Transcripts For BLOOMBERG In The Loop With Betty Liu 2014123

BLOOMBERG In The Loop With Betty Liu December 30, 2014

Princeton professor alan krueger will be joining us. He has argued all year long the u. S. Has to address income inequality. Will that change in 2015 . Here they look at top stories is morning. A breakthrough in the search for the missing air asia passenger jet. Debris has reportedly been found. Indonesias navy has spotted debris that says may be an emergency exit door. At least six bodies have been found. The air asia plane disappeared while flying from central indonesia to singapore. Stocks are falling around the world this morning. Futures indicate u. S. Stocks will be lower at the open. Energy stocks are leaving the decline. The price of oil fell again to a fiveyear low. Tom petri of petri partners has devised u. S. And saudi arabia on oil. Heres his advice for president obama. The white house will view this as a plus for the u. S. Economy and therefore they will let those sources run as well. The row question would be will they approve the keystone pipeline, will they move forward on some kind of liberalizing of oil exports . If they do, then a there will be even greater benefits in terms of the functioning of the market. Meanwhile, u. S. Oil stockpiles are the highest for this time of year in more than three decades. Our u. S. Banks trying to hack the hackers are u. S. Banks trying to hack the hackers . According to people familiar with the investigation jpmorgan advocated such a move almost two years ago, a spokesman for the bank says, no action was ever taken. It is the hamburger chain started as a public service. Now it may be worth 1 billion. Shake shack has filed for an ipo and is aiming for a 1 billion valuation. The chain was started more than a decade ago to help in the restoration of new york citys Madison Square park. It has more than 60 outlets from new york, london, to dubai. And memory problems ups had last christmas . Things were better this year. They deliver 98 of express packages ontime christmas eve. Last year, fedexs rate was 90 and ups at 83 . The companies spent of millions of dollars to improve. Indonesian rescuers found debris and bodies floating in the ocean. Were joined from hong kong with the latest on this discovery. Sherry, what did they manage to find in full from the ocean so far . Betty, rescuers are trying to find and pull as many bodies as possible. Local media, they are saying around 40 bodies have been recovered as dusk fell from the sea off the coast of borneo. Indonesian Officials Say they have discovered objects that appear to be part of the plane. Local media report seeing an evacuation slide, a box, a life jacket, and other objects, but so far the black box has not been found. The crash site is about 1000 kilometers southeast of singapore and 10 kilometers from the planes last known coordinates. Flight 8501 was headed there from indonesia with 100 62 people on board. Water around the crash site is shallow at 25 meters to 30 meters deep and authorities are working with diverse to try to find the data recorders, but officials there say the rough sea is hampering the Recovery Process. The indonesian president is holding a press conference right now as to the confirmation of bodies that have been told and debris that have been found in the ocean, as you just mentioned, so right now as you speak he is talking about this discovery, this grim discovery. I imagine that one of the main questions to him will be what caused this flight to go down . Do we have any more close on the . Any more clues on that . At this point, we do not have any more information as to the probable cause of the crash, but weather could have been a crasher. The plane disappeared off radar after the pilot request a higher altitude because of stormy clouds. This is pretty normal procedure. April former pilot for British Airways telling us that the weather itself should not have cause what apparently is a catastrophic accident, so we are finding the voice and data recorders will be keen to discovering why the airbus a320 1, found from the front of the plane, as well as key data points that will help recreate the last moment of the flight. Shery, we are looking at the live feed of djokovicjoko widodo. He is less than a year into his presidency. Do we know how good of a job he has done in handling this so far . Well, right now, they are trying to put everything in perspective to try to get all of the bodies that they have found out of the water first. Right now, indonesia is leading the operations, and you mentioned that joko widodo the president , is heading where they will get the bodies that they retrieved from the water in order to identify them but they are getting a lot of help from other countries around malaysia, australia, south korea jumping in, conjuring ships, planes, authorities helped widen the search area across the java sea as chinese and also u. S. Military ships headed to the region, and now officials there in surabaya will give an update on the Recovery Process tomorrow morning. All right, shery thank you so much for joining us for joining us. Id way, the indonesia president , widodo, says they will put all of their assets in recovering the debris. Shery, thank you so much, shery ahn. Lets take a look at what is on our minds this morning. Betty, you kick things off. Ok, we were speaking about housing earlier. Caseshiller will be coming out at 9 00 a. M. So i thought i would focus on the Housing Market. Housing has not been a beacon of growth here in the economy in the last several months. In the last month as you remember we had home sales down a surprising 6. 1 new home sales off 1. 