Transcripts For BLOOMBERG In The Loop With Betty Liu 2015013

BLOOMBERG In The Loop With Betty Liu January 30, 2015

Governments are ready to slap rusher with more economic sanctions, prohibiting the export of Energy Restoration technology, and russian response says the penalties are not working. The sanctions are not working in political terms. They might be having an effect on both sides in the economic area but not politically. Well economically, you just saw russia cut their Interest Rates. Talks are set to continue in belarus over the count conflict in ukraine. The treasury 10 year yields fell three basis points in london. In the u. S. , s p futures falling along with the dollar. This is ahead of the gdp numbers, will get the latest read on the strength of the u. S. Economy. A beat for amazon, and a miss for google. Jeff bezos showing he can pull out a profit following two straight periods of shocking losses in the Third Quarter. A very different story at google. The search giant missed as the advertising business faces more competition on mobile devices. Revenue climbed almost 7 to 14. 5 billion dollars. Analysts were looking for 14. 7 billion. Alibaba looking to advance on it Public Offering as soon as next year. The chinese companys affiliate is valued at 50 billion. I want to get more on the Market Reaction behind russias rate cut. Chief markets correspondent scarlet fu is at the breaking news desk with much more. The ruble slid on this news. It slid in value, but if you look at the chart, it actually moved up. This was a surprise to economy because the central Bank Economists because the central bank had raised rates six times in the past year. The government is signaling that they are willing to sacrifice some of the rubles value to stabilize the economy and pull it out of recession. Lets take you inside of the bloomberg terminal to show you the dollarruble strength rate. The dollar is moving up in value, the ruble is weakening. This is over the last six months. As the line goes higher, the dollar is increasing in value. This is todays move. This was back in middecember, when the government unexpectedly raised Interest Rates by a huge amount, and that pushed the ruble past 80. That was shortlived at the time because there was talk of government intervention. Perhaps the central bank came in to stabilize things. We saw the Exchange Rate find some kind of equilibrium in the weeks following. This move indicates the government is willing to once again let the global the value. In terms of the effect on equities, this was a move by the central bank to support the real economy. You are seen a bit of a reaction a positive reaction in russian stocks. Thank you, and while you were talking, more earnings coming out. Mastercard releasing their earnings. Fourthquarter earnings at . 69 per share. That looks like a slight beat against wall street estimates of 67 . . 67. Now to the big stock story of the day investors are hungry for shake shack. The highend burger chain pricing its ipo and 21 apiece above the proposed range of 17 to 19 a share. The stock is excited to begin trade today on the nyse. For more, i want to bring in an analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence who covers restaurants and food retail here at bloomberg. Jennifer, can we gauge how shake shack is going to do by other ipos in the food world. We can look at other ipos. Berger b had their ipo with a similarrgr offer size, pricing in the middle of their range. They are comparable. They operate in the same segment and they should be a good indicator to request a good benchmark. Exactly. We have had several ipos. Not just burgers, but food overall. Exactly. We also had dave and busters. Dave and busters, right. There has been great appetite for investors from that for restaurant ipos. For investors for restaurant ipos. Pardon the pun, people are lining up for shake shack. People know it they love it and they are willing to bank on it. It seems that way, but when you look at the sales we only have them over the last several years. I know they have actually seen sales growth slowing over the last couple of quarters. Why is that . Same store sales are declining, the part of that is because they wait two years for a comparable base. Because it is a growth story, a lot of recent development is not part of the numbers and you expect over time those numbers would shift up over time. Jennifer, thank you so much. Jennifer bartbashus. Tune in for my interview with the ceo and founders of shake shack. Amazon Beat Estimates google came up short. The stock is only up about 1 . I want to bring in paul sweeney of bloomberg intelligent intelligence, and my guest host susan lyne the former ceo of Martha Stewart on the media, and guilt group. Set the stage. The jeff bezos get his hand slapped and now he has learned his lesson to put earnings in a report . I do not expect that he has changed his strategy big investment for the longterm. It is not just his distribution centers. I think investments will continue. He will also make Big Investments on the media side of the business. I do not expect that to change. However, we got a very rare eps beat, and i think that is what the stock is reacting to. What do you think that is about . Is bezos listening to shareholders . The stock has underperformed in the last two or three quarters. We have seen this is the magnitude that we have like in the Third Quarter. Exactly. We might see a little bit of that. They are probably more sensitive to shareholders, but i do not expect jeff to change his course strategy. Our job is to tell people what happened at amazon last year. Susan and paul, lets bring up a list, guys, of what exactly jeff bezos did in 2014. I thought we were busy, but he was busy onehour delivery, free music streaming, a settop box, the production with woody allen, drone delivery vehicles and im not even mentioning