And the other cracked down on Sexual Assault in the military. Julie hyman is digging into the discounts that have run far and wide, but not all retailers are playing ball. Olivia sterns is following the headache for many of these stores, with the return season beginning. Julie hyman, who resisted the pressure to cut prices . Consumers are coming to expect that. Case we havee base seen across the retail spectrum. Some retailers at the highend who think they can preserve brand equity keep prices at relatively elevated levels. Lemonked about lulu held prices. Is a teenage retailer that introduces a number of products to see what will be successful. Finally, anthropology, which is owned by Urban Outfitters, an upscale brand, where people are not so much buying gifts, but buying stuff for themselves. Now, the advantage of this strategy is obvious you preserve operating margin. One retailer that has discounted less, not resisted entirely, hasnt michael kors with margins of 30 . Margins are also elevated. The buckle, Urban Outfitters and express as well. Margins is the benefit. What about the risk . People do not shop at your stores because they can get discounts at the store next door. That could present a risk to l othermon, where competitors have come in. Uncle courses holding steady. Michael kors is holding steady. Down slightly. We will see how this strategy bears out because they are in the minority. They are indeed in the minority because people are walking away with huge discounted items. Where do we go from here . Stocks have been rallying, which is unusual because all we have been hearing is negative. Is at newtail index highs on anticipation that things will turn around in the new year, the economy is getting better, and the fed is finally yet if you look at the patterns, there is no guarantee. Toconsumers are getting used permanent lower prices, that could be more problematic for retailers on a longerterm basis. We will know more as the numbers roll in. We will see the numbers crunched. Julie hyman, thank you. Maybe you did the thing people do during the season, get the gift, return it, and then go buy something else. The return season is kicking off. In particular the online return season and a couple of things are driving that. More generous shipping policies. Returns,ping, free that used to be rare, and when there is no financial penalty, you are more likely to hit check out. Also, there are deep discounts that consumers are expecting. 50 is the entry level discount, which is more likely to have you make a splurge or a rash decision. It really hits the fashion apparel, retailers, Shoe Companies the worst with 30 of goods being returned. Home goods, toys, it is only about 10 . It will be worse for that ppos. Com. Za women are more likely to return goods than men. Edex expects to see a 20 increase 28 increase with their smartpost shipping policy. X becauseood for fede they will charge you either way. Look at what is happening with amazon they will eat the charge for the gifts that did not arrive for christmas. Is rolling out new products like mobile barcodes which will make it easier for returns. Thank you olivia sterns. 1. 3urn to washington million americans will see Unemployment Benefits and go away tomorrow and the debate over extending those benefits will be the first legislative battle of 2014. Peter cook has the latest. What are the prospects for a deal . They are not bad. Benefits like this give you an weeks of benefits. It has been extended before. There is a bipartisan effort to extend them, and even House Speaker john weiner says he is open to extending them john toner says he is open extending them. Democrats say it is still an emergency with unemployment at 7 and there is no need to find an offset. Steny hoyer was back on the floor here in washington yesterday saying this is the wrong time to leave 1. 3 million americans in the cold. Speaker,umber, mr. Will increase by 73,000 people on average every week that we continue to block extensions. That is both a moral outrage and another congressionally inflicted blow to our economy and it is unprecedented whenever unemployment levels have been as they are today. Republicans say the emergency over, and it is time to scale back the program to the traditional 26 weeks or something closer to that. At a minimum, they are insisting that it has to be paid for. Low hanging fruit was used in a budget deal, so they need to find a way to come up with the money. What if there is no deal what will be the impact the economy . The 1. 3 Million People who have benefits ending saturday, that is money not going into the economy. Some have said that hit to the conomy could be as much as 0. 4 to 2014 gdp. In implement rate could come down by 25 the unemployment. 5 could go down by because people might be taking lower paying jobs after holding out for something better. And people could stop looking altogether. That will bring the number down and that will impact the fed. The irony is the jobless rate could fall. And the situation is worse. Exactly. Who makes the next move . The senate is planning to hold the first vote on january 6 when they return. For. Now, it is not paid that is the big issue. Peter cook, thank you. It is the time of the year, wall street analysts are making their forecast for the markets in the year ahead, and we put them on television to talk about it. Michael mckee has the real deal. Accommodating . More comedy . It is the time of year that we love predictions. When you look at what was predicted last year, you have to laugh. But the stock pickers forecast of the s p 500, and where it is today. We have a few days left, but look how far off they are. The median forecast within this miss ofrecast was a 17. 