6 , we are about to get the s p case schiller numbers. Remember that back in september these are numbers from several months back, in september, the growth rate for the top 20 metropolitan areas was just up by four point , the first time below 5 since 2012. It has got people wondering maybe in 2015 housing will be the odd man out in terms of recovery. Are we just looking at a wave that is going to go back up, or habits as far as housing goes has it changed permanent the . That is what i would like to talk to Robert Shiller about. Millenials who are renting versus buying. You hear quite a bit about that. If there is a problem. It is not exactly that the housing recovery is running out of steam every recovery has to run out of gas or fuel whatever. If it does we will see when the case schiller index comes out, but right now 60 below its peak. Construction was 8 of the economy, then went down to 4 , does it ever get back to 8 , or do something take its place . I am looking at afghanistan. The nato mission in afghanistan inended. We are to handling it or looking at it as a security challenge. The world bank came out with numbers looking at afghanistan as an economy, independent of the very grave and serious security challenges they have. There has actually been some social progress in the last 10 years. I think of it as a wash, but look at this School Enrollment in 2001 was one million, now 9. 2 million in 2013. Increased access to water. If you look at gdp growth, 9. 4 . A lot of countries would be desperate for that. That is an isolated areas around the capital, we are not talking about the entire country because there is not control the entire country. Gdp per capita was 186, now 188, so the real problem that they still have is that aid is still about half of the gdp of the country, so can they wean themselves off of aid . I think there is some small room to feel hope that there has been some economic and social growth in the last 10 years. As you say, much of that or half of that at least that Economic Growth comes from eight. What about the other half . Where is that coming from . Businessweek had a great story, some entrepreneurial growth in kabul. There is a real consumerbased economy there. I will switch my attention from afghanistan to what is happening in oil. Oil was that a big story in 2014 . [laughter] a company in the Oilfield Services business specifically provides temporary housing to Energy Projects and coal projects in canada, the United States i like the way you put it before these are man camps. That is what they are referred to generically in the industry, so you would expect as other end thats as other Oil Companies have suffered, that civeo would suffer as well for step two years ago, it did at 1 billion in business. It is now expecting 540 million to 600 million dollars. A drop of 40 over the space of two years. It does most of its business up in alberta where the oilsands are. Only 35 to 40 occupied now. The company is a spinning its dividend and slashing capex while most 75 . This gives you a sense of the kind of shock that is rippling through the Oilfield Services business as the oil price drops. To 53. In canada, canada produces at least in alberta heavy crude. This stuff requires a lot of refining. Needs added value in order to become a marketable product. 37 a barrel that is all they are getting for this stuff. We are about to find out something scary for stop you look at stateside north dakota and texas they have had a tremendous boom in last seven years to 10 years around growth and will stop we are about to find out, a lot of these projects already online are going to continue producing, but we are about to find out the difference in jobs between growth and production. Some of these states were at full employment, some of the cities, thus the need for the man camp. You just like saying man camp. Man camp i credit erik for that. Air asia disaster once again took the spotlight in Southeast Asia and also these lowbudget carriers. Stick around for two big names. We will talk about the economy would be former chairman of the Federal Reserve. Alan greenspan joins us. Also, bob schiller of caseshiller index joins us. Indonesian search crews are finally finding debris and bodies from the air asia flight that went missing three days ago. That makes this search different from that of the still disappeared Malaysian Air flight so why do air disasters keep happening in Southeast Asia . One potential answer a boom in regional air travel. Based in and serving indonesia and malaysia including a good number with safety regulations that do not meet western standards. With us is john rose, chief operating officer at ijet. John, good morning to you. There is lots we still do not know, but at this point, when we look at what happened to the Malaysian Airlines jet, when we look at what happened to this airasia jet, can we draw conclusions about the safety standards, the speed at which these airlines have grown and expanded their service, and the increasingly bad Safety Record that we are beginning to see . I think you can draw a little bit of conclusion. Some of it is just bad luck, but part of it is when you have a concentration of risk because there is a lot more flights in a lot new entrants into the market, bad things can happen. A lot of it has to do with the infrastructure the training, and the Safety Records of the overall regulations in the region. How difficult is that . We were talking about some of these numbers yesterday. Airasia has 160 nine jets roughly today. 