everything else. He is getting into moviemaking business. The movie making business and he has to write down the phone. Susan, what you make of that list . I think they are trying to make amazon the place you go first for everything. It is very hard to do. He was really smart for a number of years looking at the areas that were close to their ecommerce business that he could get to and dominic. That is where dominate. That is where full full came from, and prime. He might have gotten in a little over his scheme with things that are not necessarily going to be amazon. On the other hand, google is maybe going to be punished for getting a little over there skis. You saw the miss, and there were certainly currency issues there. They are a global company. Clearly, with the issue is where their growth is coming from mobile usage and emerging markets. That is great for growth in users and overall usage however the challenge is it is hard to make money in those emerging markets and on mobile devices. Advertising rates are lower on mobile devices than they are on the pc. Like all copies, as they migrate from the desktop to mobile, it is great for growth and usage but the pricing and the monetization just is not what it was on the pc. All of the companies are doing with it, and certainly google is as their users migrate to mobile devices. Aol. Ahead of a certain trend god ahead of a certain trend Programmatic Advertising and that a lot of students in you growth quarter over that allowed us to continue growth quarter after and that is what allowed us to continue growth quarter over quarter. For a company that does not have a strong global strategy such as yahoo , they are playing catchup. What about twitter. Twitter is a huge mobile play. Yahoo is playing catchup and they have been punished. But in the last report their mobile ad revenue increased quite a bit, over 20 . It did. Marissa mayer is playing catchup, but they did make some inroads trying to catch up to the facebooks and googles of the world. Thank you, paul sweeney of Bloomberg Intelligence. Susan lyne stays with me through the hour. Much more ahead. So much for a boys club a series of new startups could give tech and makeover could give tech a makeover with women. That is exactly what susan is talking about. We will talk about that in a moment. It is 15 minutes past the hour. Lets look at our world News Headlines. The fate of two hostages held by the Islamic State not known at this hour. Japanese officials are in jordan looking to save the japanese journalist and jordanian pilot. In europe, the spanish economy defined expectations and posted its fastest growth in seven years. Gdp rose. 7 from the prior quarter and 2 on a yearearlier basis. They are believed to be due to increase Consumer Spending. A new ally in the skies Qatar Airways has bought a 10 stake in iag the Parent Company of british airways. That is the latest world news. We will have another update at 45 minutes past the hour. Down to an American Company that has set its sights on global domination. That is shake shack. From a hot dog stand in 2001 to 63 Stores Worldwide today, some in the middle east some might call shake shack story a viral story. We are joined by steve carell. Still with me as my guest host susan lyne. Steve, first to you look, you kind of compare were talking burgers versus this other thing im about to say, steve jobs and apple. You say danny meyer has had a Steve Jobsesque singular vision make something people want and they do not even know what they want, but when you make it they wanted and that is the gourmet burger that he has perfected. Thank you very much, and good morning. Danny and his group are dedicated people. They have come up with the right formula. They recognize they created a burger, french fries a shake, that blows people away as they tasted consume it. They do it with a staff of people that are not only highly motivated, but engaged with their customers. They wind up with a phenomenal formula. When people first go in they think what am i going to get out of this, and once they consume it, they recognize they just had something they did not expect. Ok so, i am going to be the diner dash down her here. Susan, downer here. Susan you have seen the lines around new york city. When i see them, i start to think is this another fad i mean, come on. They have been doing this for years now. Yet. One of the things that is interesting is it is evidence of the great creation story, and they started this business shake shack, as a food truck when Madison Square park was reopening, and everyone was excited about it lots of press. Danny was looked at as a savior with this little thing that ultimately ended up with long lines of people coming. By the time they started rolling it out more places, it was a story that everybody knew that you waited for one hour to get the hamburger that. Then you want to go and try it out. It was almost the story was unappetizing as a burger. Absolutely. Great story. Stephen, the unknown question is can Steven Carvell the unknown question is can shake shack create this outside of new york and outside of the country. Outside of new york there store sales are half of what they are here in new york. That is going to be a purely volume issue, of course. The density of the population is not nearly what manhattan is going to be, but they will still outpull any competitors. There are two parts to that in one part is, of course, just getting people in, but then growing sameunit sales, and once you hit a certainty shake shack is going to hit those peaks pretty quickly. That is their strength. The problem, the risk, will be held you keep the growth going . Right. How do you keep the growth going . Keep it going, keep down on your cost, and at the same time keep the quality, right steve . Right, those are supply issues. They will probably be less of a problem in the United States than