5 . Not to be totally unfair to stock pickers, what about stock analysts . For three quarters ahead. This is what they thought earnings per share would average for the s p 500, and here is what they turned out to be. Analysts were no better. You probably do not necessarily want to take their advice. It is amazing when you match up the estimates and the outcome. What about economists, the people you fraternize with . We looked at them as well. To be fair, they are just as. Umb in projecting the future here is what they thought growth was and here is what growth actually was. Pickinge no better at the future then stock prognosticators. It makes you wonder why anybody listens to anyone. People have studied this. The more you are counted as an export expert, the more likely you are to be wrong because you get locked into a forecast and you believe your own methods of analyzing things. The other is nobody could tell what could happen. Our summary things that could happen in 12 months. One otherve a good thing is that anything could happen in 12 months. Mckee, thank you. A fair and balanced report. Economics editor michael mckee. Do you want somebody to blame for the sponsored advertisements popping up and flooding your twitter feed . We have them. Joins us. Izea and, elon musk reaches for the sky. We take you inside the capabilities of the grasshopper rocket. Be feeling it with her fans, but she has retailers feeling like they got the shaft this holiday. Stay in the loop. We are just Getting Started this friday. In the loop with betty liu will be right back. First. Bloomberg. If you want someone to blame for all of the sponsored advertisements in social media, the next guest is the man, ted murphy, who is largely credited for pioneering sponsorship and paid bargaining. And founderairman of izea. Great to have you back on the program. You have bold predictions. Number one is about bitcoin. We wrapped up the series on 12 days of it going. You think next year new york city will have its first bitcoin atm. Absolutely. Bitcoin is huge and there are opportunities for entrepreneurs to get into the space. You will see the first bitcoin atm in new york city. The first one in vancouver did one Million Dollars in transactions in the first month. Bitcoinse accumulating , but there is no easy way to get the money back out. So many Financial Transactions happening, it is a great opportunity for an entrepreneur. This is also because you mine bitcoin. I do. I have a rig at home. I am basically cracking code all day long. I am accumulating bitcoins and i think they will continue to appreciate in value. There is a huge opportunity. Have you made money on bitcoin so far . I have, i have. How much . Can you say . I do not like to talk about. He exact number it is still relatively small, but this is about the longer term view. You have a currency that is finite. You have more and more retailers that are accepting bitcoin. , whiche overstock. Com just made their big announcement about being able to accept bitcoin next year. I think youll see more people getting on board, looking to take advantage of opportunities with bitcoin. You have other predictions that i want to get through. This is interesting Cable Operators and Companies Like awill go to have a card la carte programming. This one i thought was interesting the last two predictions. But clicks, you expect them to reach an alltime and there has been so much content that this is already happening. Too much display advertising and major publishers are having a difficult time monetizing it does the market is flooded. There is too much of it. Sociale going to sponsorships, what is being called native advertising. The New York Times said they would do sponsored posts on the website. Sponsoredshift to content in many ways, we are seeing it. Oh. Advertising on television started with soap operas. We are seeing it go. Go. Advertising started with soap operas. Increasedave competition with sponsorship overtime, but what is unique about sponsorship is it is specifically matched with who the brand is, what the product is, who the client is, and everything is unique. In some ways, you have insulation in the sponsorship space. Bador me, it is a less space. People do not like the advertisements, but i would not say thats monster ships are so well integrated that people do not find them annoying so wellhips are integrated that people do not find them annoying. It is all about how it is done and how it is executed. Sponsorship just like you see Bad Television commercials. It is up to the publishers were orlebrity in some case the celebrity in some cases to make sure they are aligning themselves with something they can get behind and tell a story about because nobody likes bad advertising. Based on that, one of your predictions is twitter will hit 80 a share. That is not far off. That might be the first quarter. [laughter] i made a prediction on the 11th, and i said it would hit 60 a share, and here we are today in the low70s. I think you will see resistance at the 80dollarmark, but. Eople are excited it is a remarkable platform with a high level of engagement in my opinion they are just started to scratch the surface of what they will do from a Revenue Generation standpoint. , ted murphy, ceo of izea thank you. Coming up, is tmobile for sale we have the latest on reports that sprint wants to buy the wireless carrier. First. Bloomberg. You are watching in the loop , live on Bloomberg Television and streaming on your phone, tablet, and on bloomberg. Com. Good morning. I am betty liu. Bloomberg television is on the market. Equity futures are just a little bit higher. No Economic Data today. Yesterdays jobless claims were better than expected. It is the only fuel you have to propel the gains higher. We are on the markets again in 30 minutes. Here are the top headlines. Audi is taking on bmw to become the number one luxury carmaker. They plan to invest 30 billion over the next four years. They want to sell 2 million cars and Sport Utility vehicles annually. Phil falcone took no pay from his company for three years, and time,making up for lost eligible for a bonus for 20 million. He also gets a base salary and an individual bonus of as much as 750,000. Travelers got a Christmas Gift from delta airlines. They said they will honor tickets sold online for incorrect prices. Ticket to hawaii sold for 6. 