60 years ago had 78 jets. How difficult is it for any airline, airasia or any other for that matter, to grow at that pace and maintain the necessary standards . Find the competent pilots, the mechanics, etc. Needed to keep the planes in the air and not in the sea . I think they can do it. They will not expand recklessly but it will be a stretch on the system, such as the air Traffic Control system, the monitoring of the weather, how they will change flight patterns. In the change of this particular flight there was a change in weather, but that should not have caused the crash. That will lead to speculation in what caused this was a pilot error mechanical error gekko all of these factors play into the situation that companies have to know what Airlines Travelers are flying on, and what are the risks because as you said not everywhere in the world meets western standards when it comes to civil aviations. Indonesian is not meet the faas standards for air Traffic Control, but other developing countries like india, also has an expanding middleclass, they have a start up by the airlines that are experiencing the same kind of boom in air travel. Does it have to be this way . Doe indonesias have a particularly bad record, or is this what happens in a developing economy . It is a combination of both. You look at anywhere in the world that is rapidly expanding in emerging markets, and you have interests entrants into the market. Some but he has to monitor those entry airlines, especially small, regional airliners. Some cut corners, i am not saying airasia did that, but somebody needs to be monitoring this. This is not readily available, Public Information that any Business Traveler can go out and read up on. You have to have somebody monitoring the Training Records the Safety Records, how they are addressing any potential security situation, safety situation, Pilot Training if a summary is no monitoring all of that, you are potentially putting your travelers at risk. I imagine, john, as you are saying, it would be great for passengers to have a kind of information, but that information is not readily available, even here in the u. S. That leads to the question, not just about the expansion and the maintenance of this aircraft, but really also about the Pilot Training. When i am reading about now about airasia is that many of these pilots had lots of complaints about their own aircraft, they were not addressed. I do not know if that is part of the problem here with airasia, but what about the training in some of these countries . That is a huge issue. If you look at a lot of these past events that were really negative, where there were crashes, what you have is often pilot error, such as the athens air flight in 2007, almost exact same routing is this flight, also had a weather situation, but the weather did not cause the cross, the pilot did. You have to look at the Pilot Training, the experience, and you have to have a company like ours that monitors every airline in the world and the Safety Records because as you said it is not readily available information to the general public. John, thank you very much, john rose, chief operating officer of ijet. Much more ahead, guys. How the author of that wellknown book on inequality got it wrong. We will talk with princeton economist alan krueger. You know what book i am talking about. We will be back. You are watching a special edition of in the loop live on Bloomberg Television streaming on mobile and bloomberg. Com. Good morning. I am betty liu here with Erik Schatzker and Brendan Greeley. Good morning. Erik helped me time i tie this morning. Thank you. I am learning. You had to learn how to tie ties . Brendan another vehicle recalls links to a fatal accidents, almost 60,000 older dodge and mitsubishi pickups are being recalled. The problem a faulty clutch that let a child start a truck and run over another one. That has been a record year for recalls. The biggest drugstore chain in the u. S. Will now own all of the biggest ones in the u. K. Shareholders of walgreens voted in favor of paying almost 60 billion to complete the purchase of alliance in 2012. Walgreens got almost half of that chain. And the rich getting richer. 92 billion added to their collective fortune. Alibaba cofounder jack mas fortune rose by him was 25 billion thanks to alibabas 6 gain to the ipo in september. It is twice xmas man is past the hour, which means lumbar television is on the markets and where have the markets been it is 26 minutes past the hour which means Bloomberg Televisions on the markets. Where of the markets been . The cooperative oil prices are down again, and that is dragging down the equity index. We are on the markets again in 30 minutes as we count down to the open. This year, america developed a crush on an economist, thomas ticky published a bestseller come a 700page bestseller, and name checked karl marx. We got to talk about it on tv. Erik schatzker spoke to the author earlier this year. There has been a large rise of inequality, so i think as a particular concern in this country i think im touching a nerve because there is a buffer, the financial crisis of 2008 incomes for a large group of the population, there he large rise in incomes, many people believe i think rightly, that this country is headed to financial fragility because of rising debt, so in this country, there is a big concern to a large extent for a good reason. Alan krueger joins us from miami, professor of economics at princeton, and you were writing about incoming inequality before income inequality was cool. [laughter] do you think thomas pi kettys book has been good or bad for the debate . It is hard to find a book that is attracted so much attention, and that by itself is good. It has provided a provocative theory. I think it misses the main reasons for the rise in inequality, and it misses the main reason why i think inequality will likely continue to grow, but none the less, i think it was positive for the country to have this debate. The main reason, alan being . If you look at what is happened to the bottom 99 , it is more significant than the top 1 pulling away from everyone else. There has been an enormous increase in inequality along educational lines, among other Lines Associated with the bottom 99 . If you look at College Graduates versus high school graduates, we have seen a huge shift in inequality. That has contributed in the grand scheme of things much more to the rise in inequality, and that is why we are seeing something of an inequality trap coming through union capital, not through fina

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