globally. I think they will have a good handle on their supply chain and alternative routes for things that they need, but on the other hand, one of their big bonuses is their human resources. They just have a great teambuilding model. The people that work there are tremendously motivated. That helps to keep costs down. They do not have a lot of waste a lot of obviously, spoilage in their market, the Business Model. Yeah. I am not concerned about cost control given the supply chain and the team and the net estate. Globally, that is another issue. Steven carvell thank you so much, the dean. Susan lyne staying with me. A reminder, tune into danny meyer and andy joining me at 10 00 a. M. First. Bloomberg. You are watching in the loop , live on bloomberg television, and streaming on mobile and bloomberg. Com. Good morning, i am betty liu. Here is a look at the morning headlines. Fxcm wants to make sure no one can take control of the company they acquired. They are trying to claw back losses on the swiss franc. Jpmorgan made money, they did not. More bad news for beleaguered airbag maker toccata. It is the fifth u. S. Death listed linked to the safety devices. According to the lawsuit, the victim was killed due to a honda accord he bought in april. Costco spreads the wealth. They are getting rid of excess cash by report returning to . 2 billion to shareholders through a special dividend. The one time fivedollar share payout, is the first of its kind since december, 2012. In about two minutes we look at the latest raid on the strength of the economy as read on the strait of the economy as gdp numbers for the final quarter of 2014 are released. I jobs growth, high jobs growth, a foreign implement rate, a strong dollar is america rolling back . That is the question posed by the Bloomberg Economics editor in his cover story in bloomberg businessweek. Peter, is it . I am arguing yes. I am eager to see the numbers. I am sure people are glued to the Television Set to watch the gdp. They are glued to watching us. Things are looking good, partly in comparison to other companies. In the rest of the world, they are not looking so good. Europe is mired in the problem of deflation. Japan has good quarters here and there, like it probably had a good Fourth Quarter, but overall, deflation is going on there. You have special cases like russia, of course. Brazil is not doing well. One person i talked to adam from the Peterson Institute likened it to we are winning the least ugly contest. [laughter] all right, we are not beautiful, but not as ugly as the rest of them. Pretty much. The comeback has been wonderful. You cannot beat that and as you said in your intro, the economy is Strong Enough that the fed is starting to talk about raising Interest Rates and the same time the ecb is going into emergency measures that we dealt with years ago. They have been much slower to act, and that is the single biggest difference. I heard Larry Summers give a talk in davos where he said what the u. S. Did with a discontinuous process in 2009 thats that that set the stage for what we are now. Susan, you speak to a lot of investors. How confident are they to invest . You think they feel good, like the way peter is describing . I think they do. What is good is you see Consumer Spending coming back . That is the new piece of this. Investors have been confident for a while for a wild to consumer confidence, a sense that your jobs are going to come back income is going to grow, that is very new. Where did you see that . The consumer numbers show that. I do not want to be triumph is here. The u. S. Economy has a lot of problems. Median Household Income adjusted for inflation is lower now than it was in the year 2000. It is really unusual for the u. S. To go through a period of 15 years in actually going backward in terms of the purchasing power of the american household. It is a familiar story but a true story, it is rising to the top. I try to end on a positive note that says the u. S. Is a Creative Company that learns from its mistakes, and the hope is innovation can oh care that will bring prosperity cano kerr that will bring prosperity can occur that will bring prosperity. It will take a while. That is the hope, longer than we hoped, longer than we expected but eventually it said that should start accruing to the general public. The gdp numbers are out. Peter, i do not know about the eagle. 2. 6 is the first read. A little bit below expectations of 3 . Scott scarlet fu has some of these number is. The first gross best the first brush is the first brush is 2. 6 , lower than what analysts were looking or. They were anticipating 3 . Personal consumption came in higher than what economists had been looking for 4. 3 , when the consensus was for growth of 4 , and certainly a pickup from the prior quarter of 3. 2 . The adjustment for inflation no, 0. 04 . The number that people were fixated on the implement cost index, a broad measure of wage growth, and the Federal Reserve has really decided to scrutinize this because they want to see evidence of wage growth in the economy. Looking at that, 0. 6 matches the consensus. It is a little bit of a slowdown from the prior quarter read of 0. 7 . Scarlet fu, thank you so much. Scarlet fu at the breaking news desk. Peter, and susan, this is interesting it kind of goes into what you are saying, at least personal Spending Continues to rise, right . Economy might have been softer than expected, the Consumer Spending here, 4. 6 , that is not bad. No. Thats the number i am latching onto the number i am latching onto is the consumer index, which includes benefits as well as wages. It is probably a truer measure than the average Hourly Earnings number. To see that actually lower than the previous quarter is not strong pay growth. So, it is good if you are thinking that will postpone the fed raisi

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