90. Bader not know how many tickets were sold or what the financial they do not know how many tickets were sold or what the Financial Impact will be. Toth dakota is a place of 2 s with home which being the home of two of the poorest counties in america, and there is also a place where many billionaires are putting the money. Do not even have to put their money there. All they have to do is say their trust is a south dakota trust and they get the benefits of south dakota law, which helped him avoid state income taxes in their home state if they live in a state like new york, and also federal state and gift taxes. They only have to register the trust there has to be a physical address in south dakota . Radcom and for some of these companies it means rent right, and for some of the companies it is just buying a small Little Office or renting a small Little Office that no one ever goes to. Who are some of these companies . They include the pritzker family. If this is such an easy thing to do, why are more not doing it . Or is it becoming a big thing . The amount of money in south Dakota Trust Companies has 120 1 billion, so a lot of people are doing this. Is it a recent change of law . Federal law changed that made the south dakota loophole more effective and that is part of the reason for the runup. How did you find out about this, zach mider . Somebody mentioned to me, and i looked into it and found out that it was right. When you went to visit sioux falls, where local residents aware of this, is it a source of controversy . From the state perspective, it is only positive. Moneyet a little bit of and a few jobs, and they figure it is better than no jobs, so they might as well do it. The people that pay the price are ultimately other states and the federal government. losing out on the revenue. Right, losing out on the revenue. Describe what they are like. There is an old five and dime store that has been converted, and on the first floor there are offices that represents these wealthy families. For the most part, these offices time, but most of the there are names on the door and a directory. If you call, somebody answers the phone somewhere else. And in the address allows them to claim residency for the trust. You might have given a few other people some ideas. Thank you, zach mider. Staying with real estate, in manhattan, the managers of the Empire State Building are being sued claiming that it took investigators for a 400 million ride. Move would drive up the value of 17 other buildings. The realty trust went public on october 1, selling 71. 5 million shares for 13 each. Verizon and at t might welcome the sale of t mobile to sprint. Regulators might not be as eager to approve the sale. Big leap. Musks find out what he did to change the industry. The new keanu reeves samurai office record,x but not the kind the industry wants. You are watching in the loop , live on Bloomberg Television and streaming on your phone, tablet, and on bloomberg. Com. Are suggestings is eyeing tmobile, but is the company for sale, and will regulators allow this to go through . We are joined by jennifer fritchey. Speculation. Uch do you think a deal is being put together for tmobile . I think this is something they wanted for a long time and part of the plan is for these two, number three and number four to come together. Where there is smoke, there is fire. Will this get past regulators . It is an uphill battle for sure. I do not think it will be as hard as the at t battle was. Here, i think verizon and at t would stop outoftheway and welcome consolidation . Consolidation. Why . Tmobile has been disruptive with their reemergence. They are the most aggressive price are. The consolidation and the moving of the most disruptive price there is a good thing for the industry. Some would say it smacks of desperation. Aggressive ineen pricing at the expense of margin. Absolutely. Not have continued to add subscriber gains, but you are right, it has not materialized in their cash flow and margins have continued to really lag at t and verizon. Deutsche telekom, which still has a significant stake in t mobile, do you get the sense they want to unload tmobile . Yes. That has been part of their plan. They have invested in the network, but it has been an arms length relationship. They diluted themselves to the most recent offering which was to buy more spectrum. The next move is the question. I think germany would prefer to distance themselves from the u. S. At this point. What you think the founder and ceo of softbank wants to do . Know, i do not think he came here to lose money. What is behind the black curtain with sprint is yet to be seen. I think it will be a disruptive service. They will not be disruptive on price, per se, but on this deed. Speed. R, we were on remember, we were both on clearwire, which is under the sprint umbrella, and that is a secret weapon because it will allow them to offer much more competitive fees than Wireline Networks are providing. Over and overmer, again, as proven they will move to a structurally better product, even at a higher price point. They will pay the price to get a higher speed because we consume so much better. That is right. It is not a nearterm fix. I do not think the Fourth Quarter will show much. And it is14 that in 2014 and 2015 that will drive this higher. Final note, jennifer deal,che, if there were a what would they have to give up . Where at t and verizon will fight them is with spectrum. With clearwire, sprint, legacy spectrum, what tmobile brings to the table, they will have more spectrum than at t and verizon will, and that offers a loophole. If this has a chance of approval, they will have to did best some of that spectrum, probably from important markets. Thank you, Jennifer Fritzsche , wells fargo securities. New album might be number one in 104 countries, but some upset for retailers. The hit comedy trading places came out in 1983, but it is still getting big laughs. Find out dan aykroyds thoughts 30 years after the release on the only trading commodities, he. Ofleonardo Dicaprio