert fast. Comcast business. Built for business. This is bloomberg daybreak. It is 12 30 p. M. In london. Jpmorgan shares rose. The bank posted a profit. Youve got on revenue rising and we will hear from wells fargo and citibank. In an hour, we will get the september read on retail sales. The forecast is 6 10 of 1 . The keynote is speaker at the economic conference hosted by the federal sir bank of boston. Thats what you need to know at this hour. Thethan futures are up on dow positive. There is outperformance from jpmorgan. That is taking bank stocks higher. Upkeley stocks, the ftse is 9 10 of 1 . Is 104. Ar yen it is a weaker. Yields are grinding higher by three basis points. Bring in the politics with the fed. We are 25 days away from the election. The result could weigh heavily on the fed. Leaders have been speaking up ahead of the meeting. Patrick harger address the issue of politics and the Federal Reserve. I am worried about the dependent on the outcome of the election. There are policies that would have affects we would have to respond to. Careful lineg a here. In more, we will bring Michael Mckee join us from boston. Its great to have you with us. Lets begin with you. Regional fed president s are looser with their tongues. This speaks to the market story. Is he right to acknowledge that . Normally the fed doesnt talk about politics at all. Belief, theyopular have raised then cut rates shortly before elections. A week before an election, theyve never done anything. The thing to keep in mind is the november meeting does not have a press conference. There is a natural bias against it. We have never had an election like this where the possibility of a Market Reaction is so severe the fed would say we might want to wait. Were not sure whats going to happen. I think november is off the table. The december hike is in the cards. I think there is a 100 probability of a hike in december. The only chance they dont hike in december is if something significant the rails them. The markets are pricing in 70 in december. There flip that around, is a 30 chance of something bad happening between now and december 14. David what might happen . The political situation. Its teams at this point the election is not going to upset the apple cart. Whats happening in europe is probably more significant with brexit negotiations. China, all eyes are on the reserves and the growth. That seems to be moving markets. Today they have good inflation. Yesterday they had bad exports. He Economic Data, the markets i think things seem stable enough that the fed should have a green light to go in december. Alix you have a fed decision in december and then the election and a really thinks its a december rate hike. The matter who wins, youre not going to see the affective any policy. There will still be uncertainty. Can you make the case that december should also be in off the table . Michael if you have a new president to is rational and doesnt cause a market collapse and you look at what the policy is going to be, it would be months before anything could have an effect on the economy. The fed doesnt want to wait that long. They are looking at the data now. You need to be prepared for inflation rising. We will likely see that. A 25 basis point range is not going to really change things. They can take it back if they have to. If anything happens positive, its going to be to stimulate the economy. The fed is going to have to raise rates again. Jonathan we sat down with a lot of fed president s are in typically, they come in with an objective. Yellens objective . Michael i havent read her speech it. I think what she is going to do is keep everybody on course, keep the possibility of the active contractor the futures market. They did not get anybody off course grade she is what you promise at this point that the atket wants look backwards the recovery and whites been so slow, the markets want to look forward. They will be disappointed if they want a promise. If they want to walk away from this saying they are still on track in december is likely move, thats what they will get rid alix we looked at this yesterday. Congress has given the fed the mandate of maximum employment. Confidence, we are achieving maximum employment if we dont understand whats happening beneath the surface. We look at the headline on unemployment. 5 sounds pretty good. There are lot of americans who left the labor force. A lot of americans are still outside the labor force. If you just look at 5 unemployment, we know we are missing